The past ecology of Abies alba provides new perspectives on future responses of silver fir forests to global warming

Paleoecology can provide valuable insights into the ecology of species that complement observation and experiment-based assessments of climate impact dynamics. New paleoecological records (e.g., pollen, macrofossils) from the Italian Peninsula suggest a much wider climatic niche of the important European tree species Abies alba (silver fir) than observed in its present spatial range. To explore this discrepancy between current and past distribution of the species, we analyzed climatic data (temperature, precipitation, frost, humidity, sunshine) and vegetation-independent paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g., lake levels, chironomids) and use global coupled carbon-cycle climate (NCAR CSM1.4) and dynamic vegetation (LandClim) modeling. The combined evidence suggests that during the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago), prior to humanization of vegetation, A. alba formed forests under conditions that exceeded the modern (1961-1990) upper temperature limit of the species by 5-7°C (July means). Annual precipitation during this natural period was comparable to today (>700-800 mm), with drier summers and wetter winters. In the meso-Mediterranean to sub-Mediterranean forests A. alba co-occurred with thermophilous taxa such as Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Olea europaea, Phillyrea, Arbutus, Cistus, Tilia, Ulmus, Acer, Hedera helix, Ilex aquifolium, Taxus, and Vitis. Results from the last interglacial (ca. 130 000-115 000 BP), when human impact was negligible, corroborate the Holocene evidence. Thermophilous Mediterranean A. alba stands became extinct during the last 5000 years when land-use pressure and specifically excessive anthropogenic fire and browsing disturbance increased. Our results imply that the ecology of this key European tree species is not yet well understood. On the basis of the reconstructed realized climatic niche of the species, we anticipate that the future geographic range of A. alba may not contract regardless of migration success, even if climate should become significantly warmer than today with summer temperatures increasing by up to 5-7°C, as long as precipitation does not fall below 700-800 mm/yr, and anthropogenic disturbance (e.g., fire, browsing) does not become excessive. Our finding contradicts recent studies that projected range contractions under global-warming scenarios, but did not factor how millennia of human impacts reduced the realized climatic niche of A. alba.

Periodontitis: a future risk of acute coronary syndrome? A follow-up study over 3 years

BACKGROUND: Periodontitis has been associated with cardiovascular disease. We assess if the recurrence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) could be predicted by preceding medical and periodontal conditions. METHODS: A total of 165 consecutive subjects with ACS and 159 medically healthy, matched control subjects were examined and followed for 3 years. Periodontitis was defined by alveolar bone loss. Subgingival microbial samples were studied by the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method. RESULTS: The recurrence of ACS was found in 66 of 165 (40.0%) subjects, and a first ACS event was found in seven of 159 (4.4%) subjects among baseline control subjects. Subjects who later had a second ACS event were older (P <0.001). Significantly higher serum levels of high-density lipoprotein (P <0.05), creatinine (P <0.01), and white blood cell (WBC) counts (P <0.001) were found in subjects with future ACS. Periodontitis was associated with a first event of ACS (crude odds ratio [OR]: 10.3:1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.1 to 17.4; P <0.001) and the recurrence of ACS (crude OR: 3.6:1; 95% CI: 2.0 to 6.6; P <0.001). General linear modeling multivariate analysis, controlling for age and the prediction of a future ACS event, identified that WBC counts (F = 20.6; P <0.001), periodontitis (F = 17.6; P <0.001), and serum creatinine counts (F = 4.5; P <0.05) were explanatory of a future ACS event. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that recurrent ACS events are predicted by serum WBC counts, serum creatinine levels, and a diagnosis of periodontitis. Significantly higher counts of putative pathogens are found in subjects with ACS, but these counts do not predict future ACS events.

[Historical review and future orientations of the conventional vascular microanastomoses]

Microvascular surgery has become an important method for reconstructing surgical defects due to trauma, tumors or after burn. The most important factor for successful free flap transfer is a well-executed anastomosis. The time needed to perform the anastomosis and the failure rate are not negligible despite the high level of operator's experience. During the history, many alternatives were tried to help the microsurgeon and to reduce the complications. A Medline literature search was performed to find articles dealing with non-suture methods of microvascular anastomosis. Many historical books were also included. The non-suture techniques can be divided into four groups based on the used mechanism of sutures: double intubation including tubes and stents, intubation-eversion including simple rings, double eversion including staples and double rings, and wall adjustement with adhesives or laser. All these techniques were able to produce a faster and easier microvascular anastomosis. Nevertheless, disadvantages of the suturless techniques include toxicity, high cost, leakage or aneurysm formation. More refinement is needed before their widespread adoption. Thus, laser-assisted microvascular anastomosis using 1,9 μm diode laser appeared to be a safe and reliable help for the microsurgeon and may be further developed in the near future.

Predicting future risk of asthma exacerbations using individual conditional probabilities

Determination of future risk of exacerbations is a key issue in the management of asthma. We previously developed a method to calculate conditional probabilities (π) of future decreases in lung function by using the daily fluctuations in peak expiratory flow (PEF).

Future trials of endovascular mechanical recanalisation therapy in acute ischemic stroke patients - A position paper endorsed by ESMINT and ESNR : Part II: methodology of future trials

Based on current data and experience, the joint working group of the European Society of Minimally Invasive Neurological Therapy (ESMINT) and the European Society of Neuroradiology (ESNR) make suggestions on trial design and conduct aimed to investigate therapeutic effects of mechanical thrombectomy (MT). We anticipate that this roadmap will facilitate the setting up and conduct of successful trials in close collaboration with our neighbouring disciplines.

Future trials of endovascular mechanical recanalisation therapy in acute ischemic stroke patients: a position paper endorsed by ESMINT and ESNR : Part I: Current situation and major research questions

A new era of stroke treatment may have begun with mechanical thrombectomy (MT) by fully deployed closed-cell self-expanding stents (stent-triever). Multiple case series and the first randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have now been published. More studies are under way involving large numbers of patients, which in turn has resulted in less strict "pragmatic" study protocols. Problems with current trials include a lack of standardisation in the conduct of the recanalisation procedure, the definition of primary endpoints such as the grade of arterial recanalisation and tissue reperfusion, and the post-surgical care provided. In Part 1 of this two part series, we outline the current situation and the major research questions.

The current and future state of interventional cardiology: a critical appraisal

After 75 years of invasive and over 50 years of interventional cardiology, cardiac catheter-based procedures have become the most frequently used interventions of modern medicine. Patients undergoing a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) outnumber those with coronary artery bypass surgery by a factor of 2 to 4. The default approach to PCI is the implantation of a (drug-eluting) stent, in spite of the fact that it improves the results of balloon angioplasty only in about 25% of cases. The dominance of stenting over conservative therapy or balloon angioplasty on one hand and bypass surgery on the other hand is a flagrant example of how medical research is digested an applied in real life. Apart from electrophysiological interventions, closure ot the patent foramen ovale and percutaneous replacement of the aortic valve in the elderly have the potential of becoming daily routine procedures in catheterization laboratories around the world. Stem cell regeneration of vessels or heart muscle, on the other hand, may remain a dream never to come true.

The future treatment of portal hypertension

Increased understanding of the hyperdynamic circulation syndrome has resulted in novel therapeutic approaches, some of which have already reached clinical practice. Central to the hyperdynamic circulation syndrome is an imbalance between the increase in different vasodilators (foremost among which is nitric oxide) and the compensatory increase in vasoconstrictors--usually accompanied by a blunted response. This chapter discusses the role of endothelin in the pathogenesis of the syndrome and in future treatment approaches. A relatively new area of research in this field is the role of infection and inflammation in the initiation and maintenance of the hyperdynamic circulation syndrome. The use of antibiotics in the setting of acute variceal bleeding is standard practice. Studies have suggested that chronic manipulation of the intestinal flora could have beneficial effects in the treatment of portal hypertension. The bile salts are another novel and interesting target. Although their vasoactive properties have been known for some time, recent data demonstrate that their effects could be central in the pathogenesis of the hyperdynamic circulation syndrome, and that manipulation of the composition of the bile acid pool could be a therapeutic approach to portal hypertension. Finally, hypoxia and angiogenesis play a role in the development of portal hypertension and the formation of collaterals. This role needs to be further defined but it appears likely that this phenomenon is yet another target for therapeutic intervention.

The potential effect of population development, smoking and antioxidant supplementation on the future epidemiology of age-related macular degeneration in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Due to the predicted age shift of the population an increase in the number of patients with late AMD is expected. At present smoking represents the only modifiable risk factor. Supplementation of antioxidants in patients at risk is the sole effective pharmacological prevention. The aim of this study is to estimate the future epidemiological development of late AMD in Switzerland and to quantify the potential effects of smoking and antioxidants supplementation. METHODS: The modelling of the future development of late AMD cases in Switzerland was based on a meta-analysis of the published data on AMD-prevalence and on published Swiss population development scenarios until 2050. Three different scenarios were compared: low, mean and high. The late AMD cases caused by smoking were calculated using the "population attributable fraction" formula and data on the current smoking habits of the Swiss population. The number of potentially preventable cases was estimated using the data of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). RESULTS: According to the mean population development scenario, late AMD cases in Switzerland will rise from 37 200 cases in 2005 to 52 500 cases in 2020 and to 93 200 cases in 2050. Using the "low" and the "high" scenarios the late AMD cases may range from 49 500 to 56 000 in 2020 and from 73 700 to 118 400 in 2050, respectively. Smoking is responsible for approximately 7 % of all late AMD cases, i. e., 2600 cases in 2005, 3800 cases in 2020, 6600 cases in 2050 ("mean scenario"). With future antioxidant supplementation to all patients at risk another 3100 cases would be preventable until 2020 and possibly 23 500 cases until 2050. CONCLUSION: Due to age shift in the population a 2.5-fold increase in late AMD cases until 2050 is expected, representing a socioeconomic challenge. Cessation of smoking and supplementation of antioxidants to all patients at risk has the potential to reduce this number. Unfortunately, public awareness is low. These data may support health-care providers and public opinion leaders when developing public education and prevention strategies.