Forecasting Intraday Stock Price Trends with Text Mining Techniques

In this paper, we describe NewsCATS (news categorization and trading system), a system implemented to predict stock price trends for the time immediately after the publication of press releases. NewsCATS consists mainly of three components. The first component retrieves relevant information from press releases through the application of text preprocessing techniques. The second component sorts the press releases into predefined categories. Finally, appropriate trading strategies are derived by the third component by means of the earlier categorization. The findings indicate that a categorization of press releases is able to provide additional information that can be used to forecast stock price trends, but that an adequate trading strategy is essential for the results of the categorization to be fully exploited.

Multi-scale micro-structure generation strategy for up-scaling transport in clays

Clays and claystones are used as backfill and barrier materials in the design of waste repositories, because they act as hydraulic barriers and retain contaminants. Transport through such barriers occurs mainly by molecular diffusion. There is thus an interest to relate the diffusion properties of clays to their structural properties. In previous work, we have developed a concept for up-scaling pore-scale molecular diffusion coefficients using a grid-based model for the sample pore structure. Here we present an operational algorithm which can generate such model pore structures of polymineral materials. The obtained pore maps match the rock’s mineralogical components and its macroscopic properties such as porosity, grain and pore size distributions. Representative ensembles of grains in 2D or 3D are created by a lattice Monte Carlo (MC) method, which minimizes the interfacial energy of grains starting from an initial grain distribution. Pores are generated at grain boundaries and/or within grains. The method is general and allows to generate anisotropic structures with grains of approximately predetermined shapes, or with mixtures of different grain types. A specific focus of this study was on the simulation of clay-like materials. The generated clay pore maps were then used to derive upscaled effective diffusion coefficients for non-sorbing tracers using a homogenization technique. The large number of generated maps allowed to check the relations between micro-structural features of clays and their effective transport parameters, as is required to explain and extrapolate experimental diffusion results. As examples, we present a set of 2D and 3D simulations and investigated the effects of nanopores within particles (interlayer pores) and micropores between particles. Archie’s simple power law is followed in systems with only micropores. When nanopores are present, additional parameters are required; the data reveal that effective diffusion coefficients could be described by a sum of two power functions, related to the micro- and nanoporosity. We further used the model to investigate the relationships between particle orientation and effective transport properties of the sample.

A Dose-Response Strategy Reveals Differences between Normal-Weight and Obese Men in Their Metabolic and Inflammatory Responses to a High-Fat Meal.

A dose-response strategy may not only allow investigation of the impact of foods and nutrients on human health but may also reveal differences in the response of individuals to food ingestion based on their metabolic health status. In a randomized crossover study, we challenged 19 normal-weight (BMI: 20-25 kg/m(2)) and 18 obese (BMI: >30 kg/m(2)) men with 500, 1000, and 1500 kcal of a high-fat (HF) meal (60.5% energy from fat). Blood was taken at baseline and up to 6 h postprandially and analyzed for a range of metabolic, inflammatory, and hormonal variables, including plasma glucose, lipids, and C-reactive protein and serum insulin, glucagon-like peptide-1, interleukin-6 (IL-6), and endotoxin. Insulin was the only variable that could differentiate the postprandial response of normal-weight and obese participants at each of the 3 caloric doses. A significant response of the inflammatory marker IL-6 was only observed in the obese group after ingestion of the HF meal containing 1500 kcal [net incremental AUC (net iAUC) = 22.9 ± 6.8 pg/mL × 6 h, P = 0.002]. Furthermore, the net iAUC for triglycerides significantly increased from the 1000 to the 1500 kcal meal in the obese group (5.0 ± 0.5 mmol/L × 6 h vs. 6.0 ± 0.5 mmol/L × 6 h, P = 0.015) but not in the normal-weight group (4.3 ± 0.5 mmol/L × 6 h vs. 4.8 ± 0.5 mmol/L × 6 h, P = 0.31). We propose that caloric dose-response studies may contribute to a better understanding of the metabolic impact of food on the human organism. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01446068.

Germania: l’indomabile trading state

Basato su interviste con i principali attori tedeschi e su un’analisi della letteratura, l’articolo analizza lo sviluppo recente dell’economia tedesca e la strategia tedesca nell’affrontare la crisi dell’eurozona. La Germania è uno stato commerciale (trading state), la cui crescita è fortemente trainata dalle esportazioni. Fino agli anni novanta, rigidità istituzionali forti, nel sistema di relazioni industriali e nel sistema di protezione sociale, contribuivano a conciliare lo sviluppo delle esportazioni con una crescita armonica dei consumi interni, contribuendo cosi a ingabbiare la «tigre» tedesca. A partire dagli anni novanta, sia le relazioni industriali sia la protezione sociale sono state fortemente liberalizzate, stimolando ulteriormente la competitività estera e indebolendo i consumi interni. Il modello economico tedesco, cosi come è venuto profilandosi negli ultimi dieci anni, è alla base delle politiche di austerità che la Germania impone all’Europa. Tali politiche sono fortemente condivise dai partiti politici, dagli attori sociali e dall’opinione pubblica, e le probabilità che la strategia tedesca cambi sono minime.

The Crisis and Germany: The Trading State Unleashed

Based on interviews with the main German actors and on secondary sources, the article examines the recent development of the German political economy, and the German strategy vis-à-vis the Euro zone. Germany is a trading state whose economic growth is strongly export-led. Until the years 1990s, strong institutional rigidities, both in industrial relations and in the welfare state, contributed to reconcile export growth with household consumption, thus keeping the German “tiger” on a leash. From the early 1990s on, however, both industrial relations and social protections have been strongly liberalized, thus further stimulating external competitiveness and reducing the role of consumption in the German growth model. The unleashed trading state shapes the German response to the Euro crisis and the austerity policies that Germany imposes to Europe. These policies are strongly supported by political parties, social actors, and public opinion in Germany, and the likelihood that they change in the near future is minimal.