Strategies for evaluating the economic value of drugs in alcohol dependence treatment

To assess existing health economic strategies, which are used to evaluate the economic value of drugs to treat alcohol dependence (AD) such as acamprosate, naltrexone and any other pharmaceuticals.

Economic efficiency analysis of different strategies to control post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection in 3-weekly batch system farms.

The study assessed the economic efficiency of different strategies for the control of post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection (PCV2SI), which have a major economic impact on the pig farming industry worldwide. The control strategies investigated consisted on the combination of up to 5 different control measures. The control measures considered were: (1) PCV2 vaccination of piglets (vac); (2) ensuring age adjusted diet for growers (diets); (3) reduction of stocking density (stock); (4) improvement of biosecurity measures (bios); and (5) total depopulation and repopulation of the farm for the elimination of other major pathogens (DPRP). A model was developed to simulate 5 years production of a pig farm with a 3-weekly batch system and with 100 sows. A PMWS/PCV2SI disease and economic model, based on PMWS severity scores, was linked to the production model in order to assess disease losses. This PMWS severity scores depends on the combination post-weaning mortality, PMWS morbidity in younger pigs and proportion of PCV2 infected pigs observed on farms. The economic analysis investigated eleven different farm scenarios, depending on the number of risk factors present before the intervention. For each strategy, an investment appraisal assessed the extra costs and benefits of reducing a given PMWS severity score to the average score of a slightly affected farm. The net present value obtained for each strategy was then multiplied by the corresponding probability of success to obtain an expected value. A stochastic simulation was performed to account for uncertainty and variability. For moderately affected farms PCV2 vaccination alone was the most cost-efficient strategy, but for highly affected farms it was either PCV2 vaccination alone or in combination with biosecurity measures, with the marginal profitability between 'vac' and 'vac+bios' being small. Other strategies such as 'diets', 'vac+diets' and 'bios+diets' were frequently identified as the second or third best strategy. The mean expected values of the best strategy for a moderately and a highly affected farm were £14,739 and £57,648 after 5 years, respectively. This is the first study to compare economic efficiency of control strategies for PMWS and PCV2SI. The results demonstrate the economic value of PCV2 vaccination, and highlight that on highly affected farms biosecurity measures are required to achieve optimal profitability. The model developed has potential as a farm-level decision support tool for the control of this economically important syndrome.

Understanding the underlying mechanisms of recent Jatropha curcas L. adoption by smallholders in Kenya: A rural livelihood assessment in Bondo, Kibwezi, and Kwale districts

Between 2004 and 2007, NGOs, community based organisations and private investors promoted jatropha in Kenya with the aim of generating additional income and producing biofuel for rural development. By 2008 it became gradually evident that jatropha plantations (both mono- and intercropping) are uneconomical and risky due to competition for land and labour with food crops. Cultivation of jatropha hedges was found to have better chances of economic success and to present only little risks for the adopting farmers. Still, after 2008 a number of farmers went on adopting jatropha in plots rather than as hedges. It is hypothesised that lack of awareness about the low economic prospects of jatropha plantations was the main reason for continued adoption, and that smallholder farmers with higher resource endowments mainly ventured into its cultivation. In this study we provide an empirical basis for understanding the role of households' capital assets in taking up new livelihood strategies by smallholder farmers in three rural districts in Kenya. For that purpose, we assess the motivation and enabling factors that led to the adoption of jatropha as a new livelihood strategy, as well as the context in which promotion and adoption took place. A household survey was conducted in 2010, using a structured questionnaire, to collect information on household characteristics and capital asset endowment. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and non-parametric statistical tests. We established that access to additional income and own energy supply were the main motivation for adoption of jatropha, and that financial capital assets do not necessarily have a positive influence on adoption as hypothesised. Further, we found that the main challenges that adopting farmers faced were lack of access to information on good management practices and lack of a reliable market. We conclude that continued adoption of on-farm jatropha after 2008 is a result of lacking awareness about the low economic value of this production type. We recommend abandoning on-farm production of jatropha until improved seed material and locally adapted agronomic knowledge about jatropha cultivation becomes available and its production becomes economically competitive.

Legal Framework for Cross-Regional Networks: The Case of Services and Migration

Paper prepared by Marion Panizzon and Charlotte Sieber-Gasser for the International Conference on the Political Economy of Liberalising Trade in Services, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 14-15 June 2010 Recent literature has shed light on the economic potential of cross-border networks. These networks, consisting of expatriates and their acquaintances from abroad and at home, provide the basis for the creation of cross-border value added chains and therewith the means for turning brain drain into brain circulation. Both aspects are potentially valuable for economic growth in the developing world. Unilateral co-development policies operating through co-funding of expatriate business ventures, but also bilateral agreements liberalising circular migration for a limited set of per-sons testify to the increasing awareness of governments about the potential, which expatriate networks hold for economic growth in developing countries. Whereas such punctual efforts are valuable, viewed from a long term perspective, these top-down, government mandated Diaspora stimulation programs, will not replace, this paper argues, the market-driven liberalisation of infrastructure and other services in developing countries. Nor will they carry, in the case of circular labour migration, the political momentum to liberalise labour market admission for those non-nationals, who will eventually emerge as the future transnational entrepreneurs. It will take a combination of mode 4 and infrastructure services openings-cum regulation for countries at both sides of the spectrum to provide the basis and precondition for transnational business and entrepreneurial networks to emerge and translate into cross-border, value added production chains. Two key issues are of particular relevance in this context: (i) the services sector, especially in infrastructure, tends to suffer from inefficiencies, particularly in developing countries, and (ii) labour migration, a highly complex issue, still faces disproportionately rigid barriers despite well-documented global welfare gains. Both are hindrances for emerging markets to fully take advantage of the potential of these cross-border networks. Adapting the legal framework for enhancing the regulatory and institutional frameworks for services trade, especially in infrastructure services sectors (ISS) and labour migration could provide the incentives necessary for brain circulation and strengthen cross-border value added chains by lowering transaction costs. This paper analyses the shortfalls of the global legal framework – the shallow status quo of GATS commitments in ISS and mode 4 particular – in relation to stimulating brain circulation and the creation of cross-border value added chains in emerging markets. It highlights the necessity of adapting the legal framework, both on the global and the regional level, to stimulate broader and wider market access in the four key ISS sectors (telecommunications, transport, professional and financial services) in developing countries, as domestic supply capacity, global competitiveness and economic diversification in ISS sectors are necessary for mobilising expatriate re-turns, both physical and virtual. The paper argues that industrialised, labour receiving countries need to offer mode 4 market access to wider categories of persons, especially to students, graduate trainees and young professionals from abroad. Further-more, free trade in semi-finished products and mode 4 market access are crucial for the creation of cross-border value added chains across the developing world. Finally, the paper discusses on the basis of a case study on Jordan why the key features of trade agreements, which promote circular migration and the creation of cross-border value added chains, consist of trade liberalisation in services and liberal migration policies.

Carbapenems: past, present, and future

In this review, we summarize the current "state of the art" of carbapenem antibiotics and their role in our antimicrobial armamentarium. Among the β-lactams currently available, carbapenems are unique because they are relatively resistant to hydrolysis by most β-lactamases, in some cases act as "slow substrates" or inhibitors of β-lactamases, and still target penicillin binding proteins. This "value-added feature" of inhibiting β-lactamases serves as a major rationale for expansion of this class of β-lactams. We describe the initial discovery and development of the carbapenem family of β-lactams. Of the early carbapenems evaluated, thienamycin demonstrated the greatest antimicrobial activity and became the parent compound for all subsequent carbapenems. To date, more than 80 compounds with mostly improved antimicrobial properties, compared to those of thienamycin, are described in the literature. We also highlight important features of the carbapenems that are presently in clinical use: imipenem-cilastatin, meropenem, ertapenem, doripenem, panipenem-betamipron, and biapenem. In closing, we emphasize some major challenges and urge the medicinal chemist to continue development of these versatile and potent compounds, as they have served us well for more than 3 decades.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenetic testing to predict treatment response to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of testing patients with nephropathies for the I/D polymorphism before starting angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor therapy, using a 3-year time horizon and a healthcare perspective. METHODS: We used a combination of a decision analysis and Markov modeling technique to evaluate the potential economic value of this pharmacogenetic test by preventing unfavorable treatment in patients with nephropathies. The estimation of the predictive value of the I/D polymorphism is based on a systematic review showing that DD carriers tend to respond well to ACE inhibitors, while II carriers seem not to benefit adequately from this treatment. Data on the ACE inhibitor effectiveness in nephropathy were derived from the REIN (Ramipril Efficacy in Nephropathy) trial. We calculated the number of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) prevented and the differences in the incremental costs and incremental effect expressed as life-years free of ESRD. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the robustness of the results. RESULTS: Compared with unselective treatment, testing patients for their ACE genotype could save 12 patients per 1000 from developing ESRD during the 3 years covered by the model. As the mean net cost savings was euro 356,000 per 1000 patient-years, and 9 life-years free of ESRD were gained, selective treatment seems to be dominant. CONCLUSION: The study suggests that genetic testing of the I/D polymorphism in patients with nephropathy before initiating ACE therapy will most likely be cost-effective, even if the risk for II carriers to develop ESRD when treated with ACE inhibitors is only 1.4% higher than for DD carriers. Further studies, however, are required to corroborate the difference in treatment response between ACE genotypes, before genetic testing can be justified in clinical practice.

The end of the corporate life cycle

This paper asks how takeover and failure hazards change as listed firms get older. The hypothesis is that they increase because firms gradually run out of growth opportunities. We find the opposite. Both takeover and failure hazard drop significantly with age. The decline in takeover hazard can be explained with Loderer, Stulz, and Waelchli’s (2013) “buggy whip makers” hypothesis: Because old firms are comparatively well-managed and are affected by limited agency problems, on average, they offer little value added potential to acquirers. Failure hazard drops because to learning. The results are robust to various alternative interpretations and cannot be explained by unobserved heterogeneity. While hazards decline with age, they do not go to zero. This explains why, eventually, all listed firms disappear

The end of the corporate life cycle

This paper asks how takeover and failure hazards change as listed firms get older. The hypothesis is that they increase because firms gradually run out of growth opportunities. We find the opposite. Both takeover and failure hazard drop significantly with age. The decline in takeover hazard can be explained with Loderer, Stulz, and Waelchli’s (2013) “buggy whip makers” hypothesis: Because old firms are comparatively well-managed and are affected by limited agency problems, on average, they offer little value added potential to acquirers. Failure hazard drops because to learning. The results are robust to various alternative interpretations and cannot be explained by unobserved heterogeneity. While hazards decline with age, they do not go to zero. This explains why, eventually, all listed firms disappear

The end of the corporate life cycle

This paper asks how takeover and failure hazards change as listed firms get older. The hypothesis is that they increase because firms gradually run out of growth opportunities. We find the opposite. Both takeover and failure hazard drop significantly with age. The decline in takeover hazard can be explained with Loderer, Stulz, and Waelchli’s (2013) “buggy whip makers” hypothesis: Because old firms are comparatively well-managed and are affected by limited agency problems, on average, they offer little value added potential to acquirers. Failure hazard drops because to learning. The results are robust to various alternative interpretations and cannot be explained by unobserved heterogeneity. While hazards decline with age, they do not go to zero. This explains why, eventually, all listed firms disappear

Why do individuals behave differently in commons dilemmas?: The case of alpine farmers using common property pastures in Grindelwald, Switzerland

The sustainable use of common-pool resources depends on users’ behaviour with regards to appropriation and provision. Most knowledge about behaviour in such situations comes from experimental research. As experiments take place in confined environments, motivational drivers and actions in the field might differ. This paper analyses farmers’ use of common property pastures in Grindelwald, Switzerland. Binary logistic regression is applied to survey data to explore the effect of farmers’ attributes on livestock endowment, appropriation and provision behaviour. Furthermore, Q methodology is used to assess the impact of broader contextual variables on the sustainability of common property pastures. It is shown that the strongest associations exist between (a) socio-economic attributes and change in livestock endowment; (b) norms and appropriation behaviour; and (c) area and pay-off and provision behaviour. Relevant contextual variables are the economic value of the resource units, off-farm income opportunities, and the subsidy structure. We conclude that with increasing farm size farmers reduce the use and maintenance of common property. Additionally, we postulate that readiness to maintain a resource increases with appropriation activities and the net returns generated from appropriation.

Services growth and convergence: Getting India’s states together

India’s success story in services is well documented at the national level, but similar literature does not exist for India’s states. In this paper, we bridge this gap in research by looking at India’s services growth at the sub-national level and in doing so, also challenge existing literature by arguing that this growth has positive implications for income distribution. The first interesting finding is that even as per capita income is not converging across India’s states, per capita services are and we provide evidence for this both in terms of traditional measures of sigma- and beta-convergence and more recent panel unit root tests. Secondly, not only is external demand an important determinant of services value added at the state level, but this demand also emanates from all over the country rather than being concentrated in the neighbouring or richer states. This suggests that the benefits from services growth are being distributed more widely than may be perceived.

Sino-African State Trading in Services: Added-Value through Angola-Model loaning, GATS commitments or FTAs?

Paper presented by Charlotte Sieber-Gasser at the 5th Annual TRAPCA Conference, Arusha (Tanzania), 25-26 November 2010. Despite the increasing volume of trade between China and African countries, not one single conventional free trade agreement (FTA) or economic partnership agreement (EPA) has yet been signed between an African country and China. Initially, Sino-African trade relations were to a very large extent centred on investments secured through bilateral investment agreements (BITs). The more recent Chinese investments on the African continent, however, are more informally based on FDI contracts with the state at the receiving end and a government-owned private company as the investor, or loosely attached to loans commonly known under term ‘the Angola-Model’. This rather unusual basis for economic integration and development assistance, outside the trodden path of free trade agreements and ODA, requires further analysis in order to understand how the current legal framework between China and the African continent impacts economic development and national sovereignty, and what kind of distributive consequences it may have.