79 resultados para Earth body tide model

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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PURPOSE Leakage is the most common complication of percutaneous cement augmentation of the spine. The viscosity of the polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) cement is strongly correlated with the likelihood of cement leakage. We hypothesized that cement leakage can be reduced by sequential cement injection in a vertebroplasty model. METHODS A standardized vertebral body substitute model, consisting of aluminum oxide foams coated by acrylic cement with a preformed leakage path, simulating a ventral vein, was developed. Three injection techniques of 6 ml PMMA were assessed: injection in one single step (all-in-one), injection of 1 ml at the first and 5 ml at the second step with 1 min latency in-between (two-step), and sequential injection of 0.5 ml with 1-min latency between the sequences (sequential). Standard PMMA vertebroplasty cement was used; each injection type was tested on ten vertebral body substitute models with two possible leakage paths per model. Leakage was assessed by radiographs using a zonal graduation: intraspongious = no leakage and extracortical = leakage. RESULTS The leakage rate was significantly lower in the "sequential" technique (2/20 leakages) followed by "two-step" (15/20) and "all-in-one" (20/20) techniques (p < 0.001). The RR for a cement leakage was 10.0 times higher in the "all-in-one" compared to the "sequential" group (95 % confidence intervals 2.7-37.2; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS The sequential cement injection is a simple approach to minimize the risk for leakage. Taking advantage of the temperature gradient between body and room temperature, it is possible to increase the cement viscosity inside the vertebra while keeping it low in the syringe. Using sequential injection of small cement volumes, further leakage paths are blocked before further injection of the low-viscosity cement.

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During the past 20 years or so, more has become known about the properties of khat, its pharmacology, physiological and psychological effects on humans. However, at the same time its reputation of social and recreational use in traditional contexts has hindered the dissemination of knowledge about its detrimental effects in terms of mortality. This paper focuses on this particular deficit and adds to the knowledge-base by reviewing the scant literature that does exist on mortality associated with the trade and use of khat. We sought all peer-reviewed papers relating to deaths associated with khat. From an initial list of 111, we identified 15 items meeting our selection criteria. Examination of these revealed 61 further relevant items. These were supplemented with published reports, newspaper and other media reports. A conceptual framework was then developed for classifying mortality associated with each stage of the plant's journey from its cultivation, transportation, consumption, to its effects on the human body. The model is demonstrated with concrete examples drawn from the above sources. These highlight a number of issues for which more substantive statistical data are needed, including population-based studies of the physiological and psychological determinants of khat-related fatalities. Khat-consuming communities, and health professionals charged with their care should be more aware of the physiological and psychological effects of khat, together with the risks for morbidity and mortality associated with its use. There is also a need for information to be collected at international and national levels on other causes of death associated with khat cultivation, transportation, and trade. Both these dimensions need to be understood.

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Mass spectrometry-based metabolomics has previously demonstrated utility for identifying biomarkers of ionizing radiation exposure in cellular, mouse and rat in vivo radiation models. To provide a valuable link from small laboratory rodents to humans, γ-radiation-induced urinary biomarkers were investigated using a nonhuman primate total-body-irradiation model. Mass spectrometry-based metabolomics approaches were applied to determine whether biomarkers could be identified, as well as the previously discovered rodent biomarkers of γ radiation. Ultra-performance liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry analysis was carried out on a time course of clean-catch urine samples collected from nonhuman primates (n = 6 per cohort) exposed to sham, 1.0, 3.5, 6.5 or 8.5 Gy doses of (60)Co γ ray (∼0.55 Gy/min) ionizing radiation. By multivariate data analysis, 13 biomarkers of radiation were discovered: N-acetyltaurine, isethionic acid, taurine, xanthine, hypoxanthine, uric acid, creatine, creatinine, tyrosol sulfate, 3-hydroxytyrosol sulfate, tyramine sulfate, N-acetylserotonin sulfate, and adipic acid. N-Acetyltaurine, isethionic acid, and taurine had previously been identified in rats, and taurine and xanthine in mice after ionizing radiation exposure. Mass spectrometry-based metabolomics has thus successfully revealed and verified urinary biomarkers of ionizing radiation exposure in the nonhuman primate for the first time, which indicates possible mechanisms for ionizing radiation injury.

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Quantitative computer tomography (QCT)-based finite element (FE) models of vertebral body provide better prediction of vertebral strength than dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. However, most models were validated against compression of vertebral bodies with endplates embedded in polymethylmethalcrylate (PMMA). Yet, loading being as important as bone density, the absence of intervertebral disc (IVD) affects the strength. Accordingly, the aim was to assess the strength predictions of the classic FE models (vertebral body embedded) against the in vitro and in silico strengths of vertebral bodies loaded via IVDs. High resolution peripheral QCT (HR-pQCT) were performed on 13 segments (T11/T12/L1). T11 and L1 were augmented with PMMA and the samples were tested under a 4° wedge compression until failure of T12. Specimen-specific model was generated for each T12 from the HR-pQCT data. Two FE sets were created: FE-PMMA refers to the classical vertebral body embedded model under axial compression; FE-IVD to their loading via hyperelastic IVD model under the wedge compression as conducted experimentally. Results showed that FE-PMMA models overestimated the experimental strength and their strength prediction was satisfactory considering the different experimental set-up. On the other hand, the FE-IVD models did not prove significantly better (Exp/FE-PMMA: R²=0.68; Exp/FE-IVD: R²=0.71, p=0.84). In conclusion, FE-PMMA correlates well with in vitro strength of human vertebral bodies loaded via real IVDs and FE-IVD with hyperelastic IVDs do not significantly improve this correlation. Therefore, it seems not worth adding the IVDs to vertebral body models until fully validated patient-specific IVD models become available.

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Major volcanic eruptions generate widespread ocean cooling, which reduces upper ocean stratification. This effect has the potential to increase nutrient delivery into the euphotic zone and boost biological productivity. Using externally forced last millennium simulations of three climate/Earth System models (Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC), Community Earth System Model (CESM), and LOch-Vecode-Ecbilt-CLio-agIsm Model (LOVECLIM)), we test the hypothesis that large volcanic eruptions intensify nutrient-driven export production. It is found that strong volcanic radiative forcing enhances the likelihood of eastern Pacific El Niño-like warming in CESM and LOVECLIM. This leads to an initial reduction of nutrients and export production in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, this initial response reverses after about 3 years in association with La Niña cooling. The resulting delayed enhancement of biological production resembles the multiyear response in MIROC. The model simulations show that volcanic impacts on tropical Pacific dynamics and biogeochemistry persist for several years, thus providing a new source for potential multiyear ecosystem predictability.

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Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

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Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

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Background: Body mass index (BMI) is a risk factor for endometrial cancer. We quantified the risk and investigated whether the association differed by use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT), menopausal status, and histologic type. Methods: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (1966 to December 2009) to identify prospective studies of BMI and incident endometrial cancer. We did random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regressions, and generalized least square regressions for trend estimations assuming linear, and piecewise linear, relationships. Results: Twenty-four studies (17,710 cases) were analyzed; 9 studies contributed to analyses by HRT, menopausal status, or histologic type, all published since 2003. In the linear model, the overall risk ratio (RR) per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was 1.60 (95% CI, 1.52–1.68), P < 0.0001. In the piecewise model, RRs compared with a normal BMI were 1.22 (1.19–1.24), 2.09 (1.94–2.26), 4.36 (3.75–5.10), and 9.11 (7.26–11.51) for BMIs of 27, 32, 37, and 42 kg/m2, respectively. The association was stronger in never HRT users than in ever users: RRs were 1.90 (1.57–2.31) and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.06–1.31) with P for interaction ¼ 0.003. In the piecewise model, the RR in never users was 20.70 (8.28–51.84) at BMI 42 kg/m2, compared with never users at normal BMI. The association was not affected by menopausal status (P ¼ 0.34) or histologic type (P ¼ 0.26). Conclusions: HRT use modifies the BMI-endometrial cancer risk association. Impact: These findings support the hypothesis that hyperestrogenia is an important mechanism underlying the BMI-endometrial cancer association, whilst the presence of residual risk in HRT users points to the role of additional systems. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(12); 3119–30.

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George Gaylord Simpson famously postulated that much of life's diversity originated as adaptive radiations-more or less simultaneous divergences of numerous lines from a single ancestral adaptive type. However, identifying adaptive radiations has proven difficult due to a lack of broad-scale comparative datasets. Here, we use phylogenetic comparative data on body size and shape in a diversity of animal clades to test a key model of adaptive radiation, in which initially rapid morphological evolution is followed by relative stasis. We compared the fit of this model to both single selective peak and random walk models. We found little support for the early-burst model of adaptive radiation, whereas both other models, particularly that of selective peaks, were commonly supported. In addition, we found that the net rate of morphological evolution varied inversely with clade age. The youngest clades appear to evolve most rapidly because long-term change typically does not attain the amount of divergence predicted from rates measured over short time scales. Across our entire analysis, the dominant pattern was one of constraints shaping evolution continually through time rather than rapid evolution followed by stasis. We suggest that the classical model of adaptive radiation, where morphological evolution is initially rapid and slows through time, may be rare in comparative data.