26 resultados para Expected Utility Model
em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça
Resumo:
This investigation attempts to answer the question why more and more parents have chosen the Gymnasium for their children's secondary school education in post‐war West Germany. Based on the theory of subjective expected utility, the crucial mechanisms of parental educational decisions have been emphasized. From this perspective it is assumed that increasing educational motivation coupled with changes in the subjective evaluation of the cost–benefit of education were important conditions for an increasing participation in upper secondary schools. These were, however, in turn, the result of educational expansion. The empirical analyses for three time‐periods in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s confirm these assumptions to a large degree. Additionally, empirical evidence was found to suggest that in addition to the intentions of parents and the educational career of their children, structural moments of educational expansion and their own inertia played an important role in the pupils' transition from one educational level to the next. Finally, evidence was found that persistent class‐specific educational inequality stems from a constant balance in the relative cost–benefit advantages between social classes as well as from an increasing difference of primary origin effect between social classes in the realization of their educational choice.
Search for a standard model Higgs boson in the H→ZZ→ℓ(+)ℓ(-)νν decay channel with the ATLAS detector
Resumo:
A search for a heavy standard model Higgs boson decaying via H→ZZ→→ℓ(+)ℓ(-)νν, where ℓ=e, μ, is presented. It is based on proton-proton collision data at √s=7 TeV, collected by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC in the first half of 2011 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.04 fb(-1). The data are compared to the expected standard model backgrounds. The data and the background expectations are found to be in agreement and upper limits are placed on the Higgs boson production cross section over the entire mass window considered; in particular, the production of a standard model Higgs boson is excluded in the region 340
Resumo:
This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.
Resumo:
Die vorliegende Untersuchung ist ein Beitrag, die Frage zu klären, warum in der westdeutschen Nachkriegszeit immer mehr Schulpflichtige nach Abschluss der Grundschule das Gymnasium besuchen. Ausgehend von einem entscheidungstheoretischen Modell der subjektiven Werterwartung werden Mechanismen der elterlichen Bildungsentscheidung aufgezeigt. Dabei wird davon ausgegangen, dass sowohl zunehmende Bildungsmotivationen als auch Veränderungen in der subjektiven Bewertung von Kosten und Nutzen für eine höhere Bildung wichtige Voraussetzungen für die zunehmende Bildungsbeteiligung, aber auch Folgen der Bildungsexpansion waren. Die empirischen Analysen für drei Zeitpunkte in den 60er, 70er und 80er Jahren bestätigen diese Annahmen weitgehend. Ebenso wurde empirisch belegt, welch wichtige Rolle neben den Bildungsintentionen von Eltern und dem vorhergehenden Bildungsverlauf ihrer Kinder auch strukturelle Momente der Bildungsexpansion und ihre Eigendynamik beim tatsächlichen Bildungsübergang spielen. Schließlich gibt es Hinweise dafür, dass die Persistenz klassenspezifischer Bildungsungleichheiten auf einer konstanten Balance von Nutzen und Kosten zwischen den sozialen Klassen basiert.
Resumo:
Combustion-derived and manufactured nanoparticles (NPs) are known to provoke oxidative stress and inflammatory responses in human lung cells; therefore, they play an important role during the development of adverse health effects. As the lungs are composed of more than 40 different cell types, it is of particular interest to perform toxicological studies with co-cultures systems, rather than with monocultures of only one cell type, to gain a better understanding of complex cellular reactions upon exposure to toxic substances. Monocultures of A549 human epithelial lung cells, human monocyte-derived macrophages and monocyte-derived dendritic cells (MDDCs) as well as triple cell co-cultures consisting of all three cell types were exposed to combustion-derived NPs (diesel exhaust particles) and to manufactured NPs (titanium dioxide and single-walled carbon nanotubes). The penetration of particles into cells was analysed by transmission electron microscopy. The amount of intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS), the total antioxidant capacity (TAC) and the production of tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha and interleukin (IL)-8 were quantified. The results of the monocultures were summed with an adjustment for the number of each single cell type in the triple cell co-culture. All three particle types were found in all cell and culture types. The production of ROS was induced by all particle types in all cell cultures except in monocultures of MDDCs. The TAC and the (pro-)inflammatory reactions were not statistically significantly increased by particle exposure in any of the cell cultures. Interestingly, in the triple cell co-cultures, the TAC and IL-8 concentrations were lower and the TNF-alpha concentrations were higher than the expected values calculated from the monocultures. The interplay of different lung cell types seems to substantially modulate the oxidative stress and the inflammatory responses after NP exposure.
Resumo:
Background: A controlled, gradual distraction of the periosteum is expected to result in the formation of new bone. Purpose: This study was designed to estimate the possibility of new bone formation by periosteal distraction in a rat calvarium model. Material and Methods: Sixteen animals were subjected to a 7-day latency period and distraction rate at 0.4 mm/24 hours for 10 days. Two experimental groups with seven rats each were killed at 10 and 20 days of consolidation period and analyzed by means of microcomputed tomography, histologically and histomorphometry. Results: In the central regions underneath the disk device, signs of both bone apposition and bone resorption were observed. Peripheral to the disc, new bone was consistently observed. This new bone was up to two and three times thicker than the original bone after a 10- and 20-day consolidation period, respectively. Signs of ongoing woven bone formation indicated that the stimulus for new bone formation was still present. There were no statistically significant differences regarding bone density, bone volume, and total bone height between the two groups. Conclusion: The periosteal distraction model in the rat calvarium can stimulate the formation of considerable amounts of new bone.
Resumo:
Portal hypertension (PH) is a common complication and a leading cause of death in patients with chronic liver diseases. PH is underlined by structural and functional derangement of liver sinusoid vessels and its fenestrated endothelium. Because in most clinical settings PH is accompanied by parenchymal injury, it has been difficult to determine the precise role of microvascular perturbations in causing PH. Reasoning that Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) is required to maintain functional integrity of the hepatic microcirculation, we developed a transgenic mouse system for a liver-specific-, reversible VEGF inhibition. The system is based on conditional induction and de-induction of a VEGF decoy receptor that sequesters VEGF and preclude signaling. VEGF blockade results in sinusoidal endothelial cells (SECs) fenestrations closure and in accumulation and transformation of the normally quiescent hepatic stellate cells, i.e. provoking the two processes underlying sinusoidal capillarization. Importantly, sinusoidal capillarization was sufficient to cause PH and its typical sequela, ascites, splenomegaly and venous collateralization without inflicting parenchymal damage or fibrosis. Remarkably, these dramatic phenotypes were fully reversed within few days from lifting-off VEGF blockade and resultant re-opening of SECs' fenestrations. This study not only uncovered an indispensible role for VEGF in maintaining structure and function of mature SECs, but also highlights the vasculo-centric nature of PH pathogenesis. Unprecedented ability to rescue PH and its secondary manifestations via manipulating a single vascular factor may also be harnessed for examining the potential utility of de-capillarization treatment modalities.
Resumo:
Diagnosis of intestinal ischemia remains a clinical challenge. The aim of the present study was to use a metabolomic protocol to identify upregulated and downregulated small molecules (M(r) < 500) in the serum of mice with intestinal ischemia. Such molecules could have clinical utility when evaluated as biomarkers in human studies.
Resumo:
A simulation model adopting a health system perspective showed population-based screening with DXA, followed by alendronate treatment of persons with osteoporosis, or with anamnestic fracture and osteopenia, to be cost-effective in Swiss postmenopausal women from age 70, but not in men. INTRODUCTION: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a population-based screen-and-treat strategy for osteoporosis (DXA followed by alendronate treatment if osteoporotic, or osteopenic in the presence of fracture), compared to no intervention, from the perspective of the Swiss health care system. METHODS: A published Markov model assessed by first-order Monte Carlo simulation was refined to reflect the diagnostic process and treatment effects. Women and men entered the model at age 50. Main screening ages were 65, 75, and 85 years. Age at bone densitometry was flexible for persons fracturing before the main screening age. Realistic assumptions were made with respect to persistence with intended 5 years of alendronate treatment. The main outcome was cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: In women, costs per QALY were Swiss francs (CHF) 71,000, CHF 35,000, and CHF 28,000 for the main screening ages of 65, 75, and 85 years. The threshold of CHF 50,000 per QALY was reached between main screening ages 65 and 75 years. Population-based screening was not cost-effective in men. CONCLUSION: Population-based DXA screening, followed by alendronate treatment in the presence of osteoporosis, or of fracture and osteopenia, is a cost-effective option in Swiss postmenopausal women after age 70.
Resumo:
Several studies have shown that HER-2/neu (erbB-2) blocking therapy strategies can cause tumor remission. However, the responsible molecular mechanisms are not yet known. Both ERK1/2 and Akt/PKB are critical for HER-2-mediated signal transduction. Therefore, we used a mouse tumor model that allows downregulation of HER-2 in tumor tissue by administration of anhydrotetracycline (ATc). Switching-off HER-2 caused a rapid tumor remission by more than 95% within 7 d of ATc administration compared to the volume before switching-off HER-2. Interestingly, HER-2 downregulation caused a dephosphorylation of p-ERK1/2 by more than 80% already before tumor remission occurred. Levels of total ERK protein were not influenced. In contrast, dephosphorylation of p-Akt occurred later, when the tumor was already in remission. These data suggest that in our HER-2 tumor model dephosphorylation of p-ERK1/2 may be more critical for tumor remission than dephosphorylation of p-Akt. To test this hypothesis we used a second mouse tumor model that allows ATc controlled expression of BXB-Raf1 because the latter constitutively signals to ERK1/2, but cannot activate Akt/PKB. As expected, downregulation of BXB-Raf1 in tumor tissue caused a strong dephosphorylation of p-ERK1/2, but did not decrease levels of p-Akt. Interestingly, tumor remission after switching-off BXB-Raf1 was similarly efficient as the effect of HER-2 downregulation, despite the lack of p-Akt dephosphorylation. In conclusion, two lines of evidence strongly suggest that dephosphorylation of p-ERK1/2 and not that of p-Akt is critical for the rapid tumor remission after downregulation of HER-2 or BXB-Raf1 in our tumor model: (i) dephosphorylation of p-ERK1/2 but not that of p-Akt precedes tumor remission after switching-off HER-2 and (ii) downregulation of BXB-Raf1 leads to a similarly efficient tumor remission as downregulation of HER-2, although no p-Akt dephosphorylation was observed after switching-off BXB-Raf1.
Evolutionary demography of long-lived monocarpic perennials: a time-lagged integral projection model
Resumo:
1. The evolution of flowering strategies (when and at what size to flower) in monocarpic perennials is determined by balancing current reproduction with expected future reproduction, and these are largely determined by size-specific patterns of growth and survival. However, because of the difficulty in following long-lived individuals throughout their lives, this theory has largely been tested using short-lived species (< 5 years). 2. Here, we tested this theory using the long-lived monocarpic perennial Campanula thyrsoides which can live up to 16 years. We used a novel approach that combined permanent plot and herb chronology data from a 3-year field study to parameterize and validate integral projection models (IPMs). 3. Similar to other monocarpic species, the rosette leaves of C. thyrsoides wither over winter and so size cannot be measured in the year of flowering. We therefore extended the existing IPM framework to incorporate an additional time delay that arises because flowering demography must be predicted from rosette size in the year before flowering. 4. We found that all main demographic functions (growth, survival probability, flowering probability and fecundity) were strongly size-dependent and there was a pronounced threshold size of flowering. There was good agreement between the predicted distribution of flowering ages obtained from the IPMs and that estimated in the field. Mostly, there was good agreement between the IPM predictions and the direct quantitative field measurements regarding the demographic parameters lambda, R-0 and T. We therefore conclude that the model captures the main demographic features of the field populations. 5. Elasticity analysis indicated that changes in the survival and growth function had the largest effect (c. 80%) on lambda and this was considerably larger than in short-lived monocarps. We found only weak selection pressure operating on the observed flowering strategy which was close to the predicted evolutionary stable strategy. 6. Synthesis. The extended IPM accurately described the demography of a long-lived monocarpic perennial using data collected over a relatively short period. We could show that the evolution of flowering strategies in short- and long-lived monocarps seem to follow the same general rules but with a longevity-related emphasis on survival over fecundity.
Resumo:
A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN.
Resumo:
Despite promising cost saving potential, many offshore software projects fail to realize the expected benefits. A frequent source of failure lies in the insufficient transfer of knowledge during the transition phase. Former literature has reported cases where some domains of knowledge were successfully transferred to vendor personnel whereas others were not. There is further evidence that the actual knowledge transfer processes often vary from case to case. This raises the question whether there is a systematic relationship between the chosen knowledge transfer process and know-ledge transfer success. This paper introduces a dynamic perspective that distinguishes different types of knowledge transfer processes explaining under which circumstances which type is deemed most appropriate to successfully transfer knowledge. Our paper draws on knowledge transfer literature, the Model of Work-Based Learning and theories from cognitive psychology to show how characteristics of know-ledge and the absorptive capacity of knowledge recipients fit particular knowledge transfer processes. The knowledge transfer processes are conceptualized as combinations of generic knowledge transfer activities. This results in six gestalts of know-ledge transfer processes, each representing a fit between the characteristics of the knowledge process and the characteristics of the knowledge to be transferred and the absorptive capacity of the knowledge recipient.
Resumo:
We consider the 2d XY Model with topological lattice actions, which are invariant against small deformations of the field configuration. These actions constrain the angle between neighbouring spins by an upper bound, or they explicitly suppress vortices (and anti-vortices). Although topological actions do not have a classical limit, they still lead to the universal behaviour of the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) phase transition — at least up to moderate vortex suppression. In the massive phase, the analytically known Step Scaling Function (SSF) is reproduced in numerical simulations. However, deviations from the expected universal behaviour of the lattice artifacts are observed. In the massless phase, the BKT value of the critical exponent ηc is confirmed. Hence, even though for some topological actions vortices cost zero energy, they still drive the standard BKT transition. In addition we identify a vortex-free transition point, which deviates from the BKT behaviour.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Contact force (CF) is an important determinant of lesion formation for atrial endocardial radiofrequency ablation. There are minimal published data on CF and ventricular lesion formation. We studied the impact of CF on lesion formation using an ovine model both endocardially and epicardially. METHODS AND RESULTS Twenty sheep received 160 epicardial and 160 endocardial ventricular radiofrequency applications using either a 3.5-mm irrigated-tip catheter (Thermocool, Biosense-Webster, n=160) or a 3.5 irrigated-tip catheter with CF assessment (Tacticath, Endosense, n=160), via percutaneous access. Power was delivered at 30 watts for 60 seconds, when either catheter/tissue contact was felt to be good or when CF>10 g with Tacticath. After completion of all lesions, acute dimensions were taken at pathology. Identifiable lesion formation from radiofrequency application was improved with the aid of CF information, from 78% to 98% on the endocardium (P<0.001) and from 90% to 100% on the epicardium (P=0.02). The mean total force was greater on the endocardium (39±18 g versus 21±14 g for the epicardium; P<0.001) mainly because of axial force. Despite the force-time integral being greater endocardially, epicardial lesions were larger (231±182 mm(3) versus 209±131 mm(3); P=0.02) probably because of the absence of the heat sink effect of the circulating blood and covered a greater area (41±27 mm(2) versus 29±17 mm(2); P=0.03) because of catheter orientation. CONCLUSIONS In the absence of CF feedback, 22% of endocardial radiofrequency applications that are thought to have good contact did not result in lesion formation. Epicardial ablation is associated with larger lesions.