Estimating and quantifying uncertainties on level sets using the Vorob'ev expectation and deviation with Gaussian process models

Several methods based on Kriging have recently been proposed for calculating a probability of failure involving costly-to-evaluate functions. A closely related problem is to estimate the set of inputs leading to a response exceeding a given threshold. Now, estimating such a level set—and not solely its volume—and quantifying uncertainties on it are not straightforward. Here we use notions from random set theory to obtain an estimate of the level set, together with a quantification of estimation uncertainty. We give explicit formulae in the Gaussian process set-up and provide a consistency result. We then illustrate how space-filling versus adaptive design strategies may sequentially reduce level set estimation uncertainty.

Searching the hearts of graphene-like molecules for simplicity, sensitivity and logic

If quantum interference patterns in the hearts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) could be isolated and manipulated, then a significant step towards realizing the potential of single-molecule electronics would be achieved. Here we demonstrate experimentally and theoretically that a simple, parameter-free, analytic theory of interference patterns evaluated at the mid-point of the HOMO-LUMO gap (referred to as M-functions) correctly predicts conductance ratios of molecules with pyrene, naphthalene, anthracene, anthanthrene or azulene hearts. M-functions provide new design strategies for identifying molecules with phase-coherent logic functions and enhancing the sensitivity of molecular-scale interferometers.

Learning from failure--rationale and design for a study about discontinuation of randomized trials (DISCO study)

Background Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be discontinued because of apparent harm, benefit, or futility. Other RCTs are discontinued early because of insufficient recruitment. Trial discontinuation has ethical implications, because participants consent on the premise of contributing to new medical knowledge, Research Ethics Committees (RECs) spend considerable effort reviewing study protocols, and limited resources for conducting research are wasted. Currently, little is known regarding the frequency and characteristics of discontinued RCTs. Methods/Design Our aims are, first, to determine the prevalence of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons; second, to determine whether the risk of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons differs between investigator- and industry-initiated RCTs; third, to identify risk factors for RCT discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment; fourth, to determine at what stage RCTs are discontinued; and fifth, to examine the publication history of discontinued RCTs. We are currently assembling a multicenter cohort of RCTs based on protocols approved between 2000 and 2002/3 by 6 RECs in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. We are extracting data on RCT characteristics and planned recruitment for all included protocols. Completion and publication status is determined using information from correspondence between investigators and RECs, publications identified through literature searches, or by contacting the investigators. We will use multivariable regression models to identify risk factors for trial discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment. We aim to include over 1000 RCTs of which an anticipated 150 will have been discontinued due to insufficient recruitment. Discussion Our study will provide insights into the prevalence and characteristics of RCTs that were discontinued. Effective recruitment strategies and the anticipation of problems are key issues in the planning and evaluation of trials by investigators, Clinical Trial Units, RECs and funding agencies. Identification and modification of barriers to successful study completion at an early stage could help to reduce the risk of trial discontinuation, save limited resources, and enable RCTs to better meet their ethical requirements.

Design of custom-shaped vascularized tissues using microtissue spheroids as minimal building units

Tissue engineering strategies are gathering clinical momentum in regenerative medicine and are expected to provide excellent opportunities for therapy for difficult-to-treat human pathologies. Being aware of the requirement to produce larger artificial tissue implants for clinical applications, we used microtissues, produced using gravity-enforced self-assembly of monodispersed primary cells, as minimal tissue units to generate scaffold-free vascularized artificial macrotissues in custom-shaped agarose molds. Mouse myoblast, pig and human articular-derived chondrocytes, and human myofibroblast (HMF)-composed microtissues (microm3 scale) were amalgamated to form coherent macrotissue patches (mm3 scale) of a desired shape. Macrotissues, assembled from the human umbilical vein endothelial cell (HUVEC)-coated HMF microtissues, developed a vascular system, which functionally connected to the chicken embryo's vasculature after implantation. The design of scaffold-free vascularized macrotissues is a first step toward the scale-up and production of artificial tissue implants for future tissue engineering initiatives.

Chemotherapeutic strategies against Trypanosoma brucei: drug targets vs. drug targeting

Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense and T. b. gambiense are the causative agents of sleeping sickness, a fatal disease that affects 36 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, only a handful of clinically useful drugs are available. These drugs suffer from severe side-effects. The situation is further aggravated by the alarming incidence of treatment failures in several sleeping sickness foci, apparently indicating the occurrence of drug-resistant trypanosomes. Because of these reasons, and since vaccination does not appear to be feasible due to the trypanosomes' ever changing coat of variable surface glycoproteins (VSGs), new drugs are needed urgently. The entry of Trypanosoma brucei into the post-genomic age raises hopes for the identification of novel kinds of drug targets and in turn new treatments for sleeping sickness. The pragmatic definition of a drug target is, a protein that is essential for the parasite and does not have homologues in the host. Such proteins are identified by comparing the predicted proteomes of T. brucei and Homo sapiens, then validated by large-scale gene disruption or gene silencing experiments in trypanosomes. Once all proteins that are essential and unique to the parasite are identified, inhibitors may be found by high-throughput screening. However powerful, this functional genomics approach is going to miss a number of attractive targets. Several current, successful parasiticides attack proteins that have close homologues in the human proteome. Drugs like DFMO or pyrimethamine inhibit parasite and host enzymes alike--a therapeutic window is opened only by subtle differences in the regulation of the targets, which cannot be recognized in silico. Working against the post-genomic approach is also the fact that essential proteins tend to be more highly conserved between species than non-essential ones. Here we advocate drug targeting, i.e. uptake or activation of a drug via parasite-specific pathways, as a chemotherapeutic strategy to selectively inhibit enzymes that have equally sensitive counterparts in the host. The T. brucei purine salvage machinery offers opportunities for both metabolic and transport-based targeting: unusual nucleoside and nucleobase permeases may be exploited for selective import, salvage enzymes for selective activation of purine antimetabolites.

Future treatment strategies in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

Over the past five decades, management of acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has evolved substantially. Current treatment encompasses a systematic chain of network activation, antithrombotic drugs, and rapid instigation of mechanical reperfusion, although pharmacoinvasive strategies remain relevant. Secondary prevention with drugs and lifestyle modifications completes the contemporary management package. Despite a tangible improvement in outcomes, STEMI remains a frequent cause of morbidity and mortality, justifying the quest to find new therapeutic avenues. Ways to reduce delays in doing coronary angioplasty after STEMI onset include early recognition of symptoms by patients and prehospital diagnosis by paramedics so that the emergency room can be bypassed in favour of direct admission to the catheterisation laboratory. Mechanical reperfusion can be optimised by improvements to stent design, whereas visualisation of infarct size has been improved by developments in cardiac MRI. Novel treatments to modulate the inflammatory component of atherosclerosis and the vulnerable plaque include use of bioresorbable vascular scaffolds and anti-proliferative drugs. Translational efforts to improve patients' outcomes after STEMI in relation to cardioprotection, cardiac remodelling, and regeneration are also being realised. This is the third in a Series of three papers about ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

How are climate change adaptation strategies put into practice? A case study comparison of natural hazard prevention

Climate change affects increasingly the management of natural resources and has diverse impacts of environmental, social and economic nature. To take this complexity into account, climate change adaptation policies consider the principle of sustainable development. Sustainability is an integrative concept which should insure a long-term and multi-sectoral response to climate change. But the question appears if sustainable development is only retained at the conceptual level or effectively implemented in practice. This paper pursues this question by comparing three projects addressing natural hazard in Swiss mountains. The aim is to investigate how sustainable development is perceived by involved stakeholders and implemented in practice. Two dimensions are thus taken into account: the type of actors participating in these projects and their preferences and interests. The first dimension thus analyzes if diverse actors representing the environmental, economic and social arenas are integrated; the second dimension investigates if different interests and preferences in the sense of sustainability were incorporated in the design and implementation of climate change adaptation. Data were gathered through a standardized survey among all actors involved in the three projects. Preliminary results show that sustainability receives diverse weight and interest in the different cases.

The FReedom from Ischemic Events-New Dimensions for Survival (FRIENDS) registry: design of a prospective cohort study of patients with advanced peripheral artery disease.

BACKGROUND Advanced lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD), whether presenting as acute limb ischemia (ALI) or chronic critical limb ischemia (CLI), is associated with high rates of cardiovascular ischemic events, amputation, and death. Past research has focused on strategies of revascularization, but few data are available that prospectively evaluate the impact of key process of care factors (spanning pre-admission, acute hospitalization, and post-discharge) that might contribute to improving short and long-term health outcomes. METHODS/DESIGN The FRIENDS registry is designed to prospectively evaluate a range of patient and health system care delivery factors that might serve as future targets for efforts to improve limb and systemic outcomes for patients with ALI or CLI. This hypothesis-driven registry was designed to evaluate the contributions of: (i) pre-hospital limb ischemia symptom duration, (ii) use of leg revascularization strategies, and (iii) use of risk-reduction pharmacotherapies, as pre-specified factors that may affect amputation-free survival. Sequential patients would be included at an index "vascular specialist-defined" ALI or CLI episode, and patients excluded only for non-vascular etiologies of limb threat. Data including baseline demographics, functional status, co-morbidities, pre-hospital time segments, and use of medical therapies; hospital-based use of revascularization strategies, time segments, and pharmacotherapies; and rates of systemic ischemic events (e.g., myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization, and death) and limb ischemic events (e.g., hospitalization for revascularization or amputation) will be recorded during a minimum of one year follow-up. DISCUSSION The FRIENDS registry is designed to evaluate the potential impact of key factors that may contribute to adverse outcomes for patients with ALI or CLI. Definition of new "health system-based" therapeutic targets could then become the focus of future interventional clinical trials for individuals with advanced PAD.

Comparative effectiveness of long term drug treatment strategies to prevent asthma exacerbations: network meta-analysis

Objective To determine the comparative effectiveness and safety of current maintenance strategies in preventing exacerbations of asthma. Design Systematic review and network meta-analysis using Bayesian statistics. Data sources Cochrane systematic reviews on chronic asthma, complemented by an updated search when appropriate. Eligibility criteria Trials of adults with asthma randomised to maintenance treatments of at least 24 weeks duration and that reported on asthma exacerbations in full text. Low dose inhaled corticosteroid treatment was the comparator strategy. The primary effectiveness outcome was the rate of severe exacerbations. The secondary outcome was the composite of moderate or severe exacerbations. The rate of withdrawal was analysed as a safety outcome. Results 64 trials with 59 622 patient years of follow-up comparing 15 strategies and placebo were included. For prevention of severe exacerbations, combined inhaled corticosteroids and long acting β agonists as maintenance and reliever treatment and combined inhaled corticosteroids and long acting β agonists in a fixed daily dose performed equally well and were ranked first for effectiveness. The rate ratios compared with low dose inhaled corticosteroids were 0.44 (95% credible interval 0.29 to 0.66) and 0.51 (0.35 to 0.77), respectively. Other combined strategies were not superior to inhaled corticosteroids and all single drug treatments were inferior to single low dose inhaled corticosteroids. Safety was best for conventional best (guideline based) practice and combined maintenance and reliever therapy. Conclusions Strategies with combined inhaled corticosteroids and long acting β agonists are most effective and safe in preventing severe exacerbations of asthma, although some heterogeneity was observed in this network meta-analysis of full text reports.

The influence of sampling design on tree-ring-based quantification of forest growth

Tree-rings offer one of the few possibilities to empirically quantify and reconstruct forest growth dynamics over years to millennia. Contemporaneously with the growing scientific community employing tree-ring parameters, recent research has suggested that commonly applied sampling designs (i.e. how and which trees are selected for dendrochronological sampling) may introduce considerable biases in quantifications of forest responses to environmental change. To date, a systematic assessment of the consequences of sampling design on dendroecological and-climatological conclusions has not yet been performed. Here, we investigate potential biases by sampling a large population of trees and replicating diverse sampling designs. This is achieved by retroactively subsetting the population and specifically testing for biases emerging for climate reconstruction, growth response to climate variability, long-term growth trends, and quantification of forest productivity. We find that commonly applied sampling designs can impart systematic biases of varying magnitude to any type of tree-ring-based investigations, independent of the total number of samples considered. Quantifications of forest growth and productivity are particularly susceptible to biases, whereas growth responses to short-term climate variability are less affected by the choice of sampling design. The world's most frequently applied sampling design, focusing on dominant trees only, can bias absolute growth rates by up to 459% and trends in excess of 200%. Our findings challenge paradigms, where a subset of samples is typically considered to be representative for the entire population. The only two sampling strategies meeting the requirements for all types of investigations are the (i) sampling of all individuals within a fixed area; and (ii) fully randomized selection of trees. This result advertises the consistent implementation of a widely applicable sampling design to simultaneously reduce uncertainties in tree-ring-based quantifications of forest growth and increase the comparability of datasets beyond individual studies, investigators, laboratories, and geographical boundaries.

International variation in GP treatment strategies for subclinical hypothyroidism in older adults: a case-based survey

Background: There is limited evidence about the impact of treatment for subclinical hypothyroidism, especially among older people. Aim: To investigate the variation in GP treatment strategies for older patients with subclinical hypothyroidism depending on country and patient characteristics. Design and setting: Case-based survey of GPs in the Netherlands, Germany, England, Ireland, Switzerland, and New Zealand. Method: The treatment strategy of GPs (treatment yes/no, starting-dose thyroxine) was assessed for eight cases presenting a woman with subclinical hypothyroidism. The cases differed in the patient characteristics of age (70 versus 85 years), vitality status (vital versus vulnerable), and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration (6 versus 15 mU/L). Results: A total of 526 GPs participated (the Netherlands n = 129, Germany n = 61, England n = 22, Ireland n = 21, Switzerland n = 262, New Zealand n = 31; overall response 19%). Across countries, differences in treatment strategy were observed. GPs from the Netherlands (mean treatment percentage 34%), England (40%), and New Zealand (39%) were less inclined to start treatment than GPs in Germany (73%), Ireland (62%), and Switzerland (52%) (P = 0.05). Overall, GPs were less inclined to start treatment in 85-year-old than in 70-year-old females (pooled odds ratio [OR] 0.74 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.63 to 0.87]). Females with a TSH of 15 mU/L were more likely to get treated than those with a TSH of 6 mU/L (pooled OR 9.49 [95% CI = 5.81 to 15.5]). Conclusion: GP treatment strategies of older people with subclinical hypothyroidism vary largely by country and patient characteristics. This variation underlines the need for a new generation of international guidelines based on the outcomes of randomised clinical trials set within primary care

A system design for space-based space surveillance

This paper presents the capabilities of a Space-Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) demonstration mission for Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) based on a micro- satellite platform. The results have been produced in the frame of ESA’s "As sessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance Demonstration Mission (Phase A) " performed by the Airbus DS consortium. Space Surveillance and Tracking is part of Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and covers the detection, tracking and cataloguing of spa ce debris and satellites. Derived SST services comprise a catalogue of these man-made objects, collision warning, detection and characterisation of in-orbit fragmentations, sub-catalogue debris characterisation, etc. The assessment of SBSS in an SST system architecture has shown that both an operational SBSS and also already a well - designed space-based demonstrator can provide substantial performance in terms of surveillance and tracking of beyond - LEO objects. Especially the early deployment of a demonstrator, possible by using standard equipment, could boost initial operating capability and create a self-maintained object catalogue. Unlike classical technology demonstration missions, the primary goal is the demonstration and optimisation of the functional elements in a complex end-to-end chain (mission planning, observation strategies, data acquisition, processing and fusion, etc.) until the final products can be offered to the users. The presented SBSS system concept takes the ESA SST System Requirements (derived within the ESA SSA Preparatory Program) into account and aims at fulfilling some of the SST core requirements in a stand-alone manner. The evaluation of the concept has shown that an according solution can be implemented with low technological effort and risk. The paper presents details of the system concept, candidate micro - satellite platforms, the observation strategy and the results of performance simulations for GEO coverage and cataloguing accuracy

Space-based space surveillance and tracking demonstrator: mission and system design

This paper presents the capabilities of a Space-Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) demonstration mission for Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) based on a micro-satellite platform. The results have been produced in the frame of ESA’s "Assessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance Demonstration Mission" performed by the Airbus Defence and Space consortium. The assessment of SBSS in an SST system architecture has shown that both an operational SBSS and also already a well- designed space-based demonstrator can provide substantial performance in terms of surveillance and tracking of beyond-LEO objects. Especially the early deployment of a demonstrator, possible by using standard equipment, could boost initial operating capability and create a self-maintained object catalogue. Furthermore, unique statistical information about small-size LEO debris (mm size) can be collected in-situ. Unlike classical technology demonstration missions, the primary goal is the demonstration and optimisation of the functional elements in a complex end-to-end chain (mission planning, observation strategies, data acquisition, processing, etc.) until the final products can be offered to the users and with low technological effort and risk. The SBSS system concept takes the ESA SST System Requirements into account and aims at fulfilling SST core requirements in a stand-alone manner. Additionally, requirements for detection and characterisation of small-sizedLEO debris are considered. The paper presents details of the system concept, candidate micro-satellite platforms, the instrument design and the operational modes. Note that the detailed results of performance simulations for space debris coverage and cataloguing accuracy are presented in a separate paper “Capability of a Space-based Space Surveillance System to Detect and Track Objects in GEO, MEO and LEO Orbits” by J. Silha (AIUB) et al., IAC-14, A6, 1.1x25640.

The ARCH Projects: design and rationale (IAASSG 001).

OBJECTIVE A number of factors limit the effectiveness of current aortic arch studies in assessing optimal neuroprotection strategies, including insufficient patient numbers, heterogenous definitions of clinical variables, multiple technical strategies, inadequate reporting of surgical outcomes and a lack of collaborative effort. We have formed an international coalition of centres to provide more robust investigations into this topic. METHODS High-volume aortic arch centres were identified from the literature and contacted for recruitment. A Research Steering Committee of expert arch surgeons was convened to oversee the direction of the research. RESULTS The International Aortic Arch Surgery Study Group has been formed by 41 arch surgeons from 10 countries to better evaluate patient outcomes after aortic arch surgery. Several projects, including the establishment of a multi-institutional retrospective database, randomized controlled trials and a prospectively collected database, are currently underway. CONCLUSIONS Such a collaborative effort will herald a turning point in the surgical management of aortic arch pathologies and will provide better powered analyses to assess the impact of varying surgical techniques on mortality and morbidity, identify predictors for neurological and operative risk, formulate and validate risk predictor models and review long-term survival outcomes and quality-of-life after arch surgery.