A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

Prospective memory, executive functions, and metacognition are already differentiated in young elementary school children: Evidence from latent factor modelling

This study investigated the empirical differentiation of prospective memory, executive functions, and metacognition and their structural relationships in 119 elementary school children (M = 95 months, SD = 4.8 months). These cognitive abilities share many characteristics on the theoretical level and are all highly relevant in many everyday contexts when intentions must be executed. Nevertheless, their empirical relationships have not been examined on the latent level, although an empirical approach would contribute to our knowledge concerning the differentiation of cognitive abilities during childhood. We administered a computerized event-based prospective memory task, three executive function tasks (updating, inhibition, shifting), and a metacognitive control task in the context of spelling. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the three cognitive abilities are already empirically differentiable in young elementary school children. At the same time, prospective memory and executive functions were found to be strongly related, and there was also a close link between prospective memory and metacognitive control. Furthermore, executive functions and metacognitive control were marginally significantly related. The findings are discussed within a framework of developmental differentiation and conceptual similarities and differences.

Longitudinal relationships between prospective memory, executive functions, and metacognition in young elementary school children

Prospective Memory (PM), executive functions (EF) and metacognition (MC) are relevant cognitive abilities for everyday functioning. They all seem to develop gradually in childhood and appear to be theoretically closely related; however, their empirical links remain unclear, especially in children. As a recent study revealed significant cross-sectional links between PM and EF, and a weaker but close link between PM and MC in 2nd graders (Spiess, Meier, & Roebers, submitted), this study focused on their short-term relationships and on their development. 119 children (MT1 =95 months, SDT1, = 4.8 months) completed the same tasks (one PM, three EF, one MC task) twice with a time-lag of 7 months. T-tests showed significant improvements in all tasks, except in the updating task. Different structural equation models were contrasted (AMOS); the best fitting model revealed that PMT2 was similarly predicted by PMT1 (r = .33) and EFT1 (r = .34). Additionally, EFT1 predicted MCT2 (r = .44), chi2(118, 119) = 128.91, p = .23, TLI = .968, CFI = .978, RMSEA = .028. Results show that PM, EF, and MC develop during childhood and also demonstrate that they are linked not only cross-sectionally, but longitudinally. Findings are discussed in a broader developmental framework.

Direct Democracy and Institutional Trust: Relationships and Differences across Personality Traits

Direct democracy plays a prominent role in the explanation of institutional trust. To date, however, empirical findings on the effects of direct democracy remain inconclusive. In this article, we argue that this inconclusiveness can be partly ascribed to the diverse effects direct democracy has on individuals. In other words, direct democracy influences institutional trust, but how and to what degree depends on individuals’ personality traits. Running hierarchical analyses of unique survey data from a random sample of eligible Swiss voters, we document three findings: First, we show that the number of ballot measures is not directly associated with institutional trust. Second, we demonstrate that the Big Five personality traits affect the propensity to trust. Third, some of these traits also alter the relationship between direct democracy and institutional trust, suggesting that certain personality types are more likely to be sensitive to popular votes than others and that not everyone is equally likely to respond to political stimuli, even in highly democratic environments.