Representation via Probabilities: Models of Probabilistic Modeling

How do probabilistic models represent their targets and how do they allow us to learn about them? The answer to this question depends on a number of details, in particular on the meaning of the probabilities involved. To classify the options, a minimalist conception of representation (Su\'arez 2004) is adopted: Modelers devise substitutes (``sources'') of their targets and investigate them to infer something about the target. Probabilistic models allow us to infer probabilities about the target from probabilities about the source. This leads to a framework in which we can systematically distinguish between different models of probabilistic modeling. I develop a fully Bayesian view of probabilistic modeling, but I argue that, as an alternative, Bayesian degrees of belief about the target may be derived from ontic probabilities about the source. Remarkably, some accounts of ontic probabilities can avoid problems if they are supposed to apply to sources only.

Mind the gap: Do proportional electoral systems foster a more equal representation of women and men, poor and rich?

Female gender and low income are two markers for groups that have been historically disadvantaged within most societies. The study explores two research questions related to their political representation: (1) ‘Are parties biased towards the ideological preferences of male and rich citizens?’; and (2) ‘Does the proportionality of the electoral system moderate the degree of under-representation of women and poor citizens in the party system?’ A multilevel analysis of survey data from 24 parliamentary democracies indicates that there is some bias against those with low income and, at a much smaller rate, women. This has systemic consequences for the quality of representation, as the preferences of the complementary groups differ. The proportionality of the electoral system influences the degree of under-representation: specifically, larger district magnitudes help in closing the considerable gap between rich and poor.

Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

Taking the multidimensionality of democracy seriously: institutional patterns and the quality of democracy

Democracies come in all shapes and sizes. Which configuration of political institutions produces the highest democratic quality is a notorious debate. The lineup of contenders includes ‘consensus’, ‘Westminster’, and ‘centripetal’ democracy. A trend in the evaluation of the relationship between empirical patterns of democracy and its quality is that the multidimensional nature of both concepts is increasingly taken into account. This article tests the assertion that certain centripetal configurations of proportionality in party systems and government, and unitarism in the remaining state structure, might outperform all other alternatives both in terms of inclusiveness and effectiveness. Analyzing 33 democracies, the results of interactive regression models only partially support this claim. Proportional–unitary democracies have the best track record in terms of representation, but there are little differences in participation, transparency, and government capability compared with other models.

Internal displacement and the Kampala Convention: an opportunity for development actors

According to the African Union (AU), Africa is "a continent disproportionately affected by internal displacement". The African region, with almost 10 million people internally displaced in 22 countries by armed conflict and other forms of violence, hosts more than one third of the 26.4 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) worldwide at the end of 2011. Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Somalia rank globally among the states with the five biggest displacement situations. Even in African countries with smaller figures, very large percentages of people may be in displacement in regions primarily affected by violence. Such violence has multiple causes, including the long-lasting consequences of colonial heritage, outside intervention, crises of identity in multi-ethnic countries and conflicts over resources. Today, political exclusion and inequality between ethnic, regional or religious groups are particularly important drivers of violence.

Die Odyssee der Pygmäen. Eine prekäre Figur auf den neuzeitlichen Spieltischen anthropologischer Differenz

Due to the impacts of postcolonialism, social and cultural anthropology has been dealing intensively with the possibilities and limits of representing "other” human beings and their meaningful worlds. Scholars such as George Marcus, James Clifford or Clifford Geertz have discussed ways of improving anthropological methods of representation without, however, fully raising questions about the quality and validity of the objects represented and the very idea, that they could be “represented”. Thus, despite attempts to purify classical anthropological categories, substantialized presences (“Humans”, “Others”, “Pygmies” etc.), various forms of binary oppositions (us–them, culture–nature, human–animal) as well as certain epistemological modes/ logoi (representation, interpretation) have been rehearsed until today. The research aims to dissect and challenge the metaphysical outputs of the “anthropological machine” (Giorgio Agamben). I intended to solve these from their apparent familiarity as representable identities or differences in order to investigate their genealogy. In Derrida’s and Foucault’s understanding, genealogy becomes manifest mainly in the “blind spots” (Derrida) or “anomalies” (Foucault) between differences, at the borders of identities. As an analytical guideline, the research uses on one concrete metonym for the Derridean blind spot, one incorporation of a Foucauldian Other, namely pygmy narratives within early modern and 19th century imaginings. “Pygmies” have been part of both Western mythology and anthropological reflection since the antiquity and finally became “ethnographical facts” within an evolutionary anthropology in the 19th century during the European exploration of Africa. Throughout this veritable Odyssey, they were mostly precarious “category-jammers” (Timothy Beal), occupying the impossible middle grounds within (proto)anthropological classification. Thus, along with the early modern wild men, enfants sauvages or the apes of proto-primatology, the pygmies of the Homeric myth, as a catalyst for the negotiation of categories, played a decisive role in early modern and 19th century conceptions of the human. Through the precarious Pygmies, concrete socio-historical materializations of Identities (human, European), differences (human–animal etc.), as well as the accompanying logoi which vindicate these as pseudo-entities, appear evident. The research aims to read and write the history of early modern and 19th Century anthropology through one of its many classificatory constituting Others. It thus contributes to a discipline that for a long time has examined concrete systems of knowledge and the genealogy of classification in general. One might call it an “anthropologization” of anthropology.

Ethnic Politics, Regime Support and Conflict in Central and Eastern Europe

Ethnicity and ethnic parties have often been portrayed as a threat to political stability. There is also no shortage of conflicts with an ethnic flavor. Yet, this book challenges the notion that the organization of politics in heterogeneous societies should necessarily overcome ethnicity. Rather, descriptive representation of ethnic groups arguably has potential to increase regime support and reduce conflict. The book studies partisan-descriptive representation of up to 130 ethnic groups in central and eastern European democracies. Ethnic minority parties are found to only run and succeed if they can expect electoral support sufficient to pass the electoral threshold. Conditional on gender and strategies of representation, ethnic representation increases satisfaction with democracy among the minority population. While protest rises given moderate levels of representation, it is reduced once ethnic groups have access to executives. In conclusion, a proportional vision of power-sharing between ethnic groups receives some qualified empirical support.

Personal neglect-a disorder of body representation?

The cognitive mechanisms underlying personal neglect are not well known. One theory postulates that personal neglect is due to a disorder of contralesional body representation. In the present study, we have investigated whether personal neglect is best explained by impairments in the representation of the contralesional side of the body, in particular, or a dysfunction of the mental representation of the contralesional space in general. For this, 22 patients with right hemisphere cerebral lesions (7 with personal neglect, 15 without personal neglect) and 13 healthy controls have been studied using two experimental tasks measuring representation of the body and extrapersonal space. In the tasks, photographs of left and right hands as well as left and right rear-view mirrors presented from the front and the back had to be judged as left or right. Our results show that patients with personal neglect made more errors when asked to judge stimuli of left hands and left rear-view mirrors than either patients without personal neglect or healthy controls. Furthermore, regression analyses indicated that errors in interpreting left hands were the best predictor of personal neglect, while other variables such as extrapersonal neglect, somatosensory or motor impairments, or deficits in left extrapersonal space representation had no predictive value of personal neglect. These findings suggest that deficient body representation is the major mechanism underlying personal neglect.