Fluctuation analysis of lung function as a predictor of long-term response to beta2-agonists

The response to beta(2)-agonists differs between asthmatics and has been linked to subsequent adverse events, even death. Possible determinants include beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype at position 16, lung function and airway hyperresponsiveness. Fluctuation analysis provides a simple parameter alpha measuring the complex correlation properties of day-to-day peak expiratory flow. The present study investigated whether alpha predicts clinical response to beta(2)-agonist treatment, taking into account other conventional predictors. Analysis was performed on previously published twice-daily peak expiratory flow measurements in 66 asthmatic adults over three 6-month randomised order treatment periods: placebo, salbutamol and salmeterol. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the association between alpha during the placebo period and response to treatment (change in the number of days with symptoms), taking into account other predictors namely beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype, lung function and its variability, and airway hyperresponsiveness. The current authors found that alpha measured during the placebo period considerably improved the prediction of response to salmeterol treatment, taking into account genotype, lung function or its variability, or airway hyperresponsiveness. The present study provides further evidence that response to beta(2)-agonists is related to the time correlation properties of lung function in asthma. The current authors conclude that fluctuation analysis of lung function offers a novel predictor to identify patients who may respond well or poorly to treatment.

Risk of severe asthma episodes predicted from fluctuation analysis of airway function

Asthma is an increasing health problem worldwide, but the long-term temporal pattern of clinical symptoms is not understood and predicting asthma episodes is not generally possible. We analyse the time series of peak expiratory flows, a standard measurement of airway function that has been assessed twice daily in a large asthmatic population during a long-term crossover clinical trial. Here we introduce an approach to predict the risk of worsening airflow obstruction by calculating the conditional probability that, given the current airway condition, a severe obstruction will occur within 30 days. We find that, compared with a placebo, a regular long-acting bronchodilator (salmeterol) that is widely used to improve asthma control decreases the risk of airway obstruction. Unexpectedly, however, a regular short-acting beta2-agonist bronchodilator (albuterol) increases this risk. Furthermore, we find that the time series of peak expiratory flows show long-range correlations that change significantly with disease severity, approaching a random process with increased variability in the most severe cases. Using a nonlinear stochastic model, we show that both the increased variability and the loss of correlations augment the risk of unstable airway function. The characterization of fluctuations in airway function provides a quantitative basis for objective risk prediction of asthma episodes and for evaluating the effectiveness of therapy.

Correlation properties of spontaneous motor activity in healthy infants: a new computer-assisted method to evaluate neurological maturation

Qualitative assessment of spontaneous motor activity in early infancy is widely used in clinical practice. It enables the description of maturational changes of motor behavior in both healthy infants and infants who are at risk for later neurological impairment. These assessments are, however, time-consuming and are dependent upon professional experience. Therefore, a simple physiological method that describes the complex behavior of spontaneous movements (SMs) in infants would be helpful. In this methodological study, we aimed to determine whether time series of motor acceleration measurements at 40-44 weeks and 50-55 weeks gestational age in healthy infants exhibit fractal-like properties and if this self-affinity of the acceleration signal is sensitive to maturation. Healthy motor state was ensured by General Movement assessment. We assessed statistical persistence in the acceleration time series by calculating the scaling exponent α via detrended fluctuation analysis of the time series. In hand trajectories of SMs in infants we found a mean α value of 1.198 (95 % CI 1.167-1.230) at 40-44 weeks. Alpha changed significantly (p = 0.001) at 50-55 weeks to a mean of 1.102 (1.055-1.149). Complementary multilevel regression analysis confirmed a decreasing trend of α with increasing age. Statistical persistence of fluctuation in hand trajectories of SMs is sensitive to neurological maturation and can be characterized by a simple parameter α in an automated and observer-independent fashion. Future studies including children at risk for neurological impairment should evaluate whether this method could be used as an early clinical screening tool for later neurological compromise.

Long-range correlations in rectal temperature fluctuations of healthy infants during maturation

BACKGROUND: Control of breathing, heart rate, and body temperature are interdependent in infants, where instabilities in thermoregulation can contribute to apneas or even life-threatening events. Identifying abnormalities in thermoregulation is particularly important in the first 6 months of life, where autonomic regulation undergoes critical development. Fluctuations in body temperature have been shown to be sensitive to maturational stage as well as system failure in critically ill patients. We thus aimed to investigate the existence of fractal-like long-range correlations, indicative of temperature control, in night time rectal temperature (T(rec)) patterns in maturing infants. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We measured T(rec) fluctuations in infants every 4 weeks from 4 to 20 weeks of age and before and after immunization. Long-range correlations in the temperature series were quantified by the correlation exponent, alpha using detrended fluctuation analysis. The effects of maturation, room temperature, and immunization on the strength of correlation were investigated. We found that T(rec) fluctuations exhibit fractal long-range correlations with a mean (SD) alpha of 1.51 (0.11), indicating that T(rec) is regulated in a highly correlated and hence deterministic manner. A significant increase in alpha with age from 1.42 (0.07) at 4 weeks to 1.58 (0.04) at 20 weeks reflects a change in long-range correlation behavior with maturation towards a smoother and more deterministic temperature regulation, potentially due to the decrease in surface area to body weight ratio in the maturing infant. alpha was not associated with mean room temperature or influenced by immunization CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the quantification of long-range correlations using alpha derived from detrended fluctuation analysis is an observer-independent tool which can distinguish developmental stages of night time T(rec) pattern in young infants, reflective of maturation of the autonomic system. Detrended fluctuation analysis may prove useful for characterizing thermoregulation in premature and other infants at risk for life-threatening events.

Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

Serial correlation of extreme midlatitude cyclones observed at the storm track exits is explained by deviations from a Poisson process. To model these deviations, we apply fractional Poisson processes (FPPs) to extreme midlatitude cyclones, which are defined by the 850 hPa relative vorticity of the ERA interim reanalysis during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Extremes are defined by a 99% quantile threshold in the grid-point time series. In general, FPPs are based on long-term memory and lead to non-exponential return time distributions. The return times are described by a Weibull distribution to approximate the Mittag–Leffler function in the FPPs. The Weibull shape parameter yields a dispersion parameter that agrees with results found for midlatitude cyclones. The memory of the FPP, which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis, provides an independent estimate for the shape parameter. Thus, the analysis exhibits a concise framework of the deviation from Poisson statistics (by a dispersion parameter), non-exponential return times and memory (correlation) on the basis of a single parameter. The results have potential implications for the predictability of extreme cyclones.

Predicting asthma control and exacerbations: chronic asthma as a complex dynamic model

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Predicting asthma episodes is notoriously difficult but has potentially significant consequences for the individual, as well as for healthcare services. The purpose of this review is to describe recent insights into the prediction of acute asthma episodes in relation to classical clinical, functional or inflammatory variables, as well as present a new concept for evaluating asthma as a dynamically regulated homeokinetic system. RECENT FINDINGS: Risk prediction for asthma episodes or relapse has been attempted using clinical scoring systems, considerations of environmental factors and lung function, as well as inflammatory and immunological markers in induced sputum or exhaled air, and these are summarized here. We have recently proposed that newer mathematical methods derived from statistical physics may be used to understand the complexity of asthma as a homeokinetic, dynamic system consisting of a network comprising multiple components, and also to assess the risk for future asthma episodes based on fluctuation analysis of long time series of lung function. SUMMARY: Apart from the classical analysis of risk factor and functional parameters, this new approach may be used to assess asthma control and treatment effects in the individual as well as in future research trials.

Complexity of chronic asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: implications for risk assessment, and disease progression and control

Although assessment of asthma control is important to guide treatment, it is difficult since the temporal pattern and risk of exacerbations are often unpredictable. In this Review, we summarise the classic methods to assess control with unidimensional and multidimensional approaches. Next, we show how ideas from the science of complexity can explain the seemingly unpredictable nature of bronchial asthma and emphysema, with implications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We show that fluctuation analysis, a method used in statistical physics, can be used to gain insight into asthma as a dynamic disease of the respiratory system, viewed as a set of interacting subsystems (eg, inflammatory, immunological, and mechanical). The basis of the fluctuation analysis methods is the quantification of the long-term temporal history of lung function parameters. We summarise how this analysis can be used to assess the risk of future asthma episodes, with implications for asthma severity and control both in children and adults.

Late cardiac sodium current can be assessed using automated patch-clamp

The cardiac late Na (+) current is generated by a small fraction of voltage-dependent Na (+) channels that undergo a conformational change to a burst-gating mode, with repeated openings and closures during the action potential (AP) plateau. Its magnitude can be augmented by inactivation-defective mutations, myocardial ischemia, or prolonged exposure to chemical compounds leading to drug-induced (di)-long QT syndrome, and results in an increased susceptibility to cardiac arrhythmias. Using CytoPatch™ 2 automated patch-clamp equipment, we performed whole-cell recordings in HEK293 cells stably expressing human Nav1.5, and measured the late Na (+) component as average current over the last 100 ms of 300 ms depolarizing pulses to -10 mV from a holding potential of -100 mV, with a repetition frequency of 0.33 Hz. Averaged values in different steady-state experimental conditions were further corrected by the subtraction of current average during the application of tetrodotoxin (TTX) 30 μM. We show that ranolazine at 10 and 30 μM in 3 min applications reduced the late Na (+) current to 75.0 ± 2.7% (mean ± SEM, n = 17) and 58.4 ± 3.5% ( n = 18) of initial levels, respectively, while a 5 min application of veratridine 1 μM resulted in a reversible current increase to 269.1 ± 16.1% ( n = 28) of initial values. Using fluctuation analysis, we observed that ranolazine 30 μM decreased mean open probability p from 0.6 to 0.38 without modifying the number of active channels n, while veratridine 1 μM increased n 2.5-fold without changing p. In human iPSC-derived cardiomyocytes, veratridine 1 μM reversibly increased APD90 2.12 ± 0.41-fold (mean ± SEM, n = 6). This effect is attributable to inactivation removal in Nav1.5 channels, since significant inhibitory effects on hERG current were detected at higher concentrations in hERG-expressing HEK293 cells, with a 28.9 ± 6.0% inhibition (mean ± SD, n = 10) with 50 μM veratridine.

The dementia cognitive fluctuation scale, a new psychometric test for clinicians to identify cognitive fluctuations in people with dementia.

OBJECTIVES Cognitive fluctuation (CF) is a common feature of dementia and a core diagnostic symptom for dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). CF remains difficult to accurately and reliably detect clinically. This study aimed to develop a psychometric test that could be used by clinicians to facilitate the identification of CF and improve the recognition and diagnosis of DLB and Parkinson disease, and to improve differential diagnosis of other dementias. METHODS We compiled a 17-item psychometric test for identifying CF and applied this measure in a cross-sectional design. Participants were recruited from the North East of England, and assessments were made in individuals' homes. We recruited people with four subtypes of dementia and a healthy comparison group, and all subjects were administered this pilot scale together with other standard ratings. The psychometric properties of the scale were examined with exploratory factor analysis. We also examined the ability of individual items to identify CF to discriminate between dementia subtypes. The sensitivity and specificity of discriminating items were explored along with validity and reliability analyses. RESULTS Participants comprised 32 comparison subjects, 30 people with Alzheimer disease, 30 with vascular dementia, 29 with DLB, and 32 with dementia associated with Parkinson disease. Four items significantly discriminated between dementia groups and showed good levels of sensitivity (range: 78.6%-80.3%) and specificity (range: 73.9%-79.3%). The scale had very good levels of test-retest (Cronbach's alpha: 0.82) and interrater (0.81) reliabilities. The four items loaded onto three different factors. These items were: 1) marked differences in functioning during the daytime; 2) daytime somnolence; 3) daytime drowsiness; and 4) altered levels of consciousness during the day. CONCLUSIONS We identified four items that provide valid, sensitive, and specific questions for reliably identifying CF and distinguishing the Lewy body dementias from other major causes of dementia (Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia).