Mid- to late Holocene Indian Ocean Monsoon variability recorded in four speleothems from Socotra Island, Yemen

Four stalagmites covering the last 7.0 ka were sampled on Socotra, an island in the northern Indian Ocean to investigate the evolution of the northeast Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) since the mid Holocene. On Socotra, rain is delivered at the start of the southwest IOM in May–June and at the start of the northeast IOM from September to December. The Haggeher Mountains act as a barrier forcing precipitation brought by the northeast winds to fall preferentially on the eastern side of the island, where the studied caves are located. δ18O and δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca signals in the stalagmites reflect precipitation amounts brought by the northeast winds. For stalagmite STM6, this amount effect is amplified by kinetic effects during calcite deposition. Combined interpretation of the stalagmites' signals suggest a weakening of the northeast precipitation between 6.0 and 3.8 ka. After 3.8 ka precipitation intensities remain constant with two superimposed drier periods, between 0 and 0.6 ka and from 2.2 to 3.8 ka. No link can be established with Greenland ice cores and with the summer IOM variability. In contrast to the stable northeast rainy season suggested by the records in this study, speleothem records from western Socotra indicate a wettening of the southwest rainy season on Socotra after 4.4 ka. The local wettening of western Socotra could relate to a more southerly path (more over the Indian Ocean) taken by the southwest winds. Stalagmite STM5, sampled at the fringe between both rain areas displays intermediate δ18O values. After 6.2 ka, similar precipitation changes are seen between eastern Socotra and northern Oman indicating that both regions are affected similarly by the monsoon. Different palaeoclimatologic records from the Arabian Peninsula currently located outside the ITCZ migration pathway display an abrupt drying around 6 ka due to their disconnection from the southwest rain influence. Records that are nowadays still receiving rain by the southwest winds, suggest a more gradual drying reflecting the weakening of the southwest monsoon.

Topoclimatological case-study of Alpine pastures near the Albula Pass in the eastern Swiss Alps

Alpine grasslands are an important source of fodder for the cattle of Alpine farmers. Only during the short summer season can these pastures be used for grazing. With the anticipated climate change, it is likely that plant production – and thus the fodder basis for the cattle – will be influenced. Investigating the dependence of biomass production on topoclimatic factors will allow us to better understand how anticipated climate change may influence this traditional Alpine farming system. Because small-scale topoclimatological variations of the main meteorological variables: temperature, humidity, precipitation, shortwave incoming radiation and wind speed are not easily derived from available long-term climate stations in mountainous terrain, it was our goal to investigate the topoclimatic variations over the pastures belonging to the Alp Weissenstein research station north of the Albula Pass in the eastern Swiss Alps. We present a basic assessment of current topoclimatic conditions as a site characterization for ongoing ecological climate change studies. To be able to link short-term studies with long-term climate records, we related agrometeorological measurements with those of surrounding long-term sites run by MeteoSwiss, both on valley bottoms (Davos, Samedan), and on mountain tops (Weissfluhjoch, Piz Corvatsch). We found that the Davos climate station north of the study area is most closely correlated with the local climate of Alp Weissenstein, although a much closer site (Samedan) exists on the other side of the Albula Pass. Mountain top stations, however, did not provide a convincing approximation for the climate at Alp Weissenstein. Direct comparisons of near-surface measurements from a set of 11 small weather stations distributed over the domain where cattle and sheep are grazed indicate that nocturnal minimum air temperature and minimum vapor pressure deficit are mostly governed by the altitudinal gradient, whereas daily maxima – including also wind speed – are more strongly depending on vegetation cover and less on the altitude.

The Role of Corruption in Explaining the Electoral Success of New Political Parties in Central and Eastern Europe

More than 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the electoral volatility in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is still remarkably high. A considerable part of the volatility derives from the votes for new political parties, since they are very often on the winning side of elections. This paper examines corruption as potential determinant of their electoral success. It argues that the effect of corruption is twofold: On the onehand, the historically-grown corruption level reduces the electoral success of new political parties due to strong clientelist structures that bind the electorate to the established parties. On the other hand, an increase of the perceived corruption above the traditional corruption level leads to a loss of trust in the political elite and therefore boosts the electoral success of new competitors. A statistical analysis of all democratic elections in CEE between 1996 and 2011 confirms these two counteracting effects.

Corruption and the Electoral Support of New Political Parties in Central and Eastern Europe

More than 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the electoral volatility in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is still remarkably high. A considerable part of the volatility derives from the votes for new political parties, since they are very often on the winning side of elections. This article examines corruption as a potential determinant of their electoral support. It argues that the effect of corruption is twofold: on the one hand, the historically derived corruption level reduces the electoral support for new political parties due to strong clientelist structures that bind the electorate to the established parties. On the other hand, an increase in perceived corruption above the traditional corruption level leads to a loss of trust in the political elite and therefore boosts the electoral support for new competitors. A statistical analysis of all democratic elections in CEE between 1996 and 2013 confirms these two counteracting effects.