Cascading climate effects and related ecological consequences during past centuries

The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long record of the great tit (Parus major) population in Switzerland in relation to climate and habitat phenology. Using structural equation analysis, we demonstrate an uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea – Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on fitness-relevant life history traits within great tit populations. We then apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology and productivity on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to 1500 AD. According to the structural equation model, the multi-decadal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial variation in habitat phenology, productivity and consequently, tit population fluctuations with minima during the "Maunder Minimum" (∼ 1650–1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810–1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500, and thus, the impact of the NAO and NCP has contributed to an unprecedented increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model against two independent data series (1970–2000 and 1750–1900) corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large-scale climate conditions substantially affect major life history parameters within a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of centuries.

Characterisation of flash floods in small ungauged mountain basins of Central Spain using an integrated approach

One of the main problems of flood hazard assessment in ungauged or poorly gauged basins is the lack of runoff data. In an attempt to overcome this problem we have combined archival records, dendrogeomorphic time series and instrumental data (daily rainfall and discharge) from four ungauged and poorly gauged mountain basins in Central Spain with the aim of reconstructing and compiling information on 41 flash flood events since the end of the 19th century. Estimation of historical discharge and the incorporation of uncertainty for the at-site and regional flood frequency analysis were performed with an empirical rainfall–runoff assessment as well as stochastic and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. Results for each of the ungauged basins include flood frequency, severity, seasonality and triggers (synoptic meteorological situations). The reconstructed data series clearly demonstrates how uncertainty can be reduced by including historical information, but also points to the considerable influence of different approaches on quantile estimation. This uncertainty should be taken into account when these data are used for flood risk management.

GRAIL gravity field determination using the Celestial Mechanics Approach

The NASA mission GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) inherited its concept from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission to determine the gravity field of the Moon. We present lunar gravity fields based on the data of GRAIL’s primary mission phase. Gravity field recovery is realized in the framework of the Celestial Mechanics Approach, using a development version of the Bernese GNSS Software along with Ka-band range-rate data series as observations and the GNI1B positions provided by NASA JPL as pseudo-observations. By comparing our results with the official level-2 GRAIL gravity field models we show that the lunar gravity field can be recovered with a high quality by adapting the Celestial Mechanics Approach, even when using pre-GRAIL gravity field models as a priori fields and when replacing sophisticated models of non-gravitational accelerations by appropriately spaced pseudo-stochastic pulses (i.e., instantaneous velocity changes). We present and evaluate two lunar gravity field solutions up to degree and order 200 – AIUB-GRL200A and AIUB-GRL200B. While the first solution uses no gravity field information beyond degree 200, the second is obtained by using the official GRAIL field GRGM900C up to degree and order 660 as a priori information. This reduces the omission errors and demonstrates the potential quality of our solution if we resolved the gravity field to higher degree.

Extreme River Floods in Western Switzerland and the Lake of Constance Region in the Period Prior to Instrumental Measurements

The floods that occurred on the Aare and Rhine rivers in May 2015 and the mostly successful handling of this event in terms of flood protection measures are a good reminder of how important it is to comprehend the causes and processes involved in such natural hazards. While the needed data series of gauge measurements and peak discharge calculations reach back to the 19th century, historical records dating further back in time can provide additional and useful information to help understanding extreme flood events and to evaluate prevention measures such as river dams and corrections undertaken prior to instrumental measurements. In my PhD project I will use a wide range of historical sources to assess and quantify past extreme flood events. It is part of the SNF-funded project “Reconstruction of the Genesis, Process and Impact of Major Pre-instrumental Flood Events of Major Swiss Rivers Including a Peak Discharge Quantification” and will cover the research locations Fribourg (Saane R.), Burgdorf (Emme R.), Thun, Bern (both Aare R.), and the Lake of Constance at the locations Lindau, Constance and Rorschach. My main goals are to provide a long time series of quantitative data for extreme flood events, to discuss the occurring changes in these data, and to evaluate the impact of the aforementioned human influences on the drainage system. Extracting information given in account books from the towns of Basel and Solothurn may also enable me to assess the frequency and seasonality of less severe river floods. Finally, historical information will be used for remodeling the historical hydrological regime to homogenize the historical data series to modern day conditions and thus make it comparable to the data provided by instrumental measurements. The method I will apply for processing all information provided by historical sources such as chronicles, newspapers, institutional records, as well as flood marks, paintings and archeological evidence has been developed and successfully applied to the site of Basel by Wetter et al. (2011). They have also shown that data homogenization is possible by reconstructing previous stream flow conditions using historical river profiles and by carefully observing and re-constructing human changes of the river bed and its surroundings. Taken all information into account, peak discharges for past extreme flood events will be calculated with a one-dimensional hydrological model.

Immediate restoration of nonsubmerged titanium implants with a sandblasted and acid-etched surface: five-year results of a prospective case series study using clinical and radiographic data

The aim of this study was to evaluate the survival and success rates of immediately restored implants with sandblasted, large-grit, acid-etched (SLA) surfaces over a period of 5 years. Twenty patients (mean age, 47.3 years) received a total of 21 SLA wide-neck implants in healed mandibular first molar sites after initial periodontal treatment. To be included in the study, the implants had to demonstrate primary stability with an insertion torque value of 35 Ncm. A provisional restoration was fabricated chairside and placed on the day of surgery. Definitive cemented restorations were inserted 8 weeks after surgery. Community Periodontal Index of Treatment Needs (CPITN) indices and the radiographic distance between the implant shoulder and the first visible bone-implant contact (DIB) were measured and compared over the study period. The initial mean CPITN was 3.24, and decreased over the study period to 1.43. At the postoperative radiographic examination, the mean DIB was 1.41 mm for the 21 implants, indicating that part of the machined neck of the implants was placed slightly below the osseous crest. The mean DIB value increased to 1.99 mm at the 5-year examination. This increase proved to be statistically significant (P < .0001). Between the baseline and 5-year examinations, the mean bone crest level loss was 0.58 mm. Success and survival rates of the 21 implants after 5 years of function were 100%. This 5-year study confirms that immediate restoration of mandibular molar wide-neck implants with good primary stability, as noted by insertion torque values of at least 35 Ncm, is a safe and predictable procedure.

Data-driven estimates of the number of clusters in multivariate time series

An important problem in unsupervised data clustering is how to determine the number of clusters. Here we investigate how this can be achieved in an automated way by using interrelation matrices of multivariate time series. Two nonparametric and purely data driven algorithms are expounded and compared. The first exploits the eigenvalue spectra of surrogate data, while the second employs the eigenvector components of the interrelation matrix. Compared to the first algorithm, the second approach is computationally faster and not limited to linear interrelation measures.

A New Approach for Automatic Removal of Movement Artifacts in Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Time Series by Means of Acceleration Data

Abstract: Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) enables the non-invasive measurement of changes in hemodynamics and oxygenation in tissue. Changes in light-coupling due to movement of the subject can cause movement artifacts (MAs) in the recorded signals. Several methods have been developed so far that facilitate the detection and reduction of MAs in the data. However, due to fixed parameter values (e.g., global threshold) none of these methods are perfectly suitable for long-term (i.e., hours) recordings or were not time-effective when applied to large datasets. We aimed to overcome these limitations by automation, i.e., data adaptive thresholding specifically designed for long-term measurements, and by introducing a stable long-term signal reconstruction. Our new technique (“acceleration-based movement artifact reduction algorithm”, AMARA) is based on combining two methods: the “movement artifact reduction algorithm” (MARA, Scholkmann et al. Phys. Meas. 2010, 31, 649–662), and the “accelerometer-based motion artifact removal” (ABAMAR, Virtanen et al. J. Biomed. Opt. 2011, 16, 087005). We describe AMARA in detail and report about successful validation of the algorithm using empirical NIRS data, measured over the prefrontal cortex in adolescents during sleep. In addition, we compared the performance of AMARA to that of MARA and ABAMAR based on validation data.

Partial lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve at the incisive foramen for ridge augmentation in the anterior maxilla prior to placement of dental implants: a retrospective case series evaluating self-reported data and neurosensory testing

The objective of this study was to assess implant therapy after a staged guided bone regeneration procedure in the anterior maxilla by lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve and vessel bundle. Neurosensory function following augmentative procedures and implant placement, assessed using a standardized questionnaire and clinical examination, were the primary outcome variables measured. This retrospective study included patients with a bone defect in the anterior maxilla in need of horizontal and/or vertical ridge augmentation prior to dental implant placement. The surgical sites were allowed to heal for at least 6 months before placement of dental implants. All patients received fixed implant-supported restorations and entered into a tightly scheduled maintenance program. In addition to the maintenance program, patients were recalled for a clinical examination and to fill out a questionnaire to assess any changes in the neurosensory function of the nasopalatine nerve at least 6 months after function. Twenty patients were included in the study from February 2001 to December 2010. They received a total of 51 implants after augmentation of the alveolar crest and lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve. The follow-up examination for questionnaire and neurosensory assessment was scheduled after a mean period of 4.18 years of function. None of the patients examined reported any pain, they did not have less or an altered sensation, and they did not experience a "foreign body" feeling in the area of surgery. Overall, 6 patients out of 20 (30%) showed palatal sensibility alterations of the soft tissues in the region of the maxillary canines and incisors resulting in a risk for a neurosensory change of 0.45 mucosal teeth regions per patient after ridge augmentation with lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve. Regeneration of bone defects in the anterior maxilla by horizontal and/or vertical ridge augmentation and lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve prior to dental implant placement is a predictable surgical technique. Whether or not there were clinically measurable impairments of neurosensory function, the patients did not report them or were not bothered by them.

Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data

The objective of this study was to characterize empirically the association between vaccination coverage and the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in Germany. In order to achieve this we analysed data routinely collected by the Robert Koch Institute, which comprise the weekly number of reported measles cases at all ages as well as estimates of vaccination coverage at the average age of entry into the school system. Coverage levels within each federal state of Germany are incorporated into a multivariate time-series model for infectious disease counts, which captures occasional outbreaks by means of an autoregressive component. The observed incidence pattern of measles for all ages is best described by using the log proportion of unvaccinated school starters in the autoregressive component of the model.

Rapid induction of remission in large vessel vasculitis by IL-6 blockade. A case series

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of IL-6 blockade using tocilizumab in inducing remission of arterial large vessel vasculitides (LVV). METHODS: Five consecutive patients with giant-cell arteritis (GCA) and two with Takayasu’s arteritis (TA) were treated by tocilizumab infusions (8 mg/kg). Tocilizumab was given every other week for the first month and once monthly thereafter. Clinical symptoms of disease activity, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP) level and glucocorticoid (GC) dosage necessary to maintain remission were prospectively assessed. MR angiography was performed to monitor local inflammation. RESULTS: Of the seven patients three were newly diagnosed and four showed GC resistance, i.e. GC could not be lowered to less than 7.5 mg/day. The mean follow-up time was 4.3 months (range 3–7 months). All patients achieved a rapid and complete clinical response and normalisation of the acute phase proteins. Remarkably, prednisone dosage could be reduced within 12 weeks to a mean of 2.5 mg/day (range 0–10 mg/day). No relapse and no drug-related side effects were noted. CONCLUSION: Collectively the data suggest that IL-6 blockade using tocilizumab qualifies as a therapeutic option to induce rapid remission in large vessel vasculitides.

Uniform approach to linear and nonlinear interrelation patterns in multivariate time series

Currently, a variety of linear and nonlinear measures is in use to investigate spatiotemporal interrelation patterns of multivariate time series. Whereas the former are by definition insensitive to nonlinear effects, the latter detect both nonlinear and linear interrelation. In the present contribution we employ a uniform surrogate-based approach, which is capable of disentangling interrelations that significantly exceed random effects and interrelations that significantly exceed linear correlation. The bivariate version of the proposed framework is explored using a simple model allowing for separate tuning of coupling and nonlinearity of interrelation. To demonstrate applicability of the approach to multivariate real-world time series we investigate resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) data of two healthy subjects as well as intracranial electroencephalograms (iEEG) of two epilepsy patients with focal onset seizures. The main findings are that for our rsfMRI data interrelations can be described by linear cross-correlation. Rejection of the null hypothesis of linear iEEG interrelation occurs predominantly for epileptogenic tissue as well as during epileptic seizures.