A test of the Bolton-Scheinkman-Xiong hypothesis of how speculation affects the vesting time of options granted to directors

This paper investigates empirically the Bolton, Scheinkman, and Xiong (2006) hypothesis, according to which initial shareholders may provide incentives to managers to take actions that stimulate speculative bubbles. We test this hypothesis with data on up to 8,544 directors and up to 1,677 companies between 2004-2008. Using vesting time as a measure of the short-term performance weighting in CEO compensation and various alternative measures of the extent of speculation, the findings support the hypothesis: vesting time decreases with more intensive speculation. The results prove robust in various empirical model specifications.

An EEG approach to the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of schizophrenia studying schizophrenics, normal controls and adolescents

Based on an integrative brain model which focuses on memory-driven and EEG state-dependent information processing for the organisation of behaviour, we used the developmental changes of the awake EEG to further investigate the hypothesis that neurodevelopmental abnormalities (deviations in organisation and reorganisation of cortico-cortical connectivity during development) are involved in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia. First-episode, neuroleptic-naive schizophrenics and their matched controls and three age groups of normal adolescents were studied (total: 70 subjects). 19-channel EEG delta-theta, alpha and beta spectral band centroid frequencies during resting (baseline) and after verbal stimuli were used as measure of the level of attained complexity and momentary excitability of the neuronal network (working memory). Schizophrenics compared with all control groups showed lower delta-theta activity centroids and higher alpha and beta activity centroids. Reactivity centroids (centroid after stimulus minus centroid during resting) were used as measure of update of working memory. Schizophrenics showed partial similarities in delta-theta and beta reactivity centroids with the 11-year olds and in alpha reactivity centroids with the 13-year olds. Within the framework of our model, the results suggest multifactorially elicited imbalances in the level of excitability of neuronal networks in schizophrenia, resulting in network activation at dissociated complexity levels, partially regressed and partially prematurely developed. It is hypothesised that activation of age- and/or state-inadequate representations for coping with realities becomes manifest as productive schizophrenic symptoms. Thus, the results support some aspects of the neurodevelopmental hypothesis.

Multi-locus microsatellite analysis supports the hypothesis of an autochthonous focus of Echinococcus multilocularis in northern Italy

Echinococcus multilocularis is characterised by a wide geographical distribution, encompassing three continents (North America, Asia and Europe) yet very low genetic variability is documented. Recently, this parasite has been detected in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) circulating in an Alpine region of Italy, close to Austria. This finding raised the question as to whether an autochthonous cycle exists in Italy or whether the infected foxes originated from the neighbouring regions of Austria. Studies have shown that multi-locus microsatellite analysis can identify genomic regions carrying mutations that result in a local adaptation. We used a tandem repeated multi-locus microsatellite (EmsB) to evaluate the genetic differences amongst adult worms of E. multilocularis collected in Italy, worms from neighbouring Austria and from other European and extra-European countries. Fluorescent PCR was performed on a panel of E. multilocularis samples to assess intra-specific polymorphism. The analysis revealed four closed genotypes for Italian samples of E. multilocularis which were unique compared with the other 25 genotypes from Europe and the five genotypes from Alaska. An analysis in the Alpine watershed, comparing Italian adult worms with those from neighbouring areas in Austria, showed a unique cluster for Italian samples. This result supports the hypothesis of the presence of an autochthonous cycle of E. multilocularis in Italy. EmsB can be useful for 'tracking' the source of infection of this zoonotic parasite and developing appropriate measures for preventing or reducing the risk of human alveolar echinococcosis.

Third party assessments in trust problems with conflict of interest: An experiment on the effects of promisesm

Is it possible to elicit reliable assessment from an assessor having a conflict of interest (e.g. a professor that writes a recommendation letter for a formal PhD student)? We propose an experimental test and show that compared to a not-incentivized assessment, a promise to give a truthful assessment reduces misreporting to the same extent as an incentivized assessment (i.e. when the assessor gains higher payoff if the assessment is correct).

Lake sediments as archives of recurrence rates and intensities of past flood events

Palaeoflood hydrology is an expanding field as the damage potential of flood and flood-related processes are increasing with the population density and the value of the infrastructure. Assessing the risk of these hazards in mountainous terrain requires knowledge about the frequency and severness of such events in the past. A wide range of methods is employed using diverse biologic, geomorphic or geologic evidences to track past flood events. Impact of floods are studied and dated on alluvial fans and cones using for example the growth disturbance of trees (Stoffel and Bollschweiler 2008; Schneuwly-Bollschweiler and Stoffel 2012: this volume) or stratigraphic layers deposited by debris flows, allowing to reconstruct past flood frequencies (Bardou et~al. 2003). Further downstream, the classical approach of palaeoflood hydrology (Kochel and Baker 1982) utilizes geomorphic indicators such as overbank sediments, silt lines and erosion features of floods along a river (e.g. Benito and Thorndycraft 2005). Fine-grained sediment settles out of the river suspension in eddies or backwater areas, where the flow velocity of the river is reduced. Records of these deposits at different elevations across a river’s profile can be used to assess the discharge of the past floods. This approach of palaeoflood hydrology studies was successfully applied in several river catchments (e.g. Ely et al. 1993; Macklin and Lewin 2003; O’Connor et al. 1994; Sheffer et al. 2003; Thorndycraft et al. 2005; Thorndycraft and Benito 2006). All these different reconstruction methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, but often these studies have a limited time coverage and the records are potentially incomplete due to lateral limits of depositional areas and due to the erosional power of fluvial processes that remove previously deposited flood witnesses. Here, we present a method that follows the sediment particle transported by a flood event to its final sink: the lacustrine basin.

Deciphering the driving forces of erosion rates on millennial to million-year timescales in glacially impacted landscapes: An example from the Western Alps

In many regions, tectonic uplift is the main driver of erosion over million-year (Myr) timescales, but climate changes can markedly affect the link between tectonics and erosion, causing transient variations in erosion rates. Here we study the driving forces of millennial to Myr-scale erosion rates in the French Western Alps, as estimated from in situ produced cosmogenic 10Be and a newly developed approach integrating detrital and bedrock apatite fission-track thermochronology. Millennial erosion rates from 10Be analyses vary between ~0.27 and ~1.33 m/kyr, similar to rates measured in adjacent areas of the Alps. Significant positive correlations of millennial erosion rates with geomorphic measures, in particular with the LGM ice thickness, reveal a strong transient morphological and erosional perturbation caused by repeated Quaternary glaciations. The perturbation appears independent of Myr-scale uplift and erosion gradients, with the effect that millennial erosion rates exceed Myr-scale erosion rates only in the internal Alps where the latter are low (<0.4 km/Myr). These areas, moreover, exhibit channels that clearly plot above a general linear positive relation between Myr-scale erosion rates and normalized steepness index. Glacial erosion acts irrespective of rock uplift and thus not only leads to an overall increase in erosion rates but also regulates landscape morphology and erosion rates in regions with considerable spatial gradients in Myr-scale tectonic uplift. Our study demonstrates that climate change, e.g., through occurrence of major glaciations, can markedly perturb landscape morphology and related millennial erosion rate patterns, even in regions where Myr-scale erosion rates are dominantly controlled by tectonics.