Validation of statistical shape model based reconstruction of the proximal femur - A morphology study

Seventeen bones (sixteen cadaveric bones and one plastic bone) were used to validate a method for reconstructing a surface model of the proximal femur from 2D X-ray radiographs and a statistical shape model that was constructed from thirty training surface models. Unlike previously introduced validation studies, where surface-based distance errors were used to evaluate the reconstruction accuracy, here we propose to use errors measured based on clinically relevant morphometric parameters. For this purpose, a program was developed to robustly extract those morphometric parameters from the thirty training surface models (training population), from the seventeen surface models reconstructed from X-ray radiographs, and from the seventeen ground truth surface models obtained either by a CT-scan reconstruction method or by a laser-scan reconstruction method. A statistical analysis was then performed to classify the seventeen test bones into two categories: normal cases and outliers. This classification step depends on the measured parameters of the particular test bone. In case all parameters of a test bone were covered by the training population's parameter ranges, this bone is classified as normal bone, otherwise as outlier bone. Our experimental results showed that statistically there was no significant difference between the morphometric parameters extracted from the reconstructed surface models of the normal cases and those extracted from the reconstructed surface models of the outliers. Therefore, our statistical shape model based reconstruction technique can be used to reconstruct not only the surface model of a normal bone but also that of an outlier bone.

An Urn Model for Cascading Failures on a Lattice

A cascading failure is a failure in a system of interconnected parts, in which the breakdown of one element can lead to the subsequent collapse of the others. The aim of this paper is to introduce a simple combinatorial model for the study of cascading failures. In particular, having in mind particle systems and Markov random fields, we take into consideration a network of interacting urns displaced over a lattice. Every urn is Pólya-like and its reinforcement matrix is not only a function of time (time contagion) but also of the behavior of the neighboring urns (spatial contagion), and of a random component, which can represent either simple fate or the impact of exogenous factors. In this way a non-trivial dependence structure among the urns is built, and it is used to study default avalanches over the lattice. Thanks to its flexibility and its interesting probabilistic properties, the given construction may be used to model different phenomena characterized by cascading failures such as power grids and financial networks.

Generalization of amygdala LTP and conditioned fear in the absence of presynaptic inhibition

Pavlovian fear conditioning, a simple form of associative learning, is thought to involve the induction of associative, NMDA receptor-dependent long-term potentiation (LTP) in the lateral amygdala. Using a combined genetic and electrophysiological approach, we show here that lack of a specific GABA(B) receptor subtype, GABA(B(1a,2)), unmasks a nonassociative, NMDA receptor-independent form of presynaptic LTP at cortico-amygdala afferents. Moreover, the level of presynaptic GABA(B(1a,2)) receptor activation, and hence the balance between associative and nonassociative forms of LTP, can be dynamically modulated by local inhibitory activity. At the behavioral level, genetic loss of GABA(B(1a)) results in a generalization of conditioned fear to nonconditioned stimuli. Our findings indicate that presynaptic inhibition through GABA(B(1a,2)) receptors serves as an activity-dependent constraint on the induction of homosynaptic plasticity, which may be important to prevent the generalization of conditioned fear.

Closed-loop control of mean arterial blood pressure during surgery with alfentanil: clinical evaluation of a novel model-based predictive controller

BACKGROUND: In contrast to hypnosis, there is no surrogate parameter for analgesia in anesthetized patients. Opioids are titrated to suppress blood pressure response to noxious stimulation. The authors evaluated a novel model predictive controller for closed-loop administration of alfentanil using mean arterial blood pressure and predicted plasma alfentanil concentration (Cp Alf) as input parameters. METHODS: The authors studied 13 healthy patients scheduled to undergo minor lumbar and cervical spine surgery. After induction with propofol, alfentanil, and mivacurium and tracheal intubation, isoflurane was titrated to maintain the Bispectral Index at 55 (+/- 5), and the alfentanil administration was switched from manual to closed-loop control. The controller adjusted the alfentanil infusion rate to maintain the mean arterial blood pressure near the set-point (70 mmHg) while minimizing the Cp Alf toward the set-point plasma alfentanil concentration (Cp Alfref) (100 ng/ml). RESULTS: Two patients were excluded because of loss of arterial pressure signal and protocol violation. The alfentanil infusion was closed-loop controlled for a mean (SD) of 98.9 (1.5)% of presurgery time and 95.5 (4.3)% of surgery time. The mean (SD) end-tidal isoflurane concentrations were 0.78 (0.1) and 0.86 (0.1) vol%, the Cp Alf values were 122 (35) and 181 (58) ng/ml, and the Bispectral Index values were 51 (9) and 52 (4) before surgery and during surgery, respectively. The mean (SD) absolute deviations of mean arterial blood pressure were 7.6 (2.6) and 10.0 (4.2) mmHg (P = 0.262), and the median performance error, median absolute performance error, and wobble were 4.2 (6.2) and 8.8 (9.4)% (P = 0.002), 7.9 (3.8) and 11.8 (6.3)% (P = 0.129), and 14.5 (8.4) and 5.7 (1.2)% (P = 0.002) before surgery and during surgery, respectively. A post hoc simulation showed that the Cp Alfref decreased the predicted Cp Alf compared with mean arterial blood pressure alone. CONCLUSION: The authors' controller has a similar set-point precision as previous hypnotic controllers and provides adequate alfentanil dosing during surgery. It may help to standardize opioid dosing in research and may be a further step toward a multiple input-multiple output controller.

Spastin in the human and mouse central nervous system with special reference to its expression in the hippocampus of mouse pilocarpine model of status epilepticus and temporal lobe epilepsy

In the present in situ hybridization and immunocytochemical studies in the mouse central nervous system (CNS), a strong expression of spastin mRNA and protein was found in Purkinje cells and dentate nucleus in the cerebellum, in hippocampal principal cells and hilar neurons, in amygdala, substantia nigra, striatum, in the motor nuclei of the cranial nerves and in different layers of the cerebral cortex except piriform and entorhinal cortices where only neurons in layer II were strongly stained. Spastin protein and mRNA were weakly expressed in most of the thalamic nuclei. In selected human brain regions such as the cerebral cortex, cerebellum, hippocampus, amygdala, substania nigra and striatum, similar results were obtained. Electron microscopy showed spastin immunopositive staining in the cytoplasma, dendrites, axon terminals and nucleus. In the mouse pilocarpine model of status epilepticus and subsequent temporal lobe epilepsy, spastin expression disappeared in hilar neurons as early as at 2h during pilocarpine induced status epilepticus, and never recovered. At 7 days and 2 months after pilocarpine induced status epilepticus, spastin expression was down-regulated in granule cells in the dentate gyrus, but induced expression was found in reactive astrocytes. The demonstration of widespread distribution of spastin in functionally different brain regions in the present study may provide neuroanatomical basis to explain why different neurological, psychological disorders and cognitive impairment occur in patients with spastin mutation. Down-regulation or loss of spastin expression in hilar neurons may be related to their degeneration and may therefore initiate epileptogenetic events, leading to temporal lobe epilepsy.

Modelling the results of health promotion activities in Switzerland: development of the Swiss Model for Outcome Classification in Health Promotion and Prevention

This paper describes the Model for Outcome Classification in Health Promotion and Prevention adopted by Health Promotion Switzerland (SMOC, Swiss Model for Outcome Classification) and the process of its development. The context and method of model development, and the aim and objectives of the model are outlined. Preliminary experience with application of the model in evaluation planning and situation analysis is reported. On the basis of an extensive literature search, the model is situated within the wider international context of similar efforts to meet the challenge of developing tools to assess systematically the activities of health promotion and prevention.

Pharmacodynamics of antibiotics in the therapy of meningitis: infection model observations

Detailed studies of pharmacodynamic principles relevant to the therapy of bacterial meningitis are difficult to perform in man, while the rabbit model of bacterial meningitis has proved to be extremely valuable and has led to insights that appear relevant for the treatment of humans. Most importantly in the light of the restricted penetration of antibiotics into the CSF, animal studies have shown that in meningitis there is a dose-response curve between the CSF concentrations achieved by antibiotics and their bactericidal activity. This appears to be true for all classes of antibiotics thus far examined, including the beta-lactams, which do not show such a dose-response behaviour in other infections. Only CSF concentrations that exceed the MBC of the infecting organism by at least 10-30-fold achieve consistent and rapid bactericidal activity. Such rapid bactericidal activity is a requirement for successful therapy with beta-lactams and can be impaired with certain antibiotics by the specific conditions in infected CSF (protein content; acidic pH; slow-growing bacteria). However, rapid antibiotic killing of the infecting organisms may not be without adverse effects either. Some antibiotics, particularly beta-lactams lead to the brisk liberation of bacterial cell wall components (e.g. endotoxin, in the case of Gram-negative organisms) which have an inflammatory effect on the host and can lead to a temporary deterioration of the disease. Dexamethasone, when administered with the antibiotic, can prevent some of the adverse effects of rapid bacterial lysis.

Direct and indirect associations between plant species richness and productivity in grasslands: regional differences preclude simple generalization of productivity-biodiversity relationships

Plant species richness of permanent grasslands has often been found to be significantly associated with productivity. Concentrations of nutrients in biomass can give further insight into these productivity- plant species richness relationships, e.g. by reflecting land use or soil characteristics. However, the consistency of such relationships across different regions has rarely been taken into account, which might significantly compromise our potential for generalization. We recorded plant species richness and measured above-ground biomass and concentrations of nutrients in biomass in 295 grasslands in three regions in Germany that differ in soil and climatic conditions. Structural equation modelling revealed that nutrient concentrations were mostly indirectly associated with plant species richness via biomass production. However, negative associations between the concentrations of different nutrients and biomass and plant species richness differed considerably among regions. While in two regions, more than 40% of the variation in plant species richness could be attributed to variation in biomass, K, P, and to some degree also N concentrations, in the third region only 15% of the variation could be explained in this way. Generally, highest plant species richness was recorded in grasslands where N and P were co-limiting plant growth, in contrast to N or K (co-) limitation. But again, this pattern was not recorded in the third region. While for two regions land-use intensity and especially the application of fertilizers are suggested to be the main drivers causing the observed negative associations with productivity, in the third region the little variance accounted for, low species richness and weak relationships implied that former intensive grassland management, ongoing mineralization of peat and fluctuating water levels in fen grasslands have overruled effects of current land-use intensity and productivity. Finally, we conclude that regional replication is of major importance for studies seeking general insights into productivity-diversity relationships.

Potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients: derivation and validation of a prediction model

IMPORTANCE Because effective interventions to reduce hospital readmissions are often expensive to implement, a score to predict potentially avoidable readmissions may help target the patients most likely to benefit. OBJECTIVE To derive and internally validate a prediction model for potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients using administrative and clinical data readily available prior to discharge. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Academic medical center in Boston, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS All patient discharges from any medical services between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions to 3 hospitals of the Partners HealthCare network were identified using a validated computerized algorithm based on administrative data (SQLape). A simple score was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with two-thirds of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-third as the validation cohort. RESULTS Among 10 731 eligible discharges, 2398 discharges (22.3%) were followed by a 30-day readmission, of which 879 (8.5% of all discharges) were identified as potentially avoidable. The prediction score identified 7 independent factors, referred to as the HOSPITAL score: h emoglobin at discharge, discharge from an o ncology service, s odium level at discharge, p rocedure during the index admission, i ndex t ype of admission, number of a dmissions during the last 12 months, and l ength of stay. In the validation set, 26.7% of the patients were classified as high risk, with an estimated potentially avoidable readmission risk of 18.0% (observed, 18.2%). The HOSPITAL score had fair discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.71) and had good calibration. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This simple prediction model identifies before discharge the risk of potentially avoidable 30-day readmission in medical patients. This score has potential to easily identify patients who may need more intensive transitional care interventions.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.