Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.

Mutagenesis and computer modeling studies of a GPCR conserved residue W5.43(194) in ligand recognition and signal transduction for CB2 receptor

W5.43(194), a conserved tryptophan residue among G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs) and cannabinoid receptors (CB), was examined in the present report for its significance in CB2 receptor ligand binding and adenylyl cyclase (AC) activity. Computer modeling postulates that this site in CB2 may be involved in the affinity of WIN55212-2 and SR144528 through aromatic contacts. In the present study, we reported that a CB2 receptor mutant, W5.43(194)Y, which had a tyrosine (Y) substitution for tryptophan (W), retained the binding affinity for CB agonist CP55940, but reduced binding affinity for CB2 agonist WIN55212-2 and inverse agonist SR144528 by 8-fold and 5-fold, respectively; the CB2 W5.43(194)F and W5.43(194)A mutations significantly affect the binding activities of CP55940, WIN55212-2 and SR144528. Furthermore, we found that agonist-mediated inhibition of the forskolin-induced cAMP production was dramatically diminished in the CB2 mutant W5.43(194)Y, whereas W5.43(194)F and W5.43(194)A mutants resulted in complete elimination of downstream signaling, suggesting that W5.43(194) was essential for the full activation of CB2. These results indicate that both aromatic interaction and hydrogen bonding are involved in ligand binding for the residue W5.43(194), and the mutations of this tryptophan site may affect the conformation of the ligand binding pocket and therefore control the active conformation of the wild type CB2 receptor. W5.43(194)Y/F/A mutations also displayed noticeable enhancement of the constitutive activation probably attributed to the receptor conformational changes resulted from the mutations.

Screening and testing for endocrine disruption in fish-biomarkers as "signposts," not "traffic lights," in risk assessment

Biomarkers are currently best used as mechanistic "signposts" rather than as "traffic lights" in the environmental risk assessment of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs). In field studies, biomarkers of exposure [e.g., vitellogenin (VTG) induction in male fish] are powerful tools for tracking single substances and mixtures of concern. Biomarkers also provide linkage between field and laboratory data, thereby playing an important role in directing the need for and design of fish chronic tests for EDCs. It is the adverse effect end points (e.g., altered development, growth, and/or reproduction) from such tests that are most valuable for calculating adverseNOEC (no observed effect concentration) or adverseEC10 (effective concentration for a 10% response) and subsequently deriving predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs). With current uncertainties, biomarkerNOEC or biomarkerEC10 data should not be used in isolation to derive PNECs. In the future, however, there may be scope to increasingly use biomarker data in environmental decision making, if plausible linkages can be made across levels of organization such that adverse outcomes might be envisaged relative to biomarker responses. For biomarkers to fulfil their potential, they should be mechanistically relevant and reproducible (as measured by interlaboratory comparisons of the same protocol). VTG is a good example of such a biomarker in that it provides an insight to the mode of action (estrogenicity) that is vital to fish reproductive health. Interlaboratory reproducibility data for VTG are also encouraging; recent comparisons (using the same immunoassay protocol) have provided coefficients of variation (CVs) of 38-55% (comparable to published CVs of 19-58% for fish survival and growth end points used in regulatory test guidelines). While concern over environmental xenoestrogens has led to the evaluation of reproductive biomarkers in fish, it must be remembered that many substances act via diverse mechanisms of action such that the environmental risk assessment for EDCs is a broad and complex issue. Also, biomarkers such as secondary sexual characteristics, gonadosomatic indices, plasma steroids, and gonadal histology have significant potential for guiding interspecies assessments of EDCs and designing fish chronic tests. To strengthen the utility of EDC biomarkers in fish, we need to establish a historical control database (also considering natural variability) to help differentiate between statistically detectable versus biologically significant responses. In conclusion, as research continues to develop a range of useful EDC biomarkers, environmental decision-making needs to move forward, and it is proposed that the "biomarkers as signposts" approach is a pragmatic way forward in the current risk assessment of EDCs.

Deregulated ephrin-B2 expression in the mammary gland interferes with the development of both the glandular epithelium and vasculature and promotes metastasis formation

Eph receptor tyrosine kinases and their membrane-bound ephrin ligands play key roles during morphogenesis and adult tissue homeostasis. Receptor-ligand interactions result in forward and reverse signalling from the receptor and ligand respectively. To delineate the role(s) of forward and reverse signalling in mammary gland biology we have established transgenic mice exhibiting mammary epithelial-specific overexpression of either the native ephrin-B2 or a dominant negative ephrin-B2 mutant incapable of reverse signalling. During pregnancy and lactation overexpression of the native ephrin-B2 resulted in precocious differentiation, whereas overexpression of mutated ephrin-B2 caused delayed epithelial differentiation and in disturbed tissue architecture. Both transgenes affected also mammary vascularisation. Whereas ephrin-B2 induced superfluous but organised capillaries, mutant ephrin-B2 overexpression resulted in an irregular vasculature with blind-ending capillaries. Mammary tumours were not observed in either transgenic line, however, the crossing with NeuT transgenic animals revealed that mutated ephrin-B2 expression significantly accelerated tumour growth and imposed a metastatic phenotype.

Solute transport in crystalline rocks at Äspö — I: Geological basis and model calibration

Water-conducting faults and fractures were studied in the granite-hosted A¨ spo¨ Hard Rock Laboratory (SE Sweden). On a scale of decametres and larger, steeply dipping faults dominate and contain a variety of different fault rocks (mylonites, cataclasites, fault gouges). On a smaller scale, somewhat less regular fracture patterns were found. Conceptual models of the fault and fracture geometries and of the properties of rock types adjacent to fractures were derived and used as input for the modelling of in situ dipole tracer tests that were conducted in the framework of the Tracer Retention Understanding Experiment (TRUE-1) on a scale of metres. After the identification of all relevant transport and retardation processes, blind predictions of the breakthroughs of conservative to moderately sorbing tracers were calculated and then compared with the experimental data. This paper provides the geological basis and model calibration, while the predictive and inverse modelling work is the topic of the companion paper [J. Contam. Hydrol. 61 (2003) 175]. The TRUE-1 experimental volume is highly fractured and contains the same types of fault rocks and alterations as on the decametric scale. The experimental flow field was modelled on the basis of a 2D-streamtube formalism with an underlying homogeneous and isotropic transmissivity field. Tracer transport was modelled using the dual porosity medium approach, which is linked to the flow model by the flow porosity. Given the substantial pumping rates in the extraction borehole, the transport domain has a maximum width of a few centimetres only. It is concluded that both the uncertainty with regard to the length of individual fractures and the detailed geometry of the network along the flowpath between injection and extraction boreholes are not critical because flow is largely one-dimensional, whether through a single fracture or a network. Process identification and model calibration were based on a single uranine breakthrough (test PDT3), which clearly showed that matrix diffusion had to be included in the model even over the short experimental time scales, evidenced by a characteristic shape of the trailing edge of the breakthrough curve. Using the geological information and therefore considering limited matrix diffusion into a thin fault gouge horizon resulted in a good fit to the experiment. On the other hand, fresh granite was found not to interact noticeably with the tracers over the time scales of the experiments. While fracture-filling gouge materials are very efficient in retarding tracers over short periods of time (hours–days), their volume is very small and, with time progressing, retardation will be dominated by altered wall rock and, finally, by fresh granite. In such rocks, both porosity (and therefore the effective diffusion coefficient) and sorption Kds are more than one order of magnitude smaller compared to fault gouge, thus indicating that long-term retardation is expected to occur but to be less pronounced.

Next-generation sequencing of HIV-1 RNA genomes: determination of error rates and minimizing artificial recombination.

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is a valuable tool for the detection and quantification of HIV-1 variants in vivo. However, these technologies require detailed characterization and control of artificially induced errors to be applicable for accurate haplotype reconstruction. To investigate the occurrence of substitutions, insertions, and deletions at the individual steps of RT-PCR and NGS, 454 pyrosequencing was performed on amplified and non-amplified HIV-1 genomes. Artificial recombination was explored by mixing five different HIV-1 clonal strains (5-virus-mix) and applying different RT-PCR conditions followed by 454 pyrosequencing. Error rates ranged from 0.04-0.66% and were similar in amplified and non-amplified samples. Discrepancies were observed between forward and reverse reads, indicating that most errors were introduced during the pyrosequencing step. Using the 5-virus-mix, non-optimized, standard RT-PCR conditions introduced artificial recombinants in a fraction of at least 30% of the reads that subsequently led to an underestimation of true haplotype frequencies. We minimized the fraction of recombinants down to 0.9-2.6% by optimized, artifact-reducing RT-PCR conditions. This approach enabled correct haplotype reconstruction and frequency estimations consistent with reference data obtained by single genome amplification. RT-PCR conditions are crucial for correct frequency estimation and analysis of haplotypes in heterogeneous virus populations. We developed an RT-PCR procedure to generate NGS data useful for reliable haplotype reconstruction and quantification.

Evaluation of 9 biomarkers for predicting 10-year cardiovascular risk in patients undergoing coronary angiography: findings from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study.

BACKGROUND Conventional factors do not fully explain the distribution of cardiovascular outcomes. Biomarkers are known to participate in well-established pathways associated with cardiovascular disease, and may therefore provide further information over and above conventional risk factors. This study sought to determine whether individual and/or combined assessment of 9 biomarkers improved discrimination, calibration and reclassification of cardiovascular mortality. METHODS 3267 patients (2283 men), aged 18-95 years, at intermediate-to-high-risk of cardiovascular disease were followed in this prospective cohort study. Conventional risk factors and biomarkers were included based on forward and backward Cox proportional stepwise selection models. RESULTS During 10-years of follow-up, 546 fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Four biomarkers (interleukin-6, neutrophils, von Willebrand factor, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D) were retained during stepwise selection procedures for subsequent analyses. Simultaneous inclusion of these biomarkers significantly improved discrimination as measured by the C-index (0.78, P = 0.0001), and integrated discrimination improvement (0.0219, P<0.0001). Collectively, these biomarkers improved net reclassification for cardiovascular death by 10.6% (P<0.0001) when added to the conventional risk model. CONCLUSIONS In terms of adverse cardiovascular prognosis, a biomarker panel consisting of interleukin-6, neutrophils, von Willebrand factor, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D offered significant incremental value beyond that conveyed by simple conventional risk factors.

Effects of elevation and land use on the biomass of trees, shrubs and herbs at Mount Kilimanjaro

The protection and sustainable management of forest carbon stocks, particularly in the tropics, is a key factor in the mitigation of global change effects. However, our knowledge of how land use and elevation affect carbon stocks in tropical ecosystems is very limited. We compared aboveground biomass of trees, shrubs and herbs for eleven natural and human-influenced habitat types occurring over a wide elevation gradient (866–4550 m) at the world's highest solitary mountain, Mount Kilimanjaro. Thanks to the enormous elevation gradient, we covered important natural habitat types, e.g., savanna woodlands, montane rainforest and afro-alpine vegetation, as well as important land-use types such as maize fields, grasslands, traditional home gardens, coffee plantations and selectively logged forest. To assess tree and shrub biomass with pantropical allometric equations, we measured tree height, diameter at breast height and wood density and to assess herbaceous biomass, we sampled destructively. Among natural habitats, tree biomass was highest at intermediate elevation in the montane zone (340 Mg ha−1), shrub biomass declined linearly from 7 Mg ha−1 at 900 m to zero above 4000 m, and, inverse to tree biomass, herbaceous biomass was lower at mid-elevations (1 Mg ha−1) than in savannas (900 m, 3 Mg ha−1) or alpine vegetation (above 4000 m, 6 Mg ha−1). While the various land-use types dramatically decreased woody biomass at all elevations, though to various degrees, herbaceous biomass was typically increased. Our study highlights tropical montane forest biomass as important aboveground carbon stock and quantifies the extent of the strong aboveground biomass reductions by the major land-use types, common to East Africa. Further, it shows that elevation and land use differently affect different vegetation strata, and thus the matrix for other organisms.

Comparisons between analogue and numerical models of thrust wedge development

Analogue and finite element numerical models with frictional and viscous properties are used to model thrust wedge development. Comparison between model types yields valuable information about analogue model evolution, scaling laws and the relative strengths and limitations of the techniques. Both model types show a marked contrast in structural style between ‘frictional-viscous domains’ underlain by a thin viscous layer and purely ‘frictional domains’. Closely spaced thrusts form a narrow and highly asymmetric fold-and-thrust belt in the frictional domain, characterized by in-sequence propagation of forward thrusts. In contrast, the frictional-viscous domain shows a wide and low taper wedge and a thrust belt with a more symmetrical vergence, with both forward and back thrusts. The frictional-viscous domain numerical models show that the viscous layer initially simple shears as deformation propagates along it, while localized deformation resulting in the formation of a pop-up structure occurs in the overlying frictional layers. In both domains, thrust shear zones in the numerical model are generally steeper than the equivalent faults in the analogue model, because the finite element code uses a non-associated plasticity flow law. Nevertheless, the qualitative agreement between analogue and numerical models is encouraging. It shows that the continuum approximation used in numerical models can be used to model frictional materials, such as sand, provided caution is taken to properly scale the experiments, and some of the limitations are taken into account.

Confidence Bands for Convex Median Curves using Sign-Tests

Suppose that one observes pairs (x1,Y1), (x2,Y2), ..., (xn,Yn), where x1 < x2 < ... < xn are fixed numbers while Y1, Y2, ..., Yn are independent random variables with unknown distributions. The only assumption is that Median(Yi) = f(xi) for some unknown convex or concave function f. We present a confidence band for this regression function f using suitable multiscale sign tests. While the exact computation of this band seems to require O(n4) steps, good approximations can be obtained in O(n2) steps. In addition the confidence band is shown to have desirable asymptotic properties as the sample size n tends to infinity.

Marshall's Lemma for Convex Density Estimation

Marshall's (1970) lemma is an analytical result which implies root-n-consistency of the distribution function corresponding to the Grenander (1956) estimator of a non-decreasing probability density. The present paper derives analogous results for the setting of convex densities on [0,\infty).

Discovery of novel CB2 receptor ligands by a pharmacophore-based virtual screening workflow

Cannabinoid receptor 2 (CB(2) receptor) ligands are potential candidates for the therapy of chronic pain, inflammatory disorders, atherosclerosis, and osteoporosis. We describe the development of pharmacophore models for CB(2) receptor ligands, as well as a pharmacophore-based virtual screening workflow, which resulted in 14 hits for experimental follow-up. Seven compounds were identified with K(i) values below 25 microM. The CB(2) receptor-selective pyridine tetrahydrocannabinol analogue 8 (K(i) = 1.78 microM) was identified as a CB(2) partial agonist. Acetamides 12 (K(i) = 1.35 microM) and 18 (K(i) = 2.1 microM) represent new scaffolds for CB(2) receptor-selective antagonists and inverse agonists, respectively. Overall, our pharmacophore-based workflow yielded three novel scaffolds for the chemical development of CB(2) receptor ligands.

Mammary epithelial-specific knockout of the ephrin-B2 gene leads to precocious epithelial cell death at lactation

The family of Eph receptor tyrosine kinases and their membrane bound ligands, the ephrins, are involved in a wide variety of morphogenic processes during embryonic development and adult tissue homeostasis. Receptor-ligand interaction requires direct cell-cell contact and results in forward and reverse signaling originating from the receptor and ligand, respectively. We have previously shown that EphB4 and ephrinB2 are differentially expressed during the development of the adult mammary parenchyma. Overexpression of EphB4 in the mammary epithelium of transgenic mice leads to perturbations in mammary epithelial morphology, motility and growth. To investigate the role of ephrinB2 signaling in mammary gland biology, we have established transgenic mice exhibiting conditional ephrinB2 knockout in the mammary epithelium. In homozygote double transgenic CreLox mice, specific knockout of ephrinB2 occurred in the mammary epithelium during the first pregnancy-lactating period. Abolishing ephrinB2 function led to severe interference with the architecture and functioning of the mammary gland at lactation. The morphology of the transgenic lactating glands resembled that of involuting controls, with decreased epithelial cell number and collapsed lobulo-alveolar structures. Accordingly, massive epithelial cell death and expression of involution-specific genes were observed. Interestingly, in parallel to cell death, significant cell proliferation was apparent, suggestive of tissue regeneration.

Zebrafish (Danio rerio) as a model organism for investigating endocrine disruption

Endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) are widespread in the aquatic environment and can cause alterations in development, physiological homeostasis and health of vertebrates. Zebrafish, Danio rerio, has been suggested as a model species to identify targets as well as modes of EDC action. In fact, zebrafish has been found useful in EDC screening, in EDC effects assessment and in studying targets and mechanisms of EDC action. Since many of the environmental EDCs interfere with the sex steroid system of vertebrates, most EDC studies with zebrafish addressed disruption of sexual differentiation and reproduction. However, other targets of EDCs action must not be overlooked. For using a species as a toxicological model, a good knowledge of the biological traits of this species is a pre-requisite for the rational design of test protocols and endpoints as well as for the interpretation and extrapolation of the toxicological findings. Due to the genomic resources available for zebrafish and the long experience with zebrafish in toxicity testing, it is easily possible to establish molecular endpoints for EDC effects assessment. Additionally, the zebrafish model offers a number of technical advantages including ease and cost of maintenance, rapid development, high fecundity, optical transparency of embryos supporting phenotypic screening, existence of many mutant strains, or amenability for both forward and reverse genetics. To date, the zebrafish has been mainly used to identify molecular targets of EDC action and to determine effect thresholds, while the potential of this model species to study immediate and delayed physiological consequences of molecular interactions has been instrumentalized only partly. One factor that may limit the exploitation of this potential is the still rather fragmentary knowledge of basic biological and endocrine traits of zebrafish. Information on species-specific features in endocrine processes and biological properties, however, need to be considered in establishing EDC test protocols using zebrafish, in extrapolating findings from zebrafish to other vertebrate species, and in understanding how EDC-induced gene expression changes translate into disease.

Moving along the mental time line influences the processing of future related words

Abstract concepts like numbers or time are thought to be represented in the more concrete domain of space and the sensorimotor system. For example, thinking of past or future events has a physical manifestation in backward or forward body sway, respectively. In the present study, we investigated the reverse effect: can passive whole-body motion influence the processing of temporal information? Participants were asked to categorize verbal stimuli to the concepts future or past while they were displaced forward and backward (Experiment 1), or upward and downward (Experiment 2). The results showed that future related verbal stimuli were categorized faster during forward as compared to backward motion. This finding supports the view that temporal events are represented along a mental time line and that the sensorimotor system is linked to that representation. We showed that body motion is not just an epiphenomenon of temporal thoughts. Passive whole-body motion can influence higher-order temporal cognition.