Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence.

Systematic consideration of scientific support is a critical element in developing and, ultimately, using adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for various regulatory applications. Though weight of evidence (WoE) analysis has been proposed as a basis for assessment of the maturity and level of confidence in an AOP, methodologies and tools are still being formalized. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Users' Handbook Supplement to the Guidance Document for Developing and Assessing AOPs (OECD 2014a; hereafter referred to as the OECD AOP Handbook) provides tailored Bradford-Hill (BH) considerations for systematic assessment of confidence in a given AOP. These considerations include (1) biological plausibility and (2) empirical support (dose-response, temporality, and incidence) for Key Event Relationships (KERs), and (3) essentiality of key events (KEs). Here, we test the application of these tailored BH considerations and the guidance outlined in the OECD AOP Handbook using a number of case examples to increase experience in more transparently documenting rationales for assigned levels of confidence to KEs and KERs, and to promote consistency in evaluation within and across AOPs. The major lessons learned from experience are documented, and taken together with the case examples, should contribute to better common understanding of the nature and form of documentation required to increase confidence in the application of AOPs for specific uses. Based on the tailored BH considerations and defining questions, a prototype quantitative model for assessing the WoE of an AOP using tools of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is described. The applicability of the approach is also demonstrated using the case example aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish. Following the acquisition of additional experience in the development and assessment of AOPs, further refinement of parameterization of the model through expert elicitation is recommended. Overall, the application of quantitative WoE approaches hold promise to enhance the rigor, transparency and reproducibility for AOP WoE determinations and may play an important role in delineating areas where research would have the greatest impact on improving the overall confidence in the AOP.

Addressing schemes of self-monitoring of blood glucose in type 2 diabetes: a European perspective and expert recommendation

Self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) in type 2 diabetes has increasingly been shown to display beneficial effects on glycemic control. SMBG is not only associated with a reduction of hemoglobin A1c but has also been demonstrated to increase patients' awareness of the disease. SMBG has also the potential to visualize and predict hypoglycemic episodes. International guidelines by the International Diabetes Federation, the European Society of Cardiology, and the European Association for the Study of Diabetes and also the International Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Diabetes emphasize that SMBG is an integral part of self-management. More recently, two European consensus documents have been published to give recommendations for frequency and timing of SMBG also for various clinical scenarios. Recently, a European expert panel was held to further facilitate and enhance standardized approaches to SMBG. The aim was to present simple, clinically meaningful, and standardized SMBG strategies for type 2 diabetes. The panel recommended a less intensive and an intensive scheme for SMBG across the type 2 diabetes continuum. The length and frequency of SMBG performance depend on the clinical circumstances and the quality of glycemic control. The expert panel also recommended further evaluation of various schemes for SMBG in type 2 diabetes in clinical studies.

The role of self-monitoring of blood glucose in glucagon-like Peptide-1-based treatment approaches: a European expert recommendation

The role of glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1-based treatment approaches for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasing. Although self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) has been performed in numerous studies on GLP-1 analogs and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, the potential role of SMBG in GLP-1-based treatment strategies has not been elaborated. The expert recommendation suggests individualized SMBG strategies in GLP-1-based treatment approaches and suggests simple and clinically applicable SMBG schemes. Potential benefits of SMBG in GLP-1-based treatment approaches are early assessment of treatment success or failure, timely modification of treatment, detection of hypoglycemic episodes, assessment of glucose excursions, and support of diabetes management and diabetes education. Its length and frequency should depend on the clinical setting and the quality of metabolic control. It is considered to play an important role for the optimization of diabetes management in T2DM patients treated with GLP-1-based approaches.

Interdisciplinary expert consensus document on management of type B aortic dissection

An expert multidisciplinary panel in the treatment of type B aortic dissection reviewed available literature to develop treatment algorithms using a consensus method. Data from 63 studies published from 2006 to 2012 were retrieved for a total of 1,548 patients treated medically, 1,706 patients who underwent open surgery, and 3,457 patients who underwent thoracic endovascular repair (TEVAR). For acute (first 2 weeks) type B aortic dissection, the pooled early mortality rate was 6.4% with medical treatment and increased to 10.2% with TEVAR and 17.5% with open surgery, mostly for complicated cases. Limited data for treatment of subacute (2 to 6 weeks after onset) type B aortic dissection showed an early mortality rate of 2.8% with TEVAR. In chronic (after 6 weeks) type B aortic dissection, 5-year survival of 60% to 80% was expected with medical therapy because complications were likely. If interventional treatment was applied, the pooled early mortality rate was 6.6% with TEVAR and 8.0% with open surgery. Medical treatment of uncomplicated acute, subacute, and chronic type B aortic dissection is managed with close image monitoring. Hemodynamic instability, organ malperfusion, increasing periaortic hematoma, and hemorrhagic pleural effusion on imaging identify patients with complicated acute type B aortic dissection requiring urgent aortic repair. Recurrence of symptoms, aortic aneurysmal dilation (>55 mm), or a yearly increase of >4 mm after the acute phase are predictors of adverse outcome and need for delayed aortic repair ("complicated chronic aortic dissections"). The expert panel is aware that this consensus document provides proposal for strategies based on nonrobust evidence for management of type B aortic dissection, and that literature results were largely heterogeneous and should be interpreted cautiously.