Older Breast Cancer Survivors: Geriatric Assessment Domains Are Associated With Poor Tolerance of Treatment Adverse Effects and Predict Mortality Over 7 Years of Follow-Up

Purpose To evaluate geriatric assessment (GA) domains in relation to clinically important outcomes in older breast cancer survivors. Methods Six hundred sixty women diagnosed with primary breast cancer in four US geographic regions (Los Angeles, CA; Minnesota; North Carolina; and Rhode Island) were selected with disease stage I to IIIA, age ≥ 65 years at date of diagnosis, and permission from attending physician to contact. Data were collected over 7 years of follow-up from consenting patients' medical records, telephone interviews, physician questionnaires, and the National Death Index. Outcomes included self-reported treatment tolerance and all-cause mortality. Four GA domains were described by six individual measures, as follows: sociodemographic by adequate finances; clinical by Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and body mass index; function by number of physical function limitations; and psychosocial by the five-item Mental Health Index (MHI5) and Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Survey (MOS-SSS). Associations were evaluated using t tests, χ2 tests, and regression analyses. Results In multivariable regression including age and stage, three measures from two domains (clinical and psychosocial) were associated with poor treatment tolerance; these were CCI ≥ 1 (odds ratio [OR] = 2.49; 95% CI, 1.18 to 5.25), MHI5 score less than 80 (OR = 2.36; 95% CI, 1.15 to 4.86), and MOS-SSS score less than 80 (OR = 3.32; 95% CI, 1.44 to 7.66). Four measures representing all four GA domains predicted mortality; these were inadequate finances (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.89; 95% CI, 1.24 to 2.88; CCI ≥ 1 (HR = 1.38; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.88), functional limitation (HR = 1.40; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.93), and MHI5 score less than 80 (HR = 1.34; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.85). In addition, the proportion of women with these outcomes incrementally increased as the number of GA deficits increased. Conclusion This study provides longitudinal evidence that GA domains are associated with poor treatment tolerance and predict mortality at 7 years of follow-up, independent of age and stage of disease.

Anemia is associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) size and decreased long-term survival after endovascular AAA repair

OBJECTIVE: Anemia is a common comorbid condition in various inflammatory states and an established predictor of mortality in patients with chronic heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and end-stage renal disease. The present study of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) undergoing endovascular repair (EVAR) assessed the relationships between baseline hemoglobin concentration and AAA size, as well as anemia and long-term survival. METHODS: Between March 1994 and November 2006, 711 patients (65 women, mean age 75.8 +/- 7.8 years) underwent elective EVAR. Anemia was defined as a hemoglobin level <13 g/dL in men and <12 g/dL in women. Post-EVAR mean follow-up was 48.3 +/- 32.0 months. Association of hemoglobin level with AAA size was assessed with multiple linear regression. Mortality was determined with use of the internet-based Social Security Death Index and the electronic hospital record. Kaplan-Meier survival curves of anemic and nonanemic patient groups were compared by the log-rank method. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine the influence of anemia on vital status after EVAR. RESULTS: A total of 218/711 (30.7%) of AAA patients undergoing EVAR had anemia at baseline. After adjustment for various risk factors, hemoglobin level was inversely related to maximum AAA diameter (beta: - .144, 95%-CI: -1.482 - .322, P = .002). Post-EVAR survival was 65.5% at 5 years and 44.4% at 10 years. In long-term follow-up, survival was significantly lower in patients with anemia as compared to patients without anemia (P < .0001 by log-rank). Baseline hemoglobin levels were independently related to long-term mortality in multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for various risk factors (adjusted HR: 0.866, 95% CI: .783 to .958, P = .005). Within this model, statin use (adjusted HR: .517, 95% CI: .308 to .868, P = .013) was independently related to long-term survival, whereas baseline AAA diameter (adjusted HR: 1.022, 95% CI: 1.009 to 1.036, P = .001) was an independently associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline hemoglobin concentration is independently associated with AAA size and reduced long-term survival following EVAR. Thus, the presence or absence of anemia offers a potential refinement of existing risk stratification instruments.

Incident malignancies among older long-term breast cancer survivors and an age-matched and site-matched nonbreast cancer comparison group over 10 years of follow-up

BACKGROUND Of the approximately 2.4 million American women with a history of breast cancer, 43% are aged ≥ 65 years and are at risk for developing subsequent malignancies. METHODS Women from 6 geographically diverse sites included 5-year breast cancer survivors (N = 1361) who were diagnosed between 1990 and 1994 at age ≥ 65 years with stage I or II disease and a comparison group of women without breast cancer (N = 1361). Women in the comparison group were age-matched and site-matched to breast cancer survivors on the date of breast cancer diagnosis. Follow-up began 5 years after the index date (survivor diagnosis date or comparison enrollment date) until death, disenrollment, or through 15 years after the index date. Data were collected from medical records and electronic sources (cancer registry, administrative, clinical, National Death Index). Analyses included descriptive statistics, crude incidence rates, and Cox proportional hazards regression models for estimating the risk of incident malignancy and were adjusted for death as a competing risk. RESULTS Survivors and women in the comparison group were similar: >82% were white, 55% had a Charlson Comorbidity Index of 0, and ≥ 73% had a body mass index ≤ 30 kg/m(2) . Of all 306 women (N = 160 in the survivor group, N = 146 in the comparison group) who developed a first incident malignancy during follow-up, the mean time to malignancy was similar (4.37 ± 2.81 years vs 4.03 ± 2.76 years, respectively; P = .28), whereas unadjusted incidence rates were slightly higher in survivors (1882 vs 1620 per 100,000 person years). The adjusted hazard of developing a first incident malignancy was slightly elevated in survivors in relation to women in the comparison group, but it was not statistically significant (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.47). CONCLUSIONS Older women who survived 5 years after an early stage breast cancer diagnosis were not at an elevated risk for developing subsequent incident malignancies up to 15 years after their breast cancer diagnosis.

Health care index score and risk of death following tuberculosis diagnosis in HIV-positive patients

OBJECTIVES: To assess health care utilisation for patients co-infected with TB and HIV (TB-HIV), and to develop a weighted health care index (HCI) score based on commonly used interventions and compare it with patient outcome. METHODS: A total of 1061 HIV patients diagnosed with TB in four regions, Central/Northern, Southern and Eastern Europe and Argentina, between January 2004 and December 2006 were enrolled in the TB-HIV study. A weighted HCI score (range 0–5), based on independent prognostic factors identified in multivariable Cox models and the final score, included performance of TB drug susceptibility testing (DST), an initial TB regimen containing a rifamycin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide, and start of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART). RESULTS: The mean HCI score was highest in Central/Northern Europe (3.2, 95%CI 3.1–3.3) and lowest in Eastern Europe (1.6, 95%CI 1.5–1.7). The cumulative probability of death 1 year after TB diagnosis decreased from 39% (95%CI 31–48) among patients with an HCI score of 0, to 9% (95%CI 6–13) among those with a score of ≥4. In an adjusted Cox model, a 1-unit increase in the HCI score was associated with 27% reduced mortality (relative hazard 0.73, 95%CI 0.64–0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that DST, standard anti-tuberculosis treatment and early cART may improve outcome for TB-HIV patients. The proposed HCI score provides a tool for future research and monitoring of the management of TB-HIV patients. The highest HCI score may serve as a benchmark to assess TB-HIV management, encouraging continuous health care improvement.

The impact of body mass index on the one year outcomes of patients treated by percutaneous coronary intervention with Biolimus- and Sirolimus-eluting stents (from the LEADERS Trial)

The aim of this analysis was to assess the effect of body mass index (BMI) on 1-year outcomes in patients enrolled in a contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention trial comparing a sirolimus-eluting stent with a durable polymer to a biolimus-eluting stent with a biodegradable polymer. A total of 1,707 patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention were randomized to treatment with either biolimus-eluting stents (n = 857) or sirolimus-eluting stents (n = 850). Patients were assigned to 1 of 3 groups according to BMI: normal (<25 kg/m(2)), overweight (25 to 30 kg/m(2)), or obese (>30 kg/m(2)). At 1 year, the incidence of the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and clinically justified target vessel revascularization was assessed. In addition, rates of clinically justified target lesion revascularization and stent thrombosis were assessed. Cox proportional-hazards analysis, adjusted for clinical differences, was used to develop models for 1-year mortality. Forty-five percent of the patients (n = 770) were overweight, 26% (n = 434) were obese, and 29% (n = 497) had normal BMIs. At 1-year follow-up, the cumulative rate of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and clinically justified target vessel revascularization was significantly higher in the obese group (8.7% in normal-weight, 11.3% in overweight, and 14.5% in obese patients, p = 0.01). BMI (hazard ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 2.14, p = 0.04) was an independent predictor of stent thrombosis. Stent type had no impact on the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and clinically justified target vessel revascularization at 1 year in the 3 BMI groups (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.83, p = 0.73). In conclusion, BMI was an independent predictor of major adverse cardiac events at 1-year clinical follow-up. The higher incidence of stent thrombosis in the obese group may suggest the need for a weight-adjusted dose of clopidogrel.

Cardiac troponin testing and the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. The SWIss Venous ThromboEmbolism Registry (SWIVTER)

A low simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI), defined as age ≤80 years and absence of systemic hypotension, tachycardia, hypoxia, cancer, heart failure, and lung disease, identifies low-risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). It is unknown whether cardiac troponin testing improves the prediction of clinical outcomes if the sPESI is not low. In the prospective Swiss Venous Thromboembolism Registry, 369 patients with acute PE and a troponin test (conventional troponin T or I, highly sensitive troponin T) were enrolled from 18 hospitals. A positive test result was defined as a troponin level above the manufacturers assay threshold. Among the 106 (29%) patients with low sPESI, the rate of mortality or PE recurrence at 30 days was 1.0%. Among the 263 (71%) patients with high sPESI, 177 (67%) were troponin-negative and 86 (33%) troponin-positive; the rate of mortality or PE recurrence at 30 days was 4.6% vs. 12.8% (p=0.015), respectively. Overall, risk assessment with a troponin test (hazard ratio [HR] 3.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38-8.37; p=0.008) maintained its prognostic value for mortality or PE recurrence when adjusted for sPESI (HR 5.80, 95%CI 0.76-44.10; p=0.09). The combination of sPESI with a troponin test resulted in a greater area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.81) than sPESI alone (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.57-0.68) (p=0.023). In conclusion, although cardiac troponin testing may not be required in patients with a low sPESI, it adds prognostic value for early death and recurrence for patients with a high sPESI.

Impact of body mass index on the five-year outcome of patients having percutaneous coronary interventions with drug-eluting stents

The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of body mass index (BMI) on clinical outcome of patients treated by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using drug-eluting stents. Patients were stratified according to BMI as normal (<25 kg/m(2)), overweight (25 to 30 kg/m(2)), or obese (>30 kg/m(2)). At 5-year follow-up all-cause death, myocardial infarction, clinically justified target vessel revascularization (TVR), and definite stent thrombosis were assessed. A complete dataset was available in 7,427 patients, of which 45%, 22%, and 33% were classified according to BMI as overweight, obese, and normal, respectively. Mean age of patients was significantly older in those with a normal BMI (p <0.05). Incidence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and dyslipidemia increased as BMI increased (p <0.05). Significantly higher rates of TVR (15.3% vs 12.8%, p = 0.02) and early stent thrombosis (1.5% vs 0.9%, p = 0.04) were observed in the obese compared to the normal BMI group. No significant difference among the 3 BMI groups was observed for the composite of death/myocardial infarction/TVR or for definite stent thrombosis at 5 years, whereas the normal BMI group was at higher risk for all-cause death at 5 years (obese vs normal BMI, hazard ratio 0.74, confidence interval 0.53 to 0.99, p = 0.05; overweight vs normal BMI, hazard ratio 0.73, confidence interval 0.59 to 0.94, p = 0.01) in the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. Age resulted in a linearly dependent covariate with BMI in the all-cause 5-year mortality multivariate model (p = 0.001). In conclusion, the "obesity paradox" observed in 5-year all-cause mortality could be explained by the higher rate of elderly patients in the normal BMI group and the existence of colinearity between BMI and age. However, obese patients had a higher rate of TVR and early stent thrombosis and a higher rate of other risk factors such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia.

Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Obesity and risk of recurrence or death after adjuvant endocrine therapy with letrozole or tamoxifen in the breast international group 1-98 trial

To examine the association of baseline body mass index (BMI) with the risk of recurrence or death in postmenopausal women with early-stage breast cancer receiving adjuvant tamoxifen or letrozole in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 trial at 8.7 years of median follow-up.

Impact of body mass index on the one-year clinical outcome of patients undergoing multivessel revascularization with sirolimus-eluting stents (from the Arterial Revascularization Therapies Study Part II)

The differential safety and efficacy profiles of sirolimus-eluting stents when implanted in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease who have increased body mass indexes (BMIs) compared with those with normal BMIs are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impact of BMI on 1-year outcomes in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease treated with sirolimus-eluting stents as part of the Arterial Revascularization Therapies Study Part II (ARTS II). From February to November 2003, 607 patients were included at 45 centers; 176 patients had normal BMIs (<25 kg/m(2)), 289 were overweight (> or =25 and < or =30 kg/m(2)), and 142 were obese (>30 kg/m(2)). At 30 days, the cumulative incidence of the primary combined end point of death, myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accident, and repeat revascularization (major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events) was 3.4% in the group with normal BMIs, 3.1% in overweight patients, and 2.8% in obese patients (p = 0.76). At 1 year, the cumulative incidence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events was 10.8%, 11.8%, and 7.0% in the normal BMI, overweight, and obese groups, respectively (p = 0.31). In conclusion, BMI had no impact on 1-year clinical outcomes in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease treated with sirolimus-eluting stents in ARTS II.

Elevated AST-to-platelet ratio index is associated with increased all-cause mortality among HIV-infected adults in Zambia.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS We investigated the association between significant liver fibrosis, determined by AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and all-cause mortality among HIV-infected patients prescribed antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Zambia METHODS: Among HIV-infected adults who initiated ART, we categorized baseline APRI scores according to established thresholds for significant hepatic fibrosis (APRI ≥1.5) and cirrhosis (APRI ≥2.0). Using multivariable logistic regression we identified risk factors for elevated APRI including demographic characteristics, body mass index (BMI), HIV clinical and immunologic status, and tuberculosis. In the subset tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), we investigated the association of hepatitis B virus co-infection with APRI score. Using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression we determined the association of elevated APRI with death during ART. RESULTS Among 20,308 adults in the analysis cohort, 1,027 (5.1%) had significant liver fibrosis at ART initiation including 616 (3.0%) with cirrhosis. Risk factors for significant fibrosis or cirrhosis included male sex, BMI <18, WHO clinical stage 3 or 4, CD4+ count <200 cells/mm(3) , and tuberculosis. Among the 237 (1.2%) who were tested, HBsAg-positive patients had four times the odds (adjusted odds ratio, 4.15; 95% CI, 1.71-10.04) of significant fibrosis compared HBsAg-negatives. Both significant fibrosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.41, 95% CI, 1.21-1.64) and cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio 1.57, 95% CI, 1.31-1.89) were associated with increased all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION Liver fibrosis may be a risk factor for mortality during ART among HIV-infected individuals in Africa. APRI is an inexpensive and potentially useful test for liver fibrosis in resource-constrained settings. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The ceramide kinase inhibitor NVP-231 inhibits breast and lung cancer cell proliferation by inducing M phase arrest and subsequent cell death

Background and Purpose Ceramide kinase (CerK) catalyzes the generation of ceramide-1-phosphate which may regulate various cellular functions, including inflammatory reactions and cell growth. Here, we studied the effect of a recently developed CerK inhibitor, NVP-231, on cancer cell proliferation and viability and investigated the role of cell cycle regulators implicated in these responses. Experimental Approach The breast and lung cancer cell lines MCF-7 and NCI-H358 were treated with increasing concentrations of NVP-231 and DNA synthesis, colony formation and cell death were determined. Flow cytometry was performed to analyse cell cycle distribution of cells and Western blot analysis was used to detect changes in cell cycle regulator expression and activation. Key Results In both cell lines, NVP-231 concentration-dependently reduced cell viability, DNA synthesis and colony formation. Moreover it induced apoptosis, as measured by increased DNA fragmentation and caspase-3 and caspase-9 cleavage. Cell cycle analysis revealed that NVP-231 decreased the number of cells in S phase and induced M phase arrest with an increased mitotic index, as determined by increased histone H3 phosphorylation. The effect on the cell cycle was even more pronounced when NVP-231 treatment was combined with staurosporine. Finally, overexpression of CerK protected, whereas down-regulation of CerK with siRNA sensitized, cells for staurosporine-induced apoptosis. Conclusions and Implications Our data demonstrate for the first time a crucial role for CerK in the M phase control in cancer cells and suggest its targeted inhibition, using drugs such as NVP-231, in combination with conventional pro-apoptotic chemotherapy.

The impact of body mass index and gender on the development of infectious complications in polytrauma patients

Purpose The aim was to test the impact of body mass index (BMI) and gender on infectious complications after polytrauma. Methods A total of 651 patients were included in this retrospective study, with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) C16 and age C16 years. The sample was subdivided into three groups: BMI\25 kg/m2, BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and BMI[30 kg/m2, and a female and a male group. Infectious complications were observed for 31 days after admission. Data are given as mean ± standard errors of the means. Analysis of variance, Kruskal–Wallis test, v2 tests, and Pearson’s correlation were used for the analyses and the significance level was set at P\0.05. Results The overall infection rates were 31.0 % in the BMI\25 kg/m2 group, 29.0 % in the BMI 25–30 kg/m2 group, and 24.5 % in the BMI[30 kg/m2 group (P = 0.519). The female patients developed significantly fewer infectious complications than the male patients (26.8 vs. 73.2 %; P\0.001). The incidence of death was significantly decreased according to the BMI group (8.8 vs. 7.2 vs. 1.5 %; P\0.0001) and the female population had a significantly lower mortality rate (4.1 vs. 13.4 %; P\0.0001). Pearson’s correlations between the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score and the corresponding infectious foci were not significant. Conclusion Higher BMI seems to be protective against polytrauma-associated death but not polytrauma-associated infections, and female gender protects against both polytrauma- associated infections and death. Understanding gender-specific immunomodulation could improve the outcome of polytrauma patients.

The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts.

BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of death in the emergency department.

PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.