18 resultados para Expropriation risk, Nationalization, Event study, Stock Market

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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Providing care to a spouse with Alzheimer's disease (AD) may contribute to cardiovascular disease (CVD). The acute phase reactant C-reactive protein (CRP) is a well-established biomarker of an increased CVD risk.

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RATIONALE: Copeptin independently predicts functional outcome and mortality at 90 days and one-year after ischemic stroke. In patients with transient ischemic attack, elevated copeptin values indicate an increased risk of further cerebrovascular events. AIMS: The Copeptin Risk Stratification (CoRisk) study aims to validate the predictive value of copeptin in patients with ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack. In patients with ischemic stroke, the CoRisk study aims to further explore the effect of treatment (i.e. thrombolysis) on the predictive value of copeptin. DESIGN: Prospective observational multicenter study analyzing three groups of patients, i.e. patients with ischemic stroke treated with and without thrombolysis and patients with transient ischemic attack. OUTCOMES: Primary end-point: In patients with ischemic stroke, the primary end-point includes disability (modified Rankin scale from 3 to 5) and mortality (modified Rankin scale 6) at three-months after stroke. In patients with transient ischemic attack, the primary end-point is a recurrent ischemic cerebrovascular event (i.e. ischemic stroke or recurrent transient ischemic attack). Secondary end-point: In patients with ischemic stroke, the secondary end-points include in-house complications (i.e. symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage, malignant edema, aspiration pneumonia or seizures during hospitalization, and in-house mortality).

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BACKGROUND Conventional factors do not fully explain the distribution of cardiovascular outcomes. Biomarkers are known to participate in well-established pathways associated with cardiovascular disease, and may therefore provide further information over and above conventional risk factors. This study sought to determine whether individual and/or combined assessment of 9 biomarkers improved discrimination, calibration and reclassification of cardiovascular mortality. METHODS 3267 patients (2283 men), aged 18-95 years, at intermediate-to-high-risk of cardiovascular disease were followed in this prospective cohort study. Conventional risk factors and biomarkers were included based on forward and backward Cox proportional stepwise selection models. RESULTS During 10-years of follow-up, 546 fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Four biomarkers (interleukin-6, neutrophils, von Willebrand factor, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D) were retained during stepwise selection procedures for subsequent analyses. Simultaneous inclusion of these biomarkers significantly improved discrimination as measured by the C-index (0.78, P = 0.0001), and integrated discrimination improvement (0.0219, P<0.0001). Collectively, these biomarkers improved net reclassification for cardiovascular death by 10.6% (P<0.0001) when added to the conventional risk model. CONCLUSIONS In terms of adverse cardiovascular prognosis, a biomarker panel consisting of interleukin-6, neutrophils, von Willebrand factor, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D offered significant incremental value beyond that conveyed by simple conventional risk factors.

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BACKGROUND: The traditional approach to stable blunt thoracic aortic injuries (TAI) is immediate repair, with delayed repair reserved for patients with major associated injuries. In recent years, there has been a trend toward delayed repair, even in low-risk patients. This study evaluates the current practices in the surgical community regarding the timing of aortic repair and its effects on outcomes. METHODS: This was a prospective, observational multicenter study sponsored by the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma. The study included patients with blunt TAI scheduled for aortic repair by open or endovascular procedure. Patients in extremis and those managed without aortic repair were excluded. The data collection included demographics, initial clinical presentation, Injury Severity Scores, type and site of aortic injury, type of aortic repair (open or endovascular repair), and time from injury to aortic repair. The study patients were divided into an early repair (< or = 24 hours) and delayed repair groups (> 24 hours). The outcome variables included survival, ventilator days, intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital lengths of stay, blood transfusions, and complications. The outcomes in the two groups were compared with multivariate analysis after adjusting for age, Glasgow Coma Scale, hypotension, major associated injuries, and type of aortic repair. A second multivariate analysis compared outcomes between early and delayed repair, in patients with and patients without major associated injuries. RESULTS: There were 178 patients with TAI eligible for inclusion and analysis, 109 (61.2%) of which underwent early repair and 69 (38.8%) delayed repair. The two groups had similar epidemiologic, injury severity, and type of repair characteristics. The adjusted mortality was significantly higher in the early repair group (adjusted OR [95% CI] 7.78 [1.69-35.70], adjusted p value = 0.008). The adjusted complication rate was similar in the two groups. However, delayed repair was associated with significantly longer ICU and hospital lengths of stay. Analysis of the 108 patients without major associated injuries, adjusting for age, Glasgow Coma Scale, hypotension, and type of aortic repair, showed that in early repair there was a trend toward higher mortality rate (adjusted OR 9.08 [0.88-93.78], adjusted p value = 0.064) but a significantly lower complication rate (adjusted OR 0.4 [0.18-0.96], adjusted p value 0.040) and shorter ICU stay (adjusted p value = 0.021) than the delayed repair group. A similar analysis of the 68 patients with major associated injuries, showed a strong trend toward higher mortality in the early repair group (adjusted OR 9.39 [0.93-95.18], adjusted p value = 0.058). The complication rate was similar in both groups (adjusted p value = 0.239). CONCLUSIONS: Delayed repair of stable blunt TAI is associated with improved survival, irrespective of the presence or not of major associated injuries. However, delayed repair is associated with a longer length of ICU stay and in the group of patients with no major associated injuries a significantly higher complication rate.

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Health-related quality of life (QoL) has been associated with several social and medical conditions in patients with deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). To the best of our knowledge, there is no study investigating the relationship of QoL with psychological variables in this patient population. We assumed as a hypothesis an association between heightened levels of fatigue and psychological distress, as well as decreased QoL in patients with an objectively diagnosed venous thromboembolic event. Study participants were 205 consecutively enrolled out-patients (47.4 years, 54.6% men) with DVT and/or PE. Approximately 10 days before blood collection for thrombophilia work-up, QoL, fatigue, and psychological distress were assessed using the Short Form Health Survey (SF-12), the Multidimensional Fatigue Symptom Inventory Short Form (MFSI-SF) as well as the Hospitality Anxiety and Depression scale (HADS). After controlling for demographic and medical factors, fatigue (p < 0.01) but not psychological distress (p>0.05) was negatively associated with physical QoL, explaining 11.0% of the variance. Fatigue (p < 0.001) and psychological distress (p < 0.001) were significant predictors of mental QoL, explaining an additional 36.2% and 3.6% of the variance. Further analyses revealed that all subscales of the HADS (e.g. anxiety and depression) and of the MFSI-SF (e.g. general fatigue, physical fatigue, emotional fatigue, mental fatigue and vigor) were significant predictors of mental QoL. MFSI-SF subscales also predicted physical QoL. The findings suggest that fatigue and psychological distress substantially predict QoL in patients with a previous venous thromboembolic event above and beyond demographic factors.

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Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.

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Background The identification of additional prognostic markers to improve risk stratification and to avoid overtreatment is one of the most urgent clinical needs in prostate cancer (PCa). MicroRNAs, being important regulators of gene expression, are promising biomarkers in various cancer entities, though the impact as prognostic predictors in PCa is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to identify specific miRNAs as potential prognostic markers in high-risk PCa and to validate their clinical impact. Methodology and Principal Findings We performed miRNA-microarray analysis in a high-risk PCa study group selected by their clinical outcome (clinical progression free survival (CPFS) vs. clinical failure (CF)). We identified seven candidate miRNAs (let-7a/b/c, miR-515-3p/5p, -181b, -146b, and -361) that showed differential expression between both groups. Further qRT-PCR analysis revealed down-regulation of members of the let-7 family in the majority of a large, well-characterized high-risk PCa cohort (n = 98). Expression of let-7a/b/and -c was correlated to clinical outcome parameters of this group. While let-7a showed no association or correlation with clinical relevant data, let-7b and let-7c were associated with CF in PCa patients and functioned partially as independent prognostic marker. Validation of the data using an independent high-risk study cohort revealed that let-7b, but not let-7c, has impact as an independent prognostic marker for BCR and CF. Furthermore, we identified HMGA1, a non-histone protein, as a new target of let-7b and found correlation of let-7b down-regulation with HMGA1 over-expression in primary PCa samples. Conclusion Our findings define a distinct miRNA expression profile in PCa cases with early CF and identified let-7b as prognostic biomarker in high-risk PCa. This study highlights the importance of let-7b as tumor suppressor miRNA in high-risk PCa and presents a basis to improve individual therapy for high-risk PCa patients.

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This paper introduces a new rationale for the existence of “Directors’ and Officers’” (D&O) insurance. We use a model with volatile stock markets where shareholders design compensation schemes that incentivize managers to stimulate short-term increases in stock prices that do not maximize long run stock market value. We show that D&O insurance provides a convenient instrument for the initial shareholders of a company to take advantage of differences in beliefs between insiders and outsiders in capital markets. The empirical results support the idea that both the insurance coverage and the premium are higher in the presence of new shareholders and volatile markets. The results prove robust in various empirical model specifications.

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Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.

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Smoking not only increases the risk that coronary heart disease will develop but also morbidity and mortality in patients with known coronary atherosclerosis and after coronary artery bypass grafting. Excessive generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) has been implicated as the final common pathway for the development of endothelial dysfunction in various cardiovascular risk factors. This study assessed the influence of smoking on two different human arteries routinely used as coronary artery bypass graft conduits.

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OBJECTIVE: Data about vitamin B12 (B12) deficiency in the general population are scarce. The present study was performed to determine the prevalence of B12 deficiency in the general population of the Principality of Liechtenstein, as well as to identify sub-populations potentially at high risk. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Ambulatory setting, population of the Principality of Liechtenstein. SUBJECTS: Seven thousand four hundred and twenty-four patients seeking medical attention whose serum samples were referred for routine work-up in an ambulatory setting were consecutively enrolled. Serum total B12 was determined in all patients in this cohort. In addition, for a subgroup of 1328 patients, serum holotranscobalamin was also measured. Prevalence of B12 deficiency was calculated. Further, multivariate logistical regression models were applied to identify covariates independently associated with B12 deficiency and depletion. RESULTS: Nearly 8 % of the general population was suffering from either B12 depletion or deficiency. The ratio between B12 depletion and deficiency was 2:1 for all age ranges. Pathological changes were detected predominantly in older people. Female gender was a significant predictor of B12 depletion. In the cohort, nearly 40 % exhibited either depletion or deficiency of B12. CONCLUSIONS: B12 depletion and deficiency are common in Liechtenstein, a Central European country. The measurement of biochemical markers represents a cost-efficient and valid assessment of the B12 state. When a deficiency of B12 is diagnosed at an early stage, many cases can be treated or prevented, with beneficial effects on individual outcomes and subsequent potential reductions in health-care costs.

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Published opinions regarding the outcomes and complications in older patients have a broad spectrum and there is a disagreement whether surgery in older patients entails a higher risk. Therefore this study examines the risk of surgery for lumbar spinal stenosis relative to age in the pooled data set of the Spine Tango registry.