Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

The dust environment of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko from Rosetta OSIRIS and VLT observations in the 4.5 to 2.9 AU heliocentric distance range inbound

Context. The ESA Rosetta spacecraft, currently orbiting around cornet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, has already provided in situ measurements of the dust grain properties from several instruments, particularly OSIRIS and GIADA. We propose adding value to those measurements by combining them with ground-based observations of the dust tail to monitor the overall, time-dependent dust-production rate and size distribution. Aims. To constrain the dust grain properties, we take Rosetta OSIRIS and GIADA results into account, and combine OSIRIS data during the approach phase (from late April to early June 2014) with a large data set of ground-based images that were acquired with the ESO Very Large Telescope (VLT) from February to November 2014. Methods. A Monte Carlo dust tail code, which has already been used to characterise the dust environments of several comets and active asteroids, has been applied to retrieve the dust parameters. Key properties of the grains (density, velocity, and size distribution) were obtained from. Rosetta observations: these parameters were used as input of the code to considerably reduce the number of free parameters. In this way, the overall dust mass-loss rate and its dependence on the heliocentric distance could be obtained accurately. Results. The dust parameters derived from the inner coma measurements by OSIRIS and GIADA and from distant imaging using VLT data are consistent, except for the power index of the size-distribution function, which is alpha = -3, instead of alpha = -2, for grains smaller than 1 mm. This is possibly linked to the presence of fluffy aggregates in the coma. The onset of cometary activity occurs at approximately 4.3 AU, with a dust production rate of 0.5 kg/s, increasing up to 15 kg/s at 2.9 AU. This implies a dust-to-gas mass ratio varying between 3.8 and 6.5 for the best-fit model when combined with water-production rates from the MIRO experiment.

EAU guidelines on surgical treatment of urinary incontinence

The European Association of Urology (EAU) guidelines on urinary incontinence published in March 2012 have been rewritten based on an independent systematic review carried out by the EAU guidelines panel using a sustainable methodology. OBJECTIVE: We present a short version here of the full guidelines on the surgical treatment of patients with urinary incontinence, with the aim of dissemination to a wider audience. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: Evidence appraisal included a pragmatic review of existing systematic reviews and independent new literature searches based on Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome (PICO) questions. The appraisal of papers was carried out by an international panel of experts, who also collaborated in a series of consensus discussions, to develop concise structured evidence summaries and action-based recommendations using a modified Oxford system. EVIDENCE SUMMARY: The full version of the guidance is available online (www.uroweb.org/guidelines/online-guidelines/). The guidance includes algorithms that refer the reader back to the supporting evidence and have greater accessibility in daily clinical practice. Two original meta-analyses were carried out specifically for these guidelines and are included in this report. CONCLUSIONS: These new guidelines present an up-to-date summary of the available evidence, together with clear clinical algorithms and action-based recommendations based on the best available evidence. Where high-level evidence is lacking, they present a consensus of expert panel opinion.

Marshall's Lemma for Convex Density Estimation

Marshall's (1970) lemma is an analytical result which implies root-n-consistency of the distribution function corresponding to the Grenander (1956) estimator of a non-decreasing probability density. The present paper derives analogous results for the setting of convex densities on [0,\infty).

[Study protocol of the VISEP study. Response of the SepNet study group]

In the commentary by Zander et al. the authors appear concerned about the methods and results of our, at that time, unpublished sepsis trial evaluating hydroxyethyl starch (HES) and insulin therapy. Unfortunately, the authors' concerns are based on false assumptions about the design, conduct and modes of action of the compounds under investigation. For instance, in our study the HES solution was not used for maintenance of daily fluid requirements, so that the assumption of the authors that this colloid was used "exclusively" is wrong. Moreover, the manufacturer of Hemohes, the HES product we used, gives no cut-off value for creatinine, thus the assumption that this cut-off value was "doubled" in our study is also incorrect. Other claims by the authors such as that lactated solutions cause elevated lactate levels, iatrogenic hyperglycemia and increase O(2) consumption are unfounded. There is no randomized controlled trial supporting such a claim - this claim is neither consistent with our study data nor with any credible published sepsis guidelines or with routine practice worldwide. We fully support open scientific debate. Our study methods and results have now been published after a strict peer-reviewing process and this data is now open to critical and constructive reviewing. However, in our opinion this premature action based on wrong assumptions and containing comments by representatives of pharmaceutical companies does not contribute to a serious, unbiased scientific discourse.

An integral conservative gridding--algorithm using Hermitian curve interpolation

The problem of re-sampling spatially distributed data organized into regular or irregular grids to finer or coarser resolution is a common task in data processing. This procedure is known as 'gridding' or 're-binning'. Depending on the quantity the data represents, the gridding-algorithm has to meet different requirements. For example, histogrammed physical quantities such as mass or energy have to be re-binned in order to conserve the overall integral. Moreover, if the quantity is positive definite, negative sampling values should be avoided. The gridding process requires a re-distribution of the original data set to a user-requested grid according to a distribution function. The distribution function can be determined on the basis of the given data by interpolation methods. In general, accurate interpolation with respect to multiple boundary conditions of heavily fluctuating data requires polynomial interpolation functions of second or even higher order. However, this may result in unrealistic deviations (overshoots or undershoots) of the interpolation function from the data. Accordingly, the re-sampled data may overestimate or underestimate the given data by a significant amount. The gridding-algorithm presented in this work was developed in order to overcome these problems. Instead of a straightforward interpolation of the given data using high-order polynomials, a parametrized Hermitian interpolation curve was used to approximate the integrated data set. A single parameter is determined by which the user can control the behavior of the interpolation function, i.e. the amount of overshoot and undershoot. Furthermore, it is shown how the algorithm can be extended to multidimensional grids. The algorithm was compared to commonly used gridding-algorithms using linear and cubic interpolation functions. It is shown that such interpolation functions may overestimate or underestimate the source data by about 10-20%, while the new algorithm can be tuned to significantly reduce these interpolation errors. The accuracy of the new algorithm was tested on a series of x-ray CT-images (head and neck, lung, pelvis). The new algorithm significantly improves the accuracy of the sampled images in terms of the mean square error and a quality index introduced by Wang and Bovik (2002 IEEE Signal Process. Lett. 9 81-4).

On trend estimation under monotone Gaussian subordination with long-memory: application to fossil pollen series

Fossil pollen data from stratigraphic cores are irregularly spaced in time due to non-linear age-depth relations. Moreover, their marginal distributions may vary over time. We address these features in a nonparametric regression model with errors that are monotone transformations of a latent continuous-time Gaussian process Z(T). Although Z(T) is unobserved, due to monotonicity, under suitable regularity conditions, it can be recovered facilitating further computations such as estimation of the long-memory parameter and the Hermite coefficients. The estimation of Z(T) itself involves estimation of the marginal distribution function of the regression errors. These issues are considered in proposing a plug-in algorithm for optimal bandwidth selection and construction of confidence bands for the trend function. Some high-resolution time series of pollen records from Lago di Origlio in Switzerland, which go back ca. 20,000 years are used to illustrate the methods.

"Fact versus Fiction – How paratextual information shapes our reading processes"

Our life is full of stories: some of them depict real-life events and were reported, e.g. in the daily news or in autobiographies, whereas other stories, as often presented to us in movies and novels, are fictional. However, we have only little insights in the neurocognitive processes underlying the reading of factual as compared to fictional contents. We investigated the neurocognitive effects of reading short narratives, labeled to be either factual or fictional. Reading in a factual mode engaged an activation pattern suggesting an action-based reconstruction of the events depicted in a story. This process seems to be past-oriented and leads to shorter reaction times at the behavioral level. In contrast, the brain activation patterns corresponding to reading fiction seem to reflect a constructive simulation of what might have happened. This is in line with studies on imagination of possible past or future events.

EAU guidelines on surgical treatment of urinary incontinence

CONTEXT The European Association of Urology (EAU) guidelines on urinary incontinence published in March 2012 have been rewritten based on an independent systematic review carried out by the EAU guidelines panel using a sustainable methodology. OBJECTIVE We present a short version here of the full guidelines on the surgical treatment of patients with urinary incontinence, with the aim of dissemination to a wider audience. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION Evidence appraisal included a pragmatic review of existing systematic reviews and independent new literature searches based on Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome (PICO) questions. The appraisal of papers was carried out by an international panel of experts, who also collaborated in a series of consensus discussions, to develop concise structured evidence summaries and action-based recommendations using a modified Oxford system. EVIDENCE SUMMARY The full version of the guidance is available online (www.uroweb.org/guidelines/online-guidelines/). The guidance includes algorithms that refer the reader back to the supporting evidence and have greater accessibility in daily clinical practice. Two original meta-analyses were carried out specifically for these guidelines and are included in this report. CONCLUSIONS These new guidelines present an up-to-date summary of the available evidence, together with clear clinical algorithms and action-based recommendations based on the best available evidence. Where high-level evidence is lacking, they present a consensus of expert panel opinion.

Proton entry into the near-lunar plasma wake for magnetic field aligned flow

We report the first observation of protons in the near-lunar (100-200 km from the surface) and deeper (near anti-subsolar point) plasma wake when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind velocity (vsw) are parallel (aligned flow; angle between IMF and vsw≤10°). More than 98% of the observations during aligned flow condition showed the presence of protons in the wake. These observations are obtained by the Solar Wind Monitor sensor of the Sub-keV Atom Reflecting Analyser experiment on Chandrayaan-1. The observation cannot be explained by the conventional fluid models for aligned flow. Back tracing of the observed protons suggests that their source is the solar wind. The larger gyroradii of the wake protons compared to that of solar wind suggest that they were part of the tail of the solar wind velocity distribution function. Such protons could enter the wake due to their large gyroradii even when the flow is aligned to IMF. However, the wake boundary electric field may also play a role in the entry of the protons into the wake.

Alveolar derecruitment and collapse induration as crucial mechanisms in lung injury and fibrosis.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis are associated with surfactant system dysfunction, alveolar collapse (derecruitment), and collapse induration (irreversible collapse). These events play undefined roles in the loss of lung function. The purpose of this study was to quantify how surfactant inactivation, alveolar collapse, and collapse induration lead to degradation of lung function. Design-based stereology and invasive pulmonary function tests were performed 1, 3, 7, and 14 days after intratracheal bleomycin-instillation in rats. The number and size of open alveoli was correlated to mechanical properties. Active surfactant subtypes declined by Day 1, associated with a progressive alveolar derecruitment and a decrease in compliance. Alveolar epithelial damage was more pronounced in closed alveoli compared with ventilated alveoli. Collapse induration occurred on Day 7 and Day 14 as indicated by collapsed alveoli overgrown by a hyperplastic alveolar epithelium. This pathophysiology was also observed for the first time in human IPF lung explants. Before the onset of collapse induration, distal airspaces were easily recruited, and lung elastance could be kept low after recruitment by positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP). At later time points, the recruitable fraction of the lung was reduced by collapse induration, causing elastance to be elevated at high levels of PEEP. Surfactant inactivation leading to alveolar collapse and subsequent collapse induration might be the primary pathway for the loss of alveoli in this animal model. Loss of alveoli is highly correlated with the degradation of lung function. Our ultrastructural observations suggest that collapse induration is important in human IPF.

Backscattered energetic neutral atoms from the Moon in the Earth's plasma sheet observed by Chandarayaan-1/Sub-keV Atom Reflecting Analyzer instrument

We present the observations of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) produced at the lunar surface in the Earth's magnetotail. When the Moon was located in the terrestrial plasma sheet, Chandrayaan-1 Energetic Neutrals Analyzer (CENA) detected hydrogen ENAs from the Moon. Analysis of the data from CENA together with the Solar Wind Monitor (SWIM) onboard Chandrayaan-1 reveals the characteristic energy of the observed ENA energy spectrum (the e-folding energy of the distribution function) ∼100 eV and the ENA backscattering ratio (defined as the ratio of upward ENA flux to downward proton flux) <∼0.1. These characteristics are similar to those of the backscattered ENAs in the solar wind, suggesting that CENA detected plasma sheet particles backscattered as ENAs from the lunar surface. The observed ENA backscattering ratio in the plasma sheet exhibits no significant difference in the Southern Hemisphere, where a large and strong magnetized region exists, compared with that in the Northern Hemisphere. This is contrary to the CENA observations in the solar wind, when the backscattering ratio drops by ∼50% in the Southern Hemisphere. Our analysis and test particle simulations suggest that magnetic shielding of the lunar surface in the plasma sheet is less effective than in the solar wind due to the broad velocity distributions of the plasma sheet protons.