Distance-based kriging relying on proxy simulations for inverse conditioning

Let us consider a large set of candidate parameter fields, such as hydraulic conductivity maps, on which we can run an accurate forward flow and transport simulation. We address the issue of rapidly identifying a subset of candidates whose response best match a reference response curve. In order to keep the number of calls to the accurate flow simulator computationally tractable, a recent distance-based approach relying on fast proxy simulations is revisited, and turned into a non-stationary kriging method where the covariance kernel is obtained by combining a classical kernel with the proxy. Once the accurate simulator has been run for an initial subset of parameter fields and a kriging metamodel has been inferred, the predictive distributions of misfits for the remaining parameter fields can be used as a guide to select candidate parameter fields in a sequential way. The proposed algorithm, Proxy-based Kriging for Sequential Inversion (ProKSI), relies on a variant of the Expected Improvement, a popular criterion for kriging-based global optimization. A statistical benchmark of ProKSI’s performances illustrates the efficiency and the robustness of the approach when using different kinds of proxies.

Internet based health promotion campaign against skin cancer - Results of www.skincheck.ch in Switzerland

Conventional skin cancer prevention programs appeal to limited populations, and the middle aged male population responds less frequently. Our objective was to establish a complementary health promotion campaign tool for skin cancer prevention. Internet-based education, instruction for self assessment and teledermatological evaluation of skin lesions by an expert commission of dermatologists was used. Compliance and clinical diagnosis was assessed in a subgroup. 12,000 users visited the educational website. There was strong interest among the middle aged male population (53% (N = 262): male; mean age: 42). 28.5% of examined lesions (N = 494) were considered suspicious. Email requests, sent to the group whose lesions where considered suspicious, were answered by 46.0% of females (N = 29) and 59.7% of males (N = 46) with a female distribution predominantly in younger ages (52.6% of females with known age: < 30 years). Males were predominantly represented over 30 years (86.2% of all males). According to user's declarations, at least 8 (8.5%) malignant lesions (1 melanoma in situ, 1 squamous cell carcinoma, 4 basal cell carcinomas, 2 malignant lesions without declared diagnosis) were finally diagnosed by physicians. We conclude that internet-based, interactive, educational programs, in addition to existing health promotion campaigns, can enhance public participation in the middle aged male population in skin cancer prevention.

Eco-evolutionary Dynamics of Individual-Based Food Webs

The past decade has seen the rise of high resolution datasets. One of the main surprises of analysing such data has been the discovery of a large genetic, phenotypic and behavioural variation and heterogeneous metabolic rates among individuals within natural populations. A parallel discovery from theory and experiments has shown a strong temporal convergence between evolutionary and ecological dynamics, but a general framework to analyse from individual-level processes the convergence between ecological and evolutionary dynamics and its implications for patterns of biodiversity in food webs has been particularly lacking. Here, as a first approximation to take into account intraspecific variability and the convergence between the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in large food webs, we develop a model from population genomics and microevolutionary processes that uses sexual reproduction, genetic-distance-based speciation and trophic interactions. We confront the model with the prey consumption per individual predator, species-level connectance and prey–predator diversity in several environmental situations using a large food web with approximately 25,000 sampled prey and predator individuals. We show higher than expected diversity of abundant species in heterogeneous environmental conditions and strong deviations from the observed distribution of individual prey consumption (i.e. individual connectivity per predator) in all the environmental conditions. The observed large variance in individual prey consumption regardless of the environmental variability collapsed species-level connectance after small increases in sampling effort. These results suggest (1) intraspecific variance in prey–predator interactions has a strong effect on the macroscopic properties of food webs and (2) intraspecific variance is a potential driver regulating the speed of the convergence between ecological and evolutionary dynamics in species-rich food webs. These results also suggest that genetic–ecological drift driven by sexual reproduction, equal feeding rate among predator individuals, mutations and genetic-distance-based speciation can be used as a neutral food web dynamics test to detect the ecological and microevolutionary processes underlying the observed patterns of individual and species-based food webs at local and macroecological scales.

The Role for Virtual Patients in the Future of Medical Education

The medical education community is working-across disciplines and across the continuum-to address the current challenges facing the medical education system and to implement strategies to improve educational outcomes. Educational technology offers the promise of addressing these important challenges in ways not previously possible. The authors propose a role for virtual patients (VPs), which they define as multimedia, screen-based interactive patient scenarios. They believe VPs offer capabilities and benefits particularly well suited to addressing the challenges facing medical education. Well-designed, interactive VP-based learning activities can promote the deep learning that is needed to handle the rapid growth in medical knowledge. Clinically oriented learning from VPs can capture intrinsic motivation and promote mastery learning. VPs can also enhance trainees' application of foundational knowledge to promote the development of clinical reasoning, the foundation of medical practice. Although not the entire solution, VPs can support competency-based education. The data created by the use of VPs can serve as the basis for multi-institutional research that will enable the medical education community both to better understand the effectiveness of educational interventions and to measure progress toward an improved system of medical education.

Frequency-Dependent Selection Predicts Patterns of Radiations and Biodiversity

Most empirical studies support a decline in speciation rates through time, although evidence for constant speciation rates also exists. Declining rates have been explained by invoking pre-existing niches, whereas constant rates have been attributed to non-adaptive processes such as sexual selection and mutation. Trends in speciation rate and the processes underlying it remain unclear, representing a critical information gap in understanding patterns of global diversity. Here we show that the temporal trend in the speciation rate can also be explained by frequency-dependent selection. We construct a frequency-dependent and DNA sequence-based model of speciation. We compare our model to empirical diversity patterns observed for cichlid fish and Darwin's finches, two classic systems for which speciation rates and richness data exist. Negative frequency-dependent selection predicts well both the declining speciation rate found in cichlid fish and explains their species richness. For groups like the Darwin's finches, in which speciation rates are constant and diversity is lower, speciation rate is better explained by a model without frequency-dependent selection. Our analysis shows that differences in diversity may be driven by incipient species abundance with frequency-dependent selection. Our results demonstrate that genetic-distance-based speciation and frequency-dependent selection are sufficient to explain the high diversity observed in natural systems and, importantly, predict decay through time in speciation rate in the absence of pre-existing niches.

Physicians' knowledge and continuing medical education regarding fitness to drive: a questionnaire-based survey in Southeast Switzerland

Valid information for physicians in Switzerland concerning knowledge and continuing education in traffic medicine is not available. Also, their attitude to the legally prescribed periodic driving fitness examinations is unclear. In order to gain more information about these topics, 635 resident physicians in Southeast Switzerland were sent a questionnaire (response rate 52%). In a self-estimation, 79% of the queried physicians claimed to know the minimal medical requirements for drivers which are important in their specialty. Statistically significant differences existed between the specialties, whereby general practitioners most frequently claimed to know the minimal medical requirements (90%). It appears that the minimal medical requirements for drivers are well known to the queried physicians. Fifty-two percent of the physicians favored an expansion of continuing education in traffic medicine. Such an expansion was desired to a lesser extent by physicians without knowledge of the minimal requirements (p < 0.001). A clear majority of the medical professionals adjudged the legally prescribed periodic driving fitness examinations as being an expedient means to identify unfit drivers. A national standardized form for reporting potentially unfit drivers to the licensing authorities was supported by 68% of the responding physicians. Such a form could simplify and standardize the reports to the licensing authorities.

Potential of information technology in dental education

The use of information technology (IT) in dentistry is far ranging. In order to produce a working document for the dental educator, this paper focuses on those methods where IT can assist in the education and competence development of dental students and dentists (e.g. e-learning, distance learning, simulations and computer-based assessment). Web pages and other information-gathering devices have become an essential part of our daily life, as they provide extensive information on all aspects of our society. This is mirrored in dental education where there are many different tools available, as listed in this report. IT offers added value to traditional teaching methods and examples are provided. In spite of the continuing debate on the learning effectiveness of e-learning applications, students request such approaches as an adjunct to the traditional delivery of learning materials. Faculty require support to enable them to effectively use the technology to the benefit of their students. This support should be provided by the institution and it is suggested that, where possible, institutions should appoint an e-learning champion with good interpersonal skills to support and encourage faculty change. From a global prospective, all students and faculty should have access to e-learning tools. This report encourages open access to e-learning material, platforms and programs. The quality of such learning materials must have well defined learning objectives and involve peer review to ensure content validity, accuracy, currency, the use of evidence-based data and the use of best practices. To ensure that the developers' intellectual rights are protected, the original content needs to be secure from unauthorized changes. Strategies and recommendations on how to improve the quality of e-learning are outlined. In the area of assessment, traditional examination schemes can be enriched by IT, whilst the Internet can provide many innovative approaches. Future trends in IT will evolve around improved uptake and access facilitated by the technology (hardware and software). The use of Web 2.0 shows considerable promise and this may have implications on a global level. For example, the one-laptop-per-child project is the best example of what Web 2.0 can do: minimal use of hardware to maximize use of the Internet structure. In essence, simple technology can overcome many of the barriers to learning. IT will always remain exciting, as it is always changing and the users, whether dental students, educators or patients are like chameleons adapting to the ever-changing landscape.