Perennial Snow and Ice Variations (2000-2008) in the Arctic Circumpolar Land Area from Satellite Observations

Perennial snow and ice (PSI) extent is an important parameter of mountain environments with regard to its involvement in the hydrological cycle and the surface energy budget. We investigated interannual variations of PSI in nine mountain regions of interest (ROI) between 2000 and 2008. For that purpose, a novel MODIS data set processed at the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing at 250 m spatial resolution was utilized. The extent of PSI exhibited significant interannual variations, with coefficients of variation ranging from 5% to 81% depending on the ROI. A strong negative relationship was found between PSI and positive degree-days (threshold 0°C) during the summer months in most ROIs, with linear correlation coefficients (r) being as low as r = −0.90. In the European Alps and Scandinavia, PSI extent was significantly correlated with annual net glacier mass balances, with r = 0.91 and r = 0.85, respectively, suggesting that MODIS-derived PSI extent may be used as an indicator of net glacier mass balances. Validation of PSI extent in two land surface classifications for the years 2000 and 2005, GLC-2000 and Globcover, revealed significant discrepancies of up to 129% for both classifications. With regard to the importance of such classifications for land surface parameterizations in climate and land surface process models, this is a potential source of error to be investigated in future studies. The results presented here provide an interesting insight into variations of PSI in several ROIs and are instrumental for our understanding of sensitive mountain regions in the context of global climate change assessment.

Critical core mass for enriched envelopes: the role of H2O condensation

Context. Within the core accretion scenario of planetary formation, most simulations performed so far always assume the accreting envelope to have a solar composition. From the study of meteorite showers on Earth and numerical simulations, we know that planetesimals must undergo thermal ablation and disruption when crossing a protoplanetary envelope. Thus, once the protoplanet has acquired an atmosphere, not all planetesimals reach the core intact, i.e. the primordial envelope (mainly H and He) gets enriched in volatiles and silicates from the planetesimals. This change of envelope composition during the formation can have a significant effect on the final atmospheric composition and on the formation timescale of giant planets. Aims. We investigate the physical implications of considering the envelope enrichment of protoplanets due to the disruption of icy planetesimals during their way to the core. Particular focus is placed on the effect on the critical core mass for envelopes where condensation of water can occur. Methods. Internal structure models are numerically solved with the implementation of updated opacities for all ranges of metallicities and the software Chemical Equilibrium with Applications to compute the equation of state. This package computes the chemical equilibrium for an arbitrary mixture of gases and allows the condensation of some species, including water. This means that the latent heat of phase transitions is consistently incorporated in the total energy budget. Results. The critical core mass is found to decrease significantly when an enriched envelope composition is considered in the internal structure equations. A particularly strong reduction of the critical core mass is obtained for planets whose envelope metallicity is larger than Z approximate to 0.45 when the outer boundary conditions are suitable for condensation of water to occur in the top layers of the atmosphere. We show that this effect is qualitatively preserved even when the atmosphere is out of chemical equilibrium. Conclusions. Our results indicate that the effect of water condensation in the envelope of protoplanets can severely affect the critical core mass, and should be considered in future studies.

Global carbon budget 2013

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr − 1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr − 1, S OCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, and S LAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr − 1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, 2.2 % above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr − 1, SOCEANwas 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1, and assuming an ELU Cof 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr − 1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 con- centration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1–3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61 % above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70 % from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Milk fatty acid profile related to energy balance in dairy cows

Milk fatty acid (FA) profile is a dynamic pattern influenced by lactational stage, energy balance and dietary composition. In the first part of this study, effects of the energy balance during the proceeding lactation [weeks 1-21 post partum (pp)] on milk FA profile of 30 dairy cows were evaluated under a constant feeding regimen. In the second part, effects of a negative energy balance (NEB) induced by feed restriction on milk FA profile were studied in 40 multiparous dairy cows (20 feed-restricted and 20 control). Feed restriction (energy balance of -63 MJ NEL/d, restriction of 49 % of energy requirements) lasted 3 weeks starting at around 100 days in milk. Milk FA profile changed markedly from week 1 pp up to week 12 pp and remained unchanged thereafter. The proportion of saturated FA (predominantly 10:0, 12:0, 14:0 and 16:0) increased from week 1 pp up to week 12 pp, whereas monounsaturated FA, predominantly the proportion of 18:1,9c decreased as NEB in early lactation became less severe. During the induced NEB, milk FA profile showed a similarly directed pattern as during the NEB in early lactation, although changes were less marked for most FA. Milk FA composition changed rapidly within one week after initiation of feed restriction and tended to adjust to the initial composition despite maintenance of a high NEB. C18:1,9c was increased significantly during the induced NEB indicating mobilization of a considerable amount of adipose tissue. Besides 18:1,9c, changes in saturated FA, monounsaturated FA, de-novo synthesized and preformed FA (sum of FA >C16) reflected energy status in dairy cows and indicated the NEB in early lactation as well as the induced NEB by feed restriction.

The new insight into dynamic crossover in glass forming liquids from the apparent enthalpy analysis

One of the most intriguing phenomena in glass forming systems is the dynamic crossover (T(B)), occurring well above the glass temperature (T(g)). So far, it was estimated mainly from the linearized derivative analysis of the primary relaxation time τ(T) or viscosity η(T) experimental data, originally proposed by Stickel et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 104, 2043 (1996); J. Chem. Phys. 107, 1086 (1997)]. However, this formal procedure is based on the general validity of the Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann equation, which has been strongly questioned recently [T. Hecksher et al. Nature Phys. 4, 737 (2008); P. Lunkenheimer et al. Phys. Rev. E 81, 051504 (2010); J. C. Martinez-Garcia et al. J. Chem. Phys. 134, 024512 (2011)]. We present a qualitatively new way to identify the dynamic crossover based on the apparent enthalpy space (H(a)(') = dlnτ/d(1/T)) analysis via a new plot lnH(a)(') vs. 1∕T supported by the Savitzky-Golay filtering procedure for getting an insight into the noise-distorted high order derivatives. It is shown that depending on the ratio between the "virtual" fragility in the high temperature dynamic domain (m(high)) and the "real" fragility at T(g) (the low temperature dynamic domain, m = m(low)) glass formers can be splitted into two groups related to f < 1 and f > 1, (f = m(high)∕m(low)). The link of this phenomenon to the ratio between the apparent enthalpy and activation energy as well as the behavior of the configurational entropy is indicated.

Dosimetric impact of geometric errors due to respiratory motion prediction on dynamic multileaf collimator-based four-dimensional radiation delivery

The synchronization of dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) response with respiratory motion is critical to ensure the accuracy of DMLC-based four dimensional (4D) radiation delivery. In practice, however, a finite time delay (response time) between the acquisition of tumor position and multileaf collimator response necessitates predictive models of respiratory tumor motion to synchronize radiation delivery. Predicting a complex process such as respiratory motion introduces geometric errors, which have been reported in several publications. However, the dosimetric effect of such errors on 4D radiation delivery has not yet been investigated. Thus, our aim in this work was to quantify the dosimetric effects of geometric error due to prediction under several different conditions. Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for a lung patient were generated for anterior-posterior/posterior-anterior (AP/PA) beam arrangements at 6 and 18 MV energies to provide planned dose distributions. Respiratory motion data was obtained from 60 diaphragm-motion fluoroscopy recordings from five patients. A linear adaptive filter was employed to predict the tumor position. The geometric error of prediction was defined as the absolute difference between predicted and actual positions at each diaphragm position. Distributions of geometric error of prediction were obtained for all of the respiratory motion data. Planned dose distributions were then convolved with distributions for the geometric error of prediction to obtain convolved dose distributions. The dosimetric effect of such geometric errors was determined as a function of several variables: response time (0-0.6 s), beam energy (6/18 MV), treatment delivery (3D/4D), treatment type (conformal/IMRT), beam direction (AP/PA), and breathing training type (free breathing/audio instruction/visual feedback). Dose difference and distance-to-agreement analysis was employed to quantify results. Based on our data, the dosimetric impact of prediction (a) increased with response time, (b) was larger for 3D radiation therapy as compared with 4D radiation therapy, (c) was relatively insensitive to change in beam energy and beam direction, (d) was greater for IMRT distributions as compared with conformal distributions, (e) was smaller than the dosimetric impact of latency, and (f) was greatest for respiration motion with audio instructions, followed by visual feedback and free breathing. Geometric errors of prediction that occur during 4D radiation delivery introduce dosimetric errors that are dependent on several factors, such as response time, treatment-delivery type, and beam energy. Even for relatively small response times of 0.6 s into the future, dosimetric errors due to prediction could approach delivery errors when respiratory motion is not accounted for at all. To reduce the dosimetric impact, better predictive models and/or shorter response times are required.

Monte Carlo simulation of a dynamic MLC based on a multiple source model

Detailed knowledge of the characteristics of the radiation field shaped by a multileaf collimator (MLC) is essential in intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). A previously developed multiple source model (MSM) for a 6 MV beam was extended to a 15 MV beam and supplemented with an accurate model of an 80-leaf dynamic MLC. Using the supplemented MSM and the MC code GEANT, lateral dose distributions were calculated in a water phantom and a portal water phantom. A field which is normally used for the validation of the step and shoot technique and a field from a realistic IMRT treatment plan delivered with dynamic MLC are investigated. To assess possible spectral changes caused by the modulation of beam intensity by an MLC, the energy spectra in five portal planes were calculated for moving slits of different widths. The extension of the MSM to 15 MV was validated by analysing energy fluences, depth doses and dose profiles. In addition, the MC-calculated primary energy spectrum was verified with an energy spectrum which was reconstructed from transmission measurements. MC-calculated dose profiles using the MSM for the step and shoot case and for the dynamic MLC case are in very good agreement with the measured data from film dosimetry. The investigation of a 13 cm wide field shows an increase in mean photon energy of up to 16% for the 0.25 cm slit compared to the open beam for 6 MV and of up to 6% for 15 MV, respectively. In conclusion, the MSM supplemented with the dynamic MLC has proven to be a powerful tool for investigational and benchmarking purposes or even for dose calculations in IMRT.

Monte Carlo simulation of a dynamic MLC: implementation and applications

PURPOSE: Study of behavior and influence of a multileaf collimator (MLC) on dose calculation, verification, and portal energy spectra in the case of intensity-modulated fields obtained with a step-and-shoot or a dynamic technique. METHODS: The 80-leaf MLC for the Varian Clinac 2300 C/D was implemented in a previously developed Monte Carlo (MC) based multiple source model (MSM) for a 6 MV photon beam. Using this model and the MC program GEANT, dose distributions, energy fluence maps and energy spectra at different portal planes were calculated for three different MLC applications. RESULTS: The comparison of MC-calculated dose distributions in the phantom and portal plane, with those measured with films showed an agreement within 3% and 1.5 mm for all cases studied. The deviations mainly occur in the extremes of the intensity modulation. The MC method allows to investigate, among other aspects, dose components, energy fluence maps, tongue-and-groove effects and energy spectra at portal planes. CONCLUSION: The MSM together with the implementation of the MLC is appropriate for a number of investigations in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT).

Dynamic SLA management with forecasting using multi-objective optimization

Cost-efficient operation while satisfying performance and availability guarantees in Service Level Agreements (SLAs) is a challenge for Cloud Computing, as these are potentially conflicting objectives. We present a framework for SLA management based on multi-objective optimization. The framework features a forecasting model for determining the best virtual machine-to-host allocation given the need to minimize SLA violations, energy consumption and resource wasting. A comprehensive SLA management solution is proposed that uses event processing for monitoring and enables dynamic provisioning of virtual machines onto the physical infrastructure. We validated our implementation against serveral standard heuristics and were able to show that our approach is significantly better.

Increasing the dynamic range for the analysis of boron in PGAA

Prompt gamma activation analysis (PGAA) is especially sensitive for elements with high neutron-capture cross sections, like boron, which can be detected down to a level of ng/g. However, if it is a major component, the high count rate from its signal will distort the spectra, making the evaluation difficult. A lead attenuator was introduced in front of the HPGe-detector to reduce low-energy gamma radiation and specifically the boron gamma rays reaching the detector, whose thickness was found to be optimal at 10 mm. Detection efficiencies with and without the lead attenuator were compared, and it was shown that the dynamic range of the PGAA technique was significantly increased. The method was verified with the analyses of stoichiometric compounds: TiB2, NiB, PVC, Alborex, and Alborite.

Optimal compliance with emission constraints: dynamic characteristics and the choice of technique

The paper analyzes how to comply with an emission constraint, which restricts the use of an established energy technique, given the two options to save energy and to invest in two alternative energy techniques. These techniques differ in their deterioration rates and the investment lags of the corresponding capital stocks. Thus, the paper takes a medium-term perspective on climate change mitigation, where the time horizon is too short for technological change to occur, but long enough for capital stocks to accumulate and deteriorate. It is shown that, in general, only one of the two alternative techniques prevails in the stationary state, although, both techniques might be utilized during the transition phase. Hence, while in a static economy only one technique is efficient, this is not necessarily true in a dynamic economy.

The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. Based on energy statistics, we estimate that the global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production were 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, 3.0 percent above 2010 levels. We project these emissions will increase by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of Gross World Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. Global net CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change, including deforestation, are more difficult to update annually because of data availability, but combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation and models suggests those net emissions were 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and reached 391.38 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011, increasing 1.70 ± 0.09 ppm yr−1 or 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 in 2011. Estimates from four ocean models suggest that the ocean CO2 sink was 2.6 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, implying a global residual terrestrial CO2 sink of 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

Transient sediment supply in a high-altitude Alpine environment evidenced through a 10Be budget of the Etages catchment (French Western Alps)

Although beryllium-10 (10Be) concentrations in stream sediments provide useful synoptic views of catchment-wide erosion rates, little is known on the relative contributions of different sediment supply mechanisms to the acquisition of their initial signature in the headwaters. Here we address this issue by conducting a 10Be-budget of detrital materials that characterize the morphogenetic domains representative of high-altitude environments of the European Alps. We focus on the Etages catchment, located in the Ecrins-Pelvoux massif (southeast France), and illustrate how in situ 10Be concentrations can be used for tracing the origin of the sand fraction from the bedload in the trunk stream. The landscape of the Etages catchment is characterized by a geomorphic transient state, high topographic gradients, and a large variety of modern geomorphic domains ranging from glacial environments to scarcely vegetated alluvial plains. Beryllium-10 concentrations measured in the Etages catchment vary from similar to 1 x 104 to 4.5 x 105 atoms per gram quartz, while displaying consistent 10Be signatures within each representative morphogenetic unit. We show that the basic requirements for inferring catchment-wide denudation from 10Be concentration measurements are not satisfied in this small, dynamic catchment. However, the distinct 10Be signature observed for the geomorphic domains can be used as a tracer. We suggest that a terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) budget approach provides a valuable tool for the tracing of material origin in basins where the let nature do the averaging' principles may be violated.