Trends in mean and extreme precipitation in the Mount Kenya region from observations and reanalyses

Land and water management in semi-arid regions requires detailed information on precipitation distribution, including extremes, and changes therein. Such information is often lacking. This paper describes statistics of mean and extreme precipitation in a unique data set from the Mount Kenya region, encompassing around 50 stations with at least 30 years of data. We describe the data set, including quality control procedures and statistical break detection. Trends in mean precipitation and extreme indices calculated from these data for individual rainy seasons are compared with corresponding trends in reanalysis products. From 1979 to 2011, mean precipitation decreased at 75% of the stations during the ‘long rains’ (March to May) and increased at 70% of the stations during the ‘short rains’ (October to December). Corresponding trends are found in the number of heavy precipitation days, and maximum of consecutive 5-day precipitation. Conversely, an increase in consecutive dry days within both main rainy seasons is found. However, trends are only statistically significant in very few cases. Reanalysis data sets agree with observations with respect to interannual variability, while correlations are considerably lower for monthly deviations (ratios) from the mean annual cycle. While some products well reproduce the rainfall climatology and some the spatial trend pattern, no product reproduces both.

Comparing CFSR and conventional weather data for discharge and soil loss modelling with SWAT in small catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands

Accurate rainfall data are the key input parameter for modelling river discharge and soil loss. Remote areas of Ethiopia often lack adequate precipitation data and where these data are available, there might be substantial temporal or spatial gaps. To counter this challenge, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) readily provides weather data for any geographic location on earth between 1979 and 2014. This study assesses the applicability of CFSR weather data to three watersheds in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia. To this end, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up to simulate discharge and soil loss, using CFSR and conventional weather data, in three small-scale watersheds ranging from 112 to 477 ha. Calibrated simulation results were compared to observed river discharge and observed soil loss over a period of 32 years. The conventional weather data resulted in very good discharge outputs for all three watersheds, while the CFSR weather data resulted in unsatisfactory discharge outputs for all of the three gauging stations. Soil loss simulation with conventional weather inputs yielded satisfactory outputs for two of three watersheds, while the CFSR weather input resulted in three unsatisfactory results. Overall, the simulations with the conventional data resulted in far better results for discharge and soil loss than simulations with CFSR data. The simulations with CFSR data were unable to adequately represent the specific regional climate for the three watersheds, performing even worse in climatic areas with two rainy seasons. Hence, CFSR data should not be used lightly in remote areas with no conventional weather data where no prior analysis is possible.

A cross cultural study of vaginal practices and sexuality: Implications for sexual health

Between 2005 and 2006, we investigated vaginal practices in Yogyakarta, Indonesia; Tete, Mozambique; KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; and Bangkok and Chonburi, Thailand. We sought to understand women's practices, their motivations for use and the role vaginal practices play in women's health, sexuality and sense of wellbeing. The study was carried out among adult women and men who were identified as using, having knowledge or being involved in trade in products. Further contacts were made using snowball sampling. Across the sites, individual interviews were conducted with 229 people and 265 others participated in focus group discussions. We found that women in all four countries have a variety of reasons for carrying out vaginal practices whose aim is to not simply 'dry' the vagina but rather decrease moisture that may have other associated meanings, and that they are exclusively "intravaginal" in operation. Practices, products and frequency vary. Motivations generally relate to personal hygiene, genital health or sexuality. Hygiene practices involve external washing and intravaginal cleansing or douching and ingestion of substances. Health practices include intravaginal cleansing, traditional cutting, insertion of herbal preparations, and application of substances to soothe irritated vaginal tissue. Practices related to sexuality can involve any of these practices with specific products that warm, dry, and/or tighten the vagina to increase pleasure for the man and sometimes for the woman. Hygiene and health are expressions of femininity connected to sexuality even if not always explicitly expressed as such. We found their effects may have unexpected and even undesired consequences. This study demonstrates that women in the four countries actively use a variety of practices to achieve a desired vaginal state. The results provide the basis for a classification framework that can be used for future study of this complex topic.

Equine botulism and acute pasture myodystrophy: new soil-borne emerging diseases in Switzerland?

In Switzerland, the incidence of equine botulism and acute pasture myodystrophy have remarkably increased in the last five years. Equine fodder-borne botulism in Europe is most likely caused by Clostridium botulinum types C and D that produce the toxins BoNT/C and BoNT/D. Horses showing signs suggestive of botulism (muscle weakness and tremors, reduced tongue tone, slow chewing, salivation and difficulties swallowing, drooping eyelids, mydriasis), especially patients that have fed on suspect fodder (mostly haylage), must be treated with anti-serum as soon as possible.They also need intensive care, which is often difficult to provide and always expensive in the face of a guarded to poor prognosis. Therefore, prevention (high standards of forage quality and vaccination) is all the more important. Pasture myodystrophy is an acute disease with signs of rhabdomyolysis and lethality rate over 90%. It affects grazing horses under frosty, windy and rainy conditions. Preliminary results indicate that Clostridium sordellii and Clostridium bifermentans producing lethal toxin may play a role in pasture myodystrophy. Our efforts concentrate on developing a new subunit vaccine for equine botulism and understanding the ethiology and pathogenesis of pasture myodystrophy with the goal of improving prevention against these highly fatal diseases that present a significant risk to our horse population.

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

Late-Holocene climate variability and ecosystem responses in Alaska inferred from high-resolution multiproxy sediment analyses at Grizzly Lake

The late-Holocene shift from Picea glauca (white spruce) to Picea mariana (black spruce) forests marked the establishment of modern boreal forests in Alaska. To understand the patterns and drivers of this vegetational change and the associated late-Holocene environmental dynamics, we analyzed radiocarbon-dated sediments from Grizzly Lake for chironomids, diatoms, pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, element composition, particle size, and magnetic properties for the period 4100–1800 cal BP. Chironomid assemblages reveal two episodes of decreased July temperature, at ca. 3300–3150 (ca −1 °C) and 2900–2550 cal BP (ca −2 °C). These episodes coincided with climate change elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, atmospheric reorganization, and low solar activity. Diatom-inferred lake levels dropped by ca. 5 m at 3200 cal BP, suggesting dry conditions during the period 3200–1800 cal BP. P. glauca declined and P. mariana expanded at ca. 3200 cal BP; this vegetational change was linked to diatom-inferred low lake levels and thus decreased moisture availability. Forest cover declined at 3300–3100, 2800–2500 and 2300–2100 cal BP and soil erosion as inferred from increased values of Al, K, Si, Ti, and Ca intensified, when solar irradiance was low. Plant taxa adapted to disturbance and cold climate (e.g. Alnus viridis, shrub Betula, Epilobium) expanded during these periods of reduced forest cover. This open vegetation type was associated with high fire activity that peaked at 2800 cal BP, when climatic conditions were particularly cold and dry. Forest recovery lagged behind subsequent climate warming (≤+3 °C) by ca. 75–225 years. Our multiproxy data set suggests that P. glauca was dominant under warm-moist climatic conditions, whereas P. mariana prevailed under cold-dry and warm-dry conditions. This pattern implies that climatic warming, as anticipated for this century, may promote P. glauca expansions, if moisture availability will be sufficiently high, while P. mariana may expand under dry conditions, possibly exacerbating climate impacts on the fire regime.

Paleoglaciated landscapes in Simen and other high-mountain areas of Ethiopia

In the present-day Ethiopia, glaciated landscapes do not exist, but paleoglaciated landscapes have been documented on a few mountain tops, which have altitudes higher than about 4,350 m asl in northern Ethiopia (Simen Mountains) and about 4,100 m asl in southern Ethiopia (Arsi and Bale Mountains). Glaciers were associated with the Late Pleistocene cold stages and reached as far down as 3,760 m asl in northern and 3,200 m asl in southern Ethiopia. Bale Mountains had the most extensive Late Pleistocene glaciation, covering over 190 km2, followed by Arsi Mountains (about 85 km2). In Simen, the Late Pleistocene glaciers covered merely 13 km2. In addition, paleo-periglacial slope deposits are found on all above-mentioned paleoglaciated mountains and in further mountain systems which did not host glaciers. This allows the reconstruction of the Late Pleistocene paleoclimate as being about 8 °C colder than at present (2014), much more dry, and probably without monsoon, at least in northern Ethiopia. Most probably in the Early Holocene, the re-emergence of monsoonal rains led to a strong erosion phase, which was followed by an extended stable phase with soil formation, building up about 70-cm-deep A-horizons (Andosol) on the paleo-periglacial slope deposits. These soils have been heavily degraded due to human-induced soil erosion up to about 3800 m asl since agriculture started several decades to millennia ago.

The Interaction Between Forest Fires and Human Activity in Southern Switzerland

The impact of human activities on the fire regime in southern Switzerland was studied using (pre)historical charcoal and pollen data from lake sediments and statistical data from the 20th century. The cultural impact on forest fire was established by correlating charcoal-influx data with pollen percentages of anthropogenic indicators such as Plantago lanceolata, the Cerealia (sum of Avena t., Triticum t. and Hordeum t.) and Secale. During the 20th century, fire frequency was correlated with precipitation, dry and very dry periods and landscape management indicators. The effects of human activity on the fire regime are clearly recognisable since at least the Neolithic period. Using palaeoecological or statistical data, the variations in fire regime originating from anthropogenic actions may be differentiated from those due to climatic changes if they are sufficiently conspicuous.

Methods for preparing and counting biochemical varves

Four different preparation and counting methods for biochemical varves were compared in order to assess counting errors and to standardize these techniques. The properties of two embedding methods, namely the shock-freeze, freeze-dry and the water-acetone-epoxy-exchange method, are discussed. Varve counts were carried out on fresh sediment and on sediment thin-sections, on the latter by manual and by automated counting using image-analysis software. Counting on fresh sediment and using image-analysis generally underestimated the number of varves, especially in sections with inconspicuous varves. A comparison between multiple varve counts carried out by a single analyst and different analysts showed no significant differences in the mean varve counts.

Reproducibility of retinal thickness measurements in patients with age-related macular degeneration using 3D Fourier-domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) (Topcon 3D-OCT 1000)

Conventional time-domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) has become an important tool for following dry or exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Fourier-domain three-dimensional (3D) OCT was recently introduced. This study tested the reproducibility of 3D-OCT retinal thickness measurements in patients with dry and exudative AMD.

Inhibition of bacterial degradation of EtG by collection as dried urine spots (DUS)

Ethyl glucuronide (EtG) and ethyl sulfate (EtS) are direct alcohol consumption markers widely used nowadays for clinical and forensic applications. They are detectable in blood and urine even after consumption of trace amounts of ethanol and for a longer time frame, being detectable even when no more ethanol is present. The instability of EtG against bacterial degradation in contaminated urine samples and/or the possible postcollection synthesis of this metabolite in samples containing, e.g., Escherichia coli and ethanol, may cause false identification of alcohol uptake. Therefore, it is of paramount importance to constrict these error sources by inhibition of any bacterial growth causing hydrolization or synthesis of EtG. This study evaluates a new method of collecting urine samples on filter paper, dried urine spots (DUS), for simultaneous detection of EtG, EtS and creatinine, having the great advantage of inhibiting bacterial activity. In addition, a method validation for the determination of EtG and EtS in DUS was performed according to the FDA guidelines. Sterile-filtered urine was spiked with EtG and EtS, inoculated with E. coli and incubated. Liquid and dried urine samples were collected after various time intervals up to 96 h. Liquid samples were frozen immediately after collection, whereas aliquots for DUS were pipetted onto filter paper, allowed to dry and stored at RT until analysis 1 week after. The specimens were analyzed by LC-ESI-MS/MS. As expected, degradation of EtG, but not of EtS, was observed in contaminated liquid urine samples. However, the specimens collected on filter paper and stored at RT showed no degradation during storage. Therefore, collecting urine samples on filter paper for EtG and EtS analysis turns out to be a reliable method to avoid bacterial degradation of EtG and EtS, and consequently, stabilization of these ethanol metabolites is achieved. In addition, simultaneous measurement of creatinine content as an indicator of urine dilution helps to interpret the results. Method validation for EtG and EtS in DUS was satisfactory, showing the linearity of the calibration curves in the studied concentration range, good precision, accuracy and selectivity.

Nicoletella semolina gen. nov., sp. nov., a new member of Pasteurellaceae isolated from horses with airway disease

Gram-negative, nonmotile bacteria that are catalase, oxidase, and urease positive are regularly isolated from the airways of horses with clinical signs of respiratory disease. On the basis of the findings by a polyphasic approach, we propose that these strains be classified as Nicoletella semolina gen. nov, sp. nov., a new member of the family Pasteurellaceae. N. semolina reduces nitrate to nitrite but is otherwise biochemically inert; this includes the lack of an ability to ferment glucose and other sugars. Growth is fastidious, and the isolates have a distinctive colony morphology, with the colonies being dry and waxy and looking like a semolina particle that can be moved around on an agar plate without losing their shape. DNA-DNA hybridization data and multilocus phylogenetic analysis, including 16S rRNA gene (rDNA), rpoB, and infB sequencing, clearly placed N. semolina as a new genus in the family Pasteurellaceae. In all the phylogenetic trees constructed, N. semolina is on a distinct branch displaying approximately 5% 16S rDNA, approximately 16% rpoB, and approximately 20% infB sequence divergence from its nearest relative within the family Pasteurellaceae. High degrees of conservation of the 16S rDNA (99.8%), rpoB (99.6%), and infB (99.7%) sequences exist within the species, indicating that N. semolina isolates not only are phenotypically homogeneous but also are genetically homogeneous. The type strain of N. semolina is CCUG43639(T) (DSM16380(T)).

A 350 ka record of climate change from Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic: refining the pattern of climate modes by means of cluster analysis

Abstract. Rock magnetic, biochemical and inorganic records of the sediment cores PG1351 and Lz1024 from Lake El’gygytgyn, Chukotka peninsula, Far East Russian Arctic, were subject to a hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis in order to refine and extend the pattern of climate modes as defined by Melles et al. (2007). Cluster analysis of the data obtained from both cores yielded similar results, differentiating clearly between the four climate modes warm, peak warm, cold and dry, and cold and moist. In addition, two transitional phases were identified, representing the early stages of a cold phase and slightly colder conditions during a warm phase. The statistical approach can thus be used to resolve gradual changes in the sedimentary units as an indicator of available oxygen in the hypolimnion in greater detail. Based upon cluster analyses on core Lz1024, the published succession of climate modes in core PG1351, covering the last 250 ka, was modified and extended back to 350 ka. Comparison to the marine oxygen isotope (�18O) stack LR04 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) and the summer insolation at 67.5� N, with the extended Lake El’gygytgyn parameter records of magnetic susceptibility (�LF), total organic carbon content (TOC) and the chemical index of alteration (CIA; Minyuk et al., 2007), revealed that all stages back to marine isotope stage (MIS) 10 and most of the substages are clearly reflected in the pattern derived from the cluster analysis.