CODE’s new solar radiation pressure model for GNSS orbit determination

The Empirical CODE Orbit Model (ECOM) of the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), which was developed in the early 1990s, is widely used in the International GNSS Service (IGS) community. For a rather long time, spurious spectral lines are known to exist in geophysical parameters, in particular in the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) and in the estimated geocenter coordinates, which could recently be attributed to the ECOM. These effects grew creepingly with the increasing influence of the GLONASS system in recent years in the CODE analysis, which is based on a rigorous combination of GPS and GLONASS since May 2003. In a first step we show that the problems associated with the ECOM are to the largest extent caused by the GLONASS, which was reaching full deployment by the end of 2011. GPS-only, GLONASS-only, and combined GPS/GLONASS solutions using the observations in the years 2009–2011 of a global network of 92 combined GPS/GLONASS receivers were analyzed for this purpose. In a second step we review direct solar radiation pressure (SRP) models for GNSS satellites. We demonstrate that only even-order short-period harmonic perturbations acting along the direction Sun-satellite occur for GPS and GLONASS satellites, and only odd-order perturbations acting along the direction perpendicular to both, the vector Sun-satellite and the spacecraft’s solar panel axis. Based on this insight we assess in the third step the performance of four candidate orbit models for the future ECOM. The geocenter coordinates, the ERP differences w. r. t. the IERS 08 C04 series of ERPs, the misclosures for the midnight epochs of the daily orbital arcs, and scale parameters of Helmert transformations for station coordinates serve as quality criteria. The old and updated ECOM are validated in addition with satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations and by comparing the orbits to those of the IGS and other analysis centers. Based on all tests, we present a new extended ECOM which substantially reduces the spurious signals in the geocenter coordinate z (by about a factor of 2–6), reduces the orbit misclosures at the day boundaries by about 10 %, slightly improves the consistency of the estimated ERPs with those of the IERS 08 C04 Earth rotation series, and substantially reduces the systematics in the SLR validation of the GNSS orbits.

SOLAR RADIATION PRESSURE AND LOCAL INTERSTELLAR MEDIUM FLOW PARAMETERS FROM INTERSTELLAR BOUNDARY EXPLORER LOW ENERGY HYDROGEN MEASUREMENTS

Neutral hydrogen atoms that travel into the heliosphere from the local interstellar medium (LISM) experience strong effects due to charge exchange and radiation pressure from resonant absorption and re-emission of Lyα. The radiation pressure roughly compensates for the solar gravity. As a result, interstellar hydrogen atoms move along trajectories that are quite different than those of heavier interstellar species such as helium and oxygen, which experience relatively weak radiation pressure. Charge exchange leads to the loss of primary neutrals from the LISM and the addition of new secondary neutrals from the heliosheath. IBEX observations show clear effects of radiation pressure in a large longitudinal shift in the peak of interstellar hydrogen compared with that of interstellar helium. Here, we compare results from the Lee et al. interstellar neutral model with IBEX-Lo hydrogen observations to describe the distribution of hydrogen near 1 AU and provide new estimates of the solar radiation pressure. We find over the period analyzed from 2009 to 2011 that radiation pressure divided by the gravitational force (μ) has increased slightly from μ = 0.94 ± 0.04 in 2009 to μ = 1.01 ± 0.05 in 2011. We have also derived the speed, temperature, source longitude, and latitude of the neutral H atoms and find that these parameters are roughly consistent with those of interstellar He, particularly when considering the filtration effects that act on H in the outer heliosheath. Thus, our analysis shows that over the period from 2009 to 2011, we observe signatures of neutral H consistent with the primary distribution of atoms from the LISM and a radiation pressure that increases in the early rise of solar activity.

The influence of absorbed solar radiation by Saharan dust on hurricane genesis

To date, the radiative impact of dust and the Sahar an air layer (SAL) on North Atlantic hurricane activity is not yet known. According to previous studies, dust stabilizes the atmosphere due to absorption of solar radiation but thus shifts convection to regions more conducive for hurricane genesis. Here we analyze differences in hurricane genesis and frequency from ensemble sensitivity simulations with radiatively active and inactive dust in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM. We investigate dust burden and other hurricane-related variables and determine their influence on disturbances which develop into hurricanes (developing disturbances, DDs) and those which do not (nondeveloping disturbances, NDDs). Dust and the SAL are found to potentially have both inhibiting and supporting influences on background conditions for hurricane genesis. A slight southward shift of DDs is determined when dust is active as well as a significant warming of the SAL, which leads to a strengthening of the vertical circulation associated with the SAL. The dust burden of DDs is smaller in active dust simulations compared to DDs in simulations with inactive dust, while NDDs contain more dust in active dust simulations. However, no significant influence of radiatively active dust on other variables in DDs and NDDs is found. Furthermore, no substantial change in the DD and NDD frequency due to the radiative effects of dust can be detected.

Upconverter materials and upconversion solar-cell devices: simulation and characterization with broad solar spectrum illumination

Upconverter materials and upconverter solar devices were recently investigated with broad-band excitation revealing the great potential of upconversion to enhance the efficiency of solar cell at comparatively low solar concentration factors. In this work first attempts are made to simulate the behavior of the upconverter β-NaYF4 doped with Er3+ under broad-band excitation. An existing model was adapted to account for the lower absorption of broader excitation spectra. While the same trends as observed for the experiments were found in the simulation, the absolute values are fairly different. This makes an upconversion model that specifically considers the line shape function of the ground state absorption indispensable to achieve accurate simulations of upconverter materials and upconverter solar cell devices with broadband excitations, such as the solar radiation.

Influence of oxygen therapy on glucose-lactate metabolism after diffuse brain injury

OBJECT: Severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) imposes a huge metabolic load on brain tissue, which can be summarized initially as a state of hypermetabolism and hyperglycolysis. In experiments O2 consumption has been shown to increase early after trauma, especially in the presence of high lactate levels and forced O2 availability. In recent clinical studies the effect of increasing O2 availability on brain metabolism has been analyzed. By their nature, however, clinical trauma models suffer from a heterogeneous injury distribution. The aim of this study was to analyze, in a standardized diffuse brain injury model, the effect of increasing the fraction of inspired O2 on brain glucose and lactate levels, and to compare this effect with the metabolism of the noninjured sham-operated brain. METHODS: A diffuse severe TBI model developed by Foda and Maramarou, et al., in which a 420-g weight is dropped from a height of 2 m was used in this study. Forty-one male Wistar rats each weighing approximately 300 g were included. Anesthesized rats were monitored by placing a femoral arterial line for blood pressure and blood was drawn for a blood gas analysis. Two time periods were defined: Period A was defined as preinjury and Period B as postinjury. During Period B two levels of fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) were studied: air (FiO2 0.21) and oxygen (FiO2 1). Four groups were studied including sham-operated animals: air-air-sham (AAS); air-O2-sham (AOS); air-air-trauma (AAT); and air-O2-trauma (AOT). In six rats the effect of increasing the FiO2 on serum glucose and lactate was analyzed. During Period B lactate values in the brain determined using microdialysis were significantly lower (p < 0.05) in the AOT group than in the AAT group and glucose values in the brain determined using microdialysis were significantly higher (p < 0.04). No differences were demonstrated in the other groups. Increasing the FiO2 had no significant effect on the serum levels of glucose and lactate. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing the FiO2 influences dialysate glucose and lactate levels in injured brain tissue. Using an FiO2 of 1 influences brain metabolism in such a way that lactate is significantly reduced and glucose significantly increased. No changes in dialysate glucose and lactate values were found in the noninjured brain.

Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

LakeMIP Kivu: evaluating the representation of a large, deep tropical lake by a set of one-dimensional lake models

The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing), as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During the past decades, these lakes experienced fast changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and their future evolution is a major concern. In this study, for the first time a set of one-dimensional lake models are evaluated for Lake Kivu (2.28°S; 28.98°E), East Africa. The unique limnology of this meromictic lake, with the importance of salinity and subsurface springs in a tropical high-altitude climate, presents a worthy challenge to the seven models involved in the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP). Meteorological observations from two automatic weather stations are used to drive the models, whereas a unique dataset, containing over 150 temperature profiles recorded since 2002, is used to assess the model’s performance. Simulations are performed over the freshwater layer only (60 m) and over the average lake depth (240 m), since salinity increases with depth below 60 m in Lake Kivu and some lake models do not account for the influence of salinity upon lake stratification. All models are able to reproduce the mixing seasonality in Lake Kivu, as well as the magnitude and seasonal cycle of the lake enthalpy change. Differences between the models can be ascribed to variations in the treatment of the radiative forcing and the computation of the turbulent heat fluxes. Fluctuations in wind velocity and solar radiation explain inter-annual variability of observed water column temperatures. The good agreement between the deep simulations and the observed meromictic stratification also shows that a subset of models is able to account for the salinity- and geothermal-induced effects upon deep-water stratification. Finally, based on the strengths and weaknesses discerned in this study, an informed choice of a one-dimensional lake model for a given research purpose becomes possible.

Assessment of detectability of neutral interstellar deuterium by IBEX observations

Context. The abundance of deuterium in the interstellar gas in front of the Sun gives insight into the processes of filtration of neutral interstellar species through the heliospheric interface and potentially into the chemical evolution of the Galactic gas. Aims: We investigate the possibility of detection of neutral interstellar deuterium at 1 AU from the Sun by direct sampling by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX). Methods: Using both previous and the most recent determinations of the flow parameters of neutral gas in the local interstellar cloud (LIC) and an observation-based model of solar radiation pressure and ionization in the heliosphere, we simulated the flux of neutral interstellar D at IBEX for the actual measurement conditions. We assessed the number of interstellar D atom counts expected during the first three years of IBEX operation. We also simulated the observations expected during an epoch of high solar activity. In addition, we calculated the expected counts of D atoms from the thin terrestrial water layer covering the IBEX-Lo conversion surface, sputtered by neutral interstellar He atoms. Results: Most D counts registered by IBEX-Lo are expected to come from the water layer, exceeding the interstellar signal by 2 orders of magnitude. However, the sputtering should stop once the Earth leaves the portion of orbit traversed by interstellar He atoms. We identify seasons during the year when mostly the genuine interstellar D atoms are expected in the signal. During the first 3 years of IBEX operations about 2 detectable interstellar D atoms are expected. This number is comparable to the expected number of sputtered D atoms registered during the same time intervals. Conclusions: The most favorable conditions for the detection occur during low solar activity, in an interval including March and April each year. The detection chances could be improved by extending the instrument duty cycle, say, by making observations in the special deuterium mode of IBEX-Lo.

On the evolution of the oceanic component of the IPSL climate models from CMIP3 to CMIP5: A mean state comparison

This study analyses the impact on the oceanic mean state of the evolution of the oceanic component (NEMO) of the climate model developed at Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM), from the version IPSL-CM4, used for third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), to IPSL-CM5A, used for CMIP5. Several modifications have been implemented between these two versions, in particular an interactive coupling with a biogeochemical module, a 3-band model for the penetration of the solar radiation, partial steps at the bottom of the ocean and a set of physical parameterisations to improve the representation of the impact of turbulent and tidal mixing. A set of forced and coupled experiments is used to single out the effect of each of these modifications and more generally the evolution of the oceanic component on the IPSL coupled models family. Major improvements are located in the Southern Ocean, where physical parameterisations such as partial steps and tidal mixing reinforce the barotropic transport of water mass, in particular in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current) and ensure a better representation of Antarctic bottom water masses. However, our analysis highlights that modifications, which substantially improve ocean dynamics in forced configuration, can yield or amplify biases in coupled configuration. In particular, the activation of radiative biophysical coupling between biogeochemical cycle and ocean dynamics results in a cooling of the ocean mean state. This illustrates the difficulty to improve and tune coupled climate models, given the large number of degrees of freedom and the potential compensating effects masking some biases.

Impact of Earth radiation pressure on LAGEOS orbits and on the global scale

The indirect solar radiation pressure caused by reflected or re-emitted radiation by the Earth’s surface is an important non-gravitational force perturbing the orbits of geodetic satellites (Rubincam and Weiss, 1986; Martin and Rubincam, 1996). In the case of LAGEOS this acceleration is of the order of 15% of the direct solar radiation pressure. Therefore, Earth radiation pressure has a non-negligible impact not only on LAGEOS orbits, but also on the SLR-derived terrestrial reference frame. We investigate the impact of the Earth radiation pressure on LAGEOS orbits and on the SLR-derived parameters. Earth radiation pressure has a remarkable impact on the semi-major axes of the LAGEOS satellites, causing a systematic reduction of 1.5 mm. The infrared Earth radiation causes a reduction of about 1.0 mm and the Earth’s reflectivity of 0.5 mm of the LAGEOS’ semi-major axes. The global scale defined by the SLR network is changed by 0.07 ppb, when applying Earth radiation pressure. The resulting station heights differ by 0.5-0.6 mm in the solution with and without Earth radiation pressure. However, when range biases are estimated, the height differences are absorbed by the range biases, and thus, the station heights are not shifted.

Background Ionizing Radiation and the Risk of Childhood Cancer: A Census-Based Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Exposure to medium or high doses of ionizing radiation is a known risk factor for cancer in children. The extent to which low dose radiation from natural sources contributes to the risk of childhood cancer remains unclear. OBJECTIVES In a nationwide census-based cohort study, we investigated whether the incidence of childhood cancer was associated with background radiation from terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays. METHODS Children aged <16 years in the Swiss National Censuses in 1990 and 2000 were included. The follow-up period lasted until 2008 and incident cancer cases were identified from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. A radiation model was used to predict dose rates from terrestrial and cosmic radiation at locations of residence. Cox regression models were used to assess associations between cancer risk and dose rates and cumulative dose since birth. RESULTS Among 2,093,660 children included at census, 1,782 incident cases of cancer were identified including 530 with leukemia, 328 with lymphoma, and 423 with a tumor of the central nervous system (CNS). Hazard ratios for each mSv increase in cumulative dose of external radiation were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.05) for any cancer, 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) for leukemia, 1.01 (0.96, 1.05) for lymphoma, and 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) for CNS tumors. Adjustment for a range of potential confounders had little effect on the results. CONCLUSIONS Our study suggests that background radiation may contribute to the risk of cancer in children including leukemia and CNS tumors.