Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.

Comparative transcriptomics of extreme phenotypes of human HIV-1 infection and SIV infection in sooty mangabey and rhesus macaque

High levels of HIV-1 replication during the chronic phase of infection usually correlate with rapid progression to severe immunodeficiency. However, a minority of highly viremic individuals remains asymptomatic and maintains high CD4⁺ T cell counts. This tolerant profile is poorly understood and reminiscent of the widely studied nonprogressive disease model of SIV infection in natural hosts. Here, we identify transcriptome differences between rapid progressors (RPs) and viremic nonprogressors (VNPs) and highlight several genes relevant for the understanding of HIV-1-induced immunosuppression. RPs were characterized by a specific transcriptome profile of CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells similar to that observed in pathogenic SIV-infected rhesus macaques. In contrast, VNPs exhibited lower expression of interferon-stimulated genes and shared a common gene regulation profile with nonpathogenic SIV-infected sooty mangabeys. A short list of genes associated with VNP, including CASP1, CD38, LAG3, TNFSF13B, SOCS1, and EEF1D, showed significant correlation with time to disease progression when evaluated in an independent set of CD4⁺ T cell expression data. This work characterizes 2 minimally studied clinical patterns of progression to AIDS, whose analysis may inform our understanding of HIV pathogenesis.

Radiation doses along selected flight profiles during two extreme solar cosmic ray events

The radiation dose rates at flight altitudes may be hazardously increased during solar cosmic ray events. Within the scope of this paper we investigate the total accumulated radiation doses, i.e. the contribution of galactic and solar cosmic rays, during the two extreme solar cosmic ray events on 29 September 1989 and on 20 January 2005 along selected flight profiles. In addition, the paper discusses the consequences of possible solar cosmic ray flux approximations on the results of the radiation dose computations.

Intralesional bovine papillomavirus DNA loads reflect severity of equine sarcoid disease

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Sarcoids are nonmetastasising, yet locally aggressive skin tumours that constitute the most frequent neoplasm in equids. Infection by bovine papillomaviruses types 1 and 2 (BPV-1, BPV-2) has been recognised as major causative factor in sarcoid pathogenesis, but a possible correlation of intralesional virus load with disease severity has not been established thus far. HYPOTHESIS: Given the pathogenic role of BPV-1 and BPV-2 in sarcoid disease, we suggest that intralesional viral DNA concentration may reflect the degree of affection. METHODS: Severity of disease was addressed by recording the tumour growth kinetics, lesion number and tumour type for 37 sarcoid-bearing horses and one donkey. Viral load was estimated via quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) of the E2, E5, L1 and L2 genes from the BPV-1/-2 genome for one randomly selected lesion per horse and correlated with disease severity. RESULTS: Quantitative PCR against E2 identified viral DNA concentrations ranging from 0-556 copies/tumour cell. Of 16 horses affected by quiescent, slowly growing single tumours or multiple mild-type lesions, 15 showed a viral load up to 1.4 copies per cell. In stark contrast, all equids (22/22) bearing rapidly growing and/or multiple aggressive sarcoids had a viral load between 3 and 569 copies per cell. Consistent results were obtained with qPCR against E5, L1 and L2. CONCLUSIONS: While tumours of the same clinical type carried variable virus load, confirming that viral titre does not determine clinical appearance, we identified a highly significant correlation between intralesional viral load and disease severity. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: The rapid determination of BPV viral load will give a reliable marker for disease severity and may also be considered when establishing a therapeutic strategy.

Periodic breathing during ascent to extreme altitude quantified by spectral analysis of the respiratory volume signal

High altitude periodic breathing (PB) shares some common pathophysiologic aspects with sleep apnea, Cheyne-Stokes respiration and PB in heart failure patients. Methods that allow quantifying instabilities of respiratory control provide valuable insights in physiologic mechanisms and help to identify therapeutic targets. Under the hypothesis that high altitude PB appears even during physical activity and can be identified in comparison to visual analysis in conditions of low SNR, this study aims to identify PB by characterizing the respiratory pattern through the respiratory volume signal. A number of spectral parameters are extracted from the power spectral density (PSD) of the volume signal, derived from respiratory inductive plethysmography and evaluated through a linear discriminant analysis. A dataset of 34 healthy mountaineers ascending to Mt. Muztagh Ata, China (7,546 m) visually labeled as PB and non periodic breathing (nPB) is analyzed. All climbing periods within all the ascents are considered (total climbing periods: 371 nPB and 40 PB). The best crossvalidated result classifying PB and nPB is obtained with Pm (power of the modulation frequency band) and R (ratio between modulation and respiration power) with an accuracy of 80.3% and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 84.5%. Comparing the subjects from 1(st) and 2(nd) ascents (at the same altitudes but the latter more acclimatized) the effect of acclimatization is evaluated. SaO(2) and periodic breathing cycles significantly increased with acclimatization (p-value < 0.05). Higher Pm and higher respiratory frequencies are observed at lower SaO(2), through a significant negative correlation (p-value < 0.01). Higher Pm is observed at climbing periods visually labeled as PB with > 5 periodic breathing cycles through a significant positive correlation (p-value < 0.01). Our data demonstrate that quantification of the respiratory volume signal using spectral analysis is suitable to identify effects of hypobaric hypoxia on control of breathing.