Global ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon

The global ocean is a significant sink for anthropogenic carbon (Cant), absorbing roughly a third of human CO2 emitted over the industrial period. Robust estimates of the magnitude and variability of the storage and distribution of Cant in the ocean are therefore important for understanding the human impact on climate. In this synthesis we review observational and model-based estimates of the storage and transport of Cant in the ocean. We pay particular attention to the uncertainties and potential biases inherent in different inference schemes. On a global scale, three data-based estimates of the distribution and inventory of Cant are now available. While the inventories are found to agree within their uncertainty, there are considerable differences in the spatial distribution. We also present a review of the progress made in the application of inverse and data assimilation techniques which combine ocean interior estimates of Cant with numerical ocean circulation models. Such methods are especially useful for estimating the air–sea flux and interior transport of Cant, quantities that are otherwise difficult to observe directly. However, the results are found to be highly dependent on modeled circulation, with the spread due to different ocean models at least as large as that from the different observational methods used to estimate Cant. Our review also highlights the importance of repeat measurements of hydrographic and biogeochemical parameters to estimate the storage of Cant on decadal timescales in the presence of the variability in circulation that is neglected by other approaches. Data-based Cant estimates provide important constraints on forward ocean models, which exhibit both broad similarities and regional errors relative to the observational fields. A compilation of inventories of Cant gives us a "best" estimate of the global ocean inventory of anthropogenic carbon in 2010 of 155 ± 31 PgC (±20% uncertainty). This estimate includes a broad range of values, suggesting that a combination of approaches is necessary in order to achieve a robust quantification of the ocean sink of anthropogenic CO2.

Ocean (De)oxygenation Across the Last Deglaciation: Insights for the Future

Anthropogenic warming is expected to drive oxygen out of the ocean as the water temperature rises and the rate of exchange between subsurface waters and the atmosphere slows due to enhanced upper ocean density stratification. Observations from recent decades are tantalizingly consistent with this prediction, though these changes remain subtle in the face of natural variability. Earth system model projections unanimously predict a long-term decrease in the global ocean oxygen inventory, but show regional discrepancies, particularly in the most oxygen-depleted waters, owing to the complex interplay between oxygen supply pathways and oxygen consumption. The geological record provides an orthogonal perspective, showing how the oceanic oxygen content varied in response to prior episodes of climate change. These past changes were much slower than the current, anthropogenic change, but can help to appraise sensitivities, and point toward potentially dominant mechanisms of change. Consistent with the model projections, marine sediments recorded an overall expansion of low-oxygen waters in the upper ocean as it warmed at the end of the last ice age. This expansion was not linearly related with temperature, though, but reached a deoxygenation extreme midway through the warming. Meanwhile, the deep ocean became better oxygenated, opposite the general expectation. These observations require that significant changes in apparent oxygen utilization occurred, suggesting that they will also be important in the future.

The role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2

We compare modeled oceanic carbon uptake in response to pulse CO2 emissions using a suite of global ocean models and Earth system models. In response to a CO2 pulse emission of 590 Pg C (corresponding to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 from 278 to 556 ppm), the fraction of CO2 emitted that is absorbed by the ocean is: 37±8%, 56±10%, and 81±4% (model mean ±2σ ) in year 30, 100, and 1000 after the emission pulse, respectively. Modeled oceanic uptake of pulse CO2 on timescales from decades to about a century is strongly correlated with simulated present-day uptake of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and CO2 across all models, while the amount of pulse CO2 absorbed by the ocean from a century to a millennium is strongly correlated with modeled radiocarbon in the deep Southern and Pacific Ocean. However, restricting the analysis to models that are capable of reproducing observations within uncertainty, the correlation is generally much weaker. The rates of surface-to-deep ocean transport are determined for individual models from the instantaneous doubling CO2 simulations, and they are used to calculate oceanic CO2 uptake in response to pulse CO2 emissions of different sizes pulses of 1000 and 5000 Pg C. These results are compared with simulated oceanic uptake of CO2 by a number of models simulations with the coupling of climate-ocean carbon cycle and without it. This comparison demonstrates that the impact of different ocean transport rates across models on oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is of similar magnitude as that of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in a single model, emphasizing the important role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2.

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments1 places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond2, 3, 4. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise5, ocean acidification6, 7 and net primary production on land8, 9. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies10, climate sensitivity11 and carbon cycle feedbacks12, 13 along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community14, 15, 16, 17 to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

Time of emergence of trends in ocean biogeochemistry

For the detection of climate change, not only the magnitude of a trend signal is of significance. An essential issue is the time period required by the trend to be detectable in the first place. An illustrative measure for this is time of emergence (ToE), that is, the point in time when a signal finally emerges from the background noise of natural variability. We investigate the ToE of trend signals in different biogeochemical and physical surface variables utilizing a multi-model ensemble comprising simulations of 17 Earth system models (ESMs). We find that signals in ocean biogeochemical variables emerge on much shorter timescales than the physical variable sea surface temperature (SST). The ToE patterns of pCO2 and pH are spatially very similar to DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon), yet the trends emerge much faster – after roughly 12 yr for the majority of the global ocean area, compared to between 10 and 30 yr for DIC. ToE of 45–90 yr are even larger for SST. In general, the background noise is of higher importance in determining ToE than the strength of the trend signal. In areas with high natural variability, even strong trends both in the physical climate and carbon cycle system are masked by variability over decadal timescales. In contrast to the trend, natural variability is affected by the seasonal cycle. This has important implications for observations, since it implies that intra-annual variability could question the representativeness of irregularly sampled seasonal measurements for the entire year and, thus, the interpretation of observed trends.

An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the chemical, physical and biological processes in the oceans

The 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states with very high certainty that anthropogenic emissions have caused measurable changes in the physical ocean environment. These changes are summarized with special focus on those that are predicted to have the strongest, most direct effects on ocean biological processes; namely, ocean warming and associated phenomena (including stratification and sea level rise) as well as deoxygenation and ocean acidification. The biological effects of these changes are then discussed for microbes (including phytoplankton), plants, animals, warm and cold-water corals, and ecosystems. The IPCC AR5 highlighted several areas related to both the physical and biological processes that required further research. As a rapidly developing field, there have been many pertinent studies published since the cut off dates for the AR5, which have increased our understanding of the processes at work. This study undertook an extensive review of recently published literature to update the findings of the AR5 and provide a synthesized review on the main issues facing future oceans. The level of detail provided in the AR5 and subsequent work provided a basis for constructing projections of the state of ocean ecosystems in 2100 under two the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and 8.5. Finally the review highlights notable additions, clarifications and points of departure from AR5 provided by subsequent studies.

A Maximum Radius for Habitable Planets

We compute the maximum radius a planet can have in order to fulfill two constraints that are likely necessary conditions for habitability: 1- surface temperature and pressure compatible with the existence of liquid water, and 2- no ice layer at the bottom of a putative global ocean, that would prevent the operation of the geologic carbon cycle to operate. We demonstrate that, above a given radius, these two constraints cannot be met: in the Super-Earth mass range (1-12 M-earth), the overall maximum that a planet can have varies between 1.8 and 2.3 R-earth. This radius is reduced when considering planets with higher Fe/Si ratios, and taking into account irradiation effects on the structure of the gas envelope.