48 resultados para Fuzzy epidemic
em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça
Resumo:
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has a growing impact on morbidity and mortality in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We assessed trends in HCV incidence in the different HIV transmission groups in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS).
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the virulence of HIV-1 has been changing since its introduction into Switzerland. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study of HIV-1 infected individuals with well-characterized pre-therapy disease history. METHODS: To minimize the effect of recently imported viruses and ethnicity-associated host factors, the analysis was restricted to the white, north-west-European majority population of the cohort. Virulence was characterized by the decline slope of the CD4 cell count (n = 817 patients), the decline slope of the CD4:CD8 ratio (n = 815 patients) and the viral setpoint (n = 549 patients) in untreated patients with sufficient data points. Linear regression models were used to detect correlations between the date of diagnosis (ranging between 1984 and 2003) and the virulence markers, controlling for gender, exposure category, age and CD4 cell count at entry. RESULTS: We found no correlation between any of the virulence markers and the date of diagnosis. Inspection of short-term trends confirmed that virulence has fluctuated around a stable level over time. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of long-term time trends in the virulence markers indicates that HIV-1 is not evolving towards increasing or decreasing virulence at a perceptible rate. Both highly virulent and attenuated strains have apparently been unable to spread at the population level. This result suggests that either the evolution of virulence may be slow or inhibited due to evolutionary constraints, or HIV-1 may have already evolved to optimal virulence in the human host.
Resumo:
This study investigated whether the epidemiology of penicillin-non-susceptible pneumococci (PNSP) colonising small children correlated with the biannual epidemic activity of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Colonisation rates and the prevalence of PNSP among paediatric outpatients aged < 5 years was analysed between January 1998 and September 2003 using an established national surveillance network. Resistance trends were investigated using time-series analysis to assess the correlation with the biannual pattern of RSV infections and national sales of oral paediatric formulations of antibiotics and antibiotic prescriptions to children aged < 5 years for acute respiratory tract infections. PNSP rates exhibited a biannual cycle in phase with the biannual seasonal RSV epidemics (p < 0.05). Resistance rates were higher during the winter seasons of 1998-1999 (20.1%), 2000-2001 (16.0%) and 2002-2003 (19.1%), compared with the winter seasons of 1997-1998 (8.2%), 1999-2000 (11.6%) and 2001-2002 (9.5%). Antibiotic sales and prescriptions showed regular peaks during each winter, with no significant correlation with the biannual pattern of RSV activity and seasonal trends of PNSP. RSV is an important determinant of the spread of PNSP and must be considered in strategies aimed at antimicrobial resistance control.
Resumo:
Since 1991, 6 years after the recommendation of universal childhood vaccination against measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR triple vaccine), Switzerland is confronted with a large number of mumps cases affecting both vaccinated and unvaccinated children. Up to 80% of the children suffering from mumps between 1991 and 1995 had previously been vaccinated, the majority with the Rubini vaccine strain. On the basis of a case-control study including 102 patients and 92 controls from the same pediatric population, a study of the humoral immune-response following vaccination with the Rubini vaccine in 6 young adult volunteers, and two different genetic studies, we investigated the complex problem of large scale vaccine failure in Switzerland. We conclude that the recently reported large number of Swiss mumps cases was caused by at least four interacting factors: 1. A vaccine coverage of 90-95% at the age of 2 years is necessary to interrupt mumps wild virus circulation. The nationwide vaccine coverage in Switzerland of some 80% in 27-36 month-old children is too low. 2. Primary vaccine failures (absence of seroconversion or unprotective low levels of neutralizing antibodies), as well as secondary vaccine failures due to the rapid decline of antibodies to mumps virus in our volunteers and controls, seem to be frequent after vaccination with the Rubini strain. 3. Despite its reported Swiss origin, the Rubini strain does not belong to the mumps virus lineages recently circulating in this area but is closely related to American mumps virus strains. 4. Differences in protein structure between the vaccine strain and the circulating wild type strains, and in particular a different neutralization epitope in the hemagglutinin neuraminidase protein, may additionally contribute to the lack of protection in vaccinated individuals.
Resumo:
A die-off of passerine birds, mostly Eurasian siskins (Carduelis spinus), occurred in multiple areas of Switzerland between February and March 2010. Several of the dead birds were submitted for full necropsy. Bacteriological examination was carried out on multiple tissues of each bird. At gross examination, common findings were light-tan nodules, 1 to 4 mm in diameter, scattered through the esophagus/crop. Histologically, a necroulcerative transmural esophagitis/ingluvitis was observed. Bacterial cultures yielded Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhimurium. At the same time, 2 pet clinics reported an unusual increase of domestic cats presented with fever, anorexia, occasionally dolent abdomen, and history of presumed consumption of passerine birds. Analysis of rectal swabs revealed the presence of S. Typhimurium in all tested cats. PFGE (pulsed field electrophoresis) analysis was performed to characterize and compare the bacterial isolates, and it revealed an indistinguishable pattern between all the avian and all but 1 of the feline isolates. Cloacal swabs collected from clinically healthy migrating Eurasian siskins (during autumn 2010) did not yield S. Typhimurium. The histological and bacteriological findings were consistent with a systemic infection caused by S. Typhimurium. Isolation of the same serovar from the dead birds and ill cats, along with the overlapping results of the PFGE analysis for all the animal species, confirmed a spillover from birds to cats through predation. The sudden increase of the number of siskins over the Swiss territory and their persistency during the whole winter of 2009-2010 is considered the most likely predisposing factor for the onset of the epidemic.