Potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients: derivation and validation of a prediction model

IMPORTANCE Because effective interventions to reduce hospital readmissions are often expensive to implement, a score to predict potentially avoidable readmissions may help target the patients most likely to benefit. OBJECTIVE To derive and internally validate a prediction model for potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients using administrative and clinical data readily available prior to discharge. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Academic medical center in Boston, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS All patient discharges from any medical services between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions to 3 hospitals of the Partners HealthCare network were identified using a validated computerized algorithm based on administrative data (SQLape). A simple score was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with two-thirds of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-third as the validation cohort. RESULTS Among 10 731 eligible discharges, 2398 discharges (22.3%) were followed by a 30-day readmission, of which 879 (8.5% of all discharges) were identified as potentially avoidable. The prediction score identified 7 independent factors, referred to as the HOSPITAL score: h emoglobin at discharge, discharge from an o ncology service, s odium level at discharge, p rocedure during the index admission, i ndex t ype of admission, number of a dmissions during the last 12 months, and l ength of stay. In the validation set, 26.7% of the patients were classified as high risk, with an estimated potentially avoidable readmission risk of 18.0% (observed, 18.2%). The HOSPITAL score had fair discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.71) and had good calibration. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This simple prediction model identifies before discharge the risk of potentially avoidable 30-day readmission in medical patients. This score has potential to easily identify patients who may need more intensive transitional care interventions.

Multicentre study on peri- and postoperative central venous oxygen saturation in high-risk surgical patients

Introduction Low central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) has been associated with increased risk of postoperative complications in high-risk surgery. Whether this association is centre-specific or more generalisable is not known. The aim of this study was to assess the association between peri- and postoperative ScvO2 and outcome in high-risk surgical patients in a multicentre setting. Methods Three large European university hospitals (two in Finland, one in Switzerland) participated. In 60 patients with intra-abdominal surgery lasting more than 90 minutes, the presence of at least two of Shoemaker's criteria, and ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) class greater than 2, ScvO2 was determined preoperatively and at two hour intervals during the operation until 12 hours postoperatively. Hospital length of stay (LOS) mortality, and predefined postoperative complications were recorded. Results The age of the patients was 72 ± 10 years (mean ± standard deviation), and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) was 32 ± 12. Hospital LOS was 10.5 (8 to 14) days, and 28-day hospital mortality was 10.0%. Preoperative ScvO2 decreased from 77% ± 10% to 70% ± 11% (p < 0.001) immediately after surgery and remained unchanged 12 hours later. A total of 67 postoperative complications were recorded in 32 patients. After multivariate analysis, mean ScvO2 value (odds ratio [OR] 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.50], p = 0.037), hospital LOS (OR 0.75 [95% CI 0.59 to 0.94], p = 0.012), and SAPS II (OR 0.90 [95% CI 0.82 to 0.99], p = 0.029) were independently associated with postoperative complications. The optimal value of mean ScvO2 to discriminate between patients who did or did not develop complications was 73% (sensitivity 72%, specificity 61%). Conclusion Low ScvO2 perioperatively is related to increased risk of postoperative complications in high-risk surgery. This warrants trials with goal-directed therapy using ScvO2 as a target in high-risk surgery patients.

[Community-integrated acute psychiatric care. Options and limitations]

The shift of psychiatric care from the hospital to the community has been accompanied by a reduction of hospital beds and shortened durations of inpatient treatment, but also by an increase in admissions. This evolution may be largely attributed to the prime focus of community mental health institutions on rehabilitation. The continued implementation of reforms in psychiatric care is contingent upon effectively halting the "revolving door phenomenon" by incorporating community-integrated treatment approaches into the care of acutely ill patients. Since the mid-1960s, a series of studies have established the efficacy of two community-integrated modalities for the treatment of acute psychiatric illness, i.e. home-based and day hospital treatment. In general, these approaches not only seem to be as effective as inpatient care for certain groups of patients but also reduce their need of hospitalisation, thereby contributing towards a cost effective, comprehensive psychiatric care system.

The implementation of DRG-based hospital reimbursement in Switzerland: A population-based perspective

Background Switzerland introduces a DRG (Diagnosis Related Groups) based system for hospital financing in 2012 in order to increase efficiency and transparency of Swiss health care. DRG-based hospital reimbursement is not simultaneously realized in all Swiss cantons and several cantons already implemented DRG-based financing irrespective of the national agenda, a setting that provides an opportunity to compare the situation in different cantons. Effects of introducing DRGs anticipated for providers and insurers are relatively well known but it remains less clear what effects DRGs will have on served populations. The objective of the study is therefore to analyze differences of volume and major quality indicators of care between areas with or without DRG-based hospital reimbursement from a population based perspective. Methods Small area analysis of all hospitalizations in acute care hospitals and of all consultations reimbursed by mandatory basic health insurance for physicians in own practice during 2003-2007. Results The results show fewer hospitalizations and a relocation of resources to outpatient care in areas with DRG reimbursement. Overall burden of disease expressed as per capita DRG cost weights was almost identical between the two types of hospital reimbursement and no distinct temporal differences were detected in this respect. But the results show considerably higher 90-day rehospitalization rates in DRG areas. Conclusion The study provides evidence of both desired and harmful effects related to the implementation of DRGs. Systematic monitoring of outcomes and quality of care are therefore essential elements to maintain in the Swiss health system after DRG's are implemented on a nationwide basis in 2012.

Feasibility and safety of same-day home discharge after radiofrequency catheter ablation

Interventional cardiology in a day-case setting might reduce logistic constraints on hospital resources. However, in contrast with coronary angioplasty, few data support the feasibility and safety of radiofrequency catheter ablation (RCA). The aim of this prospective, multicenter cohort study was to evaluate the feasibility and safety of RCA in 1,342 patients (814 men; mean age 57 +/- 17 years) considered eligible for ambulatory RCA, according to specific set of criteria, for common atrial flutter (n = 632), atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia (n = 436), accessory pathways (n = 202), and atrial tachycardia (n = 72). Patients suitable for early discharge (4 to 6 hours after uncomplicated RCA) were scheduled for 1-month follow-up. Predictive factors for delayed complications were studied by multivariate analysis. Of the 1,342 enrolled patients, 1,270 (94.6%) were discharged the same day and followed for 1 month; no deaths occurred, and the readmission rate was 0.79% (95% confidence interval 0.30% to 1.27%). Six patients had significant puncture complications, 2 presented with symptomatic delayed pulmonary embolism, and 2 had new onset of poorly tolerated atrial flutter. None of these complications was life threatening. Multivariate analysis did not identify any significant independent predictors for delayed complications. In conclusion, these data suggest that same-day discharge after uncomplicated RCA for routine supraventricular arrhythmias is safe and may be applicable in clinical practice. This approach is known to be associated with significant patient satisfaction and cost savings and can be considered a first-line option in most patients who undergo routine ablation procedures.

Urgent consultations at the dermatology department of Basel University Hospital, Switzerland: characterisation of patients and setting - a 12-month study with 2,222 patients data and review of the literature.

BACKGROUND Urgent consultations for skin disorders are commonly done in different settings. Scarce data exist about the characteristics of these patients. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to analyse specific characteristics of patients receiving an urgent consultation at a dermatology department in a university hospital. METHODS We prospectively recorded the data of all patients having had an urgent consultation during a period of 12 months. RESULTS We registered 2,222 urgent consultations. The most frequent diagnoses were eczemas (24.8%), dermatomycoses (5.1%) and dermatitis not otherwise specified (4.8%). The most frequent treatments were topical steroids, emollients, topical antibiotics, systemic antihistamines, antibiotics and virostatics. 2.2% of patients were hospitalized, 78.8% asked for a consultation for a disease lasting less than 4 weeks, and 6.9% presented the same day as the skin disease appeared. CONCLUSIONS This study shows the characteristics of patients receiving an urgent dermatologic consultation. It underlines the need for collaboration between dermatologists, other physicians, general practitioners and nurses.

Validation and reclassification of MGAP and GAP in hospital settings using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network.

BACKGROUND Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting. METHODS This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories. RESULTS A total of 79,807 adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low- and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve. CONCLUSION We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level II.

Outcomes after endovascular or open repair for degenerative descending thoracic aortic aneurysm using linked hospital data.

BACKGROUND The population-based effectiveness of thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) versus open surgery for descending thoracic aortic aneurysm remains in doubt. METHODS Patients aged over 50 years, without a history of aortic dissection, undergoing repair of a thoracic aortic aneurysm between 2006 and 2011 were assessed using mortality-linked individual patient data from Hospital Episode Statistics (England). The principal outcomes were 30-day operative mortality, long-term survival (5 years) and aortic-related reinterventions. TEVAR and open repair were compared using crude and multivariable models that adjusted for age and sex. RESULTS Overall, 759 patients underwent thoracic aortic aneurysm repair, mainly for intact aneurysms (618, 81·4 per cent). Median ages of TEVAR and open cohorts were 73 and 71 years respectively (P < 0·001), with more men undergoing TEVAR (P = 0·004). For intact aneurysms, the operative mortality rate was similar for TEVAR and open repair (6·5 versus 7·6 per cent; odds ratio 0·79, 95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 0·41 to 1·49), but the 5-year survival rate was significantly worse after TEVAR (54·2 versus 65·6 per cent; adjusted hazard ratio 1·45, 95 per cent c.i. 1·08 to 1·94). After 5 years, aortic-related mortality was similar in the two groups, but cardiopulmonary mortality was higher after TEVAR. TEVAR was associated with more aortic-related reinterventions (23·1 versus 14·3 per cent; adjusted HR 1·70, 95 per cent c.i. 1·11 to 2·60). There were 141 procedures for ruptured thoracic aneurysm (97 TEVAR, 44 open), with TEVAR showing no significant advantage in terms of operative mortality. CONCLUSION In England, operative mortality for degenerative descending thoracic aneurysm was similar after either TEVAR or open repair. Patients who had TEVAR appeared to have a higher reintervention rate and worse long-term survival, possibly owing to cardiopulmonary morbidity and other selection bias.

Plasma Heme Oxygenase-1 in Patients Resuscitated from out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) is an enzyme induced by hypoxia and reperfusion injury, and is associated with organ dysfunction in critically ill patients. Patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) are subjected to hypoxemia, brain injury, and organ dysfunction. Accordingly, we studied HO-1 among these patients. A total of 143 OHCA patients resuscitated from a shockable initial rhythm and admitted to an ICU were included, with plasma HO-1 measured at ICU admission and at 24 h. We analyzed the associations between plasma HO-1 and time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), 90-day mortality, and 12-month Cerebral Performance Category (CPC). HO-1 plasma concentrations were higher after OHCA compared with controls. HO-1 concentrations at admission and on day 1 associated with ROSC (P = 0.002 to P = 0.003). Admission and day 1 HO-1 plasma concentrations were higher in 90-day non-survivors than in survivors (P = 0.017, 0.026). In addition, poor neurological outcome (CPC 3-5) was associated with higher HO-1 plasma levels at admission (P = 0.024). Admission plasma HO-1 levels had an AUC of 0.623 to predict 90-day mortality and an AUC of 0.611 to predict CPC 3 to 5. In conclusion, we found that higher HO-1 plasma levels are associated with longer ROSC and poor long-term outcome.

Time-differentiated target temperature management after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a multicentre, randomised, parallel-group, assessor-blinded clinical trial (the TTH48 trial): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND The application of therapeutic hypothermia (TH) for 12 to 24 hours following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has been associated with decreased mortality and improved neurological function. However, the optimal duration of cooling is not known. We aimed to investigate whether targeted temperature management (TTM) at 33 ± 1 °C for 48 hours compared to 24 hours results in a better long-term neurological outcome. METHODS The TTH48 trial is an investigator-initiated pragmatic international trial in which patients resuscitated from OHCA are randomised to TTM at 33 ± 1 °C for either 24 or 48 hours. Inclusion criteria are: age older than 17 and below 80 years; presumed cardiac origin of arrest; and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) <8, on admission. The primary outcome is neurological outcome at 6 months using the Cerebral Performance Category score (CPC) by an assessor blinded to treatment allocation and dichotomised to good (CPC 1-2) or poor (CPC 3-5) outcome. Secondary outcomes are: 6-month mortality, incidence of infection, bleeding and organ failure and CPC at hospital discharge, at day 28 and at day 90 following OHCA. Assuming that 50 % of the patients treated for 24 hours will have a poor outcome at 6 months, a study including 350 patients (175/arm) will have 80 % power (with a significance level of 5 %) to detect an absolute 15 % difference in primary outcome between treatment groups. A safety interim analysis was performed after the inclusion of 175 patients. DISCUSSION This is the first randomised trial to investigate the effect of the duration of TTM at 33 ± 1 °C in adult OHCA patients. We anticipate that the results of this trial will add significant knowledge regarding the management of cooling procedures in OHCA patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION NCT01689077.