Multi-Model Data Fusion to Improve an Early Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events

Correct predictions of future blood glucose levels in individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) can be used to provide early warning of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events and thus to improve the patient's safety. To increase prediction accuracy and efficiency, various approaches have been proposed which combine multiple predictors to produce superior results compared to single predictors. Three methods for model fusion are presented and comparatively assessed. Data from 23 T1D subjects under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy were used in two adaptive data-driven models (an autoregressive model with output correction - cARX, and a recurrent neural network - RNN). Data fusion techniques based on i) Dempster-Shafer Evidential Theory (DST), ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA), and iii) Genetic Programming (GP) were used to merge the complimentary performances of the prediction models. The fused output is used in a warning algorithm to issue alarms of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events. The fusion schemes showed improved performance with lower root mean square errors, lower time lags, and higher correlation. In the warning algorithm, median daily false alarms (DFA) of 0.25%, and 100% correct alarms (CA) were obtained for both event types. The detection times (DT) before occurrence of events were 13.0 and 12.1 min respectively for hypo-/hyperglycemic events. Compared to the cARX and RNN models, and a linear fusion of the two, the proposed fusion schemes represents a significant improvement.

Genetic variations in IL28B and allergic disease in children

Environmental changes affecting the relationship between the developing immune system and microbial exposure have been implicated in the epidemic rise of allergic disease in developed countries. While early developmental differences in T cell function are well-recognised, there is now emerging evidence that this is related to developmental differences in innate immune function. In this study we sought to examine if differences associated with innate immunity contribute to the altered immune programming recognised in allergic children. Here, we describe for the first time, the association of carriage of the T allele of the tagging single nucleotide polymorphism rs12979860 3 kb upstream of IL28B, encoding the potent innate immune modulator type III interferon lambda (IFN-λ3), and allergy in children (p = 0.004; OR 4.56). Strikingly, the association between rs12979860 genotype and allergic disease is enhanced in girls. Furthermore, carriage of the T allele at rs12979860 correlates with differences in the pro-inflammatory profile during the first five years of life suggesting this contributes to the key differences in subsequent innate immune development in children who develop allergic disease. In the context of rising rates of disease, these immunologic differences already present at birth imply very early interaction between genetic predisposition and prenatal environmental influences.

Fetal programming and epigenetic mechanisms in arterial hypertension.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW To provide an overview of available evidence of the potential role of epigenetics in the pathogenesis of hypertension and vascular dysfunction. RECENT FINDINGS Arterial hypertension is a highly heritable condition. Surprisingly, however, genetic variants only explain a tiny fraction of the phenotypic variation and the term 'missing heritability' has been coined to describe this phenomenon. Recent evidence suggests that phenotypic alteration that is unrelated to changes in DNA sequence (thereby escaping detection by classic genetic methodology) offers a potential explanation. Here, we present some basic information on epigenetics and review recent work consistent with the hypothesis of epigenetically induced arterial hypertension. SUMMARY New technologies that enable the rigorous assessment of epigenetic changes and their phenotypic consequences may provide the basis for explaining the missing heritability of arterial hypertension and offer new possibilities for treatment and/or prevention.