A qualitative risk assessment approach for Swiss dairy products: opportunities and limitations

Switzerland implemented a risk-based monitoring of Swiss dairy products in 2002 based on a risk assessment (RA) that considered the probability of exceeding a microbiological limit value set by law. A new RA was launched in 2007 to review and further develop the previous assessment, and to make recommendations for future risk-based monitoring according to current risks. The resulting qualitative RA was designed to ascertain the risk to human health from the consumption of Swiss dairy products. The products and microbial hazards to be considered in the RA were determined based on a risk profile. The hazards included Campylobacter spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, coagulase-positive staphylococci and Staphylococcus aureus enterotoxin. The release assessment considered the prevalence of the hazards in bulk milk samples, the influence of the process parameters on the microorganisms, and the influence of the type of dairy. The exposure assessment was linked to the production volume. An overall probability was estimated combining the probabilities of release and exposure for each combination of hazard, dairy product and type of dairy. This overall probability represents the likelihood of a product from a certain type of dairy exceeding the microbiological limit value and being passed on to the consumer. The consequences could not be fully assessed due to lack of detailed information on the number of disease cases caused by the consumption of dairy products. The results were expressed as a ranking of overall probabilities. Finally, recommendations for the design of the risk-based monitoring programme and for filling the identified data gaps were given. The aims of this work were (i) to present the qualitative RA approach for Swiss dairy products, which could be adapted to other settings and (ii) to discuss the opportunities and limitations of the qualitative method.

Feasibility and acceptance of electronic quality of life assessment in general practice: an implementation study

Background Patients' health related quality of life (HRQoL) has rarely been systematically monitored in general practice. Electronic tools and practice training might facilitate the routine application of HRQoL questionnaires. Thorough piloting of innovative procedures is strongly recommended before the conduction of large-scale studies. Therefore, we aimed to assess i) the feasibility and acceptance of HRQoL assessment using tablet computers in general practice, ii) the perceived practical utility of HRQoL results and iii) to identify possible barriers hindering wider application of this approach. Methods Two HRQoL questionnaires (St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire SGRQ and EORTC QLQ-C30) were electronically presented on portable tablet computers. Wireless network (WLAN) integration into practice computer systems of 14 German general practices with varying infrastructure allowed automatic data exchange and the generation of a printout or a PDF file. General practitioners (GPs) and practice assistants were trained in a 1-hour course, after which they could invite patients with chronic diseases to fill in the electronic questionnaire during their waiting time. We surveyed patients, practice assistants and GPs regarding their acceptance of this tool in semi-structured telephone interviews. The number of assessments, HRQoL results and interview responses were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods. Results Over the course of 1 year, 523 patients filled in the electronic questionnaires (1–5 times; 664 total assessments). On average, results showed specific HRQoL impairments, e.g. with respect to fatigue, pain and sleep disturbances. The number of electronic assessments varied substantially between practices. A total of 280 patients, 27 practice assistants and 17 GPs participated in the telephone interviews. Almost all GPs (16/17 = 94%; 95% CI = 73–99%), most practice assistants (19/27 = 70%; 95% CI = 50–86%) and the majority of patients (240/280 = 86%; 95% CI = 82–91%) indicated that they would welcome the use of electronic HRQoL questionnaires in the future. GPs mentioned availability of local health services (e.g. supportive, physiotherapy) (mean: 9.4 ± 1.0 SD; scale: 1 – 10), sufficient extra time (8.9 ± 1.5) and easy interpretation of HRQoL results (8.6 ± 1.6) as the most important prerequisites for their use. They believed HRQoL assessment facilitated both communication and follow up of patients' conditions. Practice assistants emphasised that this process demonstrated an extra commitment to patient centred care; patients viewed it as a tool, which contributed to the physicians' understanding of their personal condition and circumstances. Conclusion This pilot study indicates that electronic HRQoL assessment is technically feasible in general practices. It can provide clinically significant information, which can either be used in the consultation for routine care, or for research purposes. While GPs, practice assistants and patients were generally positive about the electronic procedure, several barriers (e.g. practices' lack of time and routine in HRQoL assessment) need to be overcome to enable broader application of electronic questionnaires in every day medical practice.

Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PAHs and oxygenated PAHs) and trace metals in fish species from Ghana (West Africa): Bioaccumulation and health risk assessment

We report the concentrations of 28 PAHs, 15 oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs) and 11 trace metals/metalloids (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn) in muscle and gut + gill tissues of demersal fishes (Drapane africana, Cynoglossus senegalensis and Pomadasys peroteti) from three locations along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea (Ghana). The concentrations of ∑ 28PAHs in muscle tissues averaged 192 ng g− 1 dw (range: 71–481 ng g− 1 dw) and were not statistically different between locations. The concentrations of ∑ 28 PAHs were higher in guts + gills than in muscles. The PAH composition pattern was dominated by low molecular weight compounds (naphthalene, alkyl-naphthalenes and phenanthrene). All fish tissues had benzo[a]pyrene concentrations lower than the EU limit for food safety. Excess cancer risk from consumption of some fish was higher than the guideline value of 1 × 10− 6. The concentrations of ∑ 15 OPAHs in fish muscles averaged 422 ng g− 1 dw (range: 28–1715 ng g− 1dw). The ∑ 15 OPAHs/∑ 16 US-EPA PAHs concentration ratio was > 1 in 68% of the fish muscles and 100% of guts + gills. The log-transformed concentrations of PAHs and OPAHs in muscles, guts + gills were significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with their octanol–water partitioning coefficients, strongly suggesting that equilibrium partitioning from water/sediment into fish tissue was the main mechanism of bioaccumulation. The trace metal concentrations in the fish tissues were in the medium range when compared to fish from other parts of the world. The concentrations of some trace metals (Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) were higher in guts + gills than in muscle tissues. The target hazard quotients for metals were < 1 and did not indicate a danger to the local population. We conclude that the health risk arising from the consumption of the studied fish (due to their PAHs and trace metals content) is minimal.

Effect of Health Risk Assessment and Counselling on Health Behaviour and Survival in Older People: A Pragmatic Randomised Trial.

BACKGROUND Potentially avoidable risk factors continue to cause unnecessary disability and premature death in older people. Health risk assessment (HRA), a method successfully used in working-age populations, is a promising method for cost-effective health promotion and preventive care in older individuals, but the long-term effects of this approach are unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of an innovative approach to HRA and counselling in older individuals for health behaviours, preventive care, and long-term survival. METHODS AND FINDINGS This study was a pragmatic, single-centre randomised controlled clinical trial in community-dwelling individuals aged 65 y or older registered with one of 19 primary care physician (PCP) practices in a mixed rural and urban area in Switzerland. From November 2000 to January 2002, 874 participants were randomly allocated to the intervention and 1,410 to usual care. The intervention consisted of HRA based on self-administered questionnaires and individualised computer-generated feedback reports, combined with nurse and PCP counselling over a 2-y period. Primary outcomes were health behaviours and preventive care use at 2 y and all-cause mortality at 8 y. At baseline, participants in the intervention group had a mean ± standard deviation of 6.9 ± 3.7 risk factors (including unfavourable health behaviours, health and functional impairments, and social risk factors) and 4.3 ± 1.8 deficits in recommended preventive care. At 2 y, favourable health behaviours and use of preventive care were more frequent in the intervention than in the control group (based on z-statistics from generalised estimating equation models). For example, 70% compared to 62% were physically active (odds ratio 1.43, 95% CI 1.16-1.77, p = 0.001), and 66% compared to 59% had influenza vaccinations in the past year (odds ratio 1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.66, p = 0.005). At 8 y, based on an intention-to-treat analysis, the estimated proportion alive was 77.9% in the intervention and 72.8% in the control group, for an absolute mortality difference of 4.9% (95% CI 1.3%-8.5%, p = 0.009; based on z-test for risk difference). The hazard ratio of death comparing intervention with control was 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.94, p = 0.009; based on Wald test from Cox regression model), and the number needed to receive the intervention to prevent one death was 21 (95% CI 12-79). The main limitations of the study include the single-site study design, the use of a brief self-administered questionnaire for 2-y outcome data collection, the unavailability of other long-term outcome data (e.g., functional status, nursing home admissions), and the availability of long-term follow-up data on mortality for analysis only in 2014. CONCLUSIONS This is the first trial to our knowledge demonstrating that a collaborative care model of HRA in community-dwelling older people not only results in better health behaviours and increased use of recommended preventive care interventions, but also improves survival. The intervention tested in our study may serve as a model of how to implement a relatively low-cost but effective programme of disease prevention and health promotion in older individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number: ISRCTN 28458424.

Proposal on How To Conduct a Biopharmaceutical Process Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) as a Risk Assessment Tool

With the publication of the quality guideline ICH Q9 "Quality Risk Management" by the International Conference on Harmonization, risk management has already become a standard requirement during the life cycle of a pharmaceutical product. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a powerful risk analysis tool that has been used for decades in mechanical and electrical industries. However, the adaptation of the FMEA methodology to biopharmaceutical processes brings about some difficulties. The proposal presented here is intended to serve as a brief but nevertheless comprehensive and detailed guideline on how to conduct a biopharmaceutical process FMEA. It includes a detailed 1-to-10-scale FMEA rating table for occurrence, severity, and detectability of failures that has been especially designed for typical biopharmaceutical processes. The application for such a biopharmaceutical process FMEA is widespread. It can be useful whenever a biopharmaceutical manufacturing process is developed or scaled-up, or when it is transferred to a different manufacturing site. It may also be conducted during substantial optimization of an existing process or the development of a second-generation process. According to their resulting risk ratings, process parameters can be ranked for importance and important variables for process development, characterization, or validation can be identified. LAY ABSTRACT: Health authorities around the world ask pharmaceutical companies to manage risk during development and manufacturing of pharmaceuticals. The so-called failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an established risk analysis tool that has been used for decades in mechanical and electrical industries. However, the adaptation of the FMEA methodology to pharmaceutical processes that use modern biotechnology (biopharmaceutical processes) brings about some difficulties, because those biopharmaceutical processes differ from processes in mechanical and electrical industries. The proposal presented here explains how a biopharmaceutical process FMEA can be conducted. It includes a detailed 1-to-10-scale FMEA rating table for occurrence, severity, and detectability of failures that has been especially designed for typical biopharmaceutical processes. With the help of this guideline, different details of the manufacturing process can be ranked according to their potential risks, and this can help pharmaceutical companies to identify aspects with high potential risks and to react accordingly to improve the safety of medicines.

Screening and testing for endocrine disruption in fish-biomarkers as "signposts," not "traffic lights," in risk assessment

Biomarkers are currently best used as mechanistic "signposts" rather than as "traffic lights" in the environmental risk assessment of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs). In field studies, biomarkers of exposure [e.g., vitellogenin (VTG) induction in male fish] are powerful tools for tracking single substances and mixtures of concern. Biomarkers also provide linkage between field and laboratory data, thereby playing an important role in directing the need for and design of fish chronic tests for EDCs. It is the adverse effect end points (e.g., altered development, growth, and/or reproduction) from such tests that are most valuable for calculating adverseNOEC (no observed effect concentration) or adverseEC10 (effective concentration for a 10% response) and subsequently deriving predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs). With current uncertainties, biomarkerNOEC or biomarkerEC10 data should not be used in isolation to derive PNECs. In the future, however, there may be scope to increasingly use biomarker data in environmental decision making, if plausible linkages can be made across levels of organization such that adverse outcomes might be envisaged relative to biomarker responses. For biomarkers to fulfil their potential, they should be mechanistically relevant and reproducible (as measured by interlaboratory comparisons of the same protocol). VTG is a good example of such a biomarker in that it provides an insight to the mode of action (estrogenicity) that is vital to fish reproductive health. Interlaboratory reproducibility data for VTG are also encouraging; recent comparisons (using the same immunoassay protocol) have provided coefficients of variation (CVs) of 38-55% (comparable to published CVs of 19-58% for fish survival and growth end points used in regulatory test guidelines). While concern over environmental xenoestrogens has led to the evaluation of reproductive biomarkers in fish, it must be remembered that many substances act via diverse mechanisms of action such that the environmental risk assessment for EDCs is a broad and complex issue. Also, biomarkers such as secondary sexual characteristics, gonadosomatic indices, plasma steroids, and gonadal histology have significant potential for guiding interspecies assessments of EDCs and designing fish chronic tests. To strengthen the utility of EDC biomarkers in fish, we need to establish a historical control database (also considering natural variability) to help differentiate between statistically detectable versus biologically significant responses. In conclusion, as research continues to develop a range of useful EDC biomarkers, environmental decision-making needs to move forward, and it is proposed that the "biomarkers as signposts" approach is a pragmatic way forward in the current risk assessment of EDCs.

Risk assessment and preventive measures

A prerequisite for preventive measures is to diagnose erosive tooth wear and to evaluate the different etiological factors in order to identify persons at risk. No diagnostic device is available for the assessment of erosive defects. Thus, they can only be detected clinically. Consequently, erosion not diagnosed in the early stage may render timely preventive measures difficult. In order to assess the risk factors, patient should record their dietary intake for a distinct period of time. Then a dentist can determine the erosive potential of the diet. Particularly, patients with more than four dietary acid intakes have a higher risk for erosion when other risk factors (such as holding the drink in the mouth) are present. Regurgitation of gastric acids (reflux, vomiting, alcohol abuse, etc.) is a further important risk factor for the development of erosion which has to be taken into account. Based on these analyses, an individually tailored preventive program may be suggested to the patients. It may comprise dietary advice, optimization of fluoride regimes, stimulation of salivary flow rate, use of buffering medicaments and particular motivation for nondestructive toothbrushing habits with a low abrasive toothpaste. The frequent use of fluoride gel and fluoride solution in addition to fluoride toothpaste offers the opportunity to reduce somewhat abrasion of tooth substance. It is also advisable to avoid abrasive tooth cleaning and whitening products, since they may remove the pellicle and may render teeth more susceptible to erosion. Since erosion, attrition and abrasion often occur simultaneously all causative components must be taken into consideration when planning preventive strategies.

Whole-body vibration exposure study in U.S. railroad locomotives--an ergonomic risk assessment

Whole-body vibration exposure of locomotive engineers and the vibration attenuation of seats in 22 U.S. locomotives (built between 1959 and 2000) was studied during normal revenue service and following international measurement guidelines. Triaxial vibration measurements (duration mean 155 min, range 84-383 min) on the seat and on the floor were compared. In addition to the basic vibration evaluation (aw rms), the vector sum (av), the maximum transient vibration value (MTVV/aw), the vibration dose value (VDV/(aw T1/4)), and the vibration seat effective transmissibility factor (SEAT) were calculated. The power spectral densities are also reported. The mean basic vibration level (aw rms) was for the fore-aft axis x = 0.18 m/sec2, the lateral axis y = 0.28 m/sec2, and the vertical axis z = 0.32 m/sec2. The mean vector sum was 0.59 m/sec2 (range 0.27 to 1.44). The crest factors were generally at or above 9 in the horizontal and vertical axis. The mean MTVV/aw was 5.3 (x), 5.1 (y), and 4.8 (z), and the VDV/(aw T1/4) values ranged from 1.32 to 2.3 (x-axis), 1.33 to 1.7 (y-axis), and 1.38 to 1.86 (z-axis), generally indicating high levels of shocks. The mean seat transmissibility factor (SEAT) was 1.4 (x) and 1.2 (y) and 1 (z), demonstrating a general ineffectiveness of any of the seat suspension systems. In conclusion, these data indicate that locomotive rides are characterized by relatively high shock content (acceleration peaks) of the vibration signal in all directions. Locomotive vertical and lateral vibrations are similar, which appears to be characteristic for rail vehicles compared with many road/off-road vehicles. Tested locomotive cab seats currently in use (new or old) appear inadequate to reduce potentially harmful vibration and shocks transmitted to the seated operator, and older seats particularly lack basic ergonomic features regarding adjustability and postural support.

PM2.5-bound oxygenated PAHs, nitro-PAHs and parent-PAHs from the atmosphere of a Chinese megacity: seasonal variation, sources and cancer risk assessment

Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in air particulate matter contribute considerably to the health risk of air pollution. The objectives of this study were to assess the occurrence and variation in concentrations and sources of PM2.5-bound PACs [Oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs), nitro-PAHs and parent-PAHs] sampled from the atmosphere of a typical Chinese megacity (Xi'an), to study the influence of meteorological conditions on PACs and to estimate the lifetime excess cancer risk to the residents of Xi'an (from inhalation of PM2.5-bound PACs). To achieve these objectives, we sampled 24-h PM2.5 aerosols (once in every 6 days, from 5 July 2008 to 8 August 2009) from the atmosphere of Xi'an and measured the concentrations of PACs in them. The PM2.5-bound concentrations of Σcarbonyl-OPAHs, ∑ hydroxyl + carboxyl-OPAHs, Σnitro-PAHs and Σalkyl + parent-PAHs ranged between 5–22, 0.2–13, 0.3–7, and 7–387 ng m− 3, respectively, being markedly higher than in most western cities. This represented a range of 0.01–0.4% and 0.002–0.06% of the mass of organic C in PM2.5 and the total mass of PM2.5, respectively. The sums of the concentrations of each compound group had winter-to-summer ratios ranging from 3 to 8 and most individual OPAHs and nitro-PAHs had higher concentrations in winter than in summer, suggesting a dominant influence of emissions from household heating and winter meteorological conditions. Ambient temperature, air pressure, and wind speed explained a large part of the temporal variation in PACs concentrations. The lifetime excess cancer risk from inhalation (attributable to selected PAHs and nitro-PAHs) was six fold higher in winter (averaging 1450 persons per million residents of Xi'an) than in summer. Our results call for the development of emission control measures.

Risk assessment and causal preventive measures.

A prerequisite for preventive measures is to diagnose erosive tooth wear and to evaluate the different etiological factors in order to identify persons at risk. No diagnostic device is available for the assessment of erosive defects. Thus, they can only be detected clinically. Consequently, erosion not diagnosed at an early stage may render timely preventive measures difficult. In order to assess the risk factors, patients should record their dietary intake for a distinct period of time. Then a dentist can determine the erosive potential of the diet. A table with common beverages and foodstuffs is presented for judging the erosive potential. Particularly, patients with more than 4 dietary acid intakes have a higher risk for erosion when other risk factors are present. Regurgitation of gastric acids is a further important risk factor for the development of erosion which has to be taken into account. Based on these analyses, an individually tailored preventive program may be suggested to the patients. It may comprise dietary advice, use of calcium-enriched beverages, optimization of prophylactic regimes, stimulation of salivary flow rate, use of buffering medicaments and particular motivation for nondestructive toothbrushing habits with an erosive-protecting toothpaste as well as rinsing solutions. Since erosion and abrasion often occur simultaneously, all of the causative components must be taken into consideration when planning preventive strategies but only those important and feasible for an individual should be communicated to the patient.

Human and ecological risk assessment of a crop protection chemical: a case study with the azole fungicide epoxiconazole.

Conventional risk assessments for crop protection chemicals compare the potential for causing toxicity (hazard identification) to anticipated exposure. New regulatory approaches have been proposed that would exclude exposure assessment and just focus on hazard identification based on endocrine disruption. This review comprises a critical analysis of hazard, focusing on the relative sensitivity of endocrine and non-endocrine endpoints, using a class of crop protection chemicals, the azole fungicides. These were selected because they are widely used on important crops (e.g. grains) and thereby can contact target and non-target plants and enter the food chain of humans and wildlife. Inhibition of lanosterol 14α-demethylase (CYP51) mediates the antifungal effect. Inhibition of other CYPs, such as aromatase (CYP19), can lead to numerous toxicological effects, which are also evident from high dose human exposures to therapeutic azoles. Because of its widespread use and substantial database, epoxiconazole was selected as a representative azole fungicide. Our critical analysis concluded that anticipated human exposure to epoxiconazole would yield a margin of safety of at least three orders of magnitude for reproductive effects observed in laboratory rodent studies that are postulated to be endocrine-driven (i.e. fetal resorptions). The most sensitive ecological species is the aquatic plant Lemna (duckweed), for which the margin of safety is less protective than for human health. For humans and wildlife, endocrine disruption is not the most sensitive endpoint. It is concluded that conventional risk assessment, considering anticipated exposure levels, will be protective of both human and ecological health. Although the toxic mechanisms of other azole compounds may be similar, large differences in potency will require a case-by-case risk assessment.

Molecular risk assessment of BIG 1-98 participants by expression profiling using RNA from archival tissue

The purpose of the work reported here is to test reliable molecular profiles using routinely processed formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues from participants of the clinical trial BIG 1-98 with a median follow-up of 60 months.

High-altitude exposure in patients with cardiovascular disease: risk assessment and practical recommendations

Because of the development of modern transportation facilities, an ever rising number of individuals including many patients with preexisting diseases visit high-altitude locations (>2500 m). High-altitude exposure triggers a series of physiologic responses intended to maintain an adequate tissue oxygenation. Even in normal subjects, there is enormous interindividual variability in these responses that may be further amplified by environmental factors such as cold temperature, low humidity, exercise, and stress. These adaptive mechanisms, although generally tolerated by most healthy subjects, may induce major problems in patients with preexisting cardiovascular diseases in which the functional reserves are already limited. Preexposure assessment of patients helps to minimize risk and detect contraindications to high-altitude exposure. Moreover, the great variability and nonpredictability of the adaptive response should encourage physicians counseling such patients to adapt a cautionary approach. Here, we will briefly review how high-altitude adjustments may interfere with and aggravate/decompensate preexisting cardiovascular diseases. Moreover, we will provide practical recommendations on how to investigate and counsel patients with cardiovascular disease desiring to travel to high-altitude locations.

Significance of Periodontal Risk Assessment in the recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss

Aim: To investigate the association of the Periodontal Risk Assessment (PRA) model categories with periodontitis recurrence and tooth loss during supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) and to explore the role of patient compliance. Material and Methods: In a retrospective cohort, PRA was performed for 160 patients after active periodontal therapy (APT) and after 9.5 ± 4.5 years of SPT. The recurrence of periodontitis and tooth loss were analysed according to the patient's risk profile (low, moderate or high) after APT and compliance with SPT. The association of risk factors with tooth loss and recurrence of periodontitis was investigated using logistic regression analysis. Results: In 18.2% of patients with a low-risk profile, in 42.2% of patients with a moderate-risk profile and in 49.2% of patients with a high-risk profile after APT, periodontitis recurred. During SPT, 1.61 ± 2.8 teeth/patient were lost. High-risk profile patients lost significantly more teeth (2.59 ± 3.9) than patients with moderate- (1.02 ± 1.8) or low-risk profiles (1.18 ± 1.9) (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0229). Patients with erratic compliance lost significantly (Kruskal–Wallis test, p=0.0067) more teeth (3.11 ± 4.5) than patients compliant with SPT (1.07 ± 1.6). Conclusions: In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a high-risk patient profile according to the PRA model at the end of APT was associated with recurrence of periodontitis. Another significant factor for recurrence of periodontitis was an SPT duration of more than 10 years.

Risk assessment in the first fifteen minutes: a prospective cohort study of a simple physiological scoring system in the emergency department

Introduction The survival of patients admitted to an emergency department is determined by the severity of acute illness and the quality of care provided. The high number and the wide spectrum of severity of illness of admitted patients make an immediate assessment of all patients unrealistic. The aim of this study is to evaluate a scoring system based on readily available physiological parameters immediately after admission to an emergency department (ED) for the purpose of identification of at-risk patients. Methods This prospective observational cohort study includes 4,388 consecutive adult patients admitted via the ED of a 960-bed tertiary referral hospital over a period of six months. Occurrence of each of seven potential vital sign abnormalities (threat to airway, abnormal respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, low Glasgow Coma Scale and seizures) was collected and added up to generate the vital sign score (VSS). VSSinitial was defined as the VSS in the first 15 minutes after admission, VSSmax as the maximum VSS throughout the stay in ED. Occurrence of single vital sign abnormalities in the first 15 minutes and VSSinitial and VSSmax were evaluated as potential predictors of hospital mortality. Results Logistic regression analysis identified all evaluated single vital sign abnormalities except seizures and abnormal respiratory rate to be independent predictors of hospital mortality. Increasing VSSinitial and VSSmax were significantly correlated to hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) 2.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.50 to 3.14, P < 0.0001 for VSSinitial; OR 2.36, 95% CI 2.15 to 2.60, P < 0.0001 for VSSmax). The predictive power of VSS was highest if collected in the first 15 minutes after ED admission (log rank Chi-square 468.1, P < 0.0001 for VSSinitial;,log rank Chi square 361.5, P < 0.0001 for VSSmax). Conclusions Vital sign abnormalities and VSS collected in the first minutes after ED admission can identify patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.