Is hatchery stocking a help or harm? Evidence, limitations and future directions in ecological and genetic surveys

Hatchery fish stocking for stock enhancement has been operated at a massive and global scale. However, the use of hatchery fish as a means of stock enhancement is highly controversial, and little is known about its effects on wild stock and consequences for stock enhancement. Here we review the scientific literature on this subject in order to address a fundamental - question is hatchery stocking a help or harm for wild stock and stock enhancement? We summarized 266 peer-reviewed papers that were published in the last 50 years, which describe empirical case studies on ecology and genetics of hatchery stocks and their effects on stock enhancement. Specifically, we asked whether hatchery stock and wild stock differed in fitness and the level of genetic variation, and whether stocking affected population abundance. Seventy studies contained comparisons between hatchery and wild stocks, out of which 23 studies showed significantly negative effects of hatchery rearing on the fitness of stocked fish, and 28 studies showed reduced genetic variation in hatchery populations. None of these studies suggested a positive genetic effect on the fitness of hatchery-reared individuals after release. These results suggest that negative effects of hatchery rearing are not just a concern but undeniably present in many aquaculture species. In a few cases, however, no obvious effect of hatchery rearing was observed, and a positive contribution of hatchery stock to the abundance of fish populations was indicated. These examples suggest that there is a chance to improve hatchery practices and mitigate the negative effects on wild stocks, although scientific data supporting the positive effect on stock enhancement are largely missing at this moment. Technically, microsatellite-based parentage assignments have been proven as a useful tool for the evaluation of reproductive fitness in natural settings, which is a key for stock enhancement by hatchery-based stocking. We discuss implications of these results, as well as their limitations and future directions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The pulmonary artery catheter: the tool versus treatments based on the tool

The pulmonary artery catheter (PAC) is a powerful tool that has been used extensively in the assessment and monitoring of cardiovascular physiology. Gross misinterpretation of data gathered by the PAC is common, and its routine use without any specific interventions has not been shown to influence outcome. However, there currently is no evidence from randomized, controlled trials that any diagnostic or monitoring tool used in intensive care patients improves outcome. Studies evaluating the use of the PAC have included numerous potential confounding factors, and should be interpreted with caution. The information obtained with the PAC should be used to find better treatment strategies, and these strategies, instead of the tool itself, should be tested in clinical trials.

Evidence-based diagnosis

Making an accurate diagnosis is essential to ensure that a patient receives appropriate treatment and correct information regarding their prognosis. Characteristics of diagnostic tests are quantified in test accuracy studies, but many such studies have methodological flaws. The HSRC evidence-based diagnosis programme has focused on methods for systematic reviews of test accuracy studies, and the wider context in which tests are ordered and interpreted. We carried out a range of projects relating to literature searching, quality assessment, meta-analysis, presentation of results, and interactions between doctors and patients during the diagnostic process. We have shown that systematic reviews of test accuracy studies should search a range of databases and that current diagnostic filters do not have sufficient accuracy to be used in test accuracy reviews. Summary quality scores should not be used in test accuracy reviews; the Quality Assessment of Studies of Diagnostic Accuracy included in Systematic Reviews (QUADAS) tool for assessing test accuracy studies is acceptable for quality assessment. We have shown that the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) and bivariate models for meta-analysis of test accuracy are statistically equivalent in many circumstances, and have developed an add-on module for the statistical software package Stata that enables these statistically rigorous models to be fitted by those without expert statistical knowledge. Three areas that would benefit from further research are literature searching, synthesis of results from individual patient data and presentation of results.

The additional facet of immunoscore: immunoprofiling as a possible predictive tool for cancer treatment

Recent investigations of the tumor microenvironment have shown that many tumors are infiltrated by inflammatory and lymphocytic cells. Increasing evidence suggests that the number, type and location of these tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in primary tumors has prognostic value, and this has led to the development of an 'immunoscore. As well as providing useful prognostic information, the immunoscore concept also has the potential to help predict response to treatment, thereby improving decision- making with regard to choice of therapy. This predictive aspect of the tumor microenvironment forms the basis for the concept of immunoprofiling, which can be described as 'using an individual's immune system signature (or profile) to predict that patient's response to therapy' The immunoprofile of an individual can be genetically determined or tumor-induced (and therefore dynamic). Ipilimumab is the first in a series of immunomodulating antibodies and has been shown to be associated with improved overall survival in patients with advanced melanoma. Other immunotherapies in development include anti-programmed death 1 protein (nivolumab), anti-PD-ligand 1, anti-CD137 (urelumab), and anti-OX40. Biomarkers that can be used as predictive factors for these treatments have not yet been clinically validated. However, there is already evidence that the tumor microenvironment can have a predictive role, with clinical activity of ipilimumab related to high baseline expression of the immune-related genes FoxP3 and indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase and an increase in tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes. These biomarkers could represent the first potential proposal for an immunoprofiling panel in patients for whom anti-CTLA-4 therapy is being considered, although prospective data are required. In conclusion, the evaluation of systemic and local immunological biomarkers could offer useful prognostic information and facilitate clinical decision making. The challenge will be to identify the individual immunoprofile of each patient and the consequent choice of optimal therapy or combination of therapies to be used.

More Money, Fewer Problems? Cross-Level Effects of Economic Deprivation on Political Representation

While equal political representation of all citizens is a fundamental democratic goal, it is hampered empirically in a multitude of ways. This study examines how the societal level of economic inequality affects the representation of relatively poor citizens by parties and governments. Using CSES survey data for citizens’ policy preferences and expert placements of political parties, empirical evidence is found that in economically more unequal societies, the party system represents the preferences of relatively poor citizens worse than in more equal societies. This moderating effect of economic equality is also found for policy congruence between citizens and governments, albeit slightly less clear-cut.

The Forensic Reference Phantom-a new tool for quality assurance of attenuation measurements in forensic radiology

Introduction The purpose of this paper is to present the technical specifications of the Forensic Reference Phantom (FRP), to test its behavior relative to organic test materials, and discuss potential applications of the phantom in forensic radiology. Materials and method The FRP prototype is made of synthetic materials designed to simulate the computed tomography (CT) attenuation of water. It has six bore holes that accommodate multiuse containers. These containers were filled with test materials and scanned at 80 kVp, 120 kVp, and 140 kVp. X-ray attenuation was measured by two readers. Intra- and inter-reader reliability was assessed using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). Significance levels between mean CT numbers at 80 kVp, 120 kVp, and 140 kVp were assessed with the Friedman-test. The T-test was used to assess significance levels between the FRP and water. Results Overall mean CT numbers ranged from −3.0–3.7HU for the FRP; −1000.3–−993.5HU for air; −157.7– −108.1HU for oil; 35.5–42.0HU for musle tissue; and 1301.5–2354.8HU for cortical bone. Inter-reader and intra-reader reliability were excellent (ICC>0.994; and ICC=0.999 respectively). CT numbers were significantly different at different energy levels. There was no significant difference between the attenuation of the FRP and water. Conclusions The FRP is a new tool for quality assurance and research in forensic radiology. The mean CT attenuation of the FRP is equivalent to water. The phantom can be scanned during routine post-mortem CT to assess the composition of unidentified objects. In addition, the FRP may be used to investigate new imaging algorithms and scan protocols in forensic radiology.

Poor Reliability between Cochrane Reviewers and Blinded External Reviewers When Applying the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool in Physical Therapy Trials

OBJECTIVES To test the inter-rater reliability of the RoB tool applied to Physical Therapy (PT) trials by comparing ratings from Cochrane review authors with those of blinded external reviewers. METHODS Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in PT were identified by searching the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for meta-analysis of PT interventions. RoB assessments were conducted independently by 2 reviewers blinded to the RoB ratings reported in the Cochrane reviews. Data on RoB assessments from Cochrane reviews and other characteristics of reviews and trials were extracted. Consensus assessments between the two reviewers were then compared with the RoB ratings from the Cochrane reviews. Agreement between Cochrane and blinded external reviewers was assessed using weighted kappa (κ). RESULTS In total, 109 trials included in 17 Cochrane reviews were assessed. Inter-rater reliability on the overall RoB assessment between Cochrane review authors and blinded external reviewers was poor (κ  =  0.02, 95%CI: -0.06, 0.06]). Inter-rater reliability on individual domains of the RoB tool was poor (median κ  = 0.19), ranging from κ  =  -0.04 ("Other bias") to κ  =  0.62 ("Sequence generation"). There was also no agreement (κ  =  -0.29, 95%CI: -0.81, 0.35]) in the overall RoB assessment at the meta-analysis level. CONCLUSIONS Risk of bias assessments of RCTs using the RoB tool are not consistent across different research groups. Poor agreement was not only demonstrated at the trial level but also at the meta-analysis level. Results have implications for decision making since different recommendations can be reached depending on the group analyzing the evidence. Improved guidelines to consistently apply the RoB tool and revisions to the tool for different health areas are needed.

State of the art of integrated therapy approaches in the treatment of schizophrenia: empirical evidence and clinical relevance

Objective: Integrated behavior therapy approaches are defined by the combination of behavioral and or cognitive interventions targeting neurocognition combined with other goal-oriented treatment targets such as social cognition, social skills, or educational issues. The Integrated Psychological Therapy Program (IPT) represents one of the very first behavior therapy approaches combining interventions of neurocognition, social cognition, and social competence. This comprehensive group-based bottom-up and top-down approach consists of five subprograms, each with incremental steps. IPT has been successfully implemented in several countries in Europe, America, Australia and in Asia. IPT worked as a model for some other approaches designed in the USA. IPT was undergone two further developments: based on the social competence part of IPT, the three specific therapy programs focusing residential, occupational or recreational topics were developed. Recently, the cognitive part of INT was rigorously expanded into the Integrated Neurocognitive Therapy (INT) designed exclusively for outpatient treatment: INT includes interventions targeting all neurocognitive and social cognitive domains defined by the NIMH-MATRICS initiative. These group and partially PC-based exercises are structured into four therapy modules, each starting with exercises on neurocognitive domains followed by social cognitive targets. Efficacy: The evidence of integrated therapy approaches and its advantage compared to of one-track interventions was becoming a discussion tool in therapy research as well as in mental health systems. Results of meta-analyses support superiority of integrated approaches compared to one-track interventions in more distal outcome areas such as social functioning. These results are in line with the large body of 37 independent IPT studies in 12 countries. Moreover, IPT research indicates the maintenance of therapy effects after the end of therapy and some evidence generalization effects. Additionally, the international randomized multi-center study on INT with 169 outpatients strongly supports the successful therapy of integrated therapy in proximal and distal outcome such as significant effects in cognition, functioning and negative symptoms. Clinical implication: therapy research as well as expert’s clinical experience recommends integrated therapy approaches such as IPT to be successful agents within multimodal psychiatric treatment concepts. Finally, integrated group therapy based on cognitive remediation seems to motivate and stimulate schizophrenia inpatients and outpatients to more successful and independent life also demanded by the recovery movement.

Effect of standardized training on the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool: a study protocol

BACKGROUND The Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tool has been widely embraced by the systematic review community, but several studies have reported that its reliability is low. We aim to investigate whether training of raters, including objective and standardized instructions on how to assess risk of bias, can improve the reliability of this tool. We describe the methods that will be used in this investigation and present an intensive standardized training package for risk of bias assessment that could be used by contributors to the Cochrane Collaboration and other reviewers. METHODS/DESIGN This is a pilot study. We will first perform a systematic literature review to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that will be used for risk of bias assessment. Using the identified RCTs, we will then do a randomized experiment, where raters will be allocated to two different training schemes: minimal training and intensive standardized training. We will calculate the chance-corrected weighted Kappa with 95% confidence intervals to quantify within- and between-group Kappa agreement for each of the domains of the risk of bias tool. To calculate between-group Kappa agreement, we will use risk of bias assessments from pairs of raters after resolution of disagreements. Between-group Kappa agreement will quantify the agreement between the risk of bias assessment of raters in the training groups and the risk of bias assessment of experienced raters. To compare agreement of raters under different training conditions, we will calculate differences between Kappa values with 95% confidence intervals. DISCUSSION This study will investigate whether the reliability of the risk of bias tool can be improved by training raters using standardized instructions for risk of bias assessment. One group of inexperienced raters will receive intensive training on risk of bias assessment and the other will receive minimal training. By including a control group with minimal training, we will attempt to mimic what many review authors commonly have to do, that is-conduct risk of bias assessment in RCTs without much formal training or standardized instructions. If our results indicate that an intense standardized training does improve the reliability of the RoB tool, our study is likely to help improve the quality of risk of bias assessments, which is a central component of evidence synthesis.

Loyal to the Game? Strategic Policy Representation in Mixed Electoral Systems

In Germany's compensatory mixed electoral system, alternative electoral routes lead into parliament. We study the relationship between candidates' electoral situations across both tiers and policy representation, fully accounting for candidate, party and district preferences in a multi-actor constellation and the exact electoral incentives for candidates to represent either the party or the district. The results (2009 Bundestag election data) yield evidence of an interactive effect of closeness of the district race and list safety on candidates' positioning between their party and constituency.

Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

Provenance analysis using Raman spectroscopy of carbonaceous material: A case study in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

Detrital provenance analyses in orogenic settings, in which sediments are collected at the outlet of a catchment, have become an important tool to estimate how erosion varies in space and time. Here we present how Raman Spectroscopy on Carbonaceous Material (RSCM) can be used for provenance analysis. RSCM provides an estimate of the peak temperature (RSCM-T) experienced during metamorphism. We show that we can infer modern erosion patterns in a catchment by combining new measurements on detrital sands with previously acquired bedrock data. We focus on the Whataroa catchment in the Southern Alps of New Zealand and exploit the metamorphic gradient that runs parallel to the main drainage direction. To account for potential sampling biases, we also quantify abrasion properties using flume experiments and measure the total organic carbon content in the bedrock that produced the collected sands. Finally, we integrate these parameters into a mass-conservative model. Our results first demonstrate that RSCM-T can be used for detrital studies. Second, we find that spatial variations in tracer concentration and erosion have a first-order control on the RSCM-T distributions, even though our flume experiments reveal that weak lithologies produce substantially more fine particles than do more durable lithologies. This result implies that sand specimens are good proxies for mapping spatial variations in erosion when the bedrock concentration of the target mineral is quantified. The modeling suggests that highest present-day erosion rates (in Whataroa catchment) are not situated at the range front but around 10 km into the mountain belt.

The evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses published in orthodontic literature. Where do we stand?

AIM To analyse meta-analyses included in systematic reviews (SRs) published in leading orthodontic journals and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) focusing on orthodontic literature and to assess the quality of the existing evidence. MATERIALS AND METHODS Electronic searching was undertaken to identify SRs published in five major orthodontic journals and the CDSR between January 2000 and June 2014. Quality assessment of the overall body of evidence from meta-analyses was conducted using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation working group (GRADE) tool. RESULTS One hundred and fifty-seven SRs were identified; meta-analysis was present in 43 of these (27.4 per cent). The highest proportion of SRs that included a meta-analysis was found in Orthodontics and Craniofacial Research (6/13; 46.1 per cent), followed by the CDSR (12/33; 36.4 per cent) and the American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopaedics (15/44; 34.1 per cent). Class II treatment was the most commonly addressed topic within SRs in orthodontics (n = 18/157; 11.5 per cent). The number of trials combined to produce a summary estimate was small for most meta-analyses with a median of 4 (range: 2-52). Only 21 per cent (n = 9) of included meta-analyses were considered to have a high/moderate quality of evidence according to GRADE, while the majority were of low or very low quality (n = 34; 79.0 per cent). CONCLUSIONS Overall, approximately one quarter of orthodontic SRs included quantitative synthesis, with a median of four trials per meta-analysis. The overall quality of evidence from the selected orthodontic SRs was predominantly low to very low indicating the relative lack of high quality of evidence from SRs to inform clinical practice guidelines.

Deep water provenance and dynamics of the (de)glacial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Reconstructing past modes of ocean circulation is an essential task in paleoclimatology and paleoceanography. To this end, we combine two sedimentary proxies, Nd isotopes (εNd) and the 231Pa/230Th ratio, both of which are not directly involved in the global carbon cycle, but allow the reconstruction of water mass provenance and provide information about the past strength of overturning circulation, respectively. In this study, combined 231Pa/230Th and εNd down-core profiles from six Atlantic Ocean sediment cores are presented. The data set is complemented by the two available combined data sets from the literature. From this we derive a comprehensive picture of spatial and temporal patterns and the dynamic changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation over the past ∼25 ka. Our results provide evidence for a consistent pattern of glacial/stadial advances of Southern Sourced Water along with a northward circulation mode for all cores in the deeper (>3000 m) Atlantic. Results from shallower core sites support an active overturning cell of shoaled Northern Sourced Water during the LGM and the subsequent deglaciation. Furthermore, we report evidence for a short-lived period of intensified AMOC in the early Holocene.