Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice.

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics.

Canine rabies in Australia: a review of preparedness and research needs

Australia is unique as a populated continent in that canine rabies is exotic, with only one likely incursion in 1867. This is despite the presence of a widespread free-ranging dog population, which includes the naturalized dingo, feral domestic dogs and dingo-dog cross-breeds. To Australia's immediate north, rabies has recently spread within the Indonesian archipelago, with outbreaks occurring in historically free islands to the east including Bali, Flores, Ambon and the Tanimbar Islands. Australia depends on strict quarantine protocols to prevent importation of a rabid animal, but the risk of illegal animal movements by fishing and recreational vessels circumventing quarantine remains. Predicting where rabies will enter Australia is important, but understanding dog population dynamics and interactions, including contact rates in and around human populations, is essential for rabies preparedness. The interactions among and between Australia's large populations of wild, free-roaming and restrained domestic dogs require quantification for rabies incursions to be detected and controlled. The imminent risk of rabies breaching Australian borders makes the development of disease spread models that will assist in the deployment of cost-effective surveillance, improve preventive strategies and guide disease management protocols vitally important. Here, we critically review Australia's preparedness for rabies, discuss prevailing assumptions and models, identify knowledge deficits in free-roaming dog ecology relating to rabies maintenance and speculate on the likely consequences of endemic rabies for Australia.

Development of a Novel Rabies Simulation Model for Application in a Non-endemic Environment.

Domestic dog rabies is an endemic disease in large parts of the developing world and also epidemic in previously free regions. For example, it continues to spread in eastern Indonesia and currently threatens adjacent rabies-free regions with high densities of free-roaming dogs, including remote northern Australia. Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions. Existing rabies models typically focus on long-term control programs in endemic countries. However, simulation models describing the dog rabies incursion scenario in regions where rabies is still exotic are lacking. We here describe such a stochastic, spatially explicit rabies simulation model that is based on individual dog information collected in two remote regions in northern Australia. Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R0 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy). Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested. This model is suitable for exploring rabies spread and control before an incursion in populations of largely free-roaming dogs that live close together with their owners. It can be used for ad-hoc contingency or response planning prior to and shortly after incursion of dog rabies in previously free regions. One challenge that remains is model parameterisation, particularly how dogs' roaming and contacts and biting behaviours change following a rabies incursion in a previously rabies free population.