Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.

Patterns of the Remnant Cichlid Fauna in Southern Lake Victoria. Patrones de la Fauna de Ciclidos Remanentes en el Sur del Lago Victoria

During the years 1984–1987 Lake Victoria in East Africa experienced what is probably the largest mass extinction of contemporary vertebrates. Within a decade about 200 endemic species of haplochromine cichlids disappeared. The extinctions that occurred in the 1980s have been documented predominantly on species of offshore and sub-littoral waters in the Mwanza Gulf of southern Lake Victoria. Although the littoral fauna of southern Lake Victoria had not been examined in detail, their diversity seemed less affected by the changes in the ecosystem. We give results of the first comprehensive inventory of the littoral cichlid fauna in southern Lake Victoria and discuss its conservation status. We also report on new developments in the sub-littoral fauna after 1990. More than 50 littoral and 15 sub-littoral stations were sampled between the years 1991 to 1995. Of the littoral stations, 34 were sampled for the first time. One hundred sixty three species of haplochromines were collected. Of these, 102 species were previously unknown. About two thirds of them live in rocky areas that were sampled for the first time. Littoral rocky habitats harbored the highest diversity. Since 1990, however, 13 more species disappeared from established sampling stations in littoral habitats. Fishing practices, spreading of exotic fishes, water hyacinth, and eutrophication are considered important threats to the littoral fauna. Also in the upper sub-littoral the number of species declined further. On deeper sub-littoral mud bottoms individual and species numbers increased again, although they are nowhere close to those found before the Nile perch (Lates niloticus) upsurge. This fauna differs from the well studied pre-Nile perch fauna. At well-established sampling stations, the sub-littoral zone is dominated by previously unknown species, and some known species have performed dramatic habitat shifts.