Change-Enabled Software Systems

Few real software systems are built completely from scratch nowadays. Instead, systems are built iteratively and incrementally, while integrating and interacting with components from many other systems. Adaptation, reconfiguration and evolution are normal, ongoing processes throughout the lifecycle of a software system. Nevertheless the platforms, tools and environments we use to develop software are still largely based on an outmoded model that presupposes that software systems are closed and will not significantly evolve after deployment. We claim that in order to enable effective and graceful evolution of modern software systems, we must make these systems more amenable to change by (i) providing explicit, first-class models of software artifacts, change, and history at the level of the platform, (ii) continuously analysing static and dynamic evolution to track emergent properties, and (iii) closing the gap between the domain model and the developers' view of the evolving system. We outline our vision of dynamic, evolving software systems and identify the research challenges to realizing this vision.

Reversal of gender differences in Educational Attainment – historical analysis of the West German Case

Background information: During the late 1970s and the early 1980s, West Germany witnessed a reversal of gender differences in educational attainment, as females began to outperform males. Purpose: The main objective was to analyse which processes were behind the reversal of gender differences in educational attainment after 1945. The theoretical reflections and empirical evidence presented for the US context by DiPrete and Buchmann (Gender-specific trends in the value of education and the emerging gender gap in college completion, Demography 43: 1–24, 2006) and Buchmann, DiPrete, and McDaniel (Gender inequalities in education, Annual Review of Sociology 34: 319–37, 2008) are considered and applied to the West German context. It is suggested that the reversal of gender differences is a consequence of the change in female educational decisions, which are mainly related to labour market opportunities and not, as sometimes assumed, a consequence of a ‘boy’s crisis’. Sample: Several databases, such as the German General Social Survey, the German Socio-economic Panel and the German Life History Study, are employed for the longitudinal analysis of the educational and occupational careers of birth cohorts born in the twentieth century. Design and methods: Changing patterns of eligibility for university studies are analysed for successive birth cohorts and gender. Binary logistic regressions are employed for the statistical modelling of the individuals’ achievement, educational decision and likelihood for social mobility – reporting average marginal effects (AME). Results: The empirical results suggest that women’s better school achievement being constant across cohorts does not contribute to the explanation of the reversal of gender differences in higher education attainment, but the increase of benefits for higher education explains the changing educational decisions of women regarding their transition to higher education. Conclusions: The outperformance of females compared with males in higher education might have been initialised by several social changes, including the expansion of public employment, the growing demand for highly qualified female workers in welfare and service areas, the increasing returns of women’s increased education and training, and the improved opportunities for combining family and work outside the home. The historical data show that, in terms of (married) women’s increased labour market opportunities and female life-cycle labour force participation, the raising rates of women’s enrolment in higher education were – among other reasons – partly explained by their rising access to service class positions across birth cohorts, and the rise of their educational returns in terms of wages and long-term employment.

Variation in life-history traits and their plasticities to elevational transplantation among seed families suggests potential for adaptative evolution of 15 tropical plant species to climate change

• Premise of the study: Because not all plant species will be able to move in response to global warming, adaptive evolution matters largely for plant persistence. As prerequisites for adaptive evolution, genetic variation in and selection on phenotypic traits are needed, but these aspects have not been studied in tropical species. We studied how plants respond to transplantation to different elevations on Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, and whether there is quantitative genetic (among-seed family) variation in and selection on life-history traits and their phenotypic plasticity to the different environments. • Methods: We reciprocally transplanted seed families of 15 common tropical, herbaceous species of the montane and savanna vegetation zone at Mt. Kilimanjaro to a watered experimental garden in the montane (1450 m) and in the savanna (880 m) zone at the mountain’s slope and measured performance, reproductive, and phenological traits. • Results: Plants generally performed worse in the savanna garden, indicating that the savanna climate was more stressful and thus that plants may suffer from future climate warming. We found significant quantitative genetic variation in all measured performance and reproductive traits in both gardens and for several measures of phenotypic plasticity in response to elevational transplantation. Moreover, we found positive selection on traits at low and intermediate trait values levelling to neutral or negative selection at high values. • Conclusions: We conclude that common plants at Mt. Kilimanjaro express quantitative genetic variation in fitness-relevant traits and in their plasticities, suggesting potential to adapt evolutionarily to future climate warming and increased temperature variability.

Life history, ecology and the biogeography of strong genetic breaks among 15 species of PaciWc rockWsh, Sebastes

Strong genetic change over short spatial scales is surprising among marine species with high dispersal potential. Concordant breaks among several species signals a role for geographic barriers to dispersal. Along the coast of California, such breaks have not been seen across the biogeographic barrier of Point Conception, but other potential geographic boundaries have been surveyed less often.;We tested for strong-population structure in 11 species of Sebastes sampled across two regions containing potential dispersal barriers, and conducted a meta-analysis including four additional species. We show two strong breaks north of Monterey Bay, spanning an oceanographic gradient and an upwelling jet. Moderate genetic structure is just as common in the north as it is in the south, across the biogeographic break at Point Conception. Gene Xow is generally higher among deep-water species, but these conclusions are confounded by phylogeny. Species in the subgenus Sebastosomus have higher structure than those in the subgenus;Pteropodus, despite having larvae with longer pelagic phases. DiVerences in settlement behavior in the face of ocean currents might help explain these diVerences. Across similar species across the same coastal environment, we document a wide variety of patterns in gene Xow, suggesting that interaction of individual species traits such as settlement behavior with environmental factors such as;oceanography can strongly impact population structure

Global Change and the World's Mountain. Where are we coming from, and where are we going to?

The history of mountain research is most fascinating. Three names for 3 centuries may give an idea of the growing knowledge about the world's mountains: Horace Bénédict de Saussure, who climbed and studied the Mont Blanc in 1787; Alexander von Humboldt, ever investigating the environment during his attempt to ascend the Chimborazo in 1802; and Carl Troll, who founded the International Geographical Union's Commission on High-altitude Geoecology in 1968. Awareness of the growing impact of human activities on the environment led to scientific and political initiatives at the global level, beginning in the 1970s. The Perth conference in 2010 has offered an opportunity to both look back on these developments and explore the future of the world's mountains in a time of rapidly growing “global change” problems and processes.

Mid-Holocene Climate and Culture Change in the South Central Ande

This chapter reviews the history of study and the current status of Mid-Holocene climatic and cultural change in the South Central Andes, which host a wide range of different habitats from Pacific coastal areas up to extremely harsh cold and dry environments of the high mountain plateau, the altiplano or the puna. Paleoenvironmental information reveals high amplitude and rapid changes in effective moisture during the Holocene period and, consequently, dramatically changing environmental conditions. Therefore, this area is suitable to study the response of hunting and gathering societies to environmental changes, because the smallest variations in the climatic conditions have large impacts on resources and the living space of humans. This chapter analyzes environmental and paleoclimatic information from lake sediments, ice cores, pollen profiles, and geomorphic processes and relates these with the cultural and geographic settlement patterns of human occupation in the different habitats in the area of southern Peru, southwest Bolivia, northwest Argentina, and north Chile and puts in perspective of the early and late Holocene to present a representative range of environmental and cultural changes. It has been found that the largest changes took place around 9000 cal yr BP when the humid early Holocene conditions were replaced by extremely arid but highly variable climatic conditions. These resulted in a marked decrease of human occupation, “ecological refuges,” increased mobility, and an orientation toward habitats with relatively stable resources (such as the coast, the puna seca, and “ecological refuges”).

Effect of once-yearly zoledronic acid 5 mg on fracture risk and change in femoral neck bone mineral density

Context: In the Health Outcomes and Reduced Incidence with Zoledronic Acid Once Yearly - Pivotal Fracture Trial (HORIZON-PFT), zoledronic acid (ZOL) 5 mg significantly reduced fracture risk. Objective: To identify factors associated with greater efficacy during ZOL 5 mg treatment. Design, Setting and Patients: Subgroup analysis (preplanned and post hoc) of a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 36-month trial in 7765 women with postmenopausal osteoporosis. Intervention: Single infusion of ZOL 5 mg or placebo at baseline, 12 and 24 months. Main Outcome Measures: Primary endpoints: new vertebral fracture and hip fracture. Secondary endpoints: non-vertebral fracture, change in femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Baseline risk factor subgroups: age, BMD T-score and vertebral fracture status, total hip BMD, race, weight, geographical region, smoking, height loss, history of falls, physical activity, prior bisphosphonates, creatinine clearance, body mass index (BMI), concomitant osteoporosis medications. Results: Greater ZOL induced effects on vertebral fracture risk with younger age (treatment-by-subgroup interaction P=0.05), normal creatinine clearance (P=0.04), and BMI >/=25 kg/m(2) (P=0.02). There were no significant treatment-factor interactions for hip or non-vertebral fracture or for change in BMD. Conclusions: ZOL appeared more effective in preventing vertebral fracture in younger women, overweight/obese women and women with normal renal function. ZOL had similar effects irrespective of fracture risk factors or femoral neck BMD.

Expected and Unexpected Consequences of the Educational Expansion in Europe and the US. Theoretical approaches and empirical findings in comparative perspective

A main mechanism behind the change in European and North American societies in the second half of the 20th century is the educational expansion, i.e. the increase in educational opportunities and the higher demand for education. Whereas other abstract social processes like modernization have been widely theorized in social science literature, the educational expansion and its consequences in particular have not been well studied. Therefore the main aim of this compilation is to deal with the question of whether the demands of the educational reforms have been fulfilled and which other consequences the educational expansion has had. This book will focus on consequences of the educational expansion for individuals and their life courses as well as for the social structure and other societal areas such as culture and politics. Aspects that will be analysed in the light of educational expansion include participation in education, educational inequalities, labour market outcomes, educational returns, and gender differences as well as crime, life expectancy, and lifestyles. Countries analysed in the book include West European countries like Germany, France, Italy and Spain, East European countries (Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic) as well as the US.

Global change revealed by palaeolimnological records from remote lakes: a review

Over recent decades, palaeolimnological records from remote sites have provided convincing evidence for the onset and development of several facets of global environmental change. Remote lakes, defined here as those occurring in high latitude or high altitude regions, have the advantage of not being overprinted by local anthropogenic processes. As such, many of these sites record broad-scale environmental changes, frequently driven by regime shifts in the Earth system. Here, we review a selection of studies from North America and Europe and discuss their broader implications. The history of investigation has evolved synchronously with the scope and awareness of environmental problems. An initial focus on acid deposition switched to metal and other types of pollutants, then climate change and eventually to atmospheric deposition-fertilising effects. However, none of these topics is independent of the other, and all of them affect ecosystem function and biodiversity in profound ways. Currently, remote lake palaeolimnology is developing unique datasets for each region investigated that benchmark current trends with respect to past, purely natural variability in lake systems. Fostering conceptual and methodological bridges with other environmental disciplines will upturn contribution of remote lake palaeolimnology in solving existing and emerging questions in global change science and planetary stewardship.

Land use causes genetic differentiation of life-history traits in Bromus hordeaceus

There is increasing evidence that species can evolve rapidly in response to environmental change. However, although land use is one of the key drivers of current environmental change, studies of its evolutionary consequences are still fairly scarce, in particular studies that examine land-use effects across large numbers of populations, and discriminate between different aspects of land use. Here, we investigated genetic differentiation in relation to land use in the annual grass Bromus hordeaceus. A common garden study with offspring from 51 populations from three regions and a broad range of land-use types and intensities showed that there was indeed systematic population differentiation of ecologically important plant traits in relation to land use, in particular due to increasing mowing and grazing intensities. We also found strong land-use-related genetic differentiation in plant phenology, where the onset of flowering consistently shifted away from the typical time of management. In addition, increased grazing intensity significantly increased the genetic variability within populations. Our study suggests that land use can cause considerable genetic differentiation among plant populations, and that the timing of land use may select for phenological escape strategies, particularly in monocarpic plant species.

Holocene climatic change and the development of the lake-effect snowbelt in Michigan, USA

Lake-effect snow is an important constraint on ecological and socio-economic systems near the North American Great Lakes. Little is known about the Holocene history of lake-effect snowbelts, and it is difficult to decipher how lake-effect snowfall abundance affected ecosystem development. We conducted oxygen-isotope analysis of calcite in lake-sediment cores from northern Lower Michigan to infer Holocene climatic variation and assess snowbelt development. The two lakes experience the same synoptic-scale climatic systems, but only one of them (Huffman Lake) receives a significant amount of lake-effect snow. A 177-cm difference in annual snowfall causes groundwater inflow at Huffman Lake to be 18O-depleted by 2.3‰ relative to O'Brien Lake. To assess when the lake-effect snowbelt became established, we compared calcite-δ18O profiles of the last 11,500 years from these two sites. The chronologies are based on accelerator-mass-spectrometry 14C ages of 11 and 17 terrestrial-plant samples from Huffman and O'Brien lakes, respectively. The values of δ18O are low at both sites from 11,500 to 9500 cal yr BP when the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) exerted a dominant control over the regional climate and provided periodic pulses of meltwater to the Great Lakes basin. Carbonate δ18O increases by 2.6‰ at O'Brien Lake and by 1.4‰ at Huffman Lake between 9500 and 7000 cal yr BP, suggesting a regional decline in the proportion of runoff derived from winter precipitation. The Great Lakes snowbelt probably developed between 9500 and 5500 cal yr BP as inferred from the progressive 18O-depletion at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake, with the largest increase of lake-effect snow around 7000 cal yr BP. Lake-effect snow became possible at this time because of increasing contact between the Great Lakes and frigid arctic air. These changes resulted from enhanced westerly flow over the Great Lakes as the LIS collapsed, and from rapidly rising Great Lakes levels during the Nipissing Transgression. The δ18O difference between Huffman and O'Brien lakes declines after 5500 cal yr BP, probably because of a northward shift of the polar vortex that brought increasing winter precipitation to the entire region. However, δ18O remains depleted at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake because of the continued production of lake-effect snow.

Science for the Carpathians: Using Regional Capacity to Cope with Global Change

Emphasizing the global and regional importance of mountain ecosystem services and referring to the anticipated future environmental changes affecting the provision of these services, this chapter takes a closer look at the Carpathian Mountains. In addition to climate change and general effects of globalization, rapid socioeconomic transformations after the fall of the Iron Curtain pose an extra challenge to the sustainable development of the region. Describing the early efforts of organizing mountain science through programs such as UNESCO MAB and UNEP at the global scale, this chapter focuses on the recent history of research coordination for the European mountains, in particular on the activities of the Carpathian Convention and the European Program of the Mountain Research Initiative, which were among main driving factors for the initiation of the Science for the Carpathians (S4C) network. This regional mountain research network was established in 2008 to foster scientific collaboration and communication and to promote applied research and capacity building, which in turn would support sustainable development in the Carpathian Mountains. Forum Carpaticum, a biennial open science conference, has become a central activity of the S4C network counting more than 400 members today.