FRAX® assessment of osteoporotic fracture probability in Switzerland

A Swiss-specific FRAX model was developed. Patient profiles at increased probability of fracture beyond currently accepted reimbursement thresholds for bone mineral density (BMD) measurement by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and osteoporosis treatment were identified.

Semantic memory involvement in the default mode network: a functional neuroimaging study using independent component analysis

The Default Mode Network (DMN) is a higher order functional neural network that displays activation during passive rest and deactivation during many types of cognitive tasks. Accordingly, the DMN is viewed to represent the neural correlate of internally-generated self-referential cognition. This hypothesis implies that the DMN requires the involvement of cognitive processes, like declarative memory. The present study thus examines the spatial and functional convergence of the DMN and the semantic memory system. Using an active block-design functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) paradigm and Independent Component Analysis (ICA), we trace the DMN and fMRI signal changes evoked by semantic, phonological and perceptual decision tasks upon visually-presented words. Our findings show less deactivation during semantic compared to the two non-semantic tasks for the entire DMN unit and within left-hemispheric DMN regions, i.e., the dorsal medial prefrontal cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex, the retrosplenial cortex, the angular gyrus, the middle temporal gyrus and the anterior temporal region, as well as the right cerebellum. These results demonstrate that well-known semantic regions are spatially and functionally involved in the DMN. The present study further supports the hypothesis of the DMN as an internal mentation system that involves declarative memory functions.

A Bootstrap Test for the Probability of Ruin in the Compound Poisson Risk Process

In this article we propose a bootstrap test for the probability of ruin in the compound Poisson risk process. We adopt the P-value approach, which leads to a more complete assessment of the underlying risk than the probability of ruin alone. We provide second-order accurate P-values for this testing problem and consider both parametric and nonparametric estimators of the individual claim amount distribution. Simulation studies show that the suggested bootstrap P-values are very accurate and outperform their analogues based on the asymptotic normal approximation.

Reduced Cerebral Blood Flow Within the Default-Mode Network and Within Total Gray Matter in Major Depression

The default-mode network (DMN) was shown to have aberrant blood oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) activity in major depressive disorder (MDD). While BOLD is a relative measure of neural activity, cerebral blood flow (CBF) is an absolute measure. Resting-state CBF alterations have been reported in MDD. However, the association of baseline CBF and CBF fluctuations is unclear in MDD. Therefore, the aim was to investigate the CBF within the DMN in MDD, applying a strictly data-driven approach. In 22 MDD patients and 22 matched healthy controls, CBF was acquired using arterial spin labeling (ASL) at rest. A concatenated independent component analysis was performed to identify the DMN within the ASL data. The perfusion of the DMN and its nodes was quantified and compared between groups. The DMN was identified in both groups with high spatial similarity. Absolute CBF values within the DMN were reduced in MDD patients (p<0.001). However, after controlling for whole-brain gray matter CBF and age, the group difference vanished. In patients, depression severity was correlated with reduced perfusion in the DMN in the posterior cingulate cortex and the right inferior parietal lobe. Hypoperfusion within the DMN in MDD is not specific to the DMN. Still, depression severity was linked to DMN node perfusion, supporting a role of the DMN in depression pathobiology. The finding has implications for the interpretation of BOLD functional magnetic resonance imaging data in MDD.

An Urn Model for Cascading Failures on a Lattice

A cascading failure is a failure in a system of interconnected parts, in which the breakdown of one element can lead to the subsequent collapse of the others. The aim of this paper is to introduce a simple combinatorial model for the study of cascading failures. In particular, having in mind particle systems and Markov random fields, we take into consideration a network of interacting urns displaced over a lattice. Every urn is Pólya-like and its reinforcement matrix is not only a function of time (time contagion) but also of the behavior of the neighboring urns (spatial contagion), and of a random component, which can represent either simple fate or the impact of exogenous factors. In this way a non-trivial dependence structure among the urns is built, and it is used to study default avalanches over the lattice. Thanks to its flexibility and its interesting probabilistic properties, the given construction may be used to model different phenomena characterized by cascading failures such as power grids and financial networks.

BOLD correlates of EEG alpha phase-locking and the fMRI default mode network

Phase locking or synchronization of brain areas is a key concept of information processing in the brain. Synchronous oscillations have been observed and investigated extensively in EEG during the past decades. EEG oscillations occur over a wide frequency range. In EEG, a prominent type of oscillations is alpha-band activity, present typically when a subject is awake, but at rest with closed eyes. The spectral power of alpha rhythms has recently been investigated in simultaneous EEG/fMRI recordings, establishing a wide-range cortico-thalamic network. However, spectral power and synchronization are different measures and little is known about the correlations between BOLD effects and EEG synchronization. Interestingly, the fMRI BOLD signal also displays synchronous oscillations across different brain regions. These oscillations delineate so-called resting state networks (RSNs) that resemble the correlation patterns of simultaneous EEG/fMRI recordings. However, the nature of these BOLD oscillations and their relations to EEG activity is still poorly understood. One hypothesis is that the subunits constituting a specific RSN may be coordinated by different EEG rhythms. In this study we report on evidence for this hypothesis. The BOLD correlates of global EEG synchronization (GFS) in the alpha frequency band are located in brain areas involved in specific RSNs, e.g. the 'default mode network'. Furthermore, our results confirm the hypothesis that specific RSNs are organized by long-range synchronization at least in the alpha frequency band. Finally, we could localize specific areas where the GFS BOLD correlates and the associated RSN overlap. Thus, we claim that not only the spectral dynamics of EEG are important, but also their spatio-temporal organization.