Observation errors in early historical upper-air observations

Upper-air observations are a fundamental data source for global atmospheric data products, but uncertainties, particularly in the early years, are not well known. Most of the early observations, which have now been digitized, are prone to a large variety of undocumented uncertainties (errors) that need to be quantified, e.g., for their assimilation in reanalysis projects. We apply a novel approach to estimate errors in upper-air temperature, geopotential height, and wind observations from the Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network for the time period from 1923 to 1966. We distinguish between random errors, biases, and a term that quantifies the representativity of the observations. The method is based on a comparison of neighboring observations and is hence independent of metadata, making it applicable to a wide scope of observational data sets. The estimated mean random errors for all observations within the study period are 1.5 K for air temperature, 1.3 hPa for pressure, 3.0 ms−1for wind speed, and 21.4° for wind direction. The estimates are compared to results of previous studies and analyzed with respect to their spatial and temporal variability.

Early detection of psychosis: helpful or stigmatizing experience? A qualitative study

AIM Despite the large scientific debate concerning potential stigmatizing effects of identifying an individual as being in an at-risk mental state (ARMS) for psychosis, studies investigating this topic from the subjective perspective of patients are rare. This study assesses whether ARMS individuals experience stigmatization and to what extent being informed about the ARMS is experienced as helpful or harmful. METHODS Eleven ARMS individuals, currently participating in the follow-up assessments of the prospective Basel Früherkennung von Psychosen (FePsy; English: Early Detection of Psychosis) study, were interviewed in detail using a semistructured qualitative interview developed for this purpose. Data were analysed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. RESULTS Most individuals experiencing first symptoms reported sensing that there was 'something wrong with them' and felt in need of help. They were relieved that a specific term was assigned to their symptoms. The support received from the early detection centre was generally experienced as helpful. Many patients reported stigmatization and discrimination that appeared to be the result of altered behaviour and social withdrawal due to the prepsychotic symptoms they experienced prior to contact with the early detection clinic. CONCLUSIONS The results suggest that early detection services help individuals cope with symptoms and potential stigmatization rather than enhancing or causing the latter. More emphasis should be put on the subjective experiences of those concerned when debating the advantages and disadvantages of early detection with regard to stigma. There was no evidence for increased perceived stigma and discrimination as a result of receiving information about the ARMS.

Long-term effects of watershed management on surface runoff and sediment loss in the Ethiopian Highlands

Data on rainfall, runoff and sediment loss from different land use types have been collected by the Soil Conservation Research Programme in seven small catchments (73-673 hectares) throughout the Ethiopian Highlands since the early 1980s. Monitoring was carried out on a storm-to-storm basis for extended periods of 10-20 years, and the data are analysed here to assess long-term effects of changes. Soil and water conservation technologies were introduced in the early years in the catchments in view of their capacity to reduce runoff and sediment yield. Results indicate that rainfall did not substantially change over the observation periods. Land use changes and land degradation, however, altered runoff, as shown by the data from small test plots (30 m2), which were not altered by conservation measures during the monitoring periods. Sediment delivery from the catchments may have decreased due to soil and water conservation, while runoff rates did not change significantly. Extrapolation of the results in the highlands, however, showed that expansion of cultivated and grazing land induced by population growth may have increased the overall surface runoff. Watershed management in the catchments, finally, had beneficial effects on ecosystem services by reducing soil erosion, restoring soil fertility, enhancing agricultural production, and maintaining overall runoff to the benefit of lowland areas and neighbouring countries.

A review on continuous wave functional near-infrared spectroscopy and imaging instrumentation and methodology

This year marks the 20th anniversary of functional near-infrared spectroscopy and imaging (fNIRS/fNIRI). As the vast majority of commercial instruments developed until now are based on continuous wave technology, the aim of this publication is to review the current state of instrumentation and methodology of continuous wave fNIRI. For this purpose we provide an overview of the commercially available instruments and address instrumental aspects such as light sources, detectors and sensor arrangements. Methodological aspects, algorithms to calculate the concentrations of oxy- and deoxyhemoglobin and approaches for data analysis are also reviewed. From the single-location measurements of the early years, instrumentation has progressed to imaging initially in two dimensions (topography) and then three (tomography). The methods of analysis have also changed tremendously, from the simple modified Beer-Lambert law to sophisticated image reconstruction and data analysis methods used today. Due to these advances, fNIRI has become a modality that is widely used in neuroscience research and several manufacturers provide commercial instrumentation. It seems likely that fNIRI will become a clinical tool in the foreseeable future, which will enable diagnosis in single subjects.

From Personal Network to Institution Building: The Lifanyuan and the Formalization of Manchu-Mongol Relations

The Qing emperors, who ruled over China from 1644-1911, managed to bring large parts of Inner Asia under their control and extended the territory of China to an unprecedented degree. This paper maintains that the political technique of patronage with its formalized language, its emphasis on gift exchange and expressions of courtesy is a useful concept for explaining the integration of Inner Asian confederations into the empire. By re-interpreting the obligations of gift exchange, the Qing transformed the network of personal relationships, which had to be reinforced and consolidated permanently into a system with clearly defined rules. In this process of formalization, the Lifanyuan, the Court for the Administration of the Outer Regions, played a key role. While in the early years of the dynasty, it was responsible for collecting and disseminating information concerning the various patronage relationships with Inner Asian leaders, over the course of the 17th and 18th centuries its efforts were directed at standardizing and streamlining the contacts between ethnic minorities and the state. Through the Lifanyuan, the rules and principles of patronage were maintained in a modified form even in the later part of the dynasty, when the Qing exercised control in the outer regions more directly. The paper provides an explanation for the longevity and cohesiveness of the multi-ethnic Qing empire. Based on recently published Manchu and Mongolian language archival material and the Maussian concept of gift exchange the study sheds new light on the changing self-conception of the Qing emperors.

European perspective on sport psychology

This chapter describes the development of sport psychology in Europe. Starting from the early years at the beginning of the 20th century, the contribution of European sport psychology in different cultural traditions to the development of this discipline is highlighted. The foundation of FEPSAC, the European Federation of Sport Psychology, and its role in this development are emphasised. During the first 20 years, Europe was a divided continent and the challenges were to establish a common understanding and possibilities for scientific exchange. After the fall of the Berlin wall and the change of the political landscape in Europe, central aims were to foster scientific exchange despite language difficulties, to develop a common understanding, to help young sport psychologists and to establish sport psychology as a professional field. In the new century, one group of challenges identified refers to unification, for example in education and training, in the services delivery, and in the structure. The second group of challenges relates to diversification, be it in the educational and vocational pathways, the different sports and physical activities, the inclusion of persons with special needs or background, or the publications.

A two-centre study on facial morphology in patients with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate at nine years of age

The aim of this study was to compare craniofacial morphology and soft tissue profiles in patients with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate at 9 years of age, treated in two European cleft centres with delayed hard palate closure but different treatment protocols. The cephalometric data of 83 consecutively treated patients were compared (Gothenburg, N=44; Nijmegen, N=39). In total, 18 hard tissue and 10 soft tissue landmarks were digitized by one operator. To determine the intra-observer reliability 20 cephalograms were digitized twice with a monthly interval. Paired t-test, Pearson correlation coefficients and multiple regression models were applied for statistical analysis. Hard and soft tissue data were superimposed using the Generalized Procrustes Analysis. In Nijmegen, the maxilla was protrusive for hard and soft tissue values (P=0.001, P=0.030, respectively) and the maxillary incisors were retroclined (P<0.001), influencing the nasolabial angle, which was increased in comparison with Gothenburg (P=0.004). In conclusion, both centres showed a favourable craniofacial form at 9-10 years of age, although there were significant differences in the maxillary prominence, the incisor inclination and soft tissue cephalometric values. Follow-up of these patients until facial growth has ceased, may elucidate components for outcome improvement.

Secondary intraocular lenses in eyes with aphakia or dislocated IOL: impact of suture fixation on early and late complications

BACKGROUND: Secondary intraocular lens (IOL) implantation is exposed to an increased risk of complications, including endophthalmitis and retinal detachment. The present analysis compares the outcomes and complications experienced in our own series of patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed a consecutive series of secondary posterior chamber IOL implantations performed in a single centre, two surgeon setting over a period of 8 years and with a follow up-time of at least 4 months. RESULTS: Between 1997 and 2005, 75 patients received a sulcus-supported secondary IOL without suture fixation, whereas suture fixation was required in 137 instances. Visual acuity improved in both groups (group 1: from 0.36 +/- 0.39 (0.01-1.2) to 0.73 +/- 0.33 (0.02-1.0; p = 0.18); group 2: from 0.33 +/- 0.34 (0.02-1.0) to 0.46 +/- 0.33 (0.01-1.0; p = 0.006), but more pronounced in eyes not requiring suture fixation (p = 0.012). IOL placement was more likely to be combined with endophacoemulsification in the not suture-fixed IOLs (12.7 vs. 5.3 %). In contrast, retinal tears (10.6 vs. 8.6 %, respectively) and retinal detachment (5.3 vs. 2.2 %, respectively) were equally distributed. In the early postoperative phase, IOP was lower in suture-fixed eyes, which showed a higher incidence of minor intraocular haemorrhages and cystoid macular edema (5.3 vs. 8.0 %); late complications up to 5 years postoperatively were equally distributed. CONCLUSION: A preoperatively less complicated anterior segment situation and a lower incidence of postoperative macular edema may account for a better visual outcome after placement of a sulcus supported IOLs without suturing. If required, suture fixation may be performed without exposing the eye to an increased risk of late postoperative complications.

Bone fractures among postmenopausal patients with endocrine-responsive early breast cancer treated with 5 years of letrozole or tamoxifen in the BIG 1-98 trial

BACKGROUND: To compare the incidence and timing of bone fractures in postmenopausal women treated with 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen or letrozole for endocrine-responsive early breast cancer in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 trial. METHODS: We evaluated 4895 patients allocated to 5 years of letrozole or tamoxifen in the BIG 1-98 trial who received at least some study medication (median follow-up 60.3 months). Bone fracture information (grade, cause, site) was collected every 6 months during trial treatment. RESULTS: The incidence of bone fractures was higher among patients treated with letrozole [228 of 2448 women (9.3%)] versus tamoxifen [160 of 2447 women (6.5%)]. The wrist was the most common site of fracture in both treatment groups. Statistically significant risk factors for bone fractures during treatment included age, smoking history, osteoporosis at baseline, previous bone fracture, and previous hormone replacement therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with other trials comparing aromatase inhibitors to tamoxifen, letrozole was associated with an increase in bone fractures. Benefits of superior disease control associated with letrozole and lower incidence of fracture with tamoxifen should be considered with the risk profile for individual patients.

Is a black eye a useful sign of facial fractures in patients with minor head injuries? A retrospective analysis in a level I trauma centre over 10 years

Orbital blunt trauma is common, and the diagnosis of a fracture should be made by computed tomographic (CT) scan. However, this will expose patients to ionising radiation. Our objective was to identify clinical predictors of orbital fracture, in particular the presence of a black eye, to minimise unnecessary exposure to radiation. A 10-year retrospective study was made of the medical records of all patients with minor head trauma who presented with one or two black eyes to our emergency department between May 2000 and April 2010. Each of the patients had a CT scan, was over 16 years old, and had a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) of 13-15. The primary outcome was whether the black eye was a valuable predictor of a fracture. Accompanying clinical signs were considered as a secondary outcome. A total of 1676 patients (mean (SD) age 51 (22) years) and minor head trauma with either one or two black eyes were included. In 1144 the CT scan showed a fracture of the maxillofacial skeleton, which gave an incidence of 68.3% in whom a black eye was the obvious symptom. Specificity for facial fractures was particularly high for other clinical signs, such as diminished skin sensation (specificity 96.4%), diplopia or occulomotility disorders (89.3%), fracture steps (99.8%), epistaxis (95.5%), subconjunctival haemorrhage (90.4%), and emphysema (99.6%). Sensitivity for the same signs ranged from 10.8% to 22.2%. The most striking fact was that 68.3% of all patients with a black eye had an underlying fracture. We therefore conclude that a CT scan should be recommended for every patient with minor head injury who presents with a black eye.

Early developmental, temperamental and educational problems in ‘substance use disorder’ patients with and without ADHD. Does ADHD make a difference?

Introduction: The prevalence of ADHD among patients with substance use disorder (SUD) is substantial. This study addressed the following research questions: Are early developmental, temperamental and educational problems overrepresented among SUD patients with ADHD compared to SUD patients without ADHD? Do this comorbid group receive early help for their ADHD, and are there signs of self-medicating with illicit central stimulants? Method: An international, multi-centre cross-sectional study was carried out involving seven European countries, with 1205 patients in treatment for SUD. The mean age was 40 years and 27% of the sample was female. All par- ticipants were interviewed with the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview Plus and the Conners' Adult ADHD Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV. Results: SUD patients with ADHD (n = 196; 16.3% of the total sample) had a significantly slower infant develop- ment than SUD patients without ADHD (n = 1,009; 83.4%), had greater problems controlling their temperament, and had lower educational attainment. Only 24 (12%) of the current ADHD positive patients had been diagnosed and treated during childhood and/or adolescence. Finally, SUD patients with ADHD were more likely to have central stimulants or cannabis as their primary substance of abuse, whereas alcohol use was more likely to be the primary substance of abuse in SUD patients without ADHD. Conclusion: The results emphasize the importance of early identification of ADHD and targeted interventions in the health and school system, as well as in the addiction field.