Quantifying differences in land use emission estimates implied by definition discrepancies

The quantification of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use and land use change (eLUC) is essential to understand the drivers of the atmospheric CO2 increase and to inform climate change mitigation policy. Reported values in synthesis reports are commonly derived from different approaches (observation-driven bookkeeping and process-modelling) but recent work has emphasized that inconsistencies between methods may imply substantial differences in eLUC estimates. However, a consistent quantification is lacking and no concise modelling protocol for the separation of primary and secondary components of eLUC has been established. Here, we review differences of eLUC quantification methods and apply an Earth System Model (ESM) of Intermediate Complexity to quantify them. We find that the magnitude of effects due to merely conceptual differences between ESM and offline vegetation model-based quantifications is ~ 20 % for today. Under a future business-as-usual scenario, differences tend to increase further due to slowing land conversion rates and an increasing impact of altered environmental conditions on land-atmosphere fluxes. We establish how coupled Earth System Models may be applied to separate secondary component fluxes of eLUC arising from the replacement of potential C sinks/sources and the land use feedback and show that secondary fluxes derived from offline vegetation models are conceptually and quantitatively not identical to either, nor their sum. Therefore, we argue that synthesis studies should resort to the "least common denominator" of different methods, following the bookkeeping approach where only primary land use emissions are quantified under the assumption of constant environmental boundary conditions.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework1. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4–0.5 °C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8–1.0 °C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22–27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Business as Usual? : An Appraisal of the Implementation of the UNESCO Convention on Cultural Diversity into EU’s Media Law and Policies

Irrespective of the diverse stances taken on the effect of the UNESCO Convention on Cultural Diversity in the external relations context, since its wording is fairly open-ended, it is clear to all observers that the Convention’s impact will largely depend on how it is implemented domestically. The discussion on the national implementation of the Convention, both in the policy and in the academic discourses, is only just emerging. The implementation model of the EU could set an important example for the international community and for the other State Parties that have ratified the UNESCO Convention, as both the EU and its Member States acting individually, have played a critical role in the adoption of the Convention, as well as in the longer process of promoting cultural concerns on the international scene. Against this backdrop, this article analyses the extent to which the EU internal law and policies, in particular in the key area of media, take into account the spirit and the letter of the UNESCO Convention on Cultural Diversity. The article seeks to critically evaluate the present state of affairs and make some recommendations for calibration of future policies.

Business as Usual? : The Implementation of the UNESCO Convention on Cultural Diversity and EU Media Law and Policies

Irrespective of the diverse stances taken on the effect of the UNESCO Convention on Cultural Diversity in the external relations context, since its wording is fairly open-ended, it is clear to all observers that the Convention’s impact will largely depend on how it is implemented domestically. The discussion on the national implementation of the Convention, both in the policy and in the academic discourses, is only just emerging, although six years the Convention’s entry into force have passed. The implementation model of the EU can set an important example for the international community and for the other State Parties that have ratified the UNESCO Convention, as both the EU and its Member States acting individually, have played a critical role in the adoption of the Convention, as well as in the longer process of promoting cultural concerns on the international scene. Against this backdrop, this article analyses the extent to which the EU internal law and policies, in particular in the key area of media, take into account the spirit and the letter of the UNESCO Convention on Cultural Diversity. Next to an assessment of the EU’s implementation of the Convention, the article also offers remarks of normative character – in the sense of what should be done to actually attain the objective of protecting and promoting cultural diversity. The article seeks to critically evaluate the present state of affairs and make some recommendations for calibration of future policies.

A glimpse into the future composition of marine phytoplankton communities

It is expected that climate change will have significant impacts on ecosystems. Most model projections agree that the ocean will experience stronger stratification and less nutrient supply from deep waters. These changes will likely affect marine phytoplankton communities and will thus impact on the higher trophic levels of the oceanic food web. The potential consequences of future climate change on marine microbial communities can be investigated and predicted only with the help of mathematical models. Here we present the application of a model that describes aggregate properties of marine phytoplankton communities and captures the effects of a changing environment on their composition and adaptive capacity. Specifically, the model describes the phytoplankton community in terms of total biomass, mean cell size, and functional diversity. The model is applied to two contrasting regions of the Atlantic Ocean (tropical and temperate) and is tested under two emission scenarios: SRES A2 or “business as usual” and SRES B1 or “local utopia.” We find that all three macroecological properties will decline during the next century in both regions, although this effect will be more pronounced in the temperate region. Being consistent with previous model predictions, our results show that a simple trait-based modeling framework represents a valuable tool for investigating how phytoplankton communities may reorganize under a changing climate.