Evolutionary demography of long-lived monocarpic perennials: a time-lagged integral projection model

1. The evolution of flowering strategies (when and at what size to flower) in monocarpic perennials is determined by balancing current reproduction with expected future reproduction, and these are largely determined by size-specific patterns of growth and survival. However, because of the difficulty in following long-lived individuals throughout their lives, this theory has largely been tested using short-lived species (< 5 years). 2. Here, we tested this theory using the long-lived monocarpic perennial Campanula thyrsoides which can live up to 16 years. We used a novel approach that combined permanent plot and herb chronology data from a 3-year field study to parameterize and validate integral projection models (IPMs). 3. Similar to other monocarpic species, the rosette leaves of C. thyrsoides wither over winter and so size cannot be measured in the year of flowering. We therefore extended the existing IPM framework to incorporate an additional time delay that arises because flowering demography must be predicted from rosette size in the year before flowering. 4. We found that all main demographic functions (growth, survival probability, flowering probability and fecundity) were strongly size-dependent and there was a pronounced threshold size of flowering. There was good agreement between the predicted distribution of flowering ages obtained from the IPMs and that estimated in the field. Mostly, there was good agreement between the IPM predictions and the direct quantitative field measurements regarding the demographic parameters lambda, R-0 and T. We therefore conclude that the model captures the main demographic features of the field populations. 5. Elasticity analysis indicated that changes in the survival and growth function had the largest effect (c. 80%) on lambda and this was considerably larger than in short-lived monocarps. We found only weak selection pressure operating on the observed flowering strategy which was close to the predicted evolutionary stable strategy. 6. Synthesis. The extended IPM accurately described the demography of a long-lived monocarpic perennial using data collected over a relatively short period. We could show that the evolution of flowering strategies in short- and long-lived monocarps seem to follow the same general rules but with a longevity-related emphasis on survival over fecundity.

State of the art: Reproduction and pregnancy in rheumatic diseases

Throughout the last decade, increasing awareness has been raised on issues related to reproduction in rheumatic diseases including basic research to clarify the important role of estrogens in the etiology and pathophysiology of immune/inflammatory diseases. Sub- or infertility is a heterogeneous condition that can be related to immunological mechanisms, to pregnancy loss, to disease burden, to therapy, and to choices in regard to family size. Progress in reproductive medicine has made it possible for more patients with rheumatic disease to have children. Active disease in women with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) affects their children's birth weight and may have long-term effects on their future health status. Pregnancy complications as preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction are still increased in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and antiphospholipid syndrome (APS), however, biomarkers can monitor adverse events, and several new therapies may improve outcomes. Pregnancies in women with APS remain a challenge, and better therapies for the obstetric APS are needed. New prospective studies indicate improved outcomes for pregnancies in women with rare diseases like systemic sclerosis and vasculitis. TNF inhibitors hold promise for maintaining remission in rheumatological patients and may be continued at least in the first half of pregnancy. Pre-conceptional counseling and interdisciplinary management of pregnancies are essential for ensuring optimal pregnancy outcomes.

Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced a confined rural outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases from July to October 2014. Understanding the transmission dynamics during the outbreak can provide important information for anticipating and controlling future EVD epidemics. I fitted an EVD transmission model to previously published data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 = 5.2 (95% CI [4.0-6.7]). The model suggests that the net reproduction number Rt fell below unity 28 days (95% CI [25-34] days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This study adds to previous epidemiological descriptions of the 2014 EVD outbreak in DRC, and is consistent with the notion that a rapid implementation of control interventions helped reduce further spread.