Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

Laminar and turbulent nozzle-jet flows and their acoustic near-field

We investigate numerically the effects of nozzle-exit flow conditions on the jet-flow development and the near-field sound at a diameter-based Reynolds number of Re D = 18 100 and Mach number Ma = 0.9. Our computational setup features the inclusion of a cylindrical nozzle which allows to establish a physical nozzle-exit flow and therefore well-defined initial jet-flow conditions. Within the nozzle, the flow is modeled by a potential flow core and a laminar, transitional, or developing turbulent boundary layer. The goal is to document and to compare the effects of the different jet inflows on the jet flow development and the sound radiation. For laminar and transitional boundary layers, transition to turbulence in the jet shear layer is governed by the development of Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities. With the turbulent nozzle boundary layer, the jet flow development is characterized by a rapid changeover to a turbulent free shear layer within about one nozzle diameter. Sound pressure levels are strongly enhanced for laminar and transitional exit conditions compared to the turbulent case. However, a frequency and frequency-wavenumber analysis of the near-field pressure indicates that the dominant sound radiation characteristics remain largely unaffected. By applying a recently developed scaling procedure, we obtain a close match of the scaled near-field sound spectra for all nozzle-exit turbulence levels and also a reasonable agreement with experimental far-field data.

Patterns and controls of sediment production, transfer and yield in the Illgraben

Quantification of the volumes of sediment removed by rock–slope failure and debris flows and identification of their coupling and controls are pertinent to understanding mountain basin sediment yield and landscape evolution. This study captures a multi-decadal period of hillslope erosion and channel change following an extreme rock avalanche in 1961 in the Illgraben, a catchment prone to debris flows in the Swiss Alps. We analyzed photogrammetrically-derived datasets of hillslope and channel erosion and deposition along with climatic and seismic variables for a 43 year period from 1963 to 2005. Based on these analyses we identify and discuss (1) patterns of hillslope production, channel transfer and catchment sediment yield, (2) their dominant interactions with climatic and seismic variables, and (3) the nature of hillslope–channel coupling and implications for sediment yield and landscape evolution in this mountain basin. Our results show an increase in the mean hillslope erosion rate in the 1980s from 0.24 ± 0.01 m yr− 1 to 0.42 ± 0.03 m yr− 1 that coincided with a significant increase in air temperature and decrease in snow cover depth and duration, which we presume led to an increase in the exposure of the slopes to thermal weathering processes. The combination of highly fractured slopes close to the threshold angle for failure, and multiple potential triggering mechanisms, means that it is difficult to identify an individual control on slope failure. On the other hand, the rate of channel change was strongly related to variables influencing runoff. A period of particularly high channel erosion rate of 0.74 ± 0.02 m yr− 1 (1992–1998) coincided with an increase in the frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events. Hillslope erosion exceeded channel erosion on average, indicative of a downslope-directed coupling relationship between hillslope and channel, and demonstrating the first order control of rock–slope failure on catchment sediment yield and landscape evolution.

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress

Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+ 40%) and irrigation (+ 25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues.

Geological and hydrological histories of the Argyre province, Mars

The geologic history of the multi-ringed Argyre impact basin and surroundings has been reconstructed on the basis of geologic mapping and relative-age dating of rock materials and structures. The impact formed a primary basin, rim materials, and a complex basement structural fabric including faults and valleys that are radial and concentric about the primary basin, as well as structurally-controlled local basins. Since its formation, the basin has been a regional catchment for volatiles and sedimentary materials as well as a dominant influence on the flow of surface ice, debris flows, and groundwater through and over its basement structures. The basin is interpreted to have been occupied by lakes, including a possible Mediterranean-sized sea that formed in the aftermath of the Argyre impact event The hypothesized lakes froze and diminished through time, though liquid water may have remained beneath the ice cover and sedimentation may have continued for some time. At its deepest, the main Argyre lake may have taken more than a hundred thousand years to freeze to the bottom even absent any heat source besides the Sun, but with impact-induced hydrothermal heat, geothermal heat flow due to long-lived radioactivities in early martian history, and concentration of solutes in sub-ice brine, liquid water may have persisted beneath thick ice for many millions of years. Existence of an ice-covered sea perhaps was long enough for life to originate and evolve with gradually colder and more hypersaline conditions. The Argyre rock materials, diverse in origin and emplacement mechanisms, have been modified by impact, magmatic, eolian, fluvial, lacustrine, glacial, periglacial, alluvial, colluvial, and tectonic processes. Post-impact adjustment of part of the impact-generated basement structural fabric such as concentric faults is apparent. Distinct basin-stratigraphic units are interpreted to be linked to large-scale geologic activity far from the basin, including growth of the Tharsis magmatic-tectonic complex and the growth into southern middle latitudes of south polar ice sheets. Along with the migration of surface and sub-surface volatiles towards the central part of the primaiy basin, the substantial difference in elevation with respect to the surrounding highlands and Tharsis and the Thaumasia highlands result in the trapping of atmospheric volatiles within the basin in the form of fog and regional or local precipitation, even today. In addition, the impact event caused long-term (millions of years) hydrothermal activity, as well as deep-seated basement structures that have tapped the internal heat of Mars, as conduits, for far greater time, possibly even today. This possibility is raised by the observation of putative open-system pingos and nearby gullies that occur in linear depressions with accompanying systems of faults and fractures. Long-term water and heat energy enrichment, complemented by the interaction of the nutrient-enriched primordial crustal and mantle materials favorable to life excavated to the surface and near-surface environs through the Argyre impact event, has not only resulted in distinct geomorphology, but also makes the Argyre basin a potential site of exceptional astrobiological significance. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of lung recruitment maneuvers on splanchnic organ perfusion during endotoxin-induced pulmonary arterial hypertension

Lung recruitment maneuvers (RMs), used to reopen atelectatic lung units and to improve oxygenation during mechanical ventilation, may result in hemodynamic impairment. We hypothesize that pulmonary arterial hypertension aggravates the consequences of RMs in the splanchnic circulation. Twelve anesthetized pigs underwent laparotomy and prolonged postoperative ventilation. Systemic, regional, and organ blood flows were monitored. After 6 h (= baseline), a recruitment maneuver was performed with sustained inflation of the lungs. Thereafter, the pigs were randomly assigned to group C (control, n = 6) or group E with endotoxin-induced pulmonary arterial hypertension (n = 6). Endotoxemia resulted in a normotensive and hyperdynamic state and a deterioration of the oxygenation index by 33%. The RM was then repeated in both groups. Pulmonary artery pressure increased during lipopolysaccharide infusion from 17 ± 2 mmHg (mean ± SD) to 31 ± 10 mmHg and remained unchanged in controls (P < 0.05). During endotoxemia, RM decreased aortic pulse pressure from 37 ± 14 mmHg to 27 ± 13 mmHg (mean ± SD, P = 0.024). The blood flows of the renal artery, hepatic artery, celiac trunk, superior mesenteric artery, and portal vein decreased to 71% ± 21%, 69% ± 20%, 76% ± 16%, 79% ± 18%, and 81% ± 12%, respectively, of baseline flows before RM (P < 0.05 all). Organ perfusion of kidney cortex, kidney medulla, liver, and jejunal mucosa in group E decreased to 65% ± 19%, 77% ± 13%, 66% ± 26%, and 71% ± 12%, respectively, of baseline flows (P < 0.05 all). The corresponding recovery to at least 90% of baseline regional blood flow and organ perfusion lasted 1 to 5 min. Importantly, the decreases in regional blood flows and organ perfusion and the time to recovery of these flows did not differ from the controls. In conclusion, lipopolysaccharide-induced pulmonary arterial hypertension does not aggravate the RM-induced significant but short-lasting decreases in systemic, regional, and organ blood flows.

Managing Debris Flow Risks

Debris flows represent a widespread threat to villages and small towns in the Swiss Alps. For many centuries people “managed” such risks by trying to avoid hazardous areas. However, major debris flow and flood events in the last 25 years have revealed that the degree of freedom to engage in this type of risk management has substantially decreased. This became especially evident during the 1999 disasters in a number of places in Switzerland. The winter of that year was unusually wet. In February heavy snowfall triggered destructive avalanches. In May high temperatures caused heavy snowmelt, with excessive rainfall contributing more water to the already saturated soils. Landslides, debris flows and floods were triggered in many locations, including Sörenberg. Hazard prevention and disaster management have a long tradition in Switzerland, although an integrated approach to risk management is rather new. Only in recent years have methods and tools been developed to assess hazards, define protection goals, and implement disaster reduction measures. The case of Sörenberg serves as an example of how today's approaches to disaster reduction are implemented at the local level.

The Role of Goods Trade Networks for Services Trade Volume

In this paper, we address the role of countries’ goods-trade networks for their services-trade volume. The paper employs a large cross section of bilateral trade data on aggregate cross-border goods and services sales and illustrates that the depth and overlap of two countries’ services networks induce a positive direct impact on their services-trade volume. The evidence takes into account that goods trade flows and networks are potentially endogenous so that the estimated direct effects support a causal interpretation. We find that the magnitude of the multilateral goods-trade network effect on the bilateral services-trade volume is much larger than that of bilateral goods-trade volume.

Disciplining Investment Incentives: A Lost Cause?

An E15 Initiative think piece: Investment incentives rank among the most important policy instruments governments employ to influence the locational decisions of multinational firms. In the wake of the recent increase in locational competition and the growing impact of investment incentives and support measures for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the need for enhanced disciplines on investment incentives has gained political and academic salience. This think piece explores the evolution of investment incentives from a development and rule-making perspective. It summarises the existing literature and examines current practices and recent trends in FDI flows and the use of various investment incentives. This is followed by a discussion of the reasons for the observed stalemate in attempts at disciplinary rule-making. The paper concludes by putting forth recommendations for data gathering and transparency that could further the move toward improved global governance founded on the increasing complementarities of trade, investment, and competition law and policy as the core pillars of a more open, inclusive, and just world economy.