Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region

The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.

Complication and failure rates of fixed dental prostheses in patients treated for periodontal disease

Objectives: To evaluate the biological and technical complication rates of fixed dental prostheses (FDP) with end abutments or cantilever extensions on teeth (FDP-tt/cFDP-tt) on implants (FDP-ii/cFDP-ii) and tooth-implant-supported (FDP-ti/cFDP-ti) in patients treated for chronic periodontitis. Material and methods: From a cohort of 392 patients treated between 1978 and 2002 by graduate students, 199 were re-examined in 2005. Of these, 84 patients had received ceramo-metal FDPs (six groups). Results: At the re-evaluation, the mean age of the patients was 62 years (36.2–83.4). One hundred and seventy-five FDPs were seated (82 FDP-tt, 9 FDP-ii, 20 FDP-ti, 39 cFDP-tt, 15 cFDP-ii, 10 cFDP-ti). The mean observation time was 11.3 years; 21 FDPs were lost, and 46 technical and 50 biological complications occurred. Chances for the survival of the three groups of FDPs with end abutments were very high (risk for failure 2.8%, 0%, 5.6%). The probability to remain without complications and/or failure was 70.3%, 88.9% and 74.7% in FDPs with end abutments, but 49.8–25% only in FDPs with extensions at 10 years. Conclusions: In patients treated for chronic periodontitis and provided with ceramo-metal FDPs, high survival rates, especially for FDPs with end abutments, can be expected. The incidence rates of any negative events were increased drastically in the three groups with extension cFDPs (tt, ii, ti). Strategic decisions in the choice of a particular FDP design and the choice of teeth/implants as abutments appear to influence the risks for complications to be expected with fixed reconstruction. If possible, extensions on tooth abutments should be avoided or used only after a cautious clinical evaluation of all options.

Virologic failure and second-line antiretroviral therapy in children in South Africa--the IeDEA Southern Africa collaboration

Background: With expanding pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) access, children will begin to experience treatment failure and require second-line therapy. We evaluated the probability and determinants of virologic failure and switching in children in South Africa. Methods: Pooled analysis of routine individual data from children who initiated ART in 7 South African treatment programs with 6-monthly viral load and CD4 monitoring produced Kaplan-Meier estimates of probability of virologic failure (2 consecutive unsuppressed viral loads with the second being >1000 copies/mL, after ≥24 weeks of therapy) and switch to second-line. Cox-proportional hazards models stratified by program were used to determine predictors of these outcomes. Results: The 3-year probability of virologic failure among 5485 children was 19.3% (95% confidence interval: 17.6 to 21.1). Use of nevirapine or ritonavir alone in the initial regimen (compared with efavirenz) and exposure to prevention of mother to child transmission regimens were independently associated with failure [adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval): 1.77 (1.11 to 2.83), 2.39 (1.57 to 3.64) and 1.40 (1.02 to 1.92), respectively]. Among 252 children with ≥1 year follow-up after failure, 38% were switched to second-line. Median (interquartile range) months between failure and switch was 5.7 (2.9-11.0). Conclusions: Triple ART based on nevirapine or ritonavir as a single protease inhibitor seems to be associated with a higher risk of virologic failure. A low proportion of virologically failing children were switched.

The role of targeted viral load testing in diagnosing virological failure in children on antiretroviral therapy with immunological failure

Objectives  To determine the improvement in positive predictive value of immunological failure criteria for identifying virological failure in HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) when a single targeted viral load measurement is performed in children identified as having immunological failure. Methods  Analysis of data from children (<16 years at ART initiation) at South African ART sites at which CD4 count/per cent and HIV-RNA monitoring are performed 6-monthly. Immunological failure was defined according to both WHO 2010 and United States Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) 2008 criteria. Confirmed virological failure was defined as HIV-RNA >5000 copies/ml on two consecutive occasions <365 days apart in a child on ART for ≥18 months. Results  Among 2798 children on ART for ≥18 months [median (IQR) age 50 (21-84) months at ART initiation], the cumulative probability of confirmed virological failure by 42 months on ART was 6.3%. Using targeted viral load after meeting DHHS immunological failure criteria rather than DHHS immunological failure criteria alone increased positive predictive value from 28% to 82%. Targeted viral load improved the positive predictive value of WHO 2010 criteria for identifying confirmed virological failure from 49% to 82%. Conclusion  The addition of a single viral load measurement in children identified as failing immunologically will prevent most switches to second-line treatment in virologically suppressed children.

Accuracy of B-type natriuretic peptide tests to exclude congestive heart failure: systematic review of test accuracy studies

BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a major public health problem. The use of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) tests shows promising diagnostic accuracy. Herein, we summarize the evidence on the accuracy of BNP tests in the diagnosis of CHF and compare the performance of rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and standard radioimmunosorbent assay (RIA) tests. METHODS: We searched electronic databases and the reference lists of included studies, and we contacted experts. Data were extracted on the study population, the type of test used, and methods. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and summary ROC curves were produced and negative likelihood ratios pooled. Random-effect meta-analysis and metaregression were used to combine data and explore sources of between-study heterogeneity. RESULTS: Nineteen studies describing 22 patient populations (9 ELISA and 13 RIA) and 9093 patients were included. The diagnosis of CHF was verified by echocardiography, radionuclide scan, or echocardiography combined with clinical criteria. The pooled negative likelihood ratio overall from random-effect meta-analysis was 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-0.23). It was lower for the ELISA test (0.12; 95% CI, 0.09-0.16) than for the RIA test (0.23; 95% CI, 0.16-0.32). For a pretest probability of 20%, which is typical for patients with suspected CHF in primary care, a negative result of the ELISA test would produce a posttest probability of 2.9%; a negative RIA test, a posttest probability of 5.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The use of BNP tests to rule out CHF in primary care settings could reduce demand for echocardiography. The advantages of rapid ELISA tests need to be balanced against their higher cost.

Outcomes and patterns of failure in solitary plasmacytoma: a multicenter Rare Cancer Network study of 258 patients

PURPOSE: To assess the outcomes and patterns of failure in solitary plasmacytoma (SP). METHODS AND MATERIALS: The data from 258 patients with bone (n = 206) or extramedullary (n = 52) SP without evidence of multiple myeloma (MM) were collected. A histopathologic diagnosis was obtained for all patients. Most (n = 214) of the patients received radiotherapy (RT) alone; 34 received chemotherapy and RT, and 8 surgery alone. The median radiation dose was 40 Gy. The median follow-up was 56 months (range 7-245). RESULTS: The median time to MM development was 21 months (range 2-135), with a 5-year probability of 45%. The 5-year overall survival, disease-free survival, and local control rate was 74%, 50%, and 86%, respectively. On multivariate analyses, the favorable factors were younger age and tumor size <4 cm for survival; younger age, extramedullary localization, and RT for disease-free survival; and small tumor and RT for local control. Bone localization was the only predictor of MM development. No dose-response relationship was found for doses >30 Gy, even for larger tumors. CONCLUSION: Progression to MM remains the main problem. Patients with extramedullary SP had the best outcomes, especially when treated with moderate-dose RT. Chemotherapy and/or novel therapies should be investigated for bone or bulky extramedullary SP.

Prostaglandin E1 testing in heart failure-associated pulmonary hypertension enables transplantation: the PROPHET study

BACKGROUND: Elevated pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) is relevant to prognosis of congestive heart failure and heart transplantation. Proof of reversibility by pharmacologic testing in potential transplantation candidates is important because it indicates a reduced probability of right ventricular failure or death in the early post-transplant period. This study aimed to clarify the possible extent of acute reversibility of elevated PVR in a large, consecutive cohort of heart transplant candidates. METHODS: This study included 208 consecutive patients (age 52 +/- 10 years, 89% men and 11% women, ejection fraction 21 +/- 9%, Vo2max 12.6 +/- 4.2 ml/kg/min) being evaluated for heart transplantation in 7 transplant centers in Germany and Switzerland. Testing was performed with increasing intravenous doses of prostaglandin E1 (PGE1; average maximum dose 173 +/- 115 ng/kg/min for at least 10 minutes) in 92 patients exhibiting a baseline PVR of > 2.5 Wood units (WU) and/or a transpulmonary gradient (TPG) of > 12 mm Hg. RESULTS: PGE1 testing lowered PVR from 4.1 +/- 2.0 to 2.1 +/- 1.1 WU (p < 0.01), increased cardiac output from 3.8 +/- 1.0 to 5.0 +/- 1.5 liters/min (p < 0.01), and decreased TPG from 14 +/- 4 to 10 +/- 3 mm Hg (p < 0.01), mean pulmonary artery pressure (PAM) from 39 +/- 9 to 29 +/- 9 mm Hg (p < 0.01) and mean pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) from 24 +/- 7 to 19 +/- 9 mm Hg (p < 0.01). Mean aortic pressure (MAP) decreased to 85% and systemic vascular resistance (SVR) to 65% of baseline values (p < 0.01). Symptomatic systemic hypotension was not observed. For the whole population the percentage of patients with PVR > 2.5 WU was reduced from 44.2% to 10.5% with PGE1. PVR decreased in each patient; only 2 patients (1%) remained ineligible for listing because of a final PVR of > 4.0 WU. TPG, ejection fraction and male gender were independent predictors of reversibility of PVR. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated PVR in heart transplant candidates is highly reversible and can be normalized during acute pharmacologic testing with PGE1.

Tenofovir or zidovudine in second-line antiretroviral therapy after stavudine failure in southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is debate over using tenofovir or zidovudine alongside lamivudine in second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) following stavudine failure. We analyzed outcomes in cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe METHODS: Patients aged ≥16 years who switched from a first-line regimen including stavudine to a ritonavir-boosted lopinavir-based second-line regimen with lamivudine or emtricitabine and zidovudine or tenofovir in seven ART programs in southern Africa were included. We estimated the causal effect of receiving tenofovir or zidovudine on mortality and virological failure using Cox proportional hazards marginal structural models. Its parameters were estimated using inverse probability of treatment weights. Baseline characteristics were age, sex, calendar year and country. CD4 cell count, creatinine and hemoglobin levels were included as time-dependent confounders. RESULTS 1,256 patients on second-line ART, including 958 on tenofovir, were analyzed. Patients on tenofovir were more likely to have switched to second-line ART in recent years, spent more time on first-line ART (33 vs. 24 months) and had lower CD4 cell counts (172 vs. 341 cells/μl) at initiation of second-line ART. The adjusted hazard ratio comparing tenofovir with zidovudine was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.59-1.68) for virologic failure and 1.40 (0.57-3.41) for death. CONCLUSIONS We did not find any difference in treatment outcomes between patients on tenofovir or zidovudine; however, the precision of our estimates was limited. There is an urgent need for randomized trials to inform second-line ART strategies in resource-limited settings.

Distributed sensor failure detection in sensor networks

We investigate the problem of distributed sensors' failure detection in networks with a small number of defective sensors, whose measurements differ significantly from the neighbor measurements. We build on the sparse nature of the binary sensor failure signals to propose a novel distributed detection algorithm based on gossip mechanisms and on Group Testing (GT), where the latter has been used so far in centralized detection problems. The new distributed GT algorithm estimates the set of scattered defective sensors with a low complexity distance decoder from a small number of linearly independent binary messages exchanged by the sensors. We first consider networks with one defective sensor and determine the minimal number of linearly independent messages needed for its detection with high probability. We then extend our study to the multiple defective sensors detection by modifying appropriately the message exchange protocol and the decoding procedure. We show that, for small and medium sized networks, the number of messages required for successful detection is actually smaller than the minimal number computed theoretically. Finally, simulations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms methods based on random walks in terms of both detection performance and convergence rate.

Safety and Feasibility of a Diagnostic Algorithm Combining Clinical Probability, d-Dimer Testing, and Ultrasonography for Suspected Upper Extremity Deep Venous Thrombosis: A Prospective Management Study.

BACKGROUND Although well-established for suspected lower limb deep venous thrombosis, an algorithm combining a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography has not been evaluated for suspected upper extremity deep venous thrombosis (UEDVT). OBJECTIVE To assess the safety and feasibility of a new diagnostic algorithm in patients with clinically suspected UEDVT. DESIGN Diagnostic management study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01324037) SETTING: 16 hospitals in Europe and the United States. PATIENTS 406 inpatients and outpatients with suspected UEDVT. MEASUREMENTS The algorithm consisted of the sequential application of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography. Patients were first categorized as likely or unlikely to have UEDVT; in those with an unlikely score and normal d-dimer levels, UEDVT was excluded. All other patients had (repeated) compression ultrasonography. The primary outcome was the 3-month incidence of symptomatic UEDVT and pulmonary embolism in patients with a normal diagnostic work-up. RESULTS The algorithm was feasible and completed in 390 of the 406 patients (96%). In 87 patients (21%), an unlikely score combined with normal d-dimer levels excluded UEDVT. Superficial venous thrombosis and UEDVT were diagnosed in 54 (13%) and 103 (25%) patients, respectively. All 249 patients with a normal diagnostic work-up, including those with protocol violations (n = 16), were followed for 3 months. One patient developed UEDVT during follow-up, for an overall failure rate of 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0% to 2.2%). LIMITATIONS This study was not powered to show the safety of the substrategies. d-Dimer testing was done locally. CONCLUSION The combination of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography can safely and effectively exclude UEDVT. If confirmed by other studies, this algorithm has potential as a standard approach to suspected UEDVT. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE None.

Self-reported nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy as a predictor of viral failure and mortality.

OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on virologic failure and mortality in naive individuals starting ART. DESIGN Prospective observational cohort study. METHODS Eligible individuals enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, started ART between 2003 and 2012, and provided adherence data on at least one biannual clinical visit. Adherence was defined as missed doses (none, one, two, or more than two) and percentage adherence (>95, 90-95, and <90) in the previous 4 weeks. Inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models was used to estimate the effect of nonadherence on viral failure (HIV-1 viral load >500 copies/ml) and mortality. RESULTS Of 3150 individuals followed for a median 4.7 years, 480 (15.2%) experienced viral failure and 104 (3.3%) died, 1155 (36.6%) reported missing one dose, 414 (13.1%) two doses and, 333 (10.6%) more than two doses of ART. The risk of viral failure increased with each missed dose (one dose: hazard ratio [HR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.67; two doses: 2.15, 1.31-3.53; more than two doses: 5.21, 2.96-9.18). The risk of death increased with more than two missed doses (HR 4.87, 2.21-10.73). Missing one to two doses of ART increased the risk of viral failure in those starting once-daily (HR 1.67, 1.11-2.50) compared with those starting twice-daily regimens (HR 0.99, 0.64-1.54, interaction P = 0.09). Consistent results were found for percentage adherence. CONCLUSION Self-report of two or more missed doses of ART is associated with an increased risk of both viral failure and death. A simple adherence question helps identify patients at risk for negative clinical outcomes and offers opportunities for intervention.