Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults

Background Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS), directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS. Methods Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization. Results During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men) and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS. Conclusions The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk.

Prediction of first coronary events with the Framingham score: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty exists about the performance of the Framingham risk score when applied in different populations. OBJECTIVE: We assessed calibration of the Framingham risk score (ie, relationship between predicted and observed coronary event rates) in US and non-US populations free of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We reviewed studies that evaluated the performance of the Framingham risk score to predict first coronary events in a validation cohort, as identified by Medline, EMBASE, BIOSIS, and Cochrane library searches (through August 2005). Two reviewers independently assessed 1496 studies for eligibility, extracted data, and performed quality assessment using predefined forms. RESULTS: We included 25 validation cohorts of different population groups (n = 128,000) in our main analysis. Calibration varied over a wide range from under- to overprediction of absolute risk by factors of 0.57 to 2.7. Risk prediction for 7 cohorts (n = 18658) from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand was well calibrated (corresponding figures: 0.87-1.08; for the 5 biggest cohorts). The estimated population risks for first coronary events were strongly associated (goodness of fit: R2 = 0.84) and in good agreement with observed risks (coefficient for predicted risk: beta = 0.84; 95% CI 0.41-1.26). In 18 European cohorts (n = 109499), the corresponding figures indicated close association (R2 = 0.72) but substantial overprediction (beta = 0.58, 95% CI 0.39-0.77). The risk score was well calibrated on the intercept for both population clusters. CONCLUSION: The Framingham score is well calibrated to predict first coronary events in populations from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. Overestimation of absolute risk in European cohorts requires recalibration procedures.

Increased Framingham Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score in dementia caregivers relative to non-caregiving controls

BACKGROUND: Elderly individuals who provide care to a spouse suffering from dementia bear an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that the Framingham CHD Risk Score would be higher in dementia caregivers relative to non-caregiving controls. METHODS: We investigated 64 caregivers providing in-home care for their spouse with Alzheimer's disease and 41 gender-matched non-caregiving controls. All subjects (mean age 70 +/- 8 years, 75% women, 93% Caucasian) had a negative history of CHD and cerebrovascular disease. The original Framingham CHD Risk Score was computed adding up categorical scores for age, blood lipids, blood pressure, diabetes, and smoking with adjustment made for sex. RESULTS: The average CHD risk score was higher in caregivers than in controls even when co-varying for socioeconomic status, health habits, medication, and psychological distress (8.0 +/- 2.9 vs. 6.3 +/- 3.0 points, p = 0.013). The difference showed a medium effect size (Cohen's d = 0.57). A relatively higher blood pressure in caregivers than in controls made the greatest contribution to this difference. The probability (area under the receiver operator curve) that a randomly selected caregiver had a greater CHD risk score than a randomly selected non-caregiver was 65.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the Framingham CHD Risk Score, the potential to develop overt CHD in the following 10 years was predicted to be greater in dementia caregivers than in non-caregiving controls. The magnitude of the difference in the CHD risk between caregivers and controls appears to be clinically relevant. Clinicians may want to monitor caregiving status as a routine part of standard evaluation of their elderly patients' cardiovascular risk.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

Added value of coronary artery calcium score as an adjunct to gated SPECT for the evaluation of coronary artery disease in an intermediate-risk population

The coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is a readily and widely available tool for the noninvasive diagnosis of atherosclerotic coronary artery disease (CAD). The aim of this study was to investigate the added value of the CAC score as an adjunct to gated SPECT for the assessment of CAD in an intermediate-risk population. METHODS: Seventy-seven prospectively recruited patients with intermediate risk (as determined by the Framingham Heart Study 10-y CAD risk score) and referred for coronary angiography because of suspected CAD underwent stress (99m)Tc-tetrofosmin SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) and CT CAC scoring within 2 wk before coronary angiography. The sensitivity and specificity of SPECT alone and of the combination of the 2 methods (SPECT plus CAC score) in demonstrating significant CAD (>/=50% stenosis on coronary angiography) were compared. RESULTS: Forty-two (55%) of the 77 patients had CAD on coronary angiography, and 35 (45%) had abnormal SPECT results. The CAC score was significantly higher in subjects with perfusion abnormalities than in those who had normal SPECT results (889 +/- 836 [mean +/- SD] vs. 286 +/- 335; P < 0.0001). Similarly, with rising CAC scores, a larger percentage of patients had CAD. Receiver-operating-characteristic analysis showed that a CAC score of greater than or equal to 709 was the optimal cutoff for detecting CAD missed by SPECT. SPECT alone had a sensitivity and a specificity for the detection of significant CAD of 76% and 91%, respectively. Combining SPECT with the CAC score (at a cutoff of 709) improved the sensitivity of SPECT (from 76% to 86%) for the detection of CAD, in association with a nonsignificant decrease in specificity (from 91% to 86%). CONCLUSION: The CAC score may offer incremental diagnostic information over SPECT data for identifying patients with significant CAD and negative MPI results.

Fasting plasma glucose predicts survival and angiographic progression in high-risk postmenopausal women with coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND: We studied the association of baseline fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels with survival and coronary artery disease (CAD) progression among postmenopausal women without unstable angina. METHODS: Women were recruited from seven centers in the Women's Angiographic Vitamin and Estrogen Trial (WAVE) (n = 423). Event follow-up was available for 400 women (65.1 +/- 8.5 years, 66% white, 92% hypertensive, 19% smokers, 67% hypercholesterolemic). Thirty-eight percent of the women had diabetes or FPG > 125 mg/dL, and 21% had a fasting glucose 100-125 mg/dL. Follow-up angiography was performed in 304 women. Cox regression was used to model survival from a composite outcome of death or myocardial infarction (D/MI, 26 events; median follow-up 2.4 years). Angiographic progression was analyzed quantitatively using linear regression accounting for baseline minimum lumen diameter (MLD), follow-up time, and intrasubject correlations using generalized estimating equations. Regression analyses were adjusted for follow-up time, baseline age, treatment assignment, and Framingham risk (excluding diabetes). RESULTS: Women with impaired fasting glucose/diabetes mellitus (IFG/DM) had a relative risk (RR) of D/MI of 4.2 ( p = 0.009). In all women, each 10 mg/dL increase in FPG was associated with an 11% increase ( p < 0.001) in the hazard of D/MI. Each 10 mg/dL increase in FPG was associated with a 6.8 mum decrease in MLD over the follow-up period ( p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Higher FPG is associated with increased risk of D/MI and greater narrowing of the coronary lumen in women with CAD. Aggressive monitoring of glucose levels may be beneficial for secondary CAD prevention.

Prevalence of bone attrition on knee radiographs and MRI in a community-based cohort

OBJECTIVES: Bone attrition probably constitutes remodeling of the bone, resulting in flattening or depression of the articular surfaces. Defining bone attrition is challenging because it is an accentuation of the normal curvature of the tibial plateaus. We aimed to define bone attrition on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the knee using information from both radiographs and MRIs, and to assess whether bone attrition is common prior to end stage disease osteoarthritis (OA) in the tibio-femoral joint. METHODS: All knees of participants in the community-based sample of the Framingham OA Study were evaluated for bone attrition in radiographs and MRIs. Radiographs were scored based on templates designed to outline the normal contours of the tibio-femoral joint. MRIs were analyzed using the semi-quantitative Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scoring (WORMS) method. The prevalence of bone attrition was calculated using two different thresholds for MRI scores. RESULTS: Inter-observer agreement for identification of bone attrition was substantial for the radiographs (kappa=0.71, 95% CI 0.67-0.81) and moderate for MRI (kappa=0.56, 95% CI 0.40-0.72). Of 964 knees, 5.7% of the radiographs showed bone attrition. Of these, 91% of MRIs were also read as showing bone attrition. We selected a conservative threshold for bone attrition on MRI scoring (> or = 2 on a 0-3 scale) based on agreement with attrition on the radiograph or when bone attrition on MRI co-occurred with cartilage loss on OA. Using this threshold for bone attrition on MRI, bone attrition was common in knees with OA. For example, in knees with mild OA but no joint space narrowing, 13 of 88 MRIs (14.8%) showed bone attrition. CONCLUSIONS: Using MRI we found that many knees with mild OA without joint narrowing on radiographs had bone attrition, even using conservative definitions. The validity of our definition of bone attrition should be evaluated in further studies. Bone attrition may occur in milder OA and at earlier stages of disease than previously thought.

Renal resistance index in renal allograft recipients: a role for ADMA

BACKGROUND: Renal resistance index, a predictor of kidney allograft function and patient survival, seems to depend on renal and peripheral vascular compliance and resistance. Asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) is an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthase and therefore influences vascular resistance. STUDY DESIGN: We investigated the relationship between renal resistance index, ADMA, and risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and kidney function in a cross-sectional study. SETTING ; PARTICIPANTS: 200 stable renal allograft recipients (133 men and 67 women with a mean age of 52.8 years). PREDICTORS: Serum ADMA concentration, pulse pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate and recipient age. OUTCOME: Renal resistance index. MEASUREMENTS: Renal resistance index measured by color-coded duplex ultrasound, serum ADMA concentration measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, estimated glomerular filtration rate (Nankivell equation), arterial stiffness measured by digital volume pulse, Framingham and other cardiovascular risk factors, and evaluation of concomitant antihypertensive and immunosuppressive medication. RESULTS: Mean serum ADMA concentration was 0.72 +/- 0.21 (+/-SD) micromol/L and mean renal resistance index was 0.71 +/- 0.07. Multiple stepwise regression analysis showed that recipient age (P < 0.001), pulse pressure (P < 0.001), diabetes (P < 0.01) and ADMA concentration (P < 0.01) were independently associated with resistance index. ADMA concentrations were correlated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (P < 0.01). LIMITATIONS: The cross-sectional nature of this study precludes cause-effect conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to established cardiovascular risk factors, ADMA appears to be a relevant determinant of renal resistance index and allograft function and deserves consideration in prospective outcome trials in renal transplantation.

Reproducibility of peripheral arterial tonometry measurements in male cardiovascular patients

BACKGROUND Assessment of endothelial function of the microvasculature by peripheral arterial tonometry (EndoPAT(®)) has gained increasing popularity in patients with cardiovascular risk factors. Only limited knowledge about its reproducibility in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is available. We therefore aimed to quantify reproducibility of EndoPAT(®) parameters in patients with stable CAD. DESIGN EndoPAT(®) measurements were performed repeatedly in 78 male patients (age 66 ± 8 years) with CAD on stable medication. We calculated overall mean, standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV) and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of the following parameters: reactive hyperemic index (RHI), PAT ratio of the postocclusion period 90-150 s as used for calculation of the RHI (PAT ratio90-150 s) and 90-120 s (PAT ratio90-120 s) as used for the often employed Framingham RHI (F-RHI), as well as PAT ratio of the peak hyperemic response (PAT ratiopeak response). Additionally, least significant changes (LSC) for individual subjects and minimum sample sizes for parallel and cross-over design studies were calculated. RESULTS Mean RHI was 1·84 (SD 0·36). For RHI, PAT ratio90-150 s , PAT ratio90-120 s , and PAT ratiopeak response the CVs were 17·0%, 25·4%, 26·1%, and 25·0%, respectively. The ICCs were 0·45, 0·49, 0·48 and 0·51, respectively, and LSC for RHI was 47·2%. CONCLUSIONS CV of RHI in our population was moderate; however, we consider this precision insufficient to monitor changes in individual patients, as they would need to exceed 47% to show a significant change. Further, the poor ICCs reflect the difficulty of detecting treatment effects in homogenous populations, such as patients with stable CAD.

Sex- and gender-related risk factor burden in patients with premature acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND Few contemporary data exist on traditional (TRF) and non-TRF (NTRF) burden in patients with premature acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS Prevalence of TRFs and NTRFs were measured in 1015 young (55 years old or younger) ACS patients recruited from 26 centres in Canada, the United States, and Switzerland. Risk factors were compared across sex and family history categories, and against a sample of the general Canadian population based on the 2000-2001 Canadian Community Health Survey. The 10- and 30-year risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) were estimated using Framingham Risk Scores. RESULTS Risk factors were more prevalent in premature ACS patients compared with the general population. Young women with a family history of coronary artery disease showed the greatest risk factor burden including TRFs of hypertension (67%), dyslipidemia (67%), obesity (53%), smoking (42%), and diabetes (33%), and NTRFs of anxiety (55%), low household income (44%), and depression (37%). The estimated median 10-year risk of CVD was 7% (interquartile range [IQR], 3%-9%) in women and 13% (IQR, 7%-17%) in men, whereas the 30-year risk of CVD was 36% (IQR, 22%-49%) in women and 44% (IQR, 31%-57%) in men. CONCLUSIONS Patients with premature ACS, especially women with a positive family history, are characterized by a very high risk factor burden that is poorly captured by 10-year risk estimates but better captured by 30-year estimates. Consideration of NTRFs and use of 30-year risk estimates might better estimate risk in young individuals and improve the prevention of premature ACS.