7 resultados para Discrete Events Simulation

em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça


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At the mid-latitudes of Utopia Planitia (UP), Mars, a suite of spatially-associated landforms exhibit geomorphological traits that, on Earth, would be consistent with periglacial processes and the possible freeze-thaw cycling of water. The suite comprises small-sized polygonally-patterned ground, polygon-junction and -margin pits, and scalloped, rimless depressions. Typically, the landforms incise a dark-toned terrain that is thought to be ice-rich. Here, we investigate the dark-toned terrain by using high resolution images from the HiRISE as well as near-infrared spectral-data from the OMEGA and CRISM. The terrain displays erosional characteristics consistent with a sedimentary nature and near-infrared spectra characterised by a blue slope similar to that of weathered basaltic-tephra. We also describe volcanic terrain that is dark-toned and periglacially-modified in the Kamchatka mountain-range of eastern Russia. The terrain is characterised by weathered tephra inter-bedded with snow, ice-wedge polygons and near-surface excess ice. The excess ice forms in the pore space of the tephra as the result of snow-melt infiltration and, subsequently, in-situ freezing. Based on this possible analogue, we construct a three-stage mechanism that explains the possible ice-enrichment of a broad expanse of dark-toned terrain at the mid-latitudes of UP: (1) the dark-toned terrain accumulates and forms via the regional deposition of sediments sourced from explosive volcanism; (2) the volcanic sediments are blanketed by atmospherically-precipitated (H2O) snow, ice or an admixture of the two, either concurrent with the volcanic-events or between discrete events; and, (3) under the influence of high obliquity or explosive volcanism, boundary conditions tolerant of thaw evolve and this, in turn, permits the migration, cycling and eventual formation of excess ice in the volcanic sediments. Over time, and through episodic iterations of this scenario, excess ice forms to decametres of depth. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Stochastic simulation is an important and practical technique for computing probabilities of rare events, like the payoff probability of a financial option, the probability that a queue exceeds a certain level or the probability of ruin of the insurer's risk process. Rare events occur so infrequently, that they cannot be reasonably recorded during a standard simulation procedure: specifc simulation algorithms which thwart the rarity of the event to simulate are required. An important algorithm in this context is based on changing the sampling distribution and it is called importance sampling. Optimal Monte Carlo algorithms for computing rare event probabilities are either logarithmic eficient or possess bounded relative error.

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Human HeLa cells expressing mouse connexin30 were used to study the electrical properties of gap junction channel substates. Experiments were performed on cell pairs using a dual voltage-clamp method. Single-channel currents revealed discrete levels attributable to a main state, a residual state, and five substates interposed, suggesting the operation of six subgates provided by the six connexins of a gap junction hemichannel. Substate conductances, gamma(j,substate), were unevenly distributed between the main-state and the residual-state conductance (gamma(j,main state) = 141 pS, gamma(j,residual state) = 21 pS). Activation of the first subgate reduced the channel conductance by approximately 30%, and activation of subsequent subgates resulted in conductance decrements of 10-15% each. Current transitions between the states were fast (<2 ms). Substate events were usually demarcated by transitions from and back to the main state; transitions among substates were rare. Hence, subgates are recruited simultaneously rather than sequentially. The incidence of substate events was larger at larger gradients of V(j). Frequency and duration of substate events increased with increasing number of synchronously activated subgates. Our mathematical model, which describes the operation of gap junction channels, was expanded to include channel substates. Based on the established V(j)-sensitivity of gamma(j,main state) and gamma(j,residual state), the simulation yielded unique functions gamma(j,substate) = f(V(j)) for each substate. Hence, the spacing of subconductance levels between the channel main state and residual state were uneven and characteristic for each V(j).

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PURPOSE: To compare objective fellow and expert efficiency indices for an interventional radiology renal artery stenosis skill set with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Mentice VIST simulator was used for three different renal artery stenosis simulations of varying difficulty, which were used to grade performance. Fellows' indices at three intervals throughout 1 year were compared to expert baseline performance. Seventy-four simulated procedures were performed, 63 of which were captured as audiovisual recordings. Three levels of fellow experience were analyzed: 1, 6, and 12 months of dedicated interventional radiology fellowship. The recordings were compiled on a computer workstation and analyzed. Distinct measurable events in the procedures were identified with task analysis, and data regarding efficiency were extracted. Total scores were calculated as the product of procedure time, fluoroscopy time, tools, and contrast agent volume. The lowest scores, which reflected efficient use of tools, radiation, and time, were considered to indicate proficiency. Subjective analysis of participants' procedural errors was not included in this analysis. RESULTS: Fellows' mean scores diminished from 1 month to 12 months (42,960 at 1 month, 18,726 at 6 months, and 9,636 at 12 months). The experts' mean score was 4,660. In addition, the range of variance in score diminished with increasing experience (from a range of 5,940-120,156 at 1 month to 2,436-85,272 at 6 months and 2,160-32,400 at 12 months). Expert scores ranged from 1,450 to 10,800. CONCLUSIONS: Objective efficiency indices for simulated procedures can demonstrate scores directly comparable to the level of clinical experience.

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Up to 15 people can participate in the game, which is supervised by a moderator. Households consisting of 1-5 people discuss options for diversification of household strategies. Aim of the game: By devising appropriate strategies, households seek to stand up to various types of events while improving their economic and social situation and, at the same time, taking account of ecological conditions. The annual General Community Meeting (GCM) provides an opportunity for households to create a general set-up at the local level that is more or less favourable to the strategies they are pursuing. The development of a community investment strategy, to be implemented by the GCM, and successful coordination between households will allow players to optimise their investments at the household level. The household who owns the most assets at the end of the game wins. Players participate very actively, as the game stimulates lively and interesting discussions. They find themselves confronted with different types of decision-making related to the reality of their daily lives. They explore different ways to model their own household strategies and discuss risks and opportunities. Reflections on the course of the game continually refer to the real-life situations of the participants.

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Three teams consisting of 2 to 5 persons each play the game. Each team represents a farm. Each team decides jointly on its strategy. In annual meetings in winter, the farm teams jointly discuss, evaluate and decide on how to proceed and actions to be taken. The farms make use of three different pasture areas (village pasture, intensive pasture and summer pasture) for grazing their livestock. The carrying capacity of each pasture area is different and varies according to the season. In each season, the farms have to decide on how many livestock units to graze on which pasture. Overgrazing and pasture degradation occur if the total number of livestock units exceeds the carrying capacity of a specific pasture area. Overgrazing results in a reduction of pasture productivity. To diversify and improve their livelihood strategy farms can make individual investments to increase productivity at the farm level, eg. in fodder production or in income generating activities. At the community level, collective investments can be made which may influence livestock and household economy, e.g. rehabilitate and improve pasture productivity, improve living conditions on remote pastures etc. Events occurring in the course of the game represent different types of (risk) factors such as meteorology, market, politics etc. that may positively or negatively influence livestock production and household economy. A sustainable management of pastures requires that farms actively regulate the development of their herds, that they take measures to prevent pasture degradation and to improve pasture productivity, and that they find a balance between livestock economy and other productive activities. The game has a double aim: a) each farm aims at its economic success and prosperity, and b) the three farm teams jointly have to find and implement strategies for a sustainable use of pasture areas.