Observation errors in early historical upper-air observations

Upper-air observations are a fundamental data source for global atmospheric data products, but uncertainties, particularly in the early years, are not well known. Most of the early observations, which have now been digitized, are prone to a large variety of undocumented uncertainties (errors) that need to be quantified, e.g., for their assimilation in reanalysis projects. We apply a novel approach to estimate errors in upper-air temperature, geopotential height, and wind observations from the Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network for the time period from 1923 to 1966. We distinguish between random errors, biases, and a term that quantifies the representativity of the observations. The method is based on a comparison of neighboring observations and is hence independent of metadata, making it applicable to a wide scope of observational data sets. The estimated mean random errors for all observations within the study period are 1.5 K for air temperature, 1.3 hPa for pressure, 3.0 ms−1for wind speed, and 21.4° for wind direction. The estimates are compared to results of previous studies and analyzed with respect to their spatial and temporal variability.

Long-term effects of watershed management on surface runoff and sediment loss in the Ethiopian Highlands

Data on rainfall, runoff and sediment loss from different land use types have been collected by the Soil Conservation Research Programme in seven small catchments (73-673 hectares) throughout the Ethiopian Highlands since the early 1980s. Monitoring was carried out on a storm-to-storm basis for extended periods of 10-20 years, and the data are analysed here to assess long-term effects of changes. Soil and water conservation technologies were introduced in the early years in the catchments in view of their capacity to reduce runoff and sediment yield. Results indicate that rainfall did not substantially change over the observation periods. Land use changes and land degradation, however, altered runoff, as shown by the data from small test plots (30 m2), which were not altered by conservation measures during the monitoring periods. Sediment delivery from the catchments may have decreased due to soil and water conservation, while runoff rates did not change significantly. Extrapolation of the results in the highlands, however, showed that expansion of cultivated and grazing land induced by population growth may have increased the overall surface runoff. Watershed management in the catchments, finally, had beneficial effects on ecosystem services by reducing soil erosion, restoring soil fertility, enhancing agricultural production, and maintaining overall runoff to the benefit of lowland areas and neighbouring countries.

A review on continuous wave functional near-infrared spectroscopy and imaging instrumentation and methodology

This year marks the 20th anniversary of functional near-infrared spectroscopy and imaging (fNIRS/fNIRI). As the vast majority of commercial instruments developed until now are based on continuous wave technology, the aim of this publication is to review the current state of instrumentation and methodology of continuous wave fNIRI. For this purpose we provide an overview of the commercially available instruments and address instrumental aspects such as light sources, detectors and sensor arrangements. Methodological aspects, algorithms to calculate the concentrations of oxy- and deoxyhemoglobin and approaches for data analysis are also reviewed. From the single-location measurements of the early years, instrumentation has progressed to imaging initially in two dimensions (topography) and then three (tomography). The methods of analysis have also changed tremendously, from the simple modified Beer-Lambert law to sophisticated image reconstruction and data analysis methods used today. Due to these advances, fNIRI has become a modality that is widely used in neuroscience research and several manufacturers provide commercial instrumentation. It seems likely that fNIRI will become a clinical tool in the foreseeable future, which will enable diagnosis in single subjects.

From Personal Network to Institution Building: The Lifanyuan and the Formalization of Manchu-Mongol Relations

The Qing emperors, who ruled over China from 1644-1911, managed to bring large parts of Inner Asia under their control and extended the territory of China to an unprecedented degree. This paper maintains that the political technique of patronage with its formalized language, its emphasis on gift exchange and expressions of courtesy is a useful concept for explaining the integration of Inner Asian confederations into the empire. By re-interpreting the obligations of gift exchange, the Qing transformed the network of personal relationships, which had to be reinforced and consolidated permanently into a system with clearly defined rules. In this process of formalization, the Lifanyuan, the Court for the Administration of the Outer Regions, played a key role. While in the early years of the dynasty, it was responsible for collecting and disseminating information concerning the various patronage relationships with Inner Asian leaders, over the course of the 17th and 18th centuries its efforts were directed at standardizing and streamlining the contacts between ethnic minorities and the state. Through the Lifanyuan, the rules and principles of patronage were maintained in a modified form even in the later part of the dynasty, when the Qing exercised control in the outer regions more directly. The paper provides an explanation for the longevity and cohesiveness of the multi-ethnic Qing empire. Based on recently published Manchu and Mongolian language archival material and the Maussian concept of gift exchange the study sheds new light on the changing self-conception of the Qing emperors.

European perspective on sport psychology

This chapter describes the development of sport psychology in Europe. Starting from the early years at the beginning of the 20th century, the contribution of European sport psychology in different cultural traditions to the development of this discipline is highlighted. The foundation of FEPSAC, the European Federation of Sport Psychology, and its role in this development are emphasised. During the first 20 years, Europe was a divided continent and the challenges were to establish a common understanding and possibilities for scientific exchange. After the fall of the Berlin wall and the change of the political landscape in Europe, central aims were to foster scientific exchange despite language difficulties, to develop a common understanding, to help young sport psychologists and to establish sport psychology as a professional field. In the new century, one group of challenges identified refers to unification, for example in education and training, in the services delivery, and in the structure. The second group of challenges relates to diversification, be it in the educational and vocational pathways, the different sports and physical activities, the inclusion of persons with special needs or background, or the publications.

Bone fractures among postmenopausal patients with endocrine-responsive early breast cancer treated with 5 years of letrozole or tamoxifen in the BIG 1-98 trial

BACKGROUND: To compare the incidence and timing of bone fractures in postmenopausal women treated with 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen or letrozole for endocrine-responsive early breast cancer in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 trial. METHODS: We evaluated 4895 patients allocated to 5 years of letrozole or tamoxifen in the BIG 1-98 trial who received at least some study medication (median follow-up 60.3 months). Bone fracture information (grade, cause, site) was collected every 6 months during trial treatment. RESULTS: The incidence of bone fractures was higher among patients treated with letrozole [228 of 2448 women (9.3%)] versus tamoxifen [160 of 2447 women (6.5%)]. The wrist was the most common site of fracture in both treatment groups. Statistically significant risk factors for bone fractures during treatment included age, smoking history, osteoporosis at baseline, previous bone fracture, and previous hormone replacement therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with other trials comparing aromatase inhibitors to tamoxifen, letrozole was associated with an increase in bone fractures. Benefits of superior disease control associated with letrozole and lower incidence of fracture with tamoxifen should be considered with the risk profile for individual patients.

Predictors of early mortality after acute ischaemic stroke.

BACKGROUND The study set out to identify clinical, laboratory and radiological predictors of early mortality after an acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) and to analyse medical and neurological complications that caused death. METHODS A total of 479 consecutive patients (mean age 63+/-14 years) with AIS underwent stroke examination and treatment. Examination included clinical evaluation, laboratory tests, and brain CT and/or MRI. Follow-up data at 30 days were available for 467 patients (93%) who were included in the present analysis. RESULTS The median National Institute of Health Stroke Study (NIHSS) score on admission was 6. A total of 62 patients (13%) died within 30 days. The cause of death was the initial event in 43 (69%), pneumonia in 12 (19%), intracerebral haemorrhage in 9 (15%), recurrent stroke in 6 (10%), myocardial infarction in 2 (3%), and cancer in 1 (2%) of the patients. In univariate comparisons, advanced age (p<0.001), hypertension (p=0.013), coronary disease (p=0.001), NIHSS score (p<0.001), undetermined stroke etiology (p=0.031), relevant co-morbidities (p=0.008), hyperglycemia (p<0.001), atrial fibrillation (p<0.001), early CT signs of ischemia (p<0.001), dense artery sign (p<0.001), proximal vessel occlusion (p<0.001), and thrombolysis (p=0.008) were associated with early mortality. In multivariate analysis, advanced age (HR=1.12; 95% CI 1.05-1.19; p<0.001) and high NIHSS score on admission (HR=1.15, 95% CI 1.05-1.25; p=0.002) were independent predictors of early mortality. CONCLUSIONS We report 13% mortality at 30 days after AIS. More than two thirds of the deaths are related to the initial stroke. Advanced age and high NIHSS score are the only independent predictors of early mortality in this series.

Vascularised fibula grafts for early tibia reconstruction in infants with congenital pseudarthrosis

Congenital pseudarthrosis of the tibia (CPT) is caused by an ill-defined, segmental disturbance of periosteal bone formation leading to spontaneous bowing, followed by fracture and subsequent pseudarthrosis in the first 2 years of life. The results of conventional treatment modalities (e.g., bracing, internal and external fixation and bone grafting) are associated with high failure rates in terms of persisting pseudarthrosis, malunion and impaired growth. As a more promising alternative, a more aggressive approach, including wide resection of the affected bone, reconstruction with free vascularised fibula grafts from the healthy contralateral leg and stable external fixation at a very early stage has been suggested. Between 1995 and 2007, 10 children (age 12-31 months, median 20 months) suffering from CPT were treated at our institutions according to this principle. Two patients were treated before a fracture had occurred. The length of the fibula graft was 7-9cm. End-to-end anastomoses were performed at the level of the distal tibia stump. The follow-up was 80 months (median, range 12 months to 12 years). Radiologic examination at 6 weeks postoperatively showed normal bone density and structure of the transplanted fibula in all cases and osseous consolidation at 19 of the 20 graft/tibia junctions. One nonunion was sucessfully treated with bone grafting and plate osteosynthesis. Pin-tract infection occurred in three patients. Five children sustained graft fractures that were successfully treated with internal or external fixation. Two patients developed diminished growth of the affected limb or foot; all others had equal limb length and shoe size. At long-term follow-up, tibialisation of the transplant had occurred, and normal gait and physical activities were possible in all children. We conclude that in spite of a relatively high complication rate and the reluctance to perform free flap surgery in infants at this young age, the present concept may successfully prevent the imminent severe sequelae associated with CPT.

Early loading at 21 days of non-submerged titanium implants with a chemically modified sandblasted and acid-etched surface: 3-year results of a prospective study in the posterior mandible

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates 3-year success rates of titanium screw-type implants with a chemically modified sandblasted and acid-etched surface (mod SLA), which were functionally loaded after 3 weeks of healing. METHODS: A total of 56 implants, inserted in the posterior mandibles of 39 partially edentulous patients, underwent undisturbed healing for 3 weeks. At day 21, the implants were fully loaded with provisional crowns. Definitive metal ceramic restorations were fabricated after 6 months of healing. Clinical measurements regarding soft tissue parameters and radiographs were obtained at different time points up to 36 months after implant placement. The soft tissue and radiographic parameters for the mod SLA implants after 3 years in function were compared to a historic control group of implants with an SLA surface using an early loading protocol after 6 weeks. RESULTS: None of the implants failed to integrate. However, two implants were considered "spinners" at day 21 and were left unloaded for an extended period. Therefore, 96.4% of the inserted implants were loaded according to the protocol tested. All 56 implants, including the "spinners," showed favorable clinical and radiographic findings at the 3-year follow-up examination. All 56 implants were considered successfully integrated, resulting in a 3-year survival and success rate of 100%. Dental implants with a mod SLA surface demonstrated statistically significant differences for probing depths and clinical attachment level values compared to the historic control group, with the mod SLA surface implants having overall lower probing depths and clinical attachment level scores. CONCLUSION: This prospective study using an early loading protocol demonstrates that titanium implants with the mod SLA surface can achieve and maintain successful tissue integration over a period of 3 years.

Early loading after 21 days of healing of nonsubmerged titanium implants with a chemically modified sandblasted and acid-etched surface: two-year results of a prospective two-center study

PURPOSE: The aim of this two-center study was to evaluate screw-type titanium implants with a chemically modified, sandblasted and acid-etched surface when placed in the posterior maxilla or mandible, and loaded 21 days after placement. MATERIAL AND METHODS: All 56 patients met strict inclusion criteria and provided informed consent. Each patient displayed either a single-tooth gap, an extended edentulous space, or a distal extension situation in the posterior mandible or maxilla. Eighty-nine dental implants (SLActive, Institut Straumann AG, Basel, Switzerland) were inserted according to an established nonsubmerged protocol and underwent undisturbed healing for a period of 21 days. Where appropriate, the implants were loaded after 21 days of healing with provisional restorations in full occlusion. Definitive metal ceramic restorations were fabricated and positioned on each implant after 6 months of healing. Clinical measurements regarding soft tissue parameters and radiographs were obtained at different time points up to 24 months after implant placement. RESULTS: Of the 89 inserted implants, two (2.2%) implants failed to integrate and were removed during healing, and two (2.2%) additional implants required a prolonged healing time. A total of 85 (95.6%) implants were therefore loaded without incident after 21 days of healing. No additional implant was lost throughout the study period, whereas one implant was lost to follow-up and therefore left unaccounted for further analysis. The remaining 86 implants all exhibited favorable radiographic and clinical findings. Based on strict success criteria, these implants were considered successfully integrated 2 years after insertion, resulting in a 2-year success rate of 97.7%. CONCLUSION: The results of this prospective two-center study demonstrate that titanium implants with a modified SLA surface can predictably achieve successful tissue integration when loaded in full occlusion 21 days after placement. Integration could be maintained without incident for at least 2 years of follow-up.

[Molecular analyses for (early) recognition of hematologic diseases - sense and sensibility for molecular analysis: the art of intelligent decision-making]

During the last 10 years several molecular markers have been established as useful tools among the armamentarium of a hematologist. As a consequence, the number of performed hematologic molecular analyses has immensely increased. Often, such tests replace or complement other laboratory methods. Molecular markers can be useful in many ways: they can serve for diagnostics, describe the prognostic profile, predict which types of drugs are indicated, and can be used for the therapeutic monitoring of the patient to indicate an adequate response or predict resistance or relapse of the disease. Many markers fulfill more than one of these aspects. Most important, however, is the right choice of analyses at the right time-points!