17 resultados para Expected a posteriori

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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Waterproofing agents are widely used to protect leather and textiles in both domestic and occupational activities. An outbreak of acute respiratory syndrome following exposure to waterproofing sprays occurred during the winter 2002-2003 in Switzerland. About 180 cases were reported by the Swiss Toxicological Information Centre between October 2002 and March 2003, whereas fewer than 10 cases per year had been recorded previously. The reported cases involved three brands of sprays containing a common waterproofing mixture, that had undergone a formulation change in the months preceding the outbreak. A retrospective analysis was undertaken in collaboration with the Swiss Toxicological Information Centre and the Swiss Registries for Interstitial and Orphan Lung Diseases to clarify the circumstances and possible causes of the observed health effects. Individual exposure data were generated with questionnaires and experimental emission measurements. The collected data was used to conduct numeric simulation for 102 cases of exposure. A classical two-zone model was used to assess the aerosol dispersion in the near- and far-field during spraying. The resulting assessed dose and exposure levels obtained were spread on large scales, of several orders of magnitude. No dose-response relationship was found between exposure indicators and health effects indicators (perceived severity and clinical indicators). Weak relationships were found between unspecific inflammatory response indicators (leukocytes, C-reactive protein) and the maximal exposure concentration. The results obtained disclose a high interindividual response variability and suggest that some indirect mechanism(s) predominates in the respiratory disease occurrence. Furthermore, no threshold could be found to define a safe level of exposure. These findings suggest that the improvement of environmental exposure conditions during spraying alone does not constitute a sufficient measure to prevent future outbreaks of waterproofing spray toxicity. More efficient preventive measures are needed prior to the marketing and distribution of new waterproofing agents.

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OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate the feasibility of panoramic image subtraction for implant assessment. STUDY DESIGN: Three titanium implants were inserted into a fresh pig mandible. One intraoral and 2 panoramic images were obtained at baseline and after each of 6 incremental (0.3, 0.6, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 mm) removals of bone. For each incremental removal of bone, the mandible was removed from and replaced in the holding device. Images representing incremental bone removals were registered by computer with the baseline images and subtracted. Assessment of the subtraction images was based on visual inspection and analysis of structured noise. RESULTS: Incremental bone removals were more visible in intraoral than in panoramic subtraction images; however, computer-based registration of panoramic images reduced the structured noise and enhanced the visibility of incremental removals. CONCLUSION: The feasibility of panoramic image subtraction for implant assessment was demonstrated.

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A main mechanism behind the change in European and North American societies in the second half of the 20th century is the educational expansion, i.e. the increase in educational opportunities and the higher demand for education. Whereas other abstract social processes like modernization have been widely theorized in social science literature, the educational expansion and its consequences in particular have not been well studied. Therefore the main aim of this compilation is to deal with the question of whether the demands of the educational reforms have been fulfilled and which other consequences the educational expansion has had. This book will focus on consequences of the educational expansion for individuals and their life courses as well as for the social structure and other societal areas such as culture and politics. Aspects that will be analysed in the light of educational expansion include participation in education, educational inequalities, labour market outcomes, educational returns, and gender differences as well as crime, life expectancy, and lifestyles. Countries analysed in the book include West European countries like Germany, France, Italy and Spain, East European countries (Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic) as well as the US.

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A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN.

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This investigation attempts to answer the question why more and more parents have chosen the Gymnasium for their children's secondary school education in post‐war West Germany. Based on the theory of subjective expected utility, the crucial mechanisms of parental educational decisions have been emphasized. From this perspective it is assumed that increasing educational motivation coupled with changes in the subjective evaluation of the cost–benefit of education were important conditions for an increasing participation in upper secondary schools. These were, however, in turn, the result of educational expansion. The empirical analyses for three time‐periods in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s confirm these assumptions to a large degree. Additionally, empirical evidence was found to suggest that in addition to the intentions of parents and the educational career of their children, structural moments of educational expansion and their own inertia played an important role in the pupils' transition from one educational level to the next. Finally, evidence was found that persistent class‐specific educational inequality stems from a constant balance in the relative cost–benefit advantages between social classes as well as from an increasing difference of primary origin effect between social classes in the realization of their educational choice.

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Bovine besnoitiosis is considered an emerging chronic and debilitating disease in Europe. Many infections remain subclinical, and the only sign of disease is the presence of parasitic cysts in the sclera and conjunctiva. Serological tests are useful for detecting asymptomatic cattle/sub-clinical infections for control purposes, as there are no effective drugs or vaccines. For this purpose, diagnostic tools need to be further standardized. Thus, the aim of this study was to compare the serological tests available in Europe in a multi-centred study. A coded panel of 241 well-characterized sera from infected and non-infected bovines was provided by all participants (SALUVET-Madrid, FLI-Wusterhausen, ENV-Toulouse, IPB-Berne). The tests evaluated were as follows: an in-house ELISA, three commercial ELISAs (INGEZIM BES 12.BES.K1 INGENASA, PrioCHECK Besnoitia Ab V2.0, ID Screen Besnoitia indirect IDVET), two IFATs and seven Western blot tests (tachyzoite and bradyzoite extracts under reducing and non-reducing conditions). Two different definitions of a gold standard were used: (i) the result of the majority of tests ('Majority of tests') and (ii) the majority of test results plus pre-test information based on clinical signs ('Majority of tests plus pre-test info'). Relative to the gold standard 'Majority of tests', almost 100% sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) were obtained with SALUVET-Madrid and FLI-Wusterhausen tachyzoite- and bradyzoite-based Western blot tests under non-reducing conditions. On the ELISAs, PrioCHECK Besnoitia Ab V2.0 showed 100% Se and 98.8% Sp, whereas ID Screen Besnoitia indirect IDVET showed 97.2% Se and 100% Sp. The in-house ELISA and INGEZIM BES 12.BES.K1 INGENASA showed 97.3% and 97.2% Se; and 94.6% and 93.0% Sp, respectively. IFAT FLI-Wusterhausen performed better than IFAT SALUVET-Madrid, with 100% Se and 95.4% Sp. Relative to the gold standard 'Majority of test plus pre-test info', Sp significantly decreased; this result was expected because of the existence of seronegative animals with clinical signs. All ELISAs performed very well and could be used in epidemiological studies; however, Western blot tests performed better and could be employed as a posteriori tests for control purposes in the case of uncertain results from valuable samples.

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BACKGROUND 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines on the treatment of cholesterol advised to tailor high-intensity statin after ACS, while previous ATP-III recommended titration of statin to reach low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) targets. We simulated the impact of this change of paradigm on the achievement of recommended targets. METHODS Among a prospective cohort study of consecutive patients hospitalized for ACS from 2009 to 2012 at four Swiss university hospitals, we analyzed 1602 patients who survived one year after recruitment. Targets based on the previous guidelines approach was defined as (1) achievement of LDL-C target < 1.8 mmol/l, (2) reduction of LDL-C ≥ 50% or (3) intensification of statin in patients who did not reach LDL-C targets. Targets based on the 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines approach was defined as the maximization of statin therapy at high-intensity in patients aged ≤75 years and moderate- or high-intensity statin in patients >75 years. RESULTS 1578 (99%) patients were prescribed statin at discharge, with 1120 (70%) at high-intensity. 1507 patients (94%) reported taking statin at one year, with 909 (57%) at high-intensity. Among 482 patients discharged with sub-maximal statin, intensification of statin was only observed in 109 patients (23%). 773 (47%) patients reached the previous LDL-C targets, while 1014 (63%) reached the 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines targetsone year after ACS (p value < 0.001). CONCLUSION The application of the new 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines criteria would substantially increase the proportion of patients achieving recommended lipid targets one year after ACS. Clinical trial number, NCT01075868.

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In this note, we comment on the relevance of elicitability for backtesting risk measure estimates. In particular, we propose the use of Diebold-Mariano tests, and show how they can be implemented for Expected Shortfall (ES), based on the recent result of Fissler and Ziegel (2015) that ES is jointly elicitable with Value at Risk.