Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

The loss of trust in the European Union during the great recession since 2007: The role of heuristics from the national political system

How can we explain the decline in support for the European Union (EU) and the idea of European integration after the onset of the great recession in the fall of 2007? Did the economic crisis and the austerity policies that the EU imposed—in tandem with the IMF—on several member countries help cause this drop? While there is some evidence for this direct effect of EU policies, we find that the most significant determinant of trust and support for the EU remains the level of trust in national governments. Based on cue theory and using concepts of diffuse and specific support, we find that support for the EU is derived from evaluations of national politics and policy, which Europeans know far better than the remote political system of the EU. This effect, however, is somewhat muted for those sophisticated Europeans that are more knowledgeable about the EU and are able to form opinions about it independently of the national contexts in which they live. We also find that the recent economic crisis has led to a discernible increase in the number of those who are disillusioned with politics both at the national and the supranational level. We analyze 133 national surveys from 27 EU countries by estimating a series of cross-classified multilevel logistic regression models.

Orthodontic therapy and gingival recession: a systematic review

To perform a systematic review on the effect of changes in incisor inclination owing to orthodontic treatment and the occurrence of gingival recession. PubMed, EMBASE Excerpta Medica and CENTRAL of the Cochrane Library were searched and a hand search was performed. From 1925 articles identified, 17 articles were finally included: six experimental animal studies and 11 retrospective clinical studies in humans. More proclined teeth compared with less proclined teeth or untreated teeth had in most studies a higher occurrence or severity of gingival recession. Contradictory results were found regarding a possible statistically significant correlation between the extent of gingival recession and the amount of incisor proclination during treatment, width of attached gingiva, hygiene, periodontal condition or thickness of the symphysis. There are no high quality animal or clinical studies on this topic. Movement of the incisors out of the osseous envelope of the alveolar process may be associated with a higher tendency for developing gingival recessions. The amount of recession found in studies with statistically significant differences between proclined and non-proclined incisors is small and the clinical consequence questionable. Because of the low level of evidence of the included studies, the results should be considered with caution. Further randomized clinical studies including clinical examination of hygiene and gingival condition before, during and after treatment are needed to clarify the effect of orthodontic changes in incisor inclination and the occurrence of gingival recession.

Dissecting Carotenoid from Structural Components of Carotenoid-Based Coloration: A Field Experiment with Great Tits (Parus major)

Carotenoid-based yellowish to red plumage colors are widespread visual signals used in sexual and social communication. To understand their ultimate signaling functions, it is important to identify the proximate mechanism promoting variation in coloration. Carotenoid-based colors combine structural and pigmentary components, but the importance of the contribution of structural components to variation in pigment-based colors (i.e., carotenoid-based colors) has been undervalued. In a field experiment with great tits (Parus major), we combined a brood size manipulation with a simultaneous carotenoid supplementation in order to disentangle the effects of carotenoid availability and early growth condition on different components of the yellow breast feathers. By defining independent measures of feather carotenoid content (absolute carotenoid chroma) and background structure (background reflectance), we demonstrate that environmental factors experienced during the nestling period, namely, early growth conditions and carotenoid availability, contribute independently to variation in yellow plumage coloration. While early growth conditions affected the background reflectance of the plumage, the availability of carotenoids affected the absolute carotenoid chroma, the peak of maximum ultraviolet reflectance, and the overall shape, that is, chromatic information of the reflectance curves. These findings demonstrate that environment-induced variation in background structure contributes significantly to intraspecific variation in yellow carotenoid-based plumage coloration.

Immune Activation Reduces Sperm Quality in the Great Tit

Mounting an immune response against pathogens incurs costs to organisms by its effects on important life-history traits, such as reproductive investment and survival. As shown recently, immune activation produces large amounts of reactive species and is suggested to induce oxidative stress. Sperm are highly susceptible to oxidative stress, which can negatively impact sperm function and ultimately male fertilizing efficiency. Here we address the question as to whether mounting an immune response affects sperm quality through the damaging effects of oxidative stress. It has been demonstrated recently in birds that carotenoid-based ornaments can be reliable signals of a male's ability to protect sperm from oxidative damage. In a full-factorial design, we immune-challenged great tit males while simultaneously increasing their vitamin E availability, and assessed the effect on sperm quality and oxidative damage. We conducted this experiment in a natural population and tested the males' response to the experimental treatment in relation to their carotenoid-based breast coloration, a condition-dependent trait. Immune activation induced a steeper decline in sperm swimming velocity, thus highlighting the potential costs of an induced immune response on sperm competitive ability and fertilizing efficiency. We found sperm oxidative damage to be negatively correlated with sperm swimming velocity. However, blood resistance to a free-radical attack (a measure of somatic antioxidant capacity) as well as plasma and sperm levels of oxidative damage (lipid peroxidation) remained unaffected, thus suggesting that the observed effect did not arise through oxidative stress. Towards the end of their breeding cycle, swimming velocity of sperm of more intensely colored males was higher, which has important implications for the evolution of mate choice and multiple mating in females because females may accrue both direct and indirect benefits by mating with males having better quality sperm.

Echocardiogram versus cardiac magnetic resonance imaging for assessing systolic function of subaortic right ventricle in adults with complete transposition of great arteries and previous atrial switch operation

In adults with congenital heart disease and a systemic right ventricle, subaortic ventricular systolic dysfunction is common. Echocardiographic assessment of systolic right ventricular (RV) function in these patients is important but challenging. The aim of the present study was to assess the reliability of conventional echocardiographic RV functional parameters to quantify the systolic performance of a subaortic right ventricle. We compared 56 contemporary echocardiograms and cardiac magnetic resonance studies in 37 adults, aged 26.9 ± 7.4 years, with complete transposition and a subaortic right ventricle. The fractional area change (FAC), lateral tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion, lateral RV systolic motion velocities by tissue Doppler, RV myocardial performance index, and the rate of systolic RV pressure increase (dp/dt) measured across the tricuspid regurgitant jet were assessed by echocardiography and correlated with the cardiac magnetic resonance-derived RV ejection fraction (EF). The mean RVEF was 48.0 ± 7.8%. FAC (r(2) = 0.206, p = 0.001) and dp/dt (r(2) = 0.173, p = 0.009) significantly correlated with RVEF, and the other nongeometric echocardiographic parameters failed to show a significant correlation with RVEF by linear regression analysis. FAC <33% and dp/dt <1,000 mm Hg/s identified a RVEF of <50% with a sensitivity of 77% and 69% and a specificity of 58% and 87%, respectively. In conclusion, in patients with a systemic right ventricle, routine nongeometric echocardiographic parameters of RV function correlated weakly with cardiac magnetic resonance-derived EF. RV FAC and the measurement of the rate of systolic RV pressure increase (dp/dt) should be preferentially used to assess systemic systolic function in adult patients with a subaortic right ventricle.