Past forest composition, structures and processes – How paleoecology can contribute to forest conservation

The importance of long-term historical information derived from paleoecological studies has long been recognized as a fundamental aspect of effective conservation. However, there remains some uncertainty regarding the extent to which paleoecology can inform on specific issues of high conservation priority, at the scale for which conservation policy decisions often take place. Here we review to what extent the past occurrence of three fundamental aspects of forest conservation can be assessed using paleoecological data, with a focus on northern Europe. These aspects are (1) tree species composition, (2) old/large trees and coarse woody debris, and (3) natural disturbances. We begin by evaluating the types of relevant historical information available from contemporary forests, then evaluate common paleoecological techniques, namely dendrochronology, pollen, macrofossil, charcoal, and fossil insect and wood analyses. We conclude that whereas contemporary forests can be used to estimate historical, natural occurrences of several of the aspects addressed here (e.g. old/large trees), paleoecological techniques are capable of providing much greater temporal depth, as well as robust quantitative data for tree species composition and fire disturbance, qualitative insights regarding old/large trees and woody debris, but limited indications of past windstorms and insect outbreaks. We also find that studies of fossil wood and paleoentomology are perhaps the most underutilized sources of information. Not only can paleoentomology provide species specific information, but it also enables the reconstruction of former environmental conditions otherwise unavailable. Despite the potential, the majority of conservation-relevant paleoecological studies primarily focus on describing historical forest conditions in broad terms and for large spatial scales, addressing former climate, land-use, and landscape developments, often in the absence of a specific conservation context. In contrast, relatively few studies address the most pressing conservation issues in northern Europe, often requiring data on the presence or quantities of dead wood, large trees or specific tree species, at the scale of the stand or reserve. Furthermore, even fewer examples exist of detailed paleoecological data being used for conservation planning, or the setting of operative restorative baseline conditions at local scales. If ecologist and conservation biologists are going to benefit to the full extent possible from the ever-advancing techniques developed by the paleoecological sciences, further integration of these disciplines is desirable.

Changing correlation structures of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation from 1000 to 2100 AD

Atmospheric circulation modes are important concepts in understanding the variability of atmospheric dynamics. Assuming their spatial patterns to be fixed, such modes are often described by simple indices from rather short observational data sets. The increasing length of reanalysis products allows these concepts and assumptions to be scrutinised. Here we investigate the stability of spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere teleconnections by using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis as well as several control and transient millennium-scale simulations with coupled models. The observed and simulated centre of action of the two major teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and to some extent the Pacific North American (PNA), are not stable in time. The currently observed dipole pattern of the NAO, its centre of action over Iceland and the Azores, split into a north–south dipole pattern in the western Atlantic with a wave train pattern in the eastern part, connecting the British Isles with West Greenland and the eastern Mediterranean during the period 1940–1969 AD. The PNA centres of action over Canada are shifted southwards and over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1915–1944 AD. The analysis further shows that shifts in the centres of action of either teleconnection pattern are not related to changes in the external forcing applied in transient simulations of the last millennium. Such shifts in their centres of action are accompanied by changes in the relation of local precipitation and temperature with the overlying atmospheric mode. These findings further undermine the assumption of stationarity between local climate/proxy variability and large-scale dynamics inherent when using proxy-based reconstructions of atmospheric modes, and call for a more robust understanding of atmospheric variability on decadal timescales.

Dilution of non-reactive tracers in variably saturated sandy structures

Based on a dye tracer experiment in a sand tank we addressed the problem of local dispersion of conservative tracers in the unsaturated zone. The sand bedding was designed to have a defined spatial heterogeneity with a strong anisotropy. We estimated the parameters that characterize the local dispersion and dilution from concentration maps of a high spatial and temporal resolution obtained by image analysis. The plume spreading and mixing behavior was quantified on the basis of the coefficient of variation of the concentration and of the dilution index. The heterogeneous structure modified the flow pattern depending on water saturation. The shape of the tracer plumes revealed the structural signature of the sand bedding at low saturation only. In this case pronounced preferential flow was observed. At higher flow rates the structure remained hidden by a spatially almost homogeneous behavior of the plumes. In this context, we mainly discuss the mechanism of re-distributing a finite mass of inert solutes over a large volume, due to macro- and micro-heterogeneities of the structure. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. AU rights reserved.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Structural, metamorphic and geochronological relations between the Zanskar Shear Zone and the Miyar Shear Zone (NW Indian Himalaya): Evidence for two distinct tectonic structures and implications for the evolution of the High Himalayan Crystalline of Zanskar

The geologic structures and metamorphic zonation of the northwestern Indian Himalaya contrast significantly with those in the central and eastern parts of the range, where the high-grade metamorphic rocks of the High Himalayan Crystalline (HHC) thrust southward over the weakly metamorphosed sediments of the Lesser Himalaya along the Main Central Thrust (MCT). Indeed, the hanging wall of the MCT in the NW Himalaya mainly consists of the greenschist facies metasediments of the Chamba zone, whereas HHC high-grade rocks are exposed more internally in the range as a large-scale dome called the Gianbul dome. This Gianbul dome is bounded by two oppositely directed shear zones, the NE-dipping Zanskar Shear Zone (ZSZ) on the northern flank and the SW-dipping Miyar Shear Zone (MSZ) on the southern limb. Current models for the emplacement of the HHC in NW India as a dome structure differ mainly in terms of the roles played by both the ZSZ and the MSZ during the tectonothermal evolution of the HHC. In both the channel flow model and wedge extrusion model, the ZSZ acts as a backstop normal fault along which the high-grade metamorphic rocks of the HHC of Zanskar are exhumed. In contrast, the recently proposed tectonic wedging model argues that the ZSZ and the MSZ correspond to one single detachment system that operates as a subhorizontal backthrust off of the MCT. Thus, the kinematic evolution of the two shear zones, the ZSZ and the MSZ, and their structural, metamorphic and chronological relations appear to be diagnostic features for discriminating the different models. In this paper, structural, metamorphic and geochronological data demonstrate that the MSZ and the ZSZ experienced two distinct kinematic evolutions. As such, the data presented in this paper rule out the hypothesis that the MSZ and the ZSZ constitute one single detachment system, as postulated by the tectonic wedging model. Structural, metamorphic and geochronological data are used to present an alternative tectonic model for the large-scale doming in the NW Indian Himalaya involving early NE-directed tectonics, weakness in the upper crust, reduced erosion at the orogenic front and rapid exhumation along both the ZSZ and the MSZ.

An automated method for mapping physical soil and water conservation structures on cultivated land using GIS and remote sensing techniques

An efficient and reliable automated model that can map physical Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) structures on cultivated land was developed using very high spatial resolution imagery obtained from Google Earth and ArcGIS, ERDAS IMAGINE, and SDC Morphology Toolbox for MATLAB and statistical techniques. The model was developed using the following procedures: (1) a high-pass spatial filter algorithm was applied to detect linear features, (2) morphological processing was used to remove unwanted linear features, (3) the raster format was vectorized, (4) the vectorized linear features were split per hectare (ha) and each line was then classified according to its compass direction, and (5) the sum of all vector lengths per class of direction per ha was calculated. Finally, the direction class with the greatest length was selected from each ha to predict the physical SWC structures. The model was calibrated and validated on the Ethiopian Highlands. The model correctly mapped 80% of the existing structures. The developed model was then tested at different sites with different topography. The results show that the developed model is feasible for automated mapping of physical SWC structures. Therefore, the model is useful for predicting and mapping physical SWC structures areas across diverse areas.