Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data

The objective of this study was to characterize empirically the association between vaccination coverage and the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in Germany. In order to achieve this we analysed data routinely collected by the Robert Koch Institute, which comprise the weekly number of reported measles cases at all ages as well as estimates of vaccination coverage at the average age of entry into the school system. Coverage levels within each federal state of Germany are incorporated into a multivariate time-series model for infectious disease counts, which captures occasional outbreaks by means of an autoregressive component. The observed incidence pattern of measles for all ages is best described by using the log proportion of unvaccinated school starters in the autoregressive component of the model.

Transmission dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis affect the impact of screening programmes

To assess the impact of screening programmes in reducing the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis, mathematical and computational models are used as a guideline for decision support. Unfortunately, large uncertainties exist about the parameters that determine the transmission dynamics of C. trachomatis. Here, we use a SEIRS (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible) model to critically analyze the turnover of C. trachomatis in a population and the impact of a screening programme. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the most important steps during an infection with C. trachomatis. Varying the fraction of the infections becoming symptomatic as well as the duration of the symptomatic period within the range of previously used parameter estimates has little effect on the transmission dynamics. However, uncertainties in the duration of temporary immunity and the asymptomatic period can result in large differences in the predicted impact of a screening programme. We therefore analyze previously published data on the persistence of asymptomatic C. trachomatis infection in women and estimate the mean duration of the asymptomatic period to be longer than anticipated so far, namely 433 days (95% CI: 420-447 days). Our study shows that a longer duration of the asymptomatic period results in a more pronounced impact of a screening programme. However, due to the slower turnover of the infection, a substantial reduction in prevalence can only be achieved after screening for several years or decades.

Molecular epidemiology reveals long-term changes in HIV type 1 subtype B transmission in Switzerland

Sequence data from resistance testing offer unique opportunities to characterize the structure of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection epidemics.

The prevalence of penicillin-non-susceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae among children aged < 5 years correlates with the biannual epidemic activity of respiratory syncytial virus

This study investigated whether the epidemiology of penicillin-non-susceptible pneumococci (PNSP) colonising small children correlated with the biannual epidemic activity of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Colonisation rates and the prevalence of PNSP among paediatric outpatients aged < 5 years was analysed between January 1998 and September 2003 using an established national surveillance network. Resistance trends were investigated using time-series analysis to assess the correlation with the biannual pattern of RSV infections and national sales of oral paediatric formulations of antibiotics and antibiotic prescriptions to children aged < 5 years for acute respiratory tract infections. PNSP rates exhibited a biannual cycle in phase with the biannual seasonal RSV epidemics (p < 0.05). Resistance rates were higher during the winter seasons of 1998-1999 (20.1%), 2000-2001 (16.0%) and 2002-2003 (19.1%), compared with the winter seasons of 1997-1998 (8.2%), 1999-2000 (11.6%) and 2001-2002 (9.5%). Antibiotic sales and prescriptions showed regular peaks during each winter, with no significant correlation with the biannual pattern of RSV activity and seasonal trends of PNSP. RSV is an important determinant of the spread of PNSP and must be considered in strategies aimed at antimicrobial resistance control.

A 4-wk high-fructose diet alters lipid metabolism without affecting insulin sensitivity or ectopic lipids in healthy humans

BACKGROUND: High fructose consumption is suspected to be causally linked to the epidemics of obesity and metabolic disorders. In rodents, fructose leads to insulin resistance and ectopic lipid deposition. In humans, the effects of fructose on insulin sensitivity remain debated, whereas its effect on ectopic lipids has never been investigated. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the effect of moderate fructose supplementation on insulin sensitivity (IS) and ectopic lipids in healthy male volunteers (n = 7). DESIGN: IS, intrahepatocellular lipids (IHCL), and intramyocellular lipids (IMCL) were measured before and after 1 and 4 wk of a high-fructose diet containing 1.5 g fructose . kg body wt(-1) . d(-1). Adipose tissue IS was evaluated from nonesterified fatty acid suppression, hepatic IS from suppression of hepatic glucose output (6,6-2H2-glucose), and muscle IS from the whole-body glucose disposal rate during a 2-step hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp. IHCL and IMCL were measured by 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy. RESULTS: Fructose caused significant (P < 0.05) increases in fasting plasma concentrations of triacylglycerol (36%), VLDL-triacylglycerol (72%), lactate (49%), glucose (5.5%), and leptin (48%) without any significant changes in body weight, IHCL, IMCL, or IS. IHCL were negatively correlated with triacylglycerol after 4 wk of the high-fructose diet (r = -0.78, P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Moderate fructose supplementation over 4 wk increases plasma triacylglycerol and glucose concentrations without causing ectopic lipid deposition or insulin resistance in healthy humans.

Identification of Francisella tularensis cluster in central and western Europe

We conducted a molecular analysis of Francisella tularensis strains isolated in Switzerland and identified a specific subpopulation belonging to a cluster of F. tularensis subsp. holarctica that is widely dispersed in central and western continental Europe. This subpopulation was present before the tularemia epidemics on the Iberian Peninsula.

Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

Timing of bacterial carriage sampling in vaccine trials: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Estimates of vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional carriage data collected in RCTs are usually based on prevalence odds ratios (PORs) and prevalence ratios (PRs), but it is unclear when these should be measured. METHODS We developed dynamic compartmental transmission models simulating RCTs of a vaccine against a carried pathogen to investigate how VE can best be estimated from cross-sectional carriage data, at which time carriage should optimally be assessed, and to which factors this timing is most sensitive. In the models, vaccine could change carriage acquisition and clearance rates (leaky vaccine); values for these effects were explicitly defined (facq, 1/fdur). POR and PR were calculated from model outputs. Models differed in infection source: other participants or external sources unaffected by the trial. Simulations using multiple vaccine doses were compared to empirical data. RESULTS The combined VE against acquisition and duration calculated using POR (VEˆacq.dur, (1-POR)×100) best estimates the true VE (VEacq.dur, (1-facq×fdur)×100) for leaky vaccines in most scenarios. The mean duration of carriage was the most important factor determining the time until VEˆacq.dur first approximates VEacq.dur: if the mean duration of carriage is 1-1.5 months, up to 4 months are needed; if the mean duration is 2-3 months, up to 8 months are needed. Minor differences were seen between models with different infection sources. In RCTs with shorter intervals between vaccine doses it takes longer after the last dose until VEˆacq.dur approximates VEacq.dur. CONCLUSION The timing of sample collection should be considered when interpreting vaccine efficacy against bacterial carriage measured in RCTs.

Identification of animal Pasteurellaceae by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry

Species of the family Pasteurellaceae play an important role as primary or opportunistic, predominantly respiratory, pathogens in domestic and wild animals. Some of them cause severe disease with high economic losses in commercial animal husbandry. Hence, rapid and accurate differentiation of Pasteurellaceae is important and signifies a particular challenge to diagnostic laboratories. Identification and differentiation of Pasteurellaceae is mostly done using phenotypic tests or genetic identification based on sequence similarity of housekeeping genes, such as the rrs gene encoding the 16S ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA). Both approaches are time consuming, laborious, and costly, therefore often delaying the final diagnosis of disease or epidemics. Matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry represents an alternative rapid and reliable method for the differentiation of most members of the family Pasteurellaceae. It is able to differentiate within a few minutes the currently known 18 genera and most of the over 60 species and subspecies of Pasteurellaceae including many members encountered in veterinary diagnostic laboratories. A few closely related species and subspecies that cannot be discriminated by MALDI-TOF are easily identified further by complementary simple tests, such as hemolysis done simultaneously or routinely during pathogen isolation.

Hepatitis C: a changing epidemic.

Approximately 3% of the world population is estimated to have a chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and 500,000 individuals die from its consequences yearly. Persons who inject drugs (PWID) bear the majority of the disease burden in high-income countries. Drug substitution programmes have helped reduce HCV transmissions among PWID. However, recent epidemics of sexually transmitted HCV infections in HIV-infected men who have sex with men demonstrated the changing nature of the HCV epidemic. HCV therapy is undergoing a revolution, as new interferon-free, oral treatments eradicate HCV infections in almost all treated patients. As a consequence, the eradication of HCV has become a matter of debate and is becoming an important future public health target. However, for this to be achieved, many challenges need to be addressed, including the poor uptake of HCV testing, the high cost of the new antiviral combinations and the high frequency of re-infections after treatment in some populations.

Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: Transmission dynamics and rapid control.

International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of EVD in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.

Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced a confined rural outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases from July to October 2014. Understanding the transmission dynamics during the outbreak can provide important information for anticipating and controlling future EVD epidemics. I fitted an EVD transmission model to previously published data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 = 5.2 (95% CI [4.0-6.7]). The model suggests that the net reproduction number Rt fell below unity 28 days (95% CI [25-34] days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This study adds to previous epidemiological descriptions of the 2014 EVD outbreak in DRC, and is consistent with the notion that a rapid implementation of control interventions helped reduce further spread.

Hepatocellular carcinoma and lifestyles.

The majority of hepatocellular carcinoma occurs over pre-existing chronic liver diseases that share cirrhosis as an endpoint. In the last decade, a strong association between lifestyle and hepatocellular carcinoma has become evident. Abundance of energy-rich food and sedentary lifestyles have caused metabolic conditions such as obesity and diabetes mellitus to become global epidemics. Obesity and diabetes mellitus are both tightly linked to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and also increase hepatocellular carcinoma risk independent of cirrhosis. Emerging data suggest that physical activity not only counteracts obesity, diabetes mellitus and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, but also reduces cancer risk. Physical activity exerts significant anticancer effects in the absence of metabolic disorders. Here, we present a systematic review on lifestyles and hepatocellular carcinoma.

Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiated worldwide in several waves. We detected successive increases in population size for this pathogen over the last 200 years, practically coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the First World War and HIV epidemics. Two MDR clones of this lineage started to spread throughout central Asia and Russia concomitantly with the collapse of the public health system in the former Soviet Union. Mutations identified in genes putatively under positive selection and associated with virulence might have favored the expansion of the most successful branches of the lineage.

Evidence for Emergency Vaccination Having Played a Crucial Role to Control the 1965/66 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Switzerland.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease that caused several large outbreaks in Europe in the last century. The last important outbreak in Switzerland took place in 1965/66 and affected more than 900 premises and more than 50,000 animals were slaughtered. Large-scale emergency vaccination of the cattle and pig population has been applied to control the epidemic. In recent years, many studies have used infectious disease models to assess the impact of different disease control measures, including models developed for diseases exotic for the specific region of interest. Often, the absence of real outbreak data makes a validation of such models impossible. This study aimed to evaluate whether a spatial, stochastic simulation model (the Davis Animal Disease Simulation model) can predict the course of a Swiss FMD epidemic based on the available historic input data on population structure, contact rates, epidemiology of the virus, and quality of the vaccine. In addition, the potential outcome of the 1965/66 FMD epidemic without application of vaccination was investigated. Comparing the model outcomes to reality, only the largest 10% of the simulated outbreaks approximated the number of animals being culled. However, the simulation model highly overestimated the number of culled premises. While the outbreak duration could not be well reproduced by the model compared to the 1965/66 epidemic, it was able to accurately estimate the size of the area infected. Without application of vaccination, the model predicted a much higher mean number of culled animals than with vaccination, demonstrating that vaccination was likely crucial in disease control for the Swiss FMD outbreak in 1965/66. The study demonstrated the feasibility to analyze historical outbreak data with modern analytical tools. However, it also confirmed that predicted epidemics from a most carefully parameterized model cannot integrate all eventualities of a real epidemic. Therefore, decision makers need to be aware that infectious disease models are useful tools to support the decision-making process but their results are not equal valuable as real observations and should always be interpreted with caution.