Prospective, multicenter validation of prediction scores for major bleeding in elderly patients with venous thromboembolism

The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE.

Dosimetric impact of geometric errors due to respiratory motion prediction on dynamic multileaf collimator-based four-dimensional radiation delivery

The synchronization of dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) response with respiratory motion is critical to ensure the accuracy of DMLC-based four dimensional (4D) radiation delivery. In practice, however, a finite time delay (response time) between the acquisition of tumor position and multileaf collimator response necessitates predictive models of respiratory tumor motion to synchronize radiation delivery. Predicting a complex process such as respiratory motion introduces geometric errors, which have been reported in several publications. However, the dosimetric effect of such errors on 4D radiation delivery has not yet been investigated. Thus, our aim in this work was to quantify the dosimetric effects of geometric error due to prediction under several different conditions. Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for a lung patient were generated for anterior-posterior/posterior-anterior (AP/PA) beam arrangements at 6 and 18 MV energies to provide planned dose distributions. Respiratory motion data was obtained from 60 diaphragm-motion fluoroscopy recordings from five patients. A linear adaptive filter was employed to predict the tumor position. The geometric error of prediction was defined as the absolute difference between predicted and actual positions at each diaphragm position. Distributions of geometric error of prediction were obtained for all of the respiratory motion data. Planned dose distributions were then convolved with distributions for the geometric error of prediction to obtain convolved dose distributions. The dosimetric effect of such geometric errors was determined as a function of several variables: response time (0-0.6 s), beam energy (6/18 MV), treatment delivery (3D/4D), treatment type (conformal/IMRT), beam direction (AP/PA), and breathing training type (free breathing/audio instruction/visual feedback). Dose difference and distance-to-agreement analysis was employed to quantify results. Based on our data, the dosimetric impact of prediction (a) increased with response time, (b) was larger for 3D radiation therapy as compared with 4D radiation therapy, (c) was relatively insensitive to change in beam energy and beam direction, (d) was greater for IMRT distributions as compared with conformal distributions, (e) was smaller than the dosimetric impact of latency, and (f) was greatest for respiration motion with audio instructions, followed by visual feedback and free breathing. Geometric errors of prediction that occur during 4D radiation delivery introduce dosimetric errors that are dependent on several factors, such as response time, treatment-delivery type, and beam energy. Even for relatively small response times of 0.6 s into the future, dosimetric errors due to prediction could approach delivery errors when respiratory motion is not accounted for at all. To reduce the dosimetric impact, better predictive models and/or shorter response times are required.

Enantioselective capillary electrophoresis for the assessment of CYP3A4-mediated ketamine demethylation and inhibition in vitro

Enantioselective CE with sulfated cyclodextrins as chiral selectors was used to determine the CYP3A4-catalyzed N-demethylation kinetics of ketamine to norketamine and its inhibition in the presence of ketoconazole in vitro. Ketamine, a chiral phencyclidine derivative, was incubated with recombinant human CYP3A4 from a baculovirus expression system as racemic mixture and as single enantiomer. Alkaline liquid/liquid extracts of the samples were analyzed with a pH 2.5 buffer comprising 50 mM Tris and phosphoric acid together with either multiple isomer sulfated β-cyclodextrin (10 mg/mL) or highly sulfated γ-cyclodextrin (2%, w/v). Data obtained in the absence of ketoconazole revealed that the N-demethylation occurred stereoselectively with Michaelis-Menten (incubation of racemic ketamine) and Hill (separate incubation of single enantiomers) kinetics. Data generated in the presence of ketoconazole as the inhibitor could best be fitted to a one-site competitive model and inhibition constants were calculated using the equation of Cheng and Prusoff. No stereoselective difference was observed, but inhibition constants for the incubation of racemic ketamine were found to be larger compared with those obtained with the incubation of single ketamine enantiomers.

Quantitative high-resolution warm season rainfall recorded in varved sediments of Lake Oeschinen, northern Swiss Alps: calibration and validation AD 1901–2008

High-resolution, well-calibrated records of lake sediments are critically important for quantitative climate reconstructions, but they remain a methodological and analytical challenge. While several comprehensive paleotemperature reconstructions have been developed across Europe, only a few quantitative high-resolution studies exist for precipitation. Here we present a calibration and verification study of lithoclastic sediment proxies from proglacial Lake Oeschinen (46°30′N, 7°44′E, 1,580 m a.s.l., north–west Swiss Alps) that are sensitive to rainfall for the period AD 1901–2008. We collected two sediment cores, one in 2007 and another in 2011. The sediments are characterized by two facies: (A) mm-laminated clastic varves and (B) turbidites. The annual character of the laminae couplets was confirmed by radiometric dating (210Pb, 137Cs) and independent flood-layer chronomarkers. Individual varves consist of a dark sand-size spring-summer layer enriched in siliciclastic minerals and a lighter clay-size calcite-rich winter layer. Three subtypes of varves are distinguished: Type I with a 1–1.5 mm fining upward sequence; Type II with a distinct fine-sand base up to 3 mm thick; and Type III containing multiple internal microlaminae caused by individual summer rainstorm deposits. Delta-fan surface samples and sediment trap data fingerprint different sediment source areas and transport processes from the watershed and confirm the instant response of sediment flux to rainfall and erosion. Based on a highly accurate, precise and reproducible chronology, we demonstrate that sediment accumulation (varve thickness) is a quantitative predictor for cumulative boreal alpine spring (May–June) and spring/summer (May–August) rainfall (rMJ = 0.71, rMJJA = 0.60, p < 0.01). Bootstrap-based verification of the calibration model reveals a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPMJ = 32.7 mm, RMSEPMJJA = 57.8 mm) which is on the order of 10–13 % of mean MJ and MJJA cumulative precipitation, respectively. These results highlight the potential of the Lake Oeschinen sediments for high-resolution reconstructions of past rainfall conditions in the northern Swiss Alps, central and eastern France and south-west Germany.

High-Pressure Behavior and Phase Stability of Al5BO9, a Mullite-Type Ceramic Material

Phase stability, elastic behavior, and pressure-induced structural evolution of synthetic boron-mullite Al5BO9 (a = 5.6780(7), b = 15.035(6), and c =7.698(3) Å, space group Cmc21, Z = 4) were investigated up to 25.6(1) GPa by in situ single-crystal synchrotron X-ray diffraction with a diamond anvil cell (DAC) under hydrostatic conditions. No evidence of phase transition was observed up to 21.7(1) GPa. At 25.6(1) GPa, the refined unit-cell parameters deviated significantly from the compressional trend, and the diffraction peaks appeared broader than at lower pressure. At 26.7(1) GPa, the diffraction pattern was not indexable, suggesting amorphization of the material or a phase transition to a high-pressure polymorph. Fitting the P–V data up to 21.7(1) GPa with a second-order Birch–Murnaghan Equation-of-State, we obtained a bulk modulus KT0 = 164(1) GPa. The axial compressibilities, here described as linearized bulk moduli, are as follows: KT0(a) = 244(9), KT0(b) = 120(4), and KT0(c) = 166(11) GPa (KT0(a):KT0(b):KT0(c) = 2.03:1:1.38). The structure refinements allowed a description of the main deformation mechanisms in response to the applied pressure. The stiffer crystallographic direction appears to be controlled by the infinite chains of edge-sharing octahedra running along [100], making the structure less compressible along the a-axis than along the b- and c-axis.

Numerical solution of optimal control problems with constant control delays

We investigate a class of optimal control problems that exhibit constant exogenously given delays in the control in the equation of motion of the differential states. Therefore, we formulate an exemplary optimal control problem with one stock and one control variable and review some analytic properties of an optimal solution. However, analytical considerations are quite limited in case of delayed optimal control problems. In order to overcome these limits, we reformulate the problem and apply direct numerical methods to calculate approximate solutions that give a better understanding of this class of optimization problems. In particular, we present two possibilities to reformulate the delayed optimal control problem into an instantaneous optimal control problem and show how these can be solved numerically with a stateof- the-art direct method by applying Bock’s direct multiple shooting algorithm. We further demonstrate the strength of our approach by two economic examples.

How do different aspects of self-regulation predict successful adaptation to school?

Self-regulation plays an important role in successful adaptation to preschool and school contexts as well as in later academic achievement. The current study relates different aspects of self-regulation such as temperamental effortful control and executive functions (updating, inhibition, and shifting) to different aspects of adaptation to school such as learning-related behavior, school grades, and performance in standardized achievement tests. The relationship between executive functions/effortful control and academic achievement has been established in previous studies; however, little is known about their unique contributions to different aspects of adaptation to school and the interplay of these factors in young school children. Results of a 1-year longitudinal study (N = 459) revealed that unique contributions of effortful control (parental report) to school grades were fully mediated by children’s learning-related behavior. On the other hand, the unique contributions of executive functions (performance on tasks) to school grades were only partially mediated by children’s learning-related behavior. Moreover, executive functions predicted performance in standardized achievement tests exclusively, with comparable predictive power for mathematical and reading/writing skills. Controlling for fluid intelligence did not change the pattern of prediction substantially, and fluid intelligence did not explain any variance above that of the two included aspects of self-regulation. Although effortful control and executive functions were not significantly related to each other, both aspects of self-regulation were shown to be important for fostering early learning and good classroom adjustment in children around transition to school.

A chrysophyte-based quantitative reconstruction of winter severity from varved lake sediments in NE Poland during the past millennium and its relationship to natural climate variability

Chrysophyte cysts are recognized as powerful proxies of cold-season temperatures. In this paper we use the relationship between chrysophyte assemblages and the number of days below 4 °C (DB4 °C) in the epilimnion of a lake in northern Poland to develop a transfer function and to reconstruct winter severity in Poland for the last millennium. DB4 °C is a climate variable related to the length of the winter. Multivariate ordination techniques were used to study the distribution of chrysophytes from sediment traps of 37 low-land lakes distributed along a variety of environmental and climatic gradients in northern Poland. Of all the environmental variables measured, stepwise variable selection and individual Redundancy analyses (RDA) identified DB4 °C as the most important variable for chrysophytes, explaining a portion of variance independent of variables related to water chemistry (conductivity, chlorides, K, sulfates), which were also important. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate DB4 °C from sedimentary assemblages using partial least square regression (PLS). The two-component model (PLS-2) had a coefficient of determination of View the MathML sourceRcross2 = 0.58, with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on leave-one-out) of 3.41 days. The resulting transfer function was applied to an annually-varved sediment core from Lake Żabińskie, providing a new sub-decadal quantitative reconstruction of DB4 °C with high chronological accuracy for the period AD 1000–2010. During Medieval Times (AD 1180–1440) winters were generally shorter (warmer) except for a decade with very long and severe winters around AD 1260–1270 (following the AD 1258 volcanic eruption). The 16th and 17th centuries and the beginning of the 19th century experienced very long severe winters. Comparison with other European cold-season reconstructions and atmospheric indices for this region indicates that large parts of the winter variability (reconstructed DB4 °C) is due to the interplay between the oscillations of the zonal flow controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the influence of continental anticyclonic systems (Siberian High, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern). Differences with other European records are attributed to geographic climatological differences between Poland and Western Europe (Low Countries, Alps). Striking correspondence between the combined volcanic and solar forcing and the DB4 °C reconstruction prior to the 20th century suggests that winter climate in Poland responds mostly to natural forced variability (volcanic and solar) and the influence of unforced variability is low.

Modern diatom, cladocera, chironomid, and chrysophyte cyst assemblages as quantitative indicators for the reconstruction of past environmental conditions in the Alps. II. Nutrients

Surface sediments from 68 small lakes in the Alps and 9 well-dated sediment core samples that cover a gradient of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations of 6 to 520 μg TP l-1 were studied for diatom, chrysophyte cyst, cladocera, and chironomid assemblages. Inference models for mean circulation log10 TP were developed for diatoms, chironomids, and benthic cladocera using weighted-averaging partial least squares. After screening for outliers, the final transfer functions have coefficients of determination (r2, as assessed by cross-validation, of 0.79 (diatoms), 0.68 (chironomids), and 0.49 (benthic cladocera). Planktonic cladocera and chrysophytes show very weak relationships to TP and no TP inference models were developed for these biota. Diatoms showed the best relationship with TP, whereas the other biota all have large secondary gradients, suggesting that variables other than TP have a strong influence on their composition and abundance. Comparison with other diatom – TP inference models shows that our model has high predictive power and a low root mean squared error of prediction, as assessed by cross-validation.

A study of oxygen isotopic fractionation during bio-induced calcite precipitation in eutrophic Baldeggersee, Switzerland

In order to better understand environmental factors controlling oxygen isotope shifts in autochthonous lacustrine carbonate sequences, we undertook an extensive one-year study (March, 1995 to February, 1996) of water-column chemistry and daily sediment trap material from a small lake in Central Switzerland. Comparisons between calculated equilibrium isotope values, using the fractionation equation of Friedman and O’Neil, (1977) and measured oxygen isotope ratios of calcite in the sediment-traps reveal that oxygen isotopic values of autochthonous calcite (δ18O) are in isotopic equilibrium with ambient water during most of the spring and summer, when the majority of the calcite precipitates. In contrast, small amounts of calcite precipitated in early-spring and again in late-autumn are isotopically depleted in 18O relative to the calculated equilibrium values, by as much as 0.8‰. This seasonally occurring apparent isotopic nonequilibrium is associated with times of high phosphorous concentrations, elevated pH (∼8.6) and increased [CO32−] (∼50 μmol/l) in the surface waters. The resulting weighted average δ18O value for the studied period is −9.6‰, compared with a calculated equilibrium δ18O value of −9.4‰. These data convincingly demonstrate that δ18O of calcite are, for the most part, a very reliable proxy for temperature and δ18O of the water.

Critical core mass for enriched envelopes: the role of H2O condensation

Context. Within the core accretion scenario of planetary formation, most simulations performed so far always assume the accreting envelope to have a solar composition. From the study of meteorite showers on Earth and numerical simulations, we know that planetesimals must undergo thermal ablation and disruption when crossing a protoplanetary envelope. Thus, once the protoplanet has acquired an atmosphere, not all planetesimals reach the core intact, i.e. the primordial envelope (mainly H and He) gets enriched in volatiles and silicates from the planetesimals. This change of envelope composition during the formation can have a significant effect on the final atmospheric composition and on the formation timescale of giant planets. Aims. We investigate the physical implications of considering the envelope enrichment of protoplanets due to the disruption of icy planetesimals during their way to the core. Particular focus is placed on the effect on the critical core mass for envelopes where condensation of water can occur. Methods. Internal structure models are numerically solved with the implementation of updated opacities for all ranges of metallicities and the software Chemical Equilibrium with Applications to compute the equation of state. This package computes the chemical equilibrium for an arbitrary mixture of gases and allows the condensation of some species, including water. This means that the latent heat of phase transitions is consistently incorporated in the total energy budget. Results. The critical core mass is found to decrease significantly when an enriched envelope composition is considered in the internal structure equations. A particularly strong reduction of the critical core mass is obtained for planets whose envelope metallicity is larger than Z approximate to 0.45 when the outer boundary conditions are suitable for condensation of water to occur in the top layers of the atmosphere. We show that this effect is qualitatively preserved even when the atmosphere is out of chemical equilibrium. Conclusions. Our results indicate that the effect of water condensation in the envelope of protoplanets can severely affect the critical core mass, and should be considered in future studies.