Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Sleep and wakefulness disturbances in Swiss pharmacy customers

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Sleep disturbances are prevalent but often overlooked or underestimated. We suspected that sleep disorders might be particularly common among pharmacy customers, and that they could benefit from counselling. Therefore, we described the prevalence and severity of symptoms associated with sleep and wakefulness disorders among Swiss pharmacy customers, and estimated the need for counselling and treatment. METHODS: In 804 Swiss pharmacies (49% of all community pharmacies) clients were invited to complete the Stanford Sleep Disorders Questionnaire (SDQ), and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (EPW). The SDQ was designed to classify symptoms of sleep and wakefulness into the four most prevalent disorders: sleep apnoea syndrome (SAS), insomnia in psychiatric disorders (PSY), periodic leg movement disorders/restless legs (RLS) and narcolepsy (NAR). Data were entered into an internet-linked database for analysis by an expert system as a basis for immediate counselling by the pharmacist. RESULTS: Of 4901 participants, 3238 (66.1%) were female, and 1663 (33.9%) were male. The mean age (SD) of females and males was 52.4 (18.05), and 55.1 (17.10) years, respectively. The percentages of female and male individuals above cut-off of SDQ subscales were 11.4% and 19.8% for sleep apnoea, 40.9% and 38.7% for psychiatric sleep disorders, 59.3% and 46.8% for restless legs, and 10.4% and 9.4% for narcolepsy respectively. The prevalence of an Epworth Sleepiness Scale score >11 was 16.5% in females, and 23.9% in males. Reliability assessed by Cronbach's alpha was 0.65 to 0.78 for SDQ subscales, and for the Epworth score. CONCLUSIONS: Symptoms of sleep and wakefulness disorders among Swiss pharmacy customers were highly prevalent. The SDQ and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale score had a satisfactory reliability to be useful for identification of pharmacy customers who might benefit from information and counselling while visiting pharmacies. The internet-based system proved to be a helpful tool for the pharmacist when counselling his customers in terms of diagnostic classification and severity of symptoms associated with the sleeping and waking state.

International horse movements and spread of equine diseases: Equine Infectious Anaemia and Glanders - two examples

International trade with horses is important and continuously increasing. Therefore the risk of spread of infectious diseases is permanently present. Within this context the worldwide situation of equine vector-borne diseases and of other diseases which are notifiable to the World Organisation of Animal Health (OIE), is described. Furthermore it provides estimates of the numbers of horse movements between these countries, as well as information on import requirements and preventive measures for reducing the risk of disease spread. According to TRACES (Trade Control and Expert System of the European Union) data from 2009 and 2010 81 horses per week were imported from North America into Europe, 42 horses per week from South America, 11 horses per week from the North of Africa and the African horse sichness free-zone of South Africa, 28 per week from the Middle East and the rest of Asia and approximately 4 horses per week from Australia / Oceania. Trade within the European Union resulted amongst others in the introduction of Equine Infectious Anaemia (EIA) from Roma- nia into other European countries. Another example is the suspected case of glanders which occurred after importation of horses from Leb- anon via France and Germany into Switzerland in July 2011.