Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years

The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data–model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data–model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches.

A prediction model for personal radio frequency electromagnetic field exposure

Radio frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) in our daily life are caused by numerous sources such as fixed site transmitters (e.g. mobile phone base stations) or indoor devices (e.g. cordless phones). The objective of this study was to develop a prediction model which can be used to predict mean RF-EMF exposure from different sources for a large study population in epidemiological research. We collected personal RF-EMF exposure measurements of 166 volunteers from Basel, Switzerland, by means of portable exposure meters, which were carried during one week. For a validation study we repeated exposure measurements of 31 study participants 21 weeks after the measurements of the first week on average. These second measurements were not used for the model development. We used two data sources as exposure predictors: 1) a questionnaire on potentially exposure relevant characteristics and behaviors and 2) modeled RF-EMF from fixed site transmitters (mobile phone base stations, broadcast transmitters) at the participants' place of residence using a geospatial propagation model. Relevant exposure predictors, which were identified by means of multiple regression analysis, were the modeled RF-EMF at the participants' home from the propagation model, housing characteristics, ownership of communication devices (wireless LAN, mobile and cordless phones) and behavioral aspects such as amount of time spent in public transports. The proportion of variance explained (R2) by the final model was 0.52. The analysis of the agreement between calculated and measured RF-EMF showed a sensitivity of 0.56 and a specificity of 0.95 (cut-off: 90th percentile). In the validation study, the sensitivity and specificity of the model were 0.67 and 0.96, respectively. We could demonstrate that it is feasible to model personal RF-EMF exposure. Most importantly, our validation study suggests that the model can be used to assess average exposure over several months.

Capacity building in the use of geospatial tools for natural resource management in Tajikistan: Final Report

The Swiss Swiss Consultant Trust Fund (CTF) support covered the period from July to December 2007 and comprised four main tasks: (1) Analysis of historic land degradation trends in the four watersheds of Zerafshan, Surkhob, Toirsu, and Vanj; (2) Translation of standard CDE GIS training materials into Russian and Tajik to enable local government staff and other specialists to use geospatial data and tools; (3) Demonstration of geospatial tools that show land degradation trends associated with land use and vegetative cover data in the project areas, (4) Preliminary training of government staff in using appropriate data, including existing information, global datasets, inexpensive satellite imagery and other datasets and webbased visualization tools like spatial data viewers, etc. The project allowed building of local awareness of, and skills in, up-to-date, inexpensive, easy-to-use GIS technologies, data sources, and applications relevant to natural resource management and especially to sustainable land management. In addition to supporting the implementation of the World Bank technical assistance activity to build capacity in the use of geospatial tools for natural resource management, the Swiss CTF support also aimed at complementing the Bank supervision work on the ongoing Community Agriculture and Watershed Management Project (CAWMP).

Modelling zero-inflated count data when exposure varies: with an application to tumor counts)

This paper is concerned with the analysis of zero-inflated count data when time of exposure varies. It proposes a modified zero-inflated count data model where the probability of an extra zero is derived from an underlying duration model with Weibull hazard rate. The new model is compared to the standard Poisson model with logit zero inflation in an application to the effect of treatment with thiotepa on the number of new bladder tumors.

Capacity Building in the Use of Geospatial Tools for Natural Resource Management in Tajikistan: Inception report

The sustainable management of natural resources is a key issue for sustainable development of a poor, mountainous country such as Tajikistan. In order to strengthen its agricultural and infrastructural development efforts and alleviate poverty in rural areas, spatial information and analysis are of crucial importance to improve priority setting and decision making efficiency. However, poor access to geospatial data and tools, and limited capacity in their use has greatly constrained the ability of governmental institutions to effectively assess, plan, and monitor natural resources management. The Centre for Development and Environment (CDE) has thus been mandated by the World Bank Group to provide adequate technical support to the Community Agriculture and Watershed Management Project (CAWMP). This support consists of a spatial database on soil degradation trends in 4 watersheds, capacity development in and awareness creation about geographic information technology and a spatial data exchange hub for natural resources management in Tajikistan. CDE’s support has started in July 2007 and will last until December 2007 with a possible extension in 2008.

Atmospheric CO₂ response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability

Tropical explosive volcanism is one of the most important natural factors that significantly impact the climate system and the carbon cycle on annual to multi-decadal time scales. The three largest explosive eruptions in the last 50�years�Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo�occurred in spring/summer in conjunction with El Niño events and left distinct negative signals in the observational temperature and CO2 records. However, confounding factors such as seasonal variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may obscure the forcing-response relationship. We determine for the first time the extent to which initial conditions, i.e., season and phase of the ENSO, and internal variability influence the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to volcanic forcing and how this affects estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Ensemble simulations with the Earth System Model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon) predict that the atmospheric CO2 response is �60 larger when a volcanic eruption occurs during El Niño and in winter than during La Niña conditions. Our simulations suggest that the Pinatubo eruption contributed 11�±�6 to the 25�Pg terrestrial carbon sink inferred over the decade 1990�1999 and �2�±�1 to the 22�Pg oceanic carbon sink. In contrast to recent claims, trends in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon cannot be detected when accounting for the decadal-scale influence of explosive volcanism and related uncertainties. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of natural variability in the carbon cycle for interpretation of observations and for data-model intercomparison.

Development of dendritic tonic GABAergic inhibition regulates excitability and plasticity in CA1 pyramidal neurons

Synaptic plasticity rules change during development: while hippocampal synapses can be potentiated by a single action potential pairing protocol in young neurons, mature neurons require burst firing to induce synaptic potentiation. An essential component for spike timing-dependent plasticity is the backpropagating action potential (BAP). BAP along the dendrites can be modulated by morphology and ion channel composition, both of which change during late postnatal development. However it is unclear whether these dendritic changes can explain the developmental changes in synaptic plasticity induction rules. Here, we show that tonic GABAergic inhibition regulates dendritic action potential backpropagation in adolescent but not pre-adolescent CA1 pyramidal neurons. These developmental changes in tonic inhibition also altered the induction threshold for spike timing-dependent plasticity in adolescent neurons. This GABAergic regulatory effect upon backpropagation is restricted to distal regions of apical dendrites (>200 μm) and mediated by α5-containing GABA(A) receptors. Direct dendritic recordings demonstrate α5-mediated tonic GABA(A) currents in adolescent neurons which can modulate backpropagating action potentials. These developmental modulations in dendritic excitability could not be explained by concurrent changes in dendritic morphology. To explain our data, model simulations propose a distally-increasing or localized distal expression of dendritic α5 tonic inhibition in mature neurons. Overall, our results demonstrate that dendritic integration and plasticity in more mature dendrites are significantly altered by tonic α5 inhibition in a dendritic region-specific and developmentally-regulated manner.

The geography of large-scale land acquisitions: Analysing socio-ecological patterns of target contexts in the global South

This paper analyses local geographical contexts targeted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (>200 ha per deal) in order to understand how emerging patterns of socio-ecological characteristics can be related to processes of large-scale foreign investment in land. Using a sample of 139 land deals georeferenced with high spatial accuracy, we first analyse their target contexts in terms of land cover, population density, accessibility, and indicators for agricultural potential. Three distinct patterns emerge from the analysis: densely populated and easily accessible croplands (35% of land deals); remote forestlands with lower population densities (34% of land deals); and moderately populated and moderately accessible shrub- or grasslands (26% of land deals). These patterns are consistent with processes described in the relevant case study literature, and they each involve distinct types of stakeholders and associated competition over land. We then repeat the often-cited analysis that postulates a link between land investments and target countries with abundant so-called “idle” or “marginal” lands as measured by yield gap and available suitable but uncultivated land; our methods differ from the earlier approach, however, in that we examine local context (10-km radius) rather than countries as a whole. The results show that earlier findings are disputable in terms of concepts, methods, and contents. Further, we reflect on methodologies for exploring linkages between socioecological patterns and land investment processes. Improving and enhancing large datasets of georeferenced land deals is an important next step; at the same time, careful choice of the spatial scale of analysis is crucial for ensuring compatibility between the spatial accuracy of land deal locations and the resolution of available geospatial data layers. Finally, we argue that new approaches and methods must be developed to empirically link socio-ecological patterns in target contexts to key determinants of land investment processes. This would help to improve the validity and the reach of our findings as an input for evidence-informed policy debates.

Synergistic User <-> Context Analytics

Various avours of a new research field on (socio-)physical or personal analytics have emerged, with the goal of deriving semantically-rich insights from people's low-level physical sensing combined with their (online) social interactions. In this paper, we argue for more comprehensive data sources, including environmental (e.g. weather, infrastructure) and application-specific data, to better capture the interactions between users and their context, in addition to those among users. To illustrate our proposed concept of synergistic user <-> context analytics, we first provide some example use cases. Then, we present our ongoing work towards a synergistic analytics platform: a testbed, based on mobile crowdsensing and the Internet of Things (IoT), a data model for representing the different sources of data and their connections, and a prediction engine for analyzing the data and producing insights.

Computational fluid dynamics modelling in cardiovascular medicine.

This paper reviews the methods, benefits and challenges associated with the adoption and translation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling within cardiovascular medicine. CFD, a specialist area of mathematics and a branch of fluid mechanics, is used routinely in a diverse range of safety-critical engineering systems, which increasingly is being applied to the cardiovascular system. By facilitating rapid, economical, low-risk prototyping, CFD modelling has already revolutionised research and development of devices such as stents, valve prostheses, and ventricular assist devices. Combined with cardiovascular imaging, CFD simulation enables detailed characterisation of complex physiological pressure and flow fields and the computation of metrics which cannot be directly measured, for example, wall shear stress. CFD models are now being translated into clinical tools for physicians to use across the spectrum of coronary, valvular, congenital, myocardial and peripheral vascular diseases. CFD modelling is apposite for minimally-invasive patient assessment. Patient-specific (incorporating data unique to the individual) and multi-scale (combining models of different length- and time-scales) modelling enables individualised risk prediction and virtual treatment planning. This represents a significant departure from traditional dependence upon registry-based, population-averaged data. Model integration is progressively moving towards 'digital patient' or 'virtual physiological human' representations. When combined with population-scale numerical models, these models have the potential to reduce the cost, time and risk associated with clinical trials. The adoption of CFD modelling signals a new era in cardiovascular medicine. While potentially highly beneficial, a number of academic and commercial groups are addressing the associated methodological, regulatory, education- and service-related challenges.