A Nonstationary Space-Time Gaussian Process Model for Partially Converged Simulations

In the context of expensive numerical experiments, a promising solution for alleviating the computational costs consists of using partially converged simulations instead of exact solutions. The gain in computational time is at the price of precision in the response. This work addresses the issue of fitting a Gaussian process model to partially converged simulation data for further use in prediction. The main challenge consists of the adequate approximation of the error due to partial convergence, which is correlated in both design variables and time directions. Here, we propose fitting a Gaussian process in the joint space of design parameters and computational time. The model is constructed by building a nonstationary covariance kernel that reflects accurately the actual structure of the error. Practical solutions are proposed for solving parameter estimation issues associated with the proposed model. The method is applied to a computational fluid dynamics test case and shows significant improvement in prediction compared to a classical kriging model.

Long-term consequences of an intensive care unit stay in older critically ill patients: design of a longitudinal study

Background Modern methods in intensive care medicine often enable the survival of older critically ill patients. The short-term outcomes for patients treated in intensive care units (ICUs), such as survival to hospital discharge, are well documented. However, relatively little is known about subsequent long-term outcomes. Pain, anxiety and agitation are important stress factors for many critically ill patients. There are very few studies concerned with pain, anxiety and agitation and the consequences in older critically ill patients. The overall aim of this study is to identify how an ICU stay influences an older person's experiences later in life. More specific, this study has the following objectives: (1) to explore the relationship between pain, anxiety and agitation during ICU stays and experiences of the same symptoms in later life; and (2) to explore the associations between pain, anxiety and agitation experienced during ICU stays and their effect on subsequent health-related quality of life, use of the health care system (readmissions, doctor visits, rehabilitation, medication use), living situation, and survival after discharge and at 6 and 12 months of follow-up. Methods/Design A prospective, longitudinal study will be used for this study. A total of 150 older critically ill patients in the ICU will participate (ICU group). Pain, anxiety, agitation, morbidity, mortality, use of the health care system, and health-related quality of life will be measured at 3 intervals after a baseline assessment. Baseline measurements will be taken 48 hours after ICU admission and one week thereafter. Follow-up measurements will take place 6 months and 12 months after discharge from the ICU. To be able to interpret trends in scores on outcome variables in the ICU group, a comparison group of 150 participants, matched by age and gender, recruited from the Swiss population, will be interviewed at the same intervals as the ICU group. Discussion Little research has focused on long term consequences after ICU admission in older critically ill patients. The present study is specifically focussing on long term consequences of stress factors experienced during ICU admission.

Effects of a divided high loading dose of caffeine on circulatory variables in preterm infants

BACKGROUND: A single high loading dose of 25 mg/kg caffeine has been shown to be effective for the prevention of apnoea, but may result in considerable reductions in blood flow velocity (BFV) in cerebral and intestinal arteries. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of two loading doses of 12.5 mg/kg caffeine given four hours apart on BFV in cerebral and intestinal arteries, left ventricular output (LVO), and plasma caffeine concentrations in preterm infants. DESIGN: Sixteen preterm neonates of <34 weeks gestation were investigated one hour after the first oral dose and one, two, and 20 hours after the second dose by Doppler sonography. RESULTS: The mean (SD) plasma caffeine concentrations were 31 (7) and 29 (7) mg/l at two and 20 hours respectively after the second dose. One hour after the first dose, none of the circulatory variables had changed significantly. One hour after the second caffeine dose, mean BFV in the internal carotid artery and anterior cerebral artery showed significant reductions of 17% and 19% (p = 0.01 and p = 0.003 respectively). BFV in the coeliac artery and superior mesenteric artery, LVO, PCO2, and respiratory rate had not changed significantly. Total vascular resistance, calculated as the ratio of mean blood pressure to LVO, had increased significantly one and two hours after the second dose (p = 0.049 and p = 0.023 respectively). CONCLUSION: A divided high loading dose of 25 mg/kg caffeine given four hours apart had decreased BFV in cerebral arteries after the second dose, whereas BFV in intestinal arteries and LVO were not affected.

Design and establishment of a biobank in a multicenter prospective cohort study of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism (SWITCO65+)

In the field of thrombosis and haemostasis, many preanalytical variables influence the results of coagulation assays and measures to limit potential results variations should be taken. To our knowledge, no paper describing the development and maintenance of a haemostasis biobank has been previously published. Our description of the biobank of the Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism (SWITCO65+) is intended to facilitate the set-up of other biobanks in the field of thrombosis and haemostasis. SWITCO65+ is a multicentre cohort that prospectively enrolled consecutive patients aged ≥65 years with venous thromboembolism at nine Swiss hospitals from 09/2009 to 03/2012. Patients will be followed up until December 2013. The cohort includes a biobank with biological material from each participant taken at baseline and after 12 months of follow-up. Whole blood from all participants is assayed with a standard haematology panel, for which fresh samples are required. Two buffy coat vials, one PAXgene Blood RNA System tube and one EDTA-whole blood sample are also collected at baseline for RNA/DNA extraction. Blood samples are processed and vialed within 1 h of collection and transported in batches to a central laboratory where they are stored in ultra-low temperature archives. All analyses of the same type are performed in the same laboratory in batches. Using multiple core laboratories increased the speed of sample analyses and reduced storage time. After recruiting, processing and analyzing the blood of more than 1,000 patients, we determined that the adopted methods and technologies were fit-for-purpose and robust.

The Design of International Trade Agreements: Introducing a New Dataset

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have been proliferating for the last twenty years. A large literature has studied various aspects of this phenomenon. Until recently, however, many large-N studies have paid only scant attention to variation across PTAs in terms of content and design. Our contribution to this literature is a new dataset on the design of trade agreements that is the most comprehensive in terms of both variables coded and agreements covered. We illustrate the dataset’s usefulness in re-visiting the questions if and to what extent PTAs impact trade flows. The analysis shows that on average PTAs increase trade flows, but that this effect is largely driven by deep agreements. In addition, we provide evidence that provisions that tackle behind-the-border regulation matter for trade flows. The dataset’s contribution is not limited to the PTA literature, however. Broader debates on topics such as institutional design and the legalization of international relations will also benefit from the novel data.

Precision of fit and retention force of cast non-precious-crowns on standard titanium implant-abutment with different design and height

OBJECTIVE The cost-effectiveness of cast nonprecious frameworks has increased their prevalence in cemented implant crowns. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of the design and height of the retentive component of a standard titanium implant abutment on the fit, possible horizontal rotation and retention forces of cast nonprecious alloy crowns prior to cementation. MATERIALS AND METHODS Two abutment designs were examined: Type A with a 6° taper and 8 antirotation planes (Straumann Tissue-Level RN) and Type B with a 7.5° taper and 1 antirotation plane (SICace implant). Both types were analyzed using 60 crowns: 20 with a full abutment height (6 mm), 20 with a medium abutment height (4 mm), and 20 with a minimal (2.5 mm) abutment height. The marginal and internal fit and the degree of possible rotation were evaluated by using polyvinylsiloxane impressions under a light microscope (magnification of ×50). To measure the retention force, a custom force-measuring device was employed. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS one-sided Wilcoxon rank-sum tests with Bonferroni-Holm corrections, Fisher's exact tests, and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. RESULTS Type A exhibited increased marginal gaps (primary end-point: 55 ± 20 μm vs. 138 ± 59 μm, P < 0.001) but less rotation (P < 0.001) than Type B. The internal fit was also better for Type A than for Type B (P < 0.001). The retention force of Type A (2.49 ± 3.2 N) was higher (P = 0.019) than that of Type B (1.27 ± 0.84 N). Reduction in abutment height did not affect the variables observed. CONCLUSION Less-tapered abutments with more antirotation planes provide an increase in the retention force, which confines the horizontal rotation but widens the marginal gaps of the crowns. Thus, casting of nonprecious crowns with Type A abutments may result in clinically unfavorable marginal gaps.

The ARCH Projects: design and rationale (IAASSG 001).

OBJECTIVE A number of factors limit the effectiveness of current aortic arch studies in assessing optimal neuroprotection strategies, including insufficient patient numbers, heterogenous definitions of clinical variables, multiple technical strategies, inadequate reporting of surgical outcomes and a lack of collaborative effort. We have formed an international coalition of centres to provide more robust investigations into this topic. METHODS High-volume aortic arch centres were identified from the literature and contacted for recruitment. A Research Steering Committee of expert arch surgeons was convened to oversee the direction of the research. RESULTS The International Aortic Arch Surgery Study Group has been formed by 41 arch surgeons from 10 countries to better evaluate patient outcomes after aortic arch surgery. Several projects, including the establishment of a multi-institutional retrospective database, randomized controlled trials and a prospectively collected database, are currently underway. CONCLUSIONS Such a collaborative effort will herald a turning point in the surgical management of aortic arch pathologies and will provide better powered analyses to assess the impact of varying surgical techniques on mortality and morbidity, identify predictors for neurological and operative risk, formulate and validate risk predictor models and review long-term survival outcomes and quality-of-life after arch surgery.

Multinomial goodness-of-fit: large sample tests with survey design correction and exact tests for small samples

I introduce the new mgof command to compute distributional tests for discrete (categorical, multinomial) variables. The command supports largesample tests for complex survey designs and exact tests for small samples as well as classic large-sample x2-approximation tests based on Pearson’s X2, the likelihood ratio, or any other statistic from the power-divergence family (Cressie and Read, 1984, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological) 46: 440–464). The complex survey correction is based on the approach by Rao and Scott (1981, Journal of the American Statistical Association 76: 221–230) and parallels the survey design correction used for independence tests in svy: tabulate. mgof computes the exact tests by using Monte Carlo methods or exhaustive enumeration. mgof also provides an exact one-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for discrete data.

Multinomial goodness-of-fit: large sample tests with survey design correction and exact tests for small samples

A new Stata command called -mgof- is introduced. The command is used to compute distributional tests for discrete (categorical, multinomial) variables. Apart from classic large sample $\chi^2$-approximation tests based on Pearson's $X^2$, the likelihood ratio, or any other statistic from the power-divergence family (Cressie and Read 1984), large sample tests for complex survey designs and exact tests for small samples are supported. The complex survey correction is based on the approach by Rao and Scott (1981) and parallels the survey design correction used for independence tests in -svy:tabulate-. The exact tests are computed using Monte Carlo methods or exhaustive enumeration. An exact Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for discrete data is also provided.