Detecting offsets in GPS time series: first results from the Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiment

The accuracy of Global Positioning System (GPS) time series is degraded by the presence of offsets. To assess the effectiveness of methods that detect and remove these offsets, we designed and managed the Detection of Offsets in GPS Experiment. We simulated time series that mimicked realistic GPS data consisting of a velocity component, offsets, white and flicker noises (1/f spectrum noises) composed in an additive model. The data set was made available to the GPS analysis community without revealing the offsets, and several groups conducted blind tests with a range of detection approaches. The results show that, at present, manual methods (where offsets are hand picked) almost always give better results than automated or semi‒automated methods (two automated methods give quite similar velocity bias as the best manual solutions). For instance, the fifth percentile range (5% to 95%) in velocity bias for automated approaches is equal to 4.2 mm/year (most commonly ±0.4 mm/yr from the truth), whereas it is equal to 1.8 mm/yr for the manual solutions (most commonly 0.2 mm/yr from the truth). The magnitude of offsets detectable by manual solutions is smaller than for automated solutions, with the smallest detectable offset for the best manual and automatic solutions equal to 5 mm and 8 mm, respectively. Assuming the simulated time series noise levels are representative of real GPS time series, robust geophysical interpretation of individual site velocities lower than 0.2–0.4 mm/yr is therefore certainly not robust, although a limit of nearer 1 mm/yr would be a more conservative choice. Further work to improve offset detection in GPS coordinates time series is required before we can routinely interpret sub‒mm/yr velocities for single GPS stations.

Age-specific and sex-specific weight gain norms to monitor antiretroviral therapy in children in low-income and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND Viral load and CD4% are often not available in resource-limited settings for monitoring children's responses to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We aimed to construct normative curves for weight gain at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months following initiation of ART in children, and to assess the association between poor weight gain and subsequent responses to ART. DESIGN Analysis of data from HIV-infected children younger than 10 years old from African and Asian clinics participating in the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS. METHODS The generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape was used to construct normative percentile curves for weight gain at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months following ART initiation. Cox proportional models were used to assess the association between lower percentiles (< 50th) of weight gain distribution at the different time points and subsequent death, virological suppression, and virological failure. RESULTS Among 7173 children from five regions of the world, 45% were underweight at baseline. Weight gain below the 50th percentile at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months of ART was associated with increased risk of death, independent of baseline characteristics. Poor weight gain was not associated with increased hazards of virological suppression or virological failure. CONCLUSION Monitoring weight gain on ART using age-specific and sex-specific normative curves specifically developed for HIV-infected children on ART is a simple, rapid, sustainable tool that can aid in the identification of children who are at increased risk of death in the first year of ART.

Intermittent spike-wave dynamics in a heterogeneous, spatially extended neural mass model

Generalised epileptic seizures are frequently accompanied by sudden, reversible transitions from low amplitude, irregular background activity to high amplitude, regular spike-wave discharges (SWD) in the EEG. The underlying mechanisms responsible for SWD generation and for the apparently spontaneous transitions to SWD and back again are still not fully understood. Specifically, the role of spatial cortico-cortical interactions in ictogenesis is not well studied. We present a macroscopic, neural mass model of a cortical column which includes two distinct time scales of inhibition. This model can produce both an oscillatory background and a pathological SWD rhythm. We demonstrate that coupling two of these cortical columns can lead to a bistability between out-of-phase, low amplitude background dynamics and in-phase, high amplitude SWD activity. Stimuli can cause state-dependent transitions from background into SWD. In an extended local area of cortex, spatial heterogeneities in a model parameter can lead to spontaneous reversible transitions from a desynchronised background to synchronous SWD due to intermittency. The deterministic model is therefore capable of producing absence seizure-like events without any time dependent adjustment of model parameters. The emergence of such mechanisms due to spatial coupling demonstrates the importance of spatial interactions in modelling ictal dynamics, and in the study of ictogenesis.

Everolimus augments the effects of sorafenib in a syngeneic orthotopic model of hepatocellular carcinoma

Sorafenib targets the Raf/mitogen-activated protein kinase, VEGF, and platelet-derived growth factor pathways and prolongs survival patients in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Everolimus inhibits the mammalian target of rapamycin, a kinase overactive in HCC. To investigate whether the antitumor effects of these agents are additive, we compared a combined and sequential treatment regimen of everolimus and sorafenib with monotherapy. After hepatic implantation of Morris Hepatoma (MH) cells, rats were randomly allocated to everolimus (5 mg/kg, 2×/week), sorafenib (7.5 mg/kg/d), combined everolimus and sorafenib, sequential sorafenib (2 weeks) then everolimus (3 weeks), or control groups. MRI quantified tumor volumes. Erk1/2, 4E-BP1, and their phosphorylated forms were quantified by immunoblotting. Angiogenesis was assessed in vitro by aortic ring and tube formation assays, and in vivo with Vegf-a mRNA and vascular casts. After 35 days, tumor volumes were reduced by 60%, 85%, and 55%, relative to controls, in everolimus, the combination, and sequential groups, respectively (P < 0.01). Survival was longest in the combination group (P < 0.001). Phosphorylation of 4E-BP1 and Erk1/2 decreased after everolimus and sorafenib, respectively. Angiogenesis decreased after all treatments (P < 0.05), although sorafenib increased Vegf-a mRNA in liver tumors. Vessel sprouting was abundant in control tumors, lower after sorafenib, and absent after the combination. Intussusceptive angiogenic transluminal pillars failed to coalesce after the combination. Combined treatment with everolimus and sorafenib exerts a stronger antitumoral effect on MH tumors than monotherapy. Everolimus retains antitumoral properties when administered sequentially after sorafenib. This supports the clinical use of everolimus in HCC, both in combination with sorafenib or after sorafenib.

Interleukin-6 is an efficacious marker of axonal transport disruption during experimental glaucoma and stimulates neuritogenesis in cultured retinal ganglion cells

It is increasingly recognised that chronically activated glia contribute to the pathology of various neurodegenerative diseases, including glaucoma. One means by which this can occur is through the release of neurotoxic, proinflammatory factors. In the current study, we therefore investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of expression of three such cytokines, IL-1β, TNFα and IL-6, in a validated rat model of experimental glaucoma. First, only weak evidence was found for increased expression of IL-1β and TNFα following induction of ocular hypertension. Second, and much more striking, was that robust evidence was uncovered showing IL-6 to be synthesised by injured retinal ganglion cells following elevation of intraocular pressure and transported in an orthograde fashion along the nerve, accumulating at sites of axonal disruption in the optic nerve head. Verification that IL-6 represents a novel marker of disrupted axonal transport in this model was obtained by performing double labelling immunofluorescence with recognised markers of fast axonal transport. The stimulus for IL-6 synthesis and axonal transport during experimental glaucoma arose from axonal injury rather than ocular hypertension, as the response was identical after optic nerve crush and bilateral occlusion of the carotid arteries, each of which is independent of elevated intraocular pressure. Moreover, the response of IL-6 was not a generalised feature of the gp130 family of cytokines, as it was not mimicked by another family member, ciliary neurotrophic factor. Finally, further study suggested that IL-6 may be an early part of the endogenous regenerative response as the cytokine colocalised with growth-associated membrane phosphoprotein-43 in some putative regenerating axons, and potently stimulated neuritogenesis in retinal ganglion cells in culture, an effect that was additive to that of ciliary neurotrophic factor. These data comprise clear evidence that IL-6 is actively involved in the attempt of injured retinal ganglion cells to regenerate their axons.

Inhibition of mTOR in combination with doxorubicin in an experimental model of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is resistant to chemotherapy. We reported that sirolimus, an mTOR inhibitor, has antiangiogenic properties in HCC. Since antiangiogenic therapy may enhance chemotherapy effects, we tested the antitumorigenic properties of sirolimus combined with doxorubicin in experimental HCC. METHODS: Morris Hepatoma (MH) cells were implanted into livers of syngeneic rats. Animals were assigned to sirolimus, pegylated liposomal doxorubicin, both combined or control groups. Tumoral growth was followed by MRI. Antiangiogenic effects were assessed by CD31 immunostaining and capillary tube formation assays. Cell proliferation was monitored in vitro by thymidine incorporation. Expression of p21 and phosphorylated MAPKAP kinase-2 was quantified by immunoblotting. RESULTS: Animals treated with the combination developed smaller tumors with decreased tumor microvessel density compared to animals that received monotherapies. In vitro, inhibition of mTOR further impaired capillary formation in the presence of doxorubicin. Doxorubicin reduced endothelial cell proliferation; inhibition of mTOR accentuated this effect. Doxorubicin stimulated p21 expression and the phosphorylation of MAPKAP kinase-2 in endothelial cells. Addition of mTOR inhibitor down-regulated p21, but did not decrease MAPKAP kinase-2 phosphorylation. CONCLUSIONS: Sirolimus has additive antitumoral and antiangiogenic effects when administered with doxorubicin. These findings offer a rationale for combining mTOR inhibitors with chemotherapy in HCC treatment.

Kernels and Designs for Modelling Invariant Functions: From Group Invariance to Additivity

We focus on kernels incorporating different kinds of prior knowledge on functions to be approximated by Kriging. A recent result on random fields with paths invariant under a group action is generalised to combinations of composition operators, and a characterisation of kernels leading to random fields with additive paths is obtained as a corollary. A discussion follows on some implications on design of experiments, and it is shown in the case of additive kernels that the so-called class of “axis designs” outperforms Latin hypercubes in terms of the IMSE criterion.

Additive effect of anemia and renal impairment on long-term outcome after percutaneous coronary intervention

INTRODUCTION Anemia and renal impairment are important co-morbidities among patients with coronary artery disease undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI). Disease progression to eventual death can be understood as the combined effect of baseline characteristics and intermediate outcomes. METHODS Using data from a prospective cohort study, we investigated clinical pathways reflecting the transitions from PCI through intermediate ischemic or hemorrhagic events to all-cause mortality in a multi-state analysis as a function of anemia (hemoglobin concentration <120 g/l and <130 g/l, for women and men, respectively) and renal impairment (creatinine clearance <60 ml/min) at baseline. RESULTS Among 6029 patients undergoing PCI, anemia and renal impairment were observed isolated or in combination in 990 (16.4%), 384 (6.4%), and 309 (5.1%) patients, respectively. The most frequent transition was from PCI to death (6.7%, 95% CI 6.1-7.3), followed by ischemic events (4.8%, 95 CI 4.3-5.4) and bleeding (3.4%, 95% CI 3.0-3.9). Among patients with both anemia and renal impairment, the risk of death was increased 4-fold as compared to the reference group (HR 3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.4) and roughly doubled as compared to patients with either anemia (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.2) or renal impairment (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.9) alone. Hazard ratios indicated an increased risk of bleeding in all three groups compared to patients with neither anemia nor renal impairment. CONCLUSIONS Applying a multi-state model we found evidence for a gradient of risk for the composite of bleeding, ischemic events, or death as a function of hemoglobin value and estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline.

General distress, hopelessness—suicidal ideation and worrying in adolescence: Concurrent and predictive validity of a symptom-level bifactor model for clinical diagnoses

BACKGROUND: Clinical disorders often share common symptoms and aetiological factors. Bifactor models acknowledge the role of an underlying general distress component and more specific sub-domains of psychopathology which specify the unique components of disorders over and above a general factor. METHODS: A bifactor model jointly calibrated data on subjective distress from The Mood and Feelings Questionnaire and the Revised Children's Manifest Anxiety Scale. The bifactor model encompassed a general distress factor, and specific factors for (a) hopelessness-suicidal ideation, (b) generalised worrying and (c) restlessness-fatigue at age 14 which were related to lifetime clinical diagnoses established by interviews at ages 14 (concurrent validity) and current diagnoses at 17 years (predictive validity) in a British population sample of 1159 adolescents. RESULTS: Diagnostic interviews confirmed the validity of a symptom-level bifactor model. The underlying general distress factor was a powerful but non-specific predictor of affective, anxiety and behaviour disorders. The specific factors for hopelessness-suicidal ideation and generalised worrying contributed to predictive specificity. Hopelessness-suicidal ideation predicted concurrent and future affective disorder; generalised worrying predicted concurrent and future anxiety, specifically concurrent generalised anxiety disorders. Generalised worrying was negatively associated with behaviour disorders. LIMITATIONS: The analyses of gender differences and the prediction of specific disorders was limited due to a low frequency of disorders other than depression. CONCLUSIONS: The bifactor model was able to differentiate concurrent and predict future clinical diagnoses. This can inform the development of targeted as well as non-specific interventions for prevention and treatment of different disorders.

Generalised integrable λ- and η-deformations and their relation

We construct two-parameter families of integrable λ -deformations of two-dimensional field theories. These interpolate between a CFT (a WZW/gauged WZW model) and the non-Abelian T-dual of a principal chiral model on a group/symmetric coset space. In examples based on the SU(2) WZW model and the SU(2)/U(1) exact coset CFT, we show that these deformations are related to bi-Yang–Baxter generalisations of η-deformations via Poisson–Lie T-duality and analytic continuation. We illustrate the quantum behaviour of our models under RG flow. As a byproduct we demonstrate that the bi-Yang–Baxter σ-model for a general group is one-loop renormalisable.